{"title":"North-South Imbalances in the International Trade Regime: Why the WTO Does Not Benefit Developing Countries as Much as it Could","authors":"Thomas Bernhardt","doi":"10.7916/D8BK1CS7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7916/D8BK1CS7","url":null,"abstract":"Participation in international trade potentially brings huge benefits to developing countries. However, the design and setup of the international trade regime, most importantly the rules and regulations stipulated in the agreements of the World Trade Organization (WTO), often make it difficult for developing countries to fully tap this potential. As will be argued in this paper using descriptive statistics, some of these agreements lead to imbalanced consequences for developing vs. developed countries. First, one of the key objectives of WTO agreements, namely to enhance member states‟ access to other members‟ markets, has so far been realized in a rather imbalanced fashion, to the detriment of developing countries. Second, various WTO stipulations contribute to reducing the “policy space” of developing countries, thereby hampering their ability to pursue national policies aimed at fostering economic development. A lot of this can be related to asymmetries in the governance structure of the WTO which help explain why international trade negotiations have preserved such imbalanced outcomes. Against this backdrop, this paper advocates for a pro-development international trade regime that facilitates a more sustainable integration of developing countries into the world economy and that supports their efforts to fully reap the benefits that participating in the international division of labor offers to them. Author’s Note Thomas Bernhardt is a second-year Ph.D. student in economics at the New School for Social Research, and a visiting student at Columbia University‟s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). His areas of specialization are development economics and international economics.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"63 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116613685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Political Business Cycles, Partisan Politics and the Effects of Political Events on the Stock Market: Evidence from a Developing Economy","authors":"Bülent Köksal, Ahmet Caliskan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1941704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1941704","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies whether the evidence supports the political business cycle (PBC) theory, partisan theory (PT) and rational partisan theory (RPT) by using stock market data from Turkey, a rapidly growing developing economy. In addition, we examine the impact of political events on the returns and volatility of the stock market. Results indicate that the PBC hypothesis is rejected by the data. We find permanent partisan effects in the conditional variance but not in returns. The conditional volatility of the returns is higher during the periods in which a leftist party or a coalition government is in office. We also find that the stock market returns temporarily decreases (increases) at the beginning of a right-wing (left-wing) government, providing evidence in favor of RPT. Finally, analysis results show that political developments affect both the returns and the volatility of the stock market. The link between macroeconomic fundamentals and the stock market established by the existing literature implies that political developments have significant implications for the real economy.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129840777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting Land Use from Estimated Markov Transitions","authors":"Timothy H. Savage","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1866003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1866003","url":null,"abstract":"The use of Markov processes (or Markov chains) has become widespread in dynamic stochastic modeling. For example, its use is ubiquitous in macroeconomics (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium), finance (dynamic asset pricing), and areas of microeconomics (dynamic programming). As we discuss below, its application in dynamic land use has been more limited, but is, in principle, no less applicable. Using a multi-nominal logit (ML) specification together with serial data on agricultural land use from California, we estimate Markov transition probabilities conditional on number of exogenous factors. Applying so-called “first step” analysis, these transition probabilities are used to forecast the distribution of agricultural crops, which in turn can be used for policy making.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128476964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Serbia: Right-Sizing the Government Wage Bill","authors":"William R. Dillinger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1836463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1836463","url":null,"abstract":"Serbia’s public sector wage bill constitutes a significant share of total government expenditure. In response to the recent fiscal crisis, the Government has frozen wages and hiring. While this approach has succeeded in reducing the wage bill (as a percent of GDP) it is not sustainable over the long term. This report recommends a more durable approach to the wage bill, based on reforms in the system of establishment control and wage setting.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121125252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fuel Subsidies and Unemployment: A CGE Model Applied to Iran","authors":"O. AlShehabi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1821644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1821644","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes the effects of eliminating fuel subsidies on the labour market, focusing on oil producing countries with significantly underpriced fuel commodities. The Islamic Republic of Iran is used as a case study. Two alternative options are analyzed, with the extra revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed back to household as extra income versus directing the revenue into increased investment. A purpose-builit static and dynamic CGE model is deployed in conjunction with a unique Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran. It is shown that the current structure of the economy is heavily biased towards industries that are crude oil and fuel intensive in production. Redistributing the extra revenue back to households would not be enough to overcome these distortions. The labour market suffers under such a scenario, even though Real GDP and household welfare rise. Industries contract due to the Dutch Disease effect and the more expensive inputs, causing overall production and employment to decline. Channelling the extra income into investment, however, improves the labour market’s fortune dramatically in the long run. Firstly, there is increased capital accumulation due to the rise in investment. Secondly, the structure of the Iranian economy shifts. Capital is directed towards non-fuel or crude oil intensive industries, allowing the economy to adjust away from its current reliance on industries dependent on these inputs. Consequently, employment of all types of labour in the economy experience a marked rise.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115971488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marcelo Capello, A. J. Figueras, Sebastián Freille, P. Moncarz
{"title":"The Role of Federal Transfers in Regional Convergence in Human Development Indicators in Argentina","authors":"Marcelo Capello, A. J. Figueras, Sebastián Freille, P. Moncarz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1773080","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1773080","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse regional convergence between Argentine provinces in well-being indicators for the period 1970-2001. More specifically, we examine the role of regional public policy in reducing the development gap between the provinces. We find strong evidence of conditional convergence in well-being indi- cators. However, we find no evidence that redistributive transfers from the federal government to the provinces have had a positive effect on convergence in these indicators. In fact, we find that for some schooling, health and housing measures, the effect of federal transfers on improvement rates might have been contrary to what was expected. Classification JEL: H77; O15.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131690482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Returns from Income Strategies in Rural Poland","authors":"J. Fałkowski, M. Jakubowski, P. Strawiński","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1833216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1833216","url":null,"abstract":"In order to stabilise and improve their income situation, rural households are strongly encouraged to diversify their activities both within and outside the agricultural sector. Often, however, this advice is only moderately pursued. This paper addresses issues of rural household income diversification in the case of Poland. It investigates returns from rural household income strategies using propensity score matching methods and extensive datasets spanning 1998-2008. Results suggest that returns from combining farm and off-farm activities were lower than returns from concentrating on farming or on self-employment outside agriculture. This differential is stable over time although returns from diversification have relatively improved after Poland’s accession to the EU. This is also visible in the fact that since 2006 returns from combining farm and off-farm activities have evened with returns from relying solely on hired off-farm labour, thus smoothing the difference observed before the accession. Further, over the analysed period, households pursuing the diversification strategy performed better than those relying solely on unearned income. Finally, in general, the income in households combining farm and off-farm activities was higher than in those combining two off-farm income sources.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"298 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124241621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Understanding the Crude Oil Price: How Important is the China Factor?","authors":"Xiaoyi Mu, Haichun Ye","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1711569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1711569","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employs monthly data on China's net oil import from January 1997 to June 2010 to assess the role of China's net import in the evolution of the crude oil price. Based on a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, we find that the growth of China's net oil import has no significant impact on monthly oil price changes and there is no Granger causality between the two variables. The historical decomposition indicates that shocks to China's oil demand have only played a small role in the oil price run-up of 2002-2008. We also calculate the price changes implied by China's net oil import growth from a longer-term supply and demand shift perspective.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126775847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How Britain Underdeveloped the West Indies (with Apologies to Walter Rodney)","authors":"V. Storr","doi":"10.5840/CLRJAMES201016111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5840/CLRJAMES201016111","url":null,"abstract":"Britain's colonial adventures in the West Indies lasted almost five centuries. \"Slavery...and the overarching experience of colonialism,\" as De Barros, et al (2006, xi) write, \"have in many ways defined the...Caribbean.\" Similarly, as Thompson (1997: 11) described, the Caribbean is \"the most thoroughly colonized area in the world.\" This raises at least two interesting questions: (a) What's the legacy of British colonialism in the West Indies? and (b) How much did Britain benefit from her imperial exploits in the region? In this article, I will attempt to address the first but will largely ignore the second question.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115182881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Suing Putin: Patterns of Anti-Government Litigation in Russia, 2000-2008","authors":"Alexei Trochev","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1665969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1665969","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines litigation patterns in two categories of court cases, in which Russian government agencies are sued by individuals or companies: lawsuits against unpaid monetary obligations of Russian government agencies, and lawsuits brought by the victims of wrongful actions or decisions of federal government officials. It argues that despite Russia's turn away from democracy and despite their deep cynicism about judiciary, Russians increasingly use courts to fight for their rights and that judges are willing to rule in their favor in many cases. Moreover, the conditions are ripe for the expansion of anti-government litigation, as Putin’s successor, current Russian President Dmitrii Medvedev, attempts to bring more transparency into the judicial system.Proliferation of anti-government litigation in Russia is possible because the ruling regime faces conflicting goals. On the one hand, it wants to make courts “user-friendly” to promote economic growth and social peace. This is why it does not roll back the scope of judicial protection of individual rights and tolerates judicial decisions, which are contrary to the wishes of the President or Prime Minister. Yet Russia’s rulers are unable to improve judicial performance overnight. On the other hand, they encourage government officials to abuse individual rights: extorting bribes, exploiting subordinates and torturing enemies is acceptable as long as officials are loyal to the regime. Yet rulers are unable to capture courts to cover up unlawful government actions. As a result, Russian courts order federal government to pay billions of rubles in compensation to aggrieved individuals and companies.","PeriodicalId":122971,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Economy: Development (Topic)","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122671119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}