{"title":"Pricing Stock Options with Stochastic Interest Rate","authors":"M. Abudy, Yehuda Izhakian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1937633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1937633","url":null,"abstract":"This paper constructs a closed-form generalization of the Black-Scholes model for the case where the short-term interest rate follows a stochastic Gaussian process. Capturing this additional source of uncertainty appears to have a considerable effect on option prices. We show that the value of the stock option increases with the volatility of the interest rate and with time to maturity. Our empirical tests support the theoretical model and demonstrate a significant pricing improvement relative to the Black-Scholes model. The magnitude of the improvement is a positive function of the option's time to maturity, the largest improvement being obtained for around-the-money options.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130212488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bailout Uncertainty in a Microfounded General Equilibriummodelofthefinancial System","authors":"A. Cukierman, Yehuda Izhakian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1888967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1888967","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"231 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116394205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"REQUEST: A Query Language for Customizing Recommendations","authors":"G. Adomavicius, A. Tuzhilin, Rong Zheng","doi":"10.1287/isre.1100.0274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.1100.0274","url":null,"abstract":"Initially popularized by Amazon.com, recommendation technologies have become widespread over the past several years. However, the types of recommendations available to the users in these recommender systems are typically determined by the vendor and therefore are not flexible. In this paper, we address this problem by presenting the recommendation query language REQUEST that allows users to customize recommendations by formulating them in the ways satisfying personalized needs of the users. REQUEST is based on the multidimensional model of recommender systems that supports additional contextual dimensions besides traditional User and Item dimensions and also OLAP-type aggregation and filtering capabilities. This paper also presents the recommendation algebra RA, shows how REQUEST recommendations can be mapped into this algebra, and analyzes the expressive power of the query language and the algebra. This paper also shows how users can customize their recommendations using REQUEST queries through a series of examples.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"257 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122659079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prediction in financial markets: The case for small disjuncts","authors":"V. Dhar","doi":"10.1145/1961189.1961191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1961189.1961191","url":null,"abstract":"Predictive models in regression and classification problems typically have a single model that covers most, if not all, cases in the data. At the opposite end of the spectrum is a collection of models, each of which covers a very small subset of the decision space. These are referred to as “small disjuncts.” The trade-offs between the two types of models have been well documented. Single models, especially linear ones, are easy to interpret and explain. In contrast, small disjuncts do not provides as clean or as simple an interpretation of the data, and have been shown by several researchers to be responsible for a disproportionately large number of errors when applied to out-of-sample data. This research provides a counterpoint, demonstrating that a portfolio of “simple” small disjuncts provides a credible model for financial market prediction, a problem with a high degree of noise. A related novel contribution of this article is a simple method for measuring the “yield” of a learning system, which is the percentage of in-sample performance that the learned model can be expected to realize on out-of-sample data. Curiously, such a measure is missing from the literature on regression learning algorithms. Pragmatically, the results suggest that for problems characterized by a high degree of noise and lack of a stable knowledge base it makes sense to reconstruct the portfolio of small rules periodically.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133898077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Inter-Bank Markets: Evidence from the Sub-Prime Crisis","authors":"V. Acharya, Ouarda Merrouche","doi":"10.1093/ROF/RFS022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ROF/RFS022","url":null,"abstract":"We study the liquidity demand of large settlement (first-tier) banks in the UK and its effect on the Sterling Money Markets before and during the sub-prime crisis of 2007-08. Liquidity holdings of large settlement banks experienced on average a 30% increase in the period immediately following 9th August, 2007, the day when money markets froze, igniting the crisis. In the UK, unlike in the US until October 2008, the remuneration of reserves accounts provides strong incentives for banks to park liquidity at the central bank rather than lend in the market. We show that following this structural break, settlement bank liquidity had a precautionary nature in that it rose on calendar days with a large amount of payment activity and for banks with greater credit risk. We establish that the liquidity demand by settlement banks caused overnight inter-bank rates to rise and volumes to decline, an effect virtually absent in the pre-crisis period. This liquidity effect on inter-bank rates occurred in both unsecured borrowing as well as borrowing secured by UK government bonds. Further, using bilateral data we show that the effect was more strongly linked to lender risk than to borrower risk.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126665959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Costly Search and Design","authors":"Heski Bar-Isaac, Guillermo Caruana, V. Cuñat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1435257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1435257","url":null,"abstract":"Firms compete by choosing both a price and a design from a family of designs that can be represented as demand rotations. Consumers engage in costly sequential search among firms. Each time a consumer pays a search cost he observes a new offering. An offering consists of a price quote and a new good, where goods might vary in the extent to which they are good matches for the consumer. In equilibrium, only two design- styles arise: either the most niche where consumers are likely to either love or loathe the product, or the broadest where consumers are likely to have similar valuations. In equilibrium, different firms may simultaneously offer both design-styles. We perform comparative statics on the equilibrium and show that a fall in search costs can lead to higher industry prices and profits and lower consumer surplus. Our analysis is related to discussions of how the internet has led to the prevalence of niche goods and the \"long tail\" phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132953415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Re-Emergence of Distressed Exchanges in Corporate Restructurings","authors":"E. Altman, Brenda Karlin","doi":"10.21314/JCR.2009.087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21314/JCR.2009.087","url":null,"abstract":"In 2008 and 2009, bondholders of ailing companies were affected by a reemergenceof an important corporate restructuring strategy, known as a Distressed Exchange.Fourteen companies in 2008 completed this desperate attempt to avoid a formal bankruptcy filing – about twice as many as any single year in the last 25 years, involving twice as much in dollar amount than in the entire prior history (1984-2007). And, in just the first fourmonths of 2009, nine firms have already completed distressed exchanges. The recovery rate to bondholders participating in distressed exchanges over the last 25 years is significantly higher than recoveries on other, more dramatic types of default – namely payment defaults and bankruptcies. But, there is no guarantee that a distressed exchange will permanently immunize the firm from further distress, with almost 50% of all companies completing distressed exchanges prior to 2008 ultimately filing for bankruptcy.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114607844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Leveraging aggregate ratings for improving predictive performance of recommender systems","authors":"Akhmed Umyarov","doi":"10.1145/1454008.1454064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/1454008.1454064","url":null,"abstract":"One of the key problems in recommender systems is accurate estimation of unknown ratings of individual items for individual users in terms of the previously specified ratings and other characteristics of items and users. In this thesis, we investigate a way of improving estimations of individual ratings using externally provided properties of aggregate ratings for groups of items and users, such as an externally specified average rating of action movies provided by graduate students or externally specified standard deviation of ratings for comedy movies.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130174313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Juan José Miranda Bront, I. Méndez-Díaz, Gustavo J. Vulcano
{"title":"A Column Generation Algorithm for Choice-Based Network Revenue Management","authors":"Juan José Miranda Bront, I. Méndez-Díaz, Gustavo J. Vulcano","doi":"10.1287/opre.1080.0567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0567","url":null,"abstract":"During the past few years, there has been a trend to enrich traditional revenue management models built upon the independent demand paradigm by accounting for customer choice behavior. This extension involves both modeling and computational challenges. One way to describe choice behavior is to assume that each customer belongs to a segment, which is characterized by a consideration set, i.e., a subset of the products provided by the firm that a customer views as options. Customers choose a particular product according to a multinomial-logit criterion, a model widely used in the marketing literature. \u0000 \u0000In this paper, we consider the choice-based, deterministic, linear programming model (CDLP) of Gallego et al. (2004) [Gallego, G., G. Iyengar, R. Phillips, A. Dubey. 2004. Managing flexible products on a network. Technical Report CORC TR-2004-01, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Columbia University, New York], and the follow-up dynamic programming decomposition heuristic of van Ryzin and Liu (2008) [van Ryzin, G. J., Q. Liu. 2008. On the choice-based linear programming model for network revenue management. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management10(2) 288--310]. We focus on the more general version of these models, where customers belong to overlapping segments. To solve the CDLP for real-size networks, we need to develop a column generation algorithm. We prove that the associated column generation subproblem is indeed NP-hard and propose a simple, greedy heuristic to overcome the complexity of an exact algorithm. Our computational results show that the heuristic is quite effective and that the overall approach leads to high-quality, practical solutions.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129968810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Semiparametric Vector MEM","authors":"F. Cipollini, R. Engle, G. Gallo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1282155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1282155","url":null,"abstract":"In financial time series analysis we encounter several instances of non–negative valued processes (volumes, trades, durations, realized volatility, daily range, and so on) which exhibit clustering and can be modeled as the product of a vector of conditionally autoregressive scale factors and a multivariate iid innovation process (vector Multiplicative Error Model). Two novel points are introduced in this paper relative to previous suggestions: a more general specification which sets this vector MEM apart from an equation by equation specification; and the adoption of a GMM-based approach which bypasses the complicated issue of specifying a general multivariate non–negative valued innovation process. A vMEM for volumes, number of trades and realized volatility reveals empirical support for a dynamically interdependent pattern of relationships among the variables on a number of NYSE stocks.","PeriodicalId":124312,"journal":{"name":"New York University Stern School of Business Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125123580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}