Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal最新文献

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Endogenous Lemons Markets and Information Cycles 内生柠檬市场与信息周期
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3704474
Wu Cun
{"title":"Endogenous Lemons Markets and Information Cycles","authors":"Wu Cun","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3704474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3704474","url":null,"abstract":"I study a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which information on capital quality is asymmetric and the degree of information asymmetry varies endogenously with the state of the economy, amplifying the shocks. Firms hold capital and borrow to cover their operating expenses. Production is subject to idiosyncratic shocks. When a firm's realized revenue is not enough to cover its debt obligation, that firm has to liquidate capital in a market that is subject to the lemons problem. During production, some of the firm's capital depreciates and becomes ``lemon''. Firms initially have no information on which units of their capital have depreciated, but can acquire private information on their own capital at a cost, which allows them to select low-quality capital to sell when liquidation takes place. Private information can be individually beneficial, but creates the lemons problem, which decreases market liquidity and distorts economic allocations. Adverse shocks trigger additional private information acquisition, exacerbating the lemons problem. The model can account for the business cycle patterns in the U.S., and in particular, the sizable fluctuations of capital reallocation.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125384482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Impact of Effective Corporate Tax Rates on Investment 企业有效税率对投资的影响
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3635511
Thomas Goda, S. Ballesteros
{"title":"The Impact of Effective Corporate Tax Rates on Investment","authors":"Thomas Goda, S. Ballesteros","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3635511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3635511","url":null,"abstract":"There exists an intense debate about the effects of corporate tax cuts on the formation of private capital in the real sector. This paper studies the investment impact of the effective fiscal burden of firms during the period 1995-2014. To this end, in a first step national accounts data is used to calculate backward looking average Effective Corporate Tax Rates (ECTR) for 73 developed and developing countries. In a second step, a dynamic panel approach is employed to estimate the impact of the ECTR on private gross fixed capital formation and foreign direct investment inflows. The obtained results indicate that: (i) ECTR not only tend to be much lower than statutory corporate tax rates, but also have different dynamics over time; and (ii) there exists no clear statistically significant negative relationship between ECTR and private investment. Instead, private capital formation and FDI inflows are rather explained by economic growth, the persistence of investment spending, trade openness, and the quality of institutions. This finding is robust when alternative effective corporate tax rate measures or statutory corporate tax rates are considered","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126757240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demand Risk and Diversification through International Trade 国际贸易中的需求风险和多样化
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-06-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3617802
Federico Esposito
{"title":"Demand Risk and Diversification through International Trade","authors":"Federico Esposito","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3617802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3617802","url":null,"abstract":"I develop a theory of risk diversification through geography. In a general equilibrium trade model with monopolistic competition, characterized by stochastic demand, risk-averse entrepreneurs exploit the spatial correlation of demand across countries to lower the variance of their global sales. I show that the model-consistent measure of demand risk, the “Diversification Index”, depends on the multilateral covariance of a country's demand with all other markets. The model implies that both the probability of entry and the level of trade flows to a market are increasing in the Diversification Index. The firms' risk diversification behavior can generate, upon a trade liberalization, a strong competitive pressure on prices, which in general equilibrium can lead to higher welfare gains from trade than the ones predicted by trade models with risk neutrality. To assess the quantitative relevance of the risk diversification channel, I rely on a panel of domestic and international sales of Portuguese firms. I estimate “risk-augmented” gravity regressions at the firm and country level, and show that the Diversification Index significantly affects trade patterns at the extensive and intensive margins. Once I structurally estimate the model, I document that the risk diversification channel explains 15% of the observed trade patterns, and increases welfare gains from trade by 16% relative to models with risk neutrality. Finally, the quantitative application highlights the role of demand uncertainty in shaping the economic consequences of the recent integration of China in the global economy.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115877300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Capital Intensity of Investments and GDP Dynamics 投资资本密集度与GDP动态
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3639572
Arkadiusz J. Derkacz
{"title":"Capital Intensity of Investments and GDP Dynamics","authors":"Arkadiusz J. Derkacz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3639572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3639572","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this publication is an attempt to prove the impact of the level of capital intensity in the economy on the rate of economic growth. The author has mostly based his reflections on the major issues of M. Kalecki’s economics. These are economic growth rate, production accumulation, and production effect. The analyses were made based on statistical data for two European economies: the British economy and the German economy.<br><br>The proof of the thesis about the impact of capital intensity on the economic growth rate has been based on statistical data concerning the two countries provided by Eurostat. The analyses used major values shaping GDP concerning the definition and dependencies described by M. Kalecki.<br><br>The conducted research and analysis allowed for drawing some interesting conclusions. It turned out that what is vital for the GDP dynamics is not only consumption and economic investments. Another value is the capital intensity of investments concerning total capital. Additionally, the conclusions led to an attempt to make a general recommendation for the economic policy in the scope of encouraging and boosting economic growth. The author also specified a new field for future research which ought to aim at discovering the mechanism of capital intensity optimization concerning production and organizational improvements.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116428968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Influence of Uncertainties on Leverage and Investment Decisions of Non-financial Firms in Indonesia 不确定性对印尼非金融企业杠杆和投资决策的影响
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.34218/IJM.11.5.2020.063
Muhammad Mizani Umaro Aldata, C. Wijaya
{"title":"The Influence of Uncertainties on Leverage and Investment Decisions of Non-financial Firms in Indonesia","authors":"Muhammad Mizani Umaro Aldata, C. Wijaya","doi":"10.34218/IJM.11.5.2020.063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34218/IJM.11.5.2020.063","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to analyse the effect of each uncertainty (firm-specific, market, capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-based, and economic policy uncertainty) on the leverage and investment decisions of non-financial companies in Indonesia. The variables used in this study are leverage, investment, firm-specific uncertainty, market uncertainty, CAPM-based uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, sales growth, cash flow, Tobin’s Q, and firm size. Researchers used panel data on 224 non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2009–2018 with variable related data for at least three consecutive years. This research uses the least-squares research method. The results indicate that the four variables used in this study have a significant influence, in groups of variables, on leverage and investment decisions in each non-financial sector, particularly the manufacturing sector, and will remain constant if the four uncertainties are combined in the same situation.<br>","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"12 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116634421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis 非线性生产网络在COVID-19危机中的应用
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3595680
D. Baqaee, E. Farhi
{"title":"Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"D. Baqaee, E. Farhi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3595680","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3595680","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of negative supply shocks and shocks to the composition of final demand on aggregate output in a disaggregated neoclassical model with multiple sectors, factors, and input-output linkages. We show how nonlinearities associated with complementarities in consumption and production amplify the effect of negative supply shocks by creating supply bottlenecks and disrupting supply chain networks. These nonlinearities are particularly potent when the shocks are more heterogeneous as the worst-affected sectors drag down the other sectors. Nonlinearities are strengthened when changes in preferences lead households to tilt the composition of their demand towards the crippled sectors directly and indirectly through their supply chains. And nonlinearities are further intensified when factors cannot easily be reallocated across sectors to reinforce weak links. A quantitative investigation suggests that nonlinearities may amplify the impact of the Covid-19 shock by between 10%-100%, depending on the horizon of analysis and the exact size of the shocks.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"172 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120854645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 114
Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic 流行病中的宏观经济动态和再分配
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-04-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3584436
Dirk Krueger, H. Uhlig, Taojun Xie
{"title":"Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic","authors":"Dirk Krueger, H. Uhlig, Taojun Xie","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3584436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3584436","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. Extending the theoretical framework proposed by Eichenbaum-Rebelo-Trabandt (2020), we distinguish goods by their degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social (and thus possibly contagious) context. We demonstrate that, within the model the \"Swedish solution\" of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their sectoral behavior on their own can lead to a substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis, avoiding more than 80 of the decline in output and of number of deaths within one year, compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous. For different parameter configurations that capture the additional social distancing and hygiene activities individuals might engage in voluntarily, we show that infections may decline entirely on their own, simply due to the individually rational re-allocation of economic activity: the curve not only just flattens, it gets reversed.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128192937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 174
Capital, Three Dimensionally Speaking 资本,三维的
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3549476
P. Lewin, N. Cachanosky
{"title":"Capital, Three Dimensionally Speaking","authors":"P. Lewin, N. Cachanosky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3549476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3549476","url":null,"abstract":"Much of the mystery attaching to the concept of capital in economics can be avoided by treating capital as a three dimensional entity, the dimensions being quantity, time and value. The literature on the subject is notable for different treatments focusing on just one or two of these dimensions to the neglect of the others. The most neglected dimension in economics is value. Yet notions of capital that lose sight of this dimension are seen to be incoherent. In this paper we undertake to place the three dimensions in sharp relief while explaining the conceptual dangers of such neglect. A consistent attention to the value dimension provides an indispensable bridge to the notions of capital that function in everyday usage and, thus, contribute to an understanding of economic decisions and economic policies that involve the concept of capital.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115783373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Convex Supply Curves 凸供给曲线
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26829
Christoph E. Boehm, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar
{"title":"Convex Supply Curves","authors":"Christoph E. Boehm, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar","doi":"10.3386/w26829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26829","url":null,"abstract":"We provide evidence that industries' supply curves are convex. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a model in which capacity constraints at the firm level generate supply curves that are convex in logs at the industry level. The industry's capacity utilization rate is a sufficient statistic for the supply elasticity. Using data on capacity utilization and three different instruments, we estimate the supply curve and find robust evidence for an economically sizable degree of convexity. The nonlinearity we identify has several macroeconomic implications, including that responses to shocks are state dependent and that the Phillips curve is convex. (JEL D21, E22, E23, E32, E62, L60)","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115410213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Structural Transformation in the Spanish Economy 西班牙经济的结构转型
Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal Pub Date : 2020-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3527418
Omar Rachedi
{"title":"Structural Transformation in the Spanish Economy","authors":"Omar Rachedi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3527418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3527418","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how the variation in sectoral productivities shapes the sectoral composition of the Spanish economy from 1980 to 2015. I first document an asymmetric behavior of sectoral productivities: the productivity of services declines over time, whereas the productivity of manufacturing increases until the 1990s, before slowing down. I feed the path of sectoral productivities observed in the data into a model of structural transformation with two sectors (services and manufacturing) which are connected by an Input-Output matrix. The model reproduces the variation of the gross output services share of the Spanish economy between 1980 and 2015. The model implies that – even absent changes in the trends of sectoral productivities – the annual growth rate of GDP between 2015 and 2050 shrinks by 0.6 percentage points with respect to the average growth rate between 1980 and 2015. Hence, annual GDP growth would decline from 2.3% to 1.7%. If sectoral productivities were to equal the levels observed in the Euro Area between 1980 and 2015, the average growth rate of Spanish GDP between 2015 and 2050 would be 2.1%.","PeriodicalId":126589,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomics: Production & Investment eJournal","volume":"123 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124188494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
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