Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Transpacific Rebalancing","authors":"Willem Thorbecke, Ginalyn Komoto","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1678423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1678423","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the role that exchange rate changes can play in rebalancing transpacific trade. It presents evidence from a gravity model indicating that the exports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the United States (US) are a key outlier in the global economy and that imbalances between the PRC and the US have remained large during the financial crisis that began in September 2008. It then reports that an appreciation of the yuan against the dollar would be required to rebalance bilateral trade between the US and the PRC. In the case of multilateral trade between the US and the rest of the world, on the other hand, the evidence indicates that a depreciation of the dollar would not substantially reduce the US global trade deficit. In the case of Asia’s exports, results presented here and elsewhere indicate that: (i) sophisticated exports produced within regional production networks depend on exchange rates throughout the region; (ii) labor-intensive exports from developing Asian countries are strongly influenced by each country’s own exchange rate; (iii) developing Asian countries compete extensively with each other in exports to third markets; (iv) a currency appreciation in developing Asia would increase capital and consumption goods imports; and (v) exchange rate volatility deters parts and components trade in Asia. These findings imply that Asia and the rest of the world would benefit if East Asian currencies could appreciate together against external currencies while maintaining relative currency stability within the region.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133389814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends in National and Regional Investors Financing Crossborder Infrastructure Projects in Asia","authors":"P. De, Muthi Samudram, S. Moholkar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1671464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1671464","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines a range of cross-border infrastructure development issues related to the Asian countries. Despite active pursuit of private investment in infrastructure by most developing countries in Asia and a growing number of success stories, the pace of such investment remains slow. Participation by the private sector in infrastructure development has been mixed. While there has been moderate progress in national infrastructure development by the private sector, progress is rather limited in the case of development of cross-border infrastructure in Asia. This study documents that Asian countries have attracted higher private sector investment for the development of national infrastructure projects such as seaports and airports as compared to cross-border infrastructure projects. The rising trend among private investors in infrastructure projects indicates a decline of investments by developed country investors. One of the findings of this study is that cross-border energy projects have received greater private sector investment globally as compared to transport, telecommunication, and water projects. In the context of Asia, too, energy sector projects still dominate the investment scenario. By considering all modes of financing, this study finds that cross-border infrastructure financing in Asia has witnessed an upward trend in the last decade and a half. Aside from hydropower projects in Bhutan, cross-border infrastructure in Asia is pursued through public-private partnerships. Interestingly, these few cross-border projects in Asia have limited private sector investors, compared to other regions, despite a wide base of local investors in Asia. This paper also shows that public sector investment drives cross-border energy and transportation projects in Asia, whereas private sector investments have picked up the pace only recently, specifically after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This study recommends that given the huge infrastructure investment needs of the region and insufficient government resources, the role of the private sector and public-private partnerships in enhancing infrastructure facilities in Asia is very crucial. A review of select case studies of cross-border infrastructure projects clearly indicates that the major reasons for slow progress of regional infrastructure development by private sector stem from both economic to non-economic issues that need to be addressed in order to promote seamless Asia.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"520 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134214760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk-Return Efficiency, Financial Distress Risk, and Bank Financial Strength Ratings","authors":"Chang-i Hua, Li-gang Liu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1658347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1658347","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether there is any consistency between banks' financial strength ratings (bank rating) and their risk-return profiles. It is expected that banks with high ratings tend to earn high expected returns for the risks they assume and thereby have a low probability of experiencing financial distress. Bank ratings, a measure of a bank's intrinsic safety and soundness, should therefore be able to capture the bank's ability to manage financial distress while achieving risk-return efficiency. We first estimate the expected returns, risks, and financial distress risk proxy (the inverse z-score), then apply the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to obtain the risk-return efficiency score for each bank, and finally conduct ordered logit regressions of bank ratings on estimated risks, risk-return efficiency, and the inverse z-score by controlling for other variables related to each bank's operating environment. We find that banks with a higher efficiency score on average tend to obtain favorable ratings. It appears that rating agencies generally encourage banks to trade expected returns for reduced risks, suggesting that these ratings are generally consistent with banks' risk-return profiles.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133785450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asia’s Role in the Global Economic Architecture","authors":"M. Kawai, P. Petri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1658346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1658346","url":null,"abstract":"The global economic and financial landscape has been transformed over the past decade by the growing economic size and financial power of emerging economies. The new G20 summit process, which includes the largest emerging economies, has established high-level international policy cooperation in this new setting. This paper argues that effective global economic governance will also require changes in key global organizations — such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and the Financial Stability Board — and closer collaboration between global and regional organizations. We suggest that federalism be introduced on a global scale by creating hierarchies of global and regional organizations with overlapping ownership structures in various functional areas (as is already the case with the World Bank and regional development banks in the area of development finance). Asia could contribute to this transformation by building effective institutions to promote macroeconomic and financial stability and deepen regional trade and investment integration..","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127329479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization: Origin, Development and Outlook","authors":"C. Sussangkarn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1654256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1654256","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM); its origin, development and future outlook. It puts forward a number of proposals to make the liquidity support role of the CMIM more effective. It is further argued that the CMIM can bring about major changes to the policy institutional infrastructure of East Asia, particularly through the establishment of an Independent Surveillance Unit (ISU). The ISU can provide technical and secretariat support to financial cooperation processes in the region, which have thus far been driven by officials on a part-time basis. Consolidation of the main financial forums in the region is also proposed, specifically the Finance Minister Process and the Central Bank Process. Membership of these two processes should be expanded and unified, with the ISU providing technical and secretariat support. It is argued that regular policy meetings can be institutionalized and that this could enhance the role of East Asia in the global financial arena, whilst facilitating policy cooperation, with important regional and global implications.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128622901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financing Asia’s Infrastructure: Modes of Development and Integration of Asian Financial Markets","authors":"B. Bhattacharyay","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1654255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1654255","url":null,"abstract":"Asia faces very large infrastructure funding demands, estimated at around US$750 billion per year for energy, transport, telecommunications, water, and sanitation during 2010-2020 (ADB/ADBI 2009). Asia has large savings, significant international reserves, and rapid accumulations of funds that could be utilized for meeting these infrastructure investment needs, but Asian markets have failed to use available resources to channel funding into highly needed infrastructure projects. This paper explores issues and challenges in financing infrastructure for seamless Asian infrastructure connectivity and for other high priority development financing needs, and seeks methods and instruments to help direct Asian and international resources to cost-effectively and efficiently support infrastructure and other development needs. The paper discusses three important topics: First, what are the lessons for Asia from the European Union's experience of developing and integrating financial markets and using development banking institutions to support infrastructure investment? Second, how can Asian public and private resources, such as pension funds, social security funds, sovereign wealth funds, and private portfolio funds contribute to infrastructure development across Asia? Third, can Islamic financial markets provide funds for Asian infrastructure development? Finally, the paper makes recommendations regarding financing options and how Asian financial markets and infrastructure companies could be further developed and integrated to mobilize Asian and other regions' savings for financing priority infrastructure projects in the region.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130218126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic Provisioning: Some Lessons from Existing Experiences","authors":"Santiago Fernandez de Lis, Alicia García-Herrero","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1624750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1624750","url":null,"abstract":"After analyzing the different reasons why the financial system and also the regulatory framework induced procyclicality, this paper reviews the experiences of three countries which have introduced dynamic provisioning as a regulatory tool to limit procyclicality. The case of Spain the country with the longest experience is reviewed as well as those of Colombia having recently adopted dynamic provisioning. A number of policy lessons are drawn from that comparison.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"2018 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121667906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prospects for Regional Cooperation between Latin America and the Caribbean Region and the Asia and Pacific Region: Perspective from East Asia","authors":"Jenny D. Balboa, Erlinda M. Medalla","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1624747","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1624747","url":null,"abstract":"The Asia and Pacific region and Latin American and Caribbean region are two regions divided not only by vast geographic distance, but also by disparities in economics, politics, culture, and history. Most recently, a number of forums explored the possibility of closing such gaps and linking the two regions through various trade and investment initiatives. The opportunities for cooperation abound and could touch on areas that will improve the regional value chain and enhance the innovation and competitiveness of both regions. Interregional cooperation could also help the two regions seek ways to deal with the current global economic crisis through a range of opportunities to stimulate the economy. This paper explores the potential for regional cooperation between the Asia and Pacific region and Latin America and the Caribbean. It also provides some recommendations to enhance the economic partnership of the two regions.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115720868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma","authors":"J. Aizenman, M. Chinn, Hiro Ito","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1592810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1592810","url":null,"abstract":"This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the output performance of the economies under severe crisis situations. Thirdly, we look into how trilemma configurations have evolved in the aftermath of economic crises in the past. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, it could also make investment volatile, though the volatility-enhancing effect of exchange rate stability on investment can be cancelled by holding higher levels of international reserves (IR). Greater financial openness helps reduce real exchange rate volatility. These results indicate that policymakers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness while holding a massive amount of IR. We also find that the \"crisis economies\" could end up with smaller output losses if they entered the crisis situation with more stable exchange rates or if they continue to hold a high level of IR and maintain greater exchange rate stability during the crisis period. Lastly, we find that developing countries are often found to have decreased the level of monetary independence and financial openness, but increased the level of exchange rate stability in the aftermath of a crisis, especially for the last two decades. This finding indicates how vulnerable developing countries, especially emerging market ones, are to volatile capital flows as a result of global financial liberalization.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126590398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asia Confronts the Impossible Trinity","authors":"I. Patnaik, Ajay Shah","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1590066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1590066","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we examine capital account openness and exchange rate flexibility in 11 Asian economies. Asia has made slow progress in de jure capital account openness, but has made much more progress in de facto capital account openness. While there has been a gradual increase in exchange rate flexibility, most Asian economies continue to have largely inflexible exchange rates. This combination of advancing de facto capital account integration without greater exchange rate flexibility has led to procyclical monetary policy, when capital flows are procyclical. This paper emphasises the need for a consistent monetary policy framework.","PeriodicalId":120411,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Bank Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"125 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125397737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}