European Journal of Epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Triangulation in biomedical research: navigating an ocean of uncertainty.","authors":"Frank J Wolters","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01265-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01265-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144533391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How hazard ratios can mislead and why it matters in practice.","authors":"Elise Dumas,Mats J Stensrud","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01250-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01250-9","url":null,"abstract":"Hazard ratios are routinely reported as effect measures in clinical trials and observational studies. However, many methodological works have raised concerns about the interpretation of hazard ratios as causal effects. These concerns are often related to three points: (i) depletion of susceptible individuals leads to selection bias and complicates the causal interpretation of the hazard ratio, (ii) the hazard ratio is not collapsible, and (iii) the conventional proportional hazards assumption rarely holds in medical studies. We discuss the relation between these three points. We ground our presentation on an example about effect of endocrine therapy in reducing the risk of recurrence or death in a population of patients with breast cancer. We also describe why survival curves and risk differences do not exhibit any of the undesirable properties of hazard ratios.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144504566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identification of individuals who benefit from omega-3 fatty acid supplementation to prevent coronary heart disease: a machine-learning analysis of the VITAL.","authors":"Rikuta Hamaya,Nancy R Cook,Howard D Sesso,Samia Mora,Julie E Buring,JoAnn E Manson","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01259-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01259-0","url":null,"abstract":"Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated benefits of marine omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (omega-3 FA) supplementation for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, it has not been clear which individuals benefit the most from supplementation. We sought to develop an omega-3 effect score to stratify individuals according to their expected benefit from supplementation. Among the 25,871 randomized participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in the VITamin D and OmegA-3 TriaL (VITAL), we applied machine-learning (ML) approaches to predict individual treatment effect of omega-3 FA supplementation on 5-year CHD risk using 11 covariates pre-specified in the VITAL protocol. An omega-3 effect score was developed such that each covariate contributed linearly. ML algorithms effectively stratified participants by their expected benefit according to individual factors; for example, there was 1.21% absolute CHD risk reduction in the top tertile of the expected benefit, compared with the average effect of 0.47% risk reduction. Baseline diabetes, race, hypertension, sex, and fish intake contributed the most to the omega-3 effect score. Five-year CHD risk was 2.5% among those in the omega-3 arm and 3.2% among those in the placebo arm with omega-3 effect score ≥ 4 (upper 70th percentile), and 1.4% among the omega-3 arm and 1.3% among the placebo arm in those with the score < 4, respectively. The transportability of the score to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data was confirmed. Although testing of the score in a new RCT is warranted, the proposed omega-3 effect score holds promise for guiding decision making for omega-3 FA supplementation in the US primary prevention population.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144488292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Traditional and advanced electrocardiographic measures of autonomic function in the population-based KORA-F3 study.","authors":"Aenne S von Falkenhausen,Felix N Wenner,Luisa Freyer,Lauren E Sams,Margit Heier,Annette Peters,Birgit Linkohr,Steffen Massberg,Axel Bauer,Stefan Kääb,Konstantinos D Rizas,Moritz F Sinner","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01248-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01248-3","url":null,"abstract":"AIMSHeart-rate variability (HRV) measures are surrogates of autonomic function at the level of the sinus node and have evolved as markers of cardiovascular mortality in patients after myocardial infarction (MI). Traditionally, HRV is assessed in time-domain and frequency domain. Advanced measures of autonomic function include deceleration capacity (DC) and periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD). DC predominantly quantifies the influence of parasympathetic tone. PRD captures low-frequency oscillations of repolarization instability and is considered to reflect sympathetic activity at the level of the left ventricular myocardium. However, population-based reference values are missing.METHODS AND RESULTSIn 505 participants of the population-based KORA F3 study (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) with extant digital 24-h Holter electrocardiograms we assessed markers of HRV in time and frequency domains. Additionally, we determined advanced measures of autonomic function including DC and PRD applying previously established technologies. We used standard, pre-defined cut-off values to define high-risk groups. The cohort's mean age was 63.6 ± 5.5 years, and 256 (50.1%) were women. Among HRV measures, exemplarily the median standard deviation of all normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) was 141 ms [119;165] and the median low frequency to high frequency ratio (LF/HF-ratio) was 3.92 [2.69;6.18]. Regarding autonomic function, median DC was 5.32 ms [2.69;6.18], and median PRD was 2.92 ms [2.06;4.14]. Among these measures LF/HF-ratio was significantly higher among men (5.15 [3.23; 7.20]) than women (3.37 [2.36;4.53], p < 0.001). Measured distribution is also provided in a cohort subset without overt cardiovascular conditions. While DC decreased with age, SDNN, LF/HF-ratio, and PRD were stable across age-groups. For participants with comorbidities including hypertension, intake of betablockers, history of MI, stroke, or diabetes mellitus significantly lower SDNN, LF/HF-ratio, and DC were observed.CONCLUSIONIn a large population-based cohort, we systematically present traditional and advanced measures of HRV of cardiac autonomic function. We report reference values in the overall cohort, as well as stratified by sex, age, and concomitant cardiovascular conditions.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144488291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fetal programming of early-onset type 2 diabetes: a Swedish nationwide cohort and sibling analysis.","authors":"Coralie Amadou,Yuxia Wei,Tiinamaija Tuomi,Maria Feychting,Sofia Carlsson","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01261-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01261-6","url":null,"abstract":"Incidence of early-onset (< 40 years) type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing. While multiple risk factors have been identified, particularly obesity and low socioeconomic status, early-life factors are hypothesised to play a role via fetal programming. We investigated sociodemographic and early-life factors in relation to early-onset T2D using a family-based design that accounts for shared genetic and environmental factors. We included 1,814,062 individuals born in Sweden 1983 to 2002 with follow-up data until 2020, and identified early-onset (age 19-39) T2D cases (n = 3505) through National Diabetes, Patient and Prescribed Drug Registers. Perinatal and sociodemographic factors were retrieved from registers. We used a cohort and sibling design, with multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Sociodemographic factors associated with early-onset T2D included low parental education, single parenthood, younger parental age and non-Swedish origin. The latter association did not remain after mutual adjustment. Regarding perinatal factors, a higher incidence was noted in relation to lower birth weight (hazard ratio 2.38 [95% confidence interval: 1.98-2.87] and 1.43[1.33-1.54] for < 2500 g and 2500-3500 g, respectively, vs 3500-4500 g), small-for-gestational-age (SGA) (2.24[1.96-2.56]), large-for-gestational-age (LGA) (1.19[1.01-1.39]), and maternal obesity (2.34[2.04-2.69]), diabetes (1.59[1.36-1.85]), smoking (1.59[1.48-1.71]), and infection (1.21[1.03-1.41]) during pregnancy. In the sibling analysis, only low birth weight and SGA remained associated with early-onset T2D. Early-onset T2D is associated with sociodemographic and multiple perinatal factors; only growth restriction likely reflects fetal programming, while other perinatal-related associations might involve confounders. This study highlights the need for early-life, targeted strategies to prevent T2D and reduce health inequities.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A population-based cohort to evaluate drug safety during pregnancy (PREGVAL): rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.","authors":"Francisco Sánchez-Sáez,Gabriel Sanfélix-Gimeno,Isabel Hurtado,Aníbal García-Sempere,María Garcés-Sánchez,Fran Llopis-Cardona,Salvador Peiró,Clara L Rodríguez-Bernal","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01260-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01260-7","url":null,"abstract":"The main aim of the PREGVAL cohort is to evaluate and monitor the in-utero safety of medication administered to pregnant women, as usually this population is excluded from clinical trials assessing drugs. It is a population-based cohort, comprised by pregnant women and their offspring in the Valencia Region (Spain), between July 1st 2009 and December 31st 2021, which will be followed from 6 months pre-conception until death, loss of coverage or end of study, with over 520.000 pregnancies for the study period. The data source will be the Valencia Integrated Database (VID), which links records at the individual level using a unique personal identification code, with exhaustive data on comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, etc.) and other clinical variables, sociodemographic variables (age, socio-economic status, risk of social exclusion) and other potential confounders (smoking, alcohol intake). It also provides accurate data on timing of exposure for most livebirths and all of the stillbirths occurred in the region, and partially for spontaneous abortions and elective terminations (due to the availability of gestational age by ultrasound or last menstrual period for these outcomes allowing the calculation of the date of conception) and allows the identification of medications prescription and dispensation data with a very high detail, avoiding the problem of potential exposure misclassification present in many of the existent registries/cohorts. Regarding outcomes, there is exhaustive and accurate data on pregnancy complications, spontaneous abortions, terminations (in this case, those occurred within the public health system), birth weight, preterm birth, congenital anomalies, and perinatal mortality; as well as the availability of post-natal long-term follow-up. These features make the PREGVAL study one of the largest and most exhaustive cohorts to assess real-world in-utero safety of medications to date.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"640 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cohort profile: the Guangzhou older longitudinal dynamic health (GOLD-Health) cohort.","authors":"Hui Liu,Xiaojie Wang,Weiquan Lin,Ge Chen,Jiamin Chen,Zilong Zhang,Qin Zhou,Yin Yang,Xiangyi Liu,Junguo Zhang,Yingying Fang,Liying Luo,Hualiang Lin,Zhoubin Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01254-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01254-5","url":null,"abstract":"The Guangzhou Older Longitudinal Dynamic Health (GOLD-Health) Cohort is a prospective population-based cohort study aimed at investigating the risk factors associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among adult individuals in Guangzhou, one of China's most developed and densely populated cities. From 1 Jan 2018 until 31 Dec 2020, 737,863 participants (mean age = 71.8 years, 58.9% were female) completed baseline data collection, among which approximately 92.1% donated blood samples. Baseline data collection comprises various factors, including general characteristics, socio-economic factors, lifestyle habits, cooking fuel usage and living standards, and medical history of chronic diseases. Additionally, physical and biochemical indicator examinations are conducted by trained medical staff. Two complementary follow-up approaches are utilized to validate and enrich the outcome information on mortality and non-communicable disease outcomes, ensuring its reliability and comprehensiveness. First, routine linkage with the Guangzhou Municipal Health Commission's electronic records provides continuous monitoring of mortality events and participants' inpatient and outpatient hospital visits. Second, periodic follow-up is conducted through telephone interviews and regular face-to-face surveys to collect detailed information on health status, lifestyle changes, newly diagnosed conditions, and self-reported events not captured in hospital records. This combined approach ensures both the completeness and accuracy of the cohort data. This cohort may serve as a decision-making tool for chronic disease management and contributes to the evaluation of scientific findings under real-world conditions.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Recent trends in self-reported utilization of colonoscopy and fecal occult blood test in Europe: analysis of the European Health Interview Surveys 2013-2015 and 2018-2020.","authors":"Idris Ola,Rafael Cardoso,Michael Hoffmeister,Hermann Brenner","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01247-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-025-01247-4","url":null,"abstract":"Despite increasing implementation of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs in Europe, utilization of screening tests has varied significantly over the years. We examined recent trends in the utilization of colonoscopy and fecal occult blood test (FOBT), the primary tests recommended for CRC screening, across European countries with various screening programs. Population-based data from the second and third waves of the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS) were analyzed to determine changes in utilization of fecal occult blood test within the preceding 2 years or colonoscopy within the preceding 10 years among people aged 50-74 years between 2013-2015 and 2018-2020. Absolute percentage changes (APC) in screening test use were calculated in each country and subgroup meta-analyses were conducted using random effects models to estimate the pooled APCs and their 95% confidence intervals across different categories of screening offers. A total of 234,251 respondents across 28 European countries were included in the analysis. The increase in use of either test was highest among countries which fully rolled out nationwide organized screening programs with fecal tests between 2013-2015 and 2018-2020 (increases ranging from 19.1% units in Belgium to 46.3% units in The Netherlands) and was lowest among countries with opportunistic offering of fecal test, colonoscopy or flexible sigmoidoscopy (from - 3% units in Germany to + 12.2% units in Slovakia). Changes in screening programs were strongly associated with higher rates of utilization of colonoscopy and fecal occult blood test across all screening offers. Our findings highlight that well-organized and dynamic population screening strategies can rapidly and sustainably increase utilization of CRC screening tests in Europe.","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144311466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How hazard ratios can mislead and why it matters in practice.","authors":"Elise Dumas, Mats J Stensrud","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01250-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10654-025-01250-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Hazard ratios are routinely reported as effect measures in clinical trials and observational studies. However, many methodological works have raised concerns about the interpretation of hazard ratios as causal effects. These concerns are often related to three points: (i) depletion of susceptible individuals leads to selection bias and complicates the causal interpretation of the hazard ratio, (ii) the hazard ratio is not collapsible, and (iii) the conventional proportional hazards assumption rarely holds in medical studies. We discuss the relation between these three points. We ground our presentation on an example about effect of endocrine therapy in reducing the risk of recurrence or death in a population of patients with breast cancer. We also describe why survival curves and risk differences do not exhibit any of the undesirable properties of hazard ratios.</p>","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"603-609"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12263472/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144505227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reply to: Aspirin use and risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.","authors":"Hangkai Huang, Zhening Liu, Chengfu Xu","doi":"10.1007/s10654-025-01253-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10654-025-01253-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11907,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"737"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144293570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}