Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Loans From My Neighbors: East Asian Commercial Banks, Banking Integration, and Bank Default Risk","authors":"Dung Thuy Thi Nguyen, I. Diaz‐Rainey, Helen Roberts, Minh Le","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3694860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3694860","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated the impact of banking integration on recipient country bank default risk and, in particular, whether the type of banking integration moderates that relationship. Using the system generalized method of moments (GMM), the study found that banking integration lowers bank default risk in recipient countries. The foreign claims that Asian lenders extend and the foreign claims that banks extend via local affiliates primarily drive the impact. These results show that the close proximity of lenders and borrowers or “local” knowledge via an affiliate’s presence alleviates information asymmetry, allowing for effective monitoring and disciplining of the loan relationship. The result supports the fostering of banking integration, promoting deeper intra-regional connectedness throughout East Asia. Where foreign claims come from outside East Asia, policy makers should encourage their presence through local affiliates, as this has an equivalent impact.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128225474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Feeling the Heat: Climate Risks and the Cost of Sovereign Borrowing","authors":"J. Beirne, Nuobu Renzhi, Ulrich Volz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3657114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3657114","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper empirically examines the link between the cost of sovereign borrowing and climate risk for 40 advanced and emerging economies. We find that vulnerability to the direct effects of climate change matters substantially more for sovereign borrowing costs than climate risk resilience. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect on bond yields is progressively higher for countries deemed highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, a set of panel structural VAR models indicate that the reaction of bond yields to climate risk shocks become permanent after around 18 quarters, with high risk economies experiencing the largest permanent effects on yields.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129614307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy and Regulatory Changes for a Successful Startup Revolution: Experiences from the Startup Action Plan in India","authors":"Vijay Kumar Singh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3635930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3635930","url":null,"abstract":"In January 2016, the Government of India launched the Startup India initiative, which has transformed the way in which the markets, potential entrepreneurs, and investors view startups. This transformation included a slew of policy measures intended to promote a startup culture and allow younger population members to take risk with their ideas and become “job creators” rather than “job seekers.” India’s demographic dividend required a suitable channelization of human resources. The Startup Action Plan (SAP) of 2016 proposed to address three key areas for empowering potential startups: <br><br>(i) hand-holding and simplification; <br><br>(ii) funding support and incentives; and <br><br>(iii) incubation and industry–academia partnership. <br><br>Emerging as the third-largest startup ecosystem of the world, India has potential for enormous growth. There have been several policies at all levels of government, industry, and academia to promote a startup culture. However, it is important to examine these initiatives and determine whether they move beyond the subsidy/tax holiday mindset and work on the root corrections necessary for a robust startup ecosystem. There are several issues that require consideration from the policy and regulatory perspective for a successful startup revolution. This paper explores these initiatives that the Government of India has taken and identifies the gaps that require attention from stakeholders. The paper also investigates the major challenges and potential solutions arising from the Indian experience of initiatives in the startup revolution.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125100465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Persistent Current Account Imbalances: Are they Good or Bad for Regional and Global Growth?","authors":"J. Beirne, Nuobu Renzhi, Ulrich Volz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3544629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3544629","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the regional and global growth effects of current account imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—the three largest persistent surplus countries—and the United States and United Kingdom, the two largest persistent deficit countries. Controlling for a set of macroeconomic determinants, we use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework to show that positive shocks to current account balances in the PRC, Germany, and Japan transmit positive regional and global growth effects, particularly in the case of spillovers to regional growth from Japan. As expected, the global growth response is lower in magnitude than the regional growth response. In addition, the extent of the effect is amplified by global value chains, pointing to the significant role played by trade in intermediate goods. For current account deficit countries, the magnitudes of the responses of growth to shocks are much lower on average than in the case of current account surplus countries. We find some marginal positive effects on regional and global growth emanating from a positive shock on the UK current account—i.e., a reduction in the deficit. For the US, a positive shock to its persistent current account deficit marginally drags on global growth, possibly reflecting declining import demand and wealth effects linked to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Our findings have important policy implications at the global level, particularly in light of the re-emergence of discussions on global imbalances in recent years.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126340745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How to Avoid Household Debt Overhang? An Analytical Framework and Analysis for India","authors":"N. Yoshino, Prachi Gupta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3541474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3541474","url":null,"abstract":"We develop an analytical framework using the household utility maximization approach to model stability conditions to avoid household debt overhang. Our theoretical framework suggests that household debt stability is a function of five factors, namely the rate of interest, period of lending, income growth, loan-to-income ratio, and households’ disutility from borrowing parameter. Further, we apply our analytical model to the case of India and estimate household debt stability conditions for Indian households under various scenarios to estimate the ceiling borrowing ratios borrowing below which households can avoid the risk of running into a debt overhang problem.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120947030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Speed and Socioeconomic Development: Influence of Indian Railways","authors":"N. Ravi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3483322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3483322","url":null,"abstract":"Indian Railways is a little over a century and a half old. Its development over the decades has been gradual. It has been and continues to be the “lifeline for the socioeconomic growth of India,” by connecting human settlements across the country and simultaneously transporting various resources to centers of production and markets. Nationalized in 1951, Indian Railways is among the largest rail networks in Asia and the world’s second largest network operated under a single management. We will feature its growth over the past 7 decades. Indian Railways has always aimed to provide safety during travel. The rate of its development as a service organization has been modest, with two forces, one originating from political considerations balanced by another based on engineering competence. High-speed rail travel emerged in Indian Railways in 1969, when the first high-speed limited-stop train service was introduced between New Delhi and Kolkata. We will trace the origins of high-speed travel on Indian Railways and attempt to show how it has indeed helped passengers reach their destinations in less time. Any direct correlation between high-speed train travel and the growth of the economy, the effect on the environment and society, while significant over the long term, would be difficult to estimate empirically. We will show, in terms of policy flow and implications, how Indian railways has been unwavering in providing sustenance for economic growth. One common theme in these decades has been the inexorable drive to acquire and develop technology to ensure faster, inexpensive, and safer travel for all users. The increase in speed of travel has been steady, progressive, and not an attempt at creating records. Over the years, high-speed trains have enabled better quality of life for professionals in India, especially in the age of globalization. However, the effect of this has been generally restricted to medium distance and suburban travel. In this scenario, we will detail the steps that have to be taken by the provider and the user for making future high-speed rail travel profitable, productive, comfortable, and dependable.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"37 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120925797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Performance Differential Between Private and State-Owned Enterprises: An Analysis of Profitability and Leverage","authors":"Nguyet Thi Minh Phi, Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, Anh Tu Chuc, N. Yoshino, C. Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3470070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3470070","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate empirically the relationship between ownership identity and the performance of firms in terms of profitability and solvency. Using cross-sectional data covering over 25,000 firms worldwide and by employing various empirical methods, we find robust support for the inferior performance of government enterprises over privately owned firms. Specifically, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) tend to be less profitable than privately owned enterprises. However, they appear to be more dependent on debt for their financial needs and are, thus, better leveraged. Additionally, SOEs are more labor intensive and have higher labor costs. Thus, evidence from this study could be interpreted to mean that privatization could improve the performance of public firms. However, a study over a longer period is needed before these results can be considered conclusive.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125173679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quality Infrastructure Investment: Ways to Increase the Rate of Return for Infrastructure Investments","authors":"N. Yoshino, N. Hendriyetty, Saloni Lakhia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3398229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3398229","url":null,"abstract":"High-quality infrastructure will boost regional economic development and reduce poverty and income inequality. The spill-over effects created by this high-quality infrastructure will be seen in the form of an increase in gross domestic product and tax revenue in the region. These positive effects can be utilized to address the gap between infrastructure demand and financing. Private-public partnerships (PPP) in infrastructure have been advocated for many years. However, PPP partners, such as insurance and pension funds, have been discouraged by the low rate of return from investing in quality infrastructure projects. This is because the main sources of revenue from infrastructure investment are user charges. \u0000 \u0000This paper aims to provide a new mechanism for government and investors to utilize the spill-over effects of infrastructure projects and share them with infrastructure investors for a better rate of return in order to compensate their risk. This mechanism will motivate stakeholders to design infrastructure with high economic benefits and encourage instruments, such as city infrastructure concepts, hometown investment trusts, land trusts, and the improvement of education and digital literacy, to ensure the infrastructure projects will create positive spill-overs to the region. Hometown investment trust funds can provide financing for start-up businesses along with the new infrastructure investments. Land trusts will solve the issue of owners not wanting to sell their land by giving them the option to keep it and lease the land to infrastructure companies. The landowners can receive long-term rent income, for example for 99 years. In this way, land trusts will smooth the use of land and transfer the usage rights to infrastructure companies.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125136750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Labor Share of Income around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset","authors":"Marta Guerriero","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3358006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3358006","url":null,"abstract":"This study provides an evaluation of five different methodologies of estimation commonly used in the labor share literature and propose a new measurement. Theglobal dataset of the labor income share across 151 economies is compiled—both developing and developed—for all or part of the period 1970–2015. Results show that our suggested indicator is correlated to the other five measures but it also retains unique information. Contrary to the traditional assumption of stable factor shares, it documents the existence of considerable heterogeneity across economies and variability over time. Specifically, there has been a general decline in the labor share around the world, in particular from the mid-1980s onwards.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122809902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-product Firms, Tariff Liberalization, and Product Churning in Vietnamese Manufacturing","authors":"H. Doan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3357432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3357432","url":null,"abstract":"Utilizing firm-level data during 2010–2015, we examine the frequency and characteristics of multi-product firms in Vietnamese manufacturing. Our major findings are as follows. First, multi-product firms are larger, more capital-intensive, more productive, and are more likely to export. Second, multi-product firms are active in the market. Approximately 60% of firms adjust their product scope within a 6-year period. Third, the contribution of firms’ product extensive margin to aggregate output growth is limited due to the prevalence of product dropping, which offsets the positive impact of product adding. Much of output growth during the period is thus generated by the intensive margin. Turning to the link between tariff reduction and product shedding, we do not detect any significant impact. However, we find that exporters play an important role in product adding, which suggests that they may contribute to aggregate growth through the channeling of product scope expansion. Contrary to our expectations, our analysis offers limited support for the heterogeneity of product turnover across ownership types. While we find that state-owned enterprises are more likely to spread economic activities across products and industries, there is little difference in terms of product churning among foreign direct investment, state-owned enterprises, and the domestic private sector.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129798163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}