Gautam S. Thakur, Kevin A. Sparks, A. Berres, Varisara Tansakul, S. Chinthavali, M. Whitehead, Erik Schmidt, Haowen Xu, Junchuan Fan, Dustin Spears, Elton Cranfill
{"title":"COVID-19 Joint Pandemic Modeling and Analysis Platform","authors":"Gautam S. Thakur, Kevin A. Sparks, A. Berres, Varisara Tansakul, S. Chinthavali, M. Whitehead, Erik Schmidt, Haowen Xu, Junchuan Fan, Dustin Spears, Elton Cranfill","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430760","url":null,"abstract":"The non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19 requires the development of policies and guidance through a collaborative effort among government, academia, medicine, and citizens. To operationalize this effort, we have developed an all-encompassing situational awareness platform that can process multi-modal and multi-source data allowing informed decision making. Besides, showing the current spread of infection, the platform also captures the impact of human dynamics on the infection spread, location, and availability of critical infrastructure, prediction, and high-performance computing driven simulation. The platform is extensible, allowing third-party integration and services to consume the curated data and analytics in near real-time. We believe the platform will augment critical decision making for reducing the impact and spread of the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121603650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sensitivity Analysis for COVID-19 Epidemiological Models within a Geographic Framework","authors":"Zhongying Wang, Orhun Aydin","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430755","url":null,"abstract":"Spatial sciences and geography have been integral to the modeling of and communicating information pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiological models are being used within a geographic context to map the spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus and to make decisions regarding state-wide interventions and allocating hospital resources. Data required for epidemiological models are often incomplete, biased, and available for a spatial unit more extensive than the one needed for decision-making. In this paper, we present results on a global sensitivity analysis of epidemiological model parameters on an important design variable, time to peak number of cases, within a geographic context. We design experiments for quantifying the impact of uncertainty of epidemiological model parameters on distribution of peak times for the state of California. We conduct our analysis at the county-level and perform a non-parametric, global sensitivity analysis to quantify interplay between the uncertainty of epidemiological parameters and design variables.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131513255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Using Animation to Visualize Spatio-Temporal Varying COVID-19 Data","authors":"H. Samet, Yunheng Han, J. Kastner, Hong Wei","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430761","url":null,"abstract":"CoronaViz (http://coronaviz.umiacs.io) is a research prototype developed by us to enable the dynamic map visualization of COVID-19 related variables including the number of confirmed cases, active cases, recoveries, and deaths all on a daily basis from the Johns Hopkins University web site at ter.ps/coronajhu, by allowing the underlying spatial region and the spanned time interval to vary. Any combination of the variables can be viewed. subject to a possibility of clutter which is avoided by the use of concentric circles (termed geo-circles) whose radius values correspond to the variable values. The variable values are provided both on cumulative and day-by-day bases. The visualization enables spatial and temporal variation.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129562224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On Improving Toll Accuracy for COVID-like Epidemics in Underserved Communities Using User-generated Data","authors":"H. Aboubakr, A. Magdy","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430758","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430758","url":null,"abstract":"This paper envisions using user-generated data as a cheap way to improve accuracy of epidemic tolls in underserved communities. The global widespread of COVID-19 pandemic has imposed several unprecedented challenges. One of these challenges is constantly monitoring the unprecedented epidemic widespread at a fine-granular spatial scale, so experts can model, understand, and prevent disease transmission and field personnel can reach and treat infected people. Unfortunately, the limited resources compared to the pandemic widespread has led to a significant number of unreported cases in underserved communities and developing countries, including a large number of severe cases. We propose in this paper enhancing epidemic case reporting in underserved communities through exploiting the power of data that are posted by people on web. Our vision is building a data analysis pipeline that filters and categories use-generated data objects to provide informal estimates for tolls in unreachable regions and enhance estimates in other regions. The pipeline consist of five stages, that starts with filtering epidemic-specific data to visualize advanced aggregates to end users. We also discuss several technical challenges that face different stages of the pipeline.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133226785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 on Education Based on Geotagged Twitter","authors":"Zhu Wang, I. Cruz","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430756","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430756","url":null,"abstract":"More than 150 colleges have reported hundreds of COVID-19 confirmed cases over all the states as the campuses have reopened and the schools have resumed in-person classes, after switching overnight to online teaching in the spring. We conduct a large scale study on education by using a geotagged Twitter dataset, which spans the whole U.S. during parts of the spring, summer, and fall terms of 2020. We analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of COVID-19 cases. Then, we conduct content and sentiment analysis to discover which topics and which thoughts people located at U.S. colleges and universities are communicating.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"647 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131954210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Infection Risk Score: Identifying the risk of infection propagation based on human contact","authors":"R. Agarwal, Abhik Banerjee","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430754","url":null,"abstract":"A wide range of approaches have been applied to manage the spread of global pandemic events such as COVID-19, which have met with varying degrees of success. Given the large-scale social and economic impact coupled with the increasing time span of the pandemic, it is important to not only manage the spread of the disease but also put extra efforts on measures that expedite resumption of social and economic life. It is therefore important to identify situations that carry high risk, and act early whenever such situations are identified. While a large number of mobile applications have been developed, they are aimed at obtaining information that can be used for contact tracing, but not at estimating the risk of social situations. In this paper, we introduce an infection risk score that provides an estimate of the infection risk arising from human contacts. Using a real-world human contact dataset, we show that the proposed risk score can provide a realistic estimate of the level of risk in the population. We also describe how the proposed infection risk score can be implemented on smartphones. Finally, we identify representative use cases that can leverage the risk score to minimize infection propagation.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131821198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mehrdad Kiamari, G. Ramachandran, Quynh Nguyen, Eva Pereira, Jeanne Holm, B. Krishnamachari
{"title":"COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model","authors":"Mehrdad Kiamari, G. Ramachandran, Quynh Nguyen, Eva Pereira, Jeanne Holm, B. Krishnamachari","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430759","url":null,"abstract":"Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a time-varying SIR epidemic model that ultimately yields a simplified color-coded risk level for each community. The risk score Γt that we propose is proportional to the probability of someone currently healthy getting infected in the next 24 hours based on their locality. We show how this risk score can be estimated using another useful metric of infection spread, Rt, the time-varying average reproduction number which indicates the average number of individuals an infected person would infect in turn. The proposed approach also allows for quantification of uncertainty in the estimates of Rt and Γt in the form of confidence intervals. Code and data from our effort have been open-sourced and are being applied to assess and communicate the risk of infection in the City and County of Los Angeles.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"97 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132753170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Corona Games: Masks, Social Distancing and Mechanism Design","authors":"Balázs Pejó, G. Biczók","doi":"10.1145/3423459.3430757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459.3430757","url":null,"abstract":"Pandemic response is a complex affair. Most governments employ a set of quasi-standard measures to fight COVID-19 including wearing masks, social distancing, virus testing and contact tracing. We argue that some non-trivial factors behind the varying effectiveness of these measures are selfish decision-making and the differing national implementations of the response mechanism. In this paper, through simple games, we show the effect of individual incentives on the decisions made with respect to wearing masks and social distancing, and how these may result in a sub-optimal outcome. We also demonstrate the responsibility of national authorities in designing these games properly regarding the chosen policies and their influence on the preferred outcome. We promote a mechanism design approach: it is in the best interest of every government to carefully balance social good and response costs when implementing their respective pandemic response mechanism.","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125178398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","authors":"","doi":"10.1145/3423459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3423459","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":118865,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Modeling and Understanding the Spread of COVID-19","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115785082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}