Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Democratic Dilemmas of Elite Institutions: Comparing the Court and the Fed","authors":"John O. McGinnis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3936083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3936083","url":null,"abstract":"The Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve, twin pillars of the liberal market order, have never been systematically compared. Yet, as elite institutions in a democratic political world, they face parallel problems in carrying out similar functions of maintaining the precommitments to a stable rule of law and a stable value of money respectively. Both face a countermajoritarian difficulty of justifying their decisions on occasion to go against popular will. In response, both tie themselves to rules in order to cabin their own discretion and to prevent epistemic mistakes common in small groups of insulated decisions makers. Yet as a descriptive matter in emergencies both transcend rules to keep the republic steady. The comparison illuminates parallel dilemmas sometimes recognized in the context of one institution yet denied or ignored in the other. For instance, commentators appreciate the epistemic difficulty of small-group decision making as a major problem for the Fed, while this is not often seen as an issue for the Court. Moreover, the Fed admits it acts differently based on its own evaluation of an emergency, but the Court often does not acknowledge altering its jurisprudence in an emergency. Yet decisions like Bush v. Gore and Wickard v. Filburn are best explained as rooted in emergency judgments similar to the Fed’s. More transparent acknowledgment of the decisiveness of such emergent circumstances would make it easier for the Court, like the Fed, to unwind from its prior judgments in non-emergent circumstances. In addition, the parallel independence of these entities is not only necessary for their purposes but also face similar perils in a time of polarization like our own. Today, the central bank is considering whether it should engage in new forms of activism to address such problems as climate change and inequality. The Supreme Court’s history shows the substantial risk that such activism will undermine the diffuse support among elites. That loss of support leads to political movements, like court packing or favoring structural change for the Fed, that make it more difficult for such institutions to preserve their independence and sustain their precommitments.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114237975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Signaling Value of Legal Form in Debt Financing","authors":"Felix Bracht, Jeroen Mahieu, Steven Vanhaverbeke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3775681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3775681","url":null,"abstract":"Deregulation of capital requirements does not only lead to an increase in entrepreneurship, it also entails a substantial substitution effect where entrepreneurs are more likely to opt for a legal form with low instead of high paid-in capital. In this paper, we show that firms that choose for a limited liability company with low paid-in capital experience a lower access to debt financing compared to their high paid-in capital counterparts. These findings are robust to using different estimation techniques, including a difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity design. Our findings are consistent with the idea that credit providers use the entrepreneur’s legal form choice as a screening device to sort out perceived high-risk firms from low-risk firms. Our findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the impact of deregulation of capital requirements on newly established firms","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128127982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the Effect of Immigration on Public Finances: Evidence from the Influx of Venezuelan Migrants to Colombia","authors":"Carlos A. Mesa-Guerra, Tomás Ramírez-Tobón","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3927396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3927396","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the fiscal impact of immigration on the Colombian economy from 2013 to 2018 using an accounting approach and exploiting the large and sudden increase in inflows from Venezuela. In other words, we estimated the difference between the taxes and other contributions migrants make to public finances and the costs of the public benefits and services they receive. Our findings show that immigrants tend to have less access to, and make lower use of, the welfare system, and do not suggest strong evidence of immigrants imposing a higher burden to public finances relative to natives. When we consider only Venezuelan immigrants, consisting of both the Venezuelan-born population and those native-born returnees arriving from Venezuela, our estimates indicate that while they have a less favorable net fiscal position relative to natives, which is driven by the net contributions to regional and local government budgets, their overall fiscal effect is fairly modest in terms of GDP. When we considered the effect that demographic characteristics play on explaining the differences in the net fiscal contributions among groups, our results suggest that the higher fiscal impact of Venezuelan-born immigrants is driven by recent arrivals, as they contribute on average less in terms of income taxes and social security contributions and have a higher reliance for group expenditures. In contrast, immigrants that have been in the country for more than a year have—if any—a better per capita fiscal position than natives. Finally, since migration is not distributed uniformly across space, the fiscal effects at the local level are not homogeneous. We show that the fiscal effects on local budgets are mediated by two forces: cities’ fiscal effort (the ability to raise revenues from their own sources) and the share of immigrants in the local population.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122090417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Competitividad y Entorno Institucional en Colombia (Competitiveness and Institutional Environment in Colombia)","authors":"Hernando Zuleta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3928935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3928935","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo describe las relaciones entre el entorno institucional, la economía, la distribución del ingreso y la productividad en Colombia. En particular, existe un problema de diseño institucional que fomenta la informalidad, dificulta la inclusión, inhibe la competitividad y frena el crecimiento. Las fallas de diseño institucional se manifiestan en los problemas asociados al régimen tributario, la administración de justicia, la prestación de servicios por parte del gobierno, la corrupción y la dificultad para crear empresa. A partir de las fallas identificadas se plantean posibles reformas que ayuden a impulsar un cambio institucional que ayude a corregir algunas de los problemas descritos. English Abstract: This paper describes the relationships between the institutional environment, the economy, income distribution, and productivity in Colombia. In particular, there is an institutional design problem that encourages informality, hinders inclusion, inhibits competitiveness, and slows growth. Institutional design flaws are manifested in problems associated with the tax regime, the administration of justice, the provision of services by the government, corruption, and the difficulty in creating a business. Based on the flaws identified, possible reforms are proposed to help promote institutional change to help correct some of the problems described.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115192381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economía colombiana en medio del paro nacional 2021 y la recuperación pospandemia (Colombian Economy in the Midst of the 2021 National Strike and Post-Pandemic Recovery)","authors":"Ivan Leonardo Urrea-Ríos, J. Piraján","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3923938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923938","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este documento de la División de Análisis Macroeconómico continúa analizando la respuesta de la economía colombiana a las condiciones de convivencia con la pandemia COVID-19 y a los choques presentados en el frente social con el Paro Nacional durante el segundo trimestre de 2021. Pese a que el proceso de recuperación enfrentó retos relevantes, la apertura establecida en las principales ciudades en junio mostró que la economía tiene una alta capacidad de adaptación y al final del segundo semestre volvió a los niveles de operación más fuertes desde la llegada de la pandemia. Los principales retos en el mediano plazo están en el mejoramiento de las condiciones de bienestar social, pues si bien la producción está reaccionando, los rezagos en el mercado laboral son mayores. English Abstract: This document from the Macroeconomic Analysis Division continues analyzing the response of the Colombian economy to the conditions of coexistence with the COVID-19 pandemic and to the shocks presented on the social front with the National Strike during the second quarter of 2021. Although the recovery process faced relevant challenges, the opening established in the main cities in June showed that the economy has a high capacity to adapt and at the end of the second semester it returned to the strongest operating levels since the arrival of the pandemic. The main challenges in the medium term are in the improvement of social welfare conditions, because although production is reacting, the lags in the labor market are greater.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116669452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Industry Growth at the Zero Lower Bound","authors":"Arsenios Skaperdas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3917127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3917127","url":null,"abstract":"US monetary policy was constrained from 2008 to 2015 by the zero lower bound, during which the Federal Reserve would likely have lowered the federal funds rate if it were able to. This paper uses industry-level data to examine how growth was affected. Despite the zero bound constraint, industries historically more sensitive to interest rates, such as construction, performed relatively well in comparison to industries not typically affected by monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131968226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal Taxation in a Federation and GST in India","authors":"Partha Chatterjee, Trishita Ray Barman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3909336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3909336","url":null,"abstract":"Optimal tax models, starting from Ramsey (1927), are often studied using a single government. However, there are several countries which are federations and in that multiple levels of government have fiscal authority, which masks the heterogeneity across states. In this paper we study a federation with two states and a federal government. We first find that the optimal tax design indicates tax smoothing across the states and consumption smoothing across states and time. Moreover, optimal consumption is found to be independent of the tax rates. We also find that all governments cannot have zero borrowing simultaneously. Then we characterize two equilibria, one where both federal and state governments impose taxes and two, where only the federal government imposes tax. We find that in the first equilibrium, states potentially impose different tax rates, but consumption across states are the same. In an equilibrium with a single federal tax, consumption is smooth across time, but may not be equal across states. However, aggregate consumption in the economy is greater in the second equilibrium. India has adopted a nationwide GST system, moving away from multiple taxation. So, we then calibrate the model to Indian data and find the revenue neutral tax rates. We find that the highest revenue neutral tax rate is 20.1% and the median rate is 11.4%. Using the calibrated indirect tax rates in a regression analysis, we find that tax rates at the state level is negatively related to the growth rate of the state. So, after the implementation of GST in India, some states may see a higher level of consumption tax rate in the state and hence, a fall in growth rate.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115344506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lost in Translation: Excess Returns and the Search for Substantial Activities","authors":"Lilian V. Faulhaber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3907496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3907496","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2010, international tax policymakers have proposed a variety of minimum taxes on excess returns, but every proposal has defined excess returns differently. This Article asks what excess returns are supposed to represent – and concludes that the answer is very different from what policymakers have suggested. The trend of targeting so-called excess returns started in 2010 with a one-page idea in the Obama Treasury’s proposed budget. Over the next decade, this idea became the basis for one of the major international tax reform provisions in the 2017 U.S. tax reform and is now being considered as part of Pillar Two of the OECD’s current digital tax project. The idea in question is a minimum tax on foreign excess returns. Yet even though the general idea of a minimum tax on foreign excess returns has stayed the same across administrations and jurisdictions, the specifics of this idea have changed with every iteration, and the proponents of this idea have justified each version differently and defined its various elements differently. This Article tells the story of the many recent proposals for minimum taxes on foreign excess returns, starting with the Obama Treasury’s brief proposal and ending with the OECD’s current negotiations over digital taxation. This Article highlights the common threads that link all of these rules, and it also shows how differently the drafters of each rule have understood the purpose and design of a minimum tax on foreign excess returns. This Article argues that, despite claims by the policymakers advocating for these minimum taxes, none of these taxes on excess returns is supported by the economic theory of excess returns. Instead, policymakers are using the term “excess returns” to mean different things in the context of different proposals, and they are masking the policy choices they are making by using a term that appears to have support in the economic literature.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130547133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges of international business taxation in the context of digitalization","authors":"N. Milogolov, A. Berberov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904848","url":null,"abstract":"The current system of international taxation does not result in a fair distribution of the tax base between countries in a digital environment violating the principle of taxation in accordance with the added value created in the particular country. In the absence of international consensus, countries reform their tax systems aimed to collect taxes in the digital economy unilaterally by imposing Digital Services Tax (DST). By their nature, being indirect, these taxes (DST) are collected on the turnover of foreign digital companies in the market country (the country of the source of income).","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"138 7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128808398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt","authors":"Allen N. Berger, Onesime Epouhe, Raluca A. Roman","doi":"10.21799/frbp.wp.2021.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2021.32","url":null,"abstract":"High levels of subprime consumer debt can create social problems. We test the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) bailouts during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crisis, respectively, on this debt. We use over 11 million credit bureau observations of individual consumer debt combined with banking, bailout, and local market data. We find that subprime consumers with more TARP institutions in their markets had significantly increased debt burdens following these bailouts. In contrast, PPP bailouts were associated with reduced subprime consumer debt. Findings are robust to addressing identification concerns, and yield policy implications regarding bailout structures and strings attached to bailout funds.","PeriodicalId":119398,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Fiscal & Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"64 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128020486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}