EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-03-26DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001979
Katrina L Kezios, Scott C Zimmerman, Peter T Buto, Maria Glymour, Adina Zeki Al Hazzouri
{"title":"Income Volatility During Early to Mid-adulthood and 10-year Memory Decline in a Longitudinal Synthetic Cohort.","authors":"Katrina L Kezios, Scott C Zimmerman, Peter T Buto, Maria Glymour, Adina Zeki Al Hazzouri","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001979","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001979","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Income volatility may negatively affect midlife cognition, but its impact on cognitive decline is unknown. Lifecourse data to investigate this relationship are lacking; a carefully constructed synthetic cohort can fill this gap.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We linked baby boomers from two US cohorts-the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79, N = 2,871) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, N = 5,711)-to create a longitudinal synthetic cohort. In NLSY79, we computed income volatility between 1990 and 2010. In HRS, memory was assessed from 2010 to 2020 (sum of immediate and delayed 10-word recall scores). To link participants across cohorts, each HRS participant was matched to and assigned the income volatility history of their 20 most similar NLSY79 counterparts based on harmonized linking variables measured in 2010 (approximately age 50 in each cohort). In the synthetic cohort, we used confounder-adjusted linear mixed models to estimate the effect of income volatility on memory function and 10-year decline.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Higher income volatility was associated with lower baseline memory function but not decline. Compared with experiencing no income drops ≥25% between surveys, memory scores were lower by 0.11 points (95% CI: -0.40, 0.18) for participants experiencing one drop, 0.32 (95% CI: -0.63, -0.00) for 2 drops, and 0.60 (95% CI: -0.93, -0.27) for ≥3 drops. Results attenuated with adjustment for earlier-life cognition (available only in NLSY79).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Income volatility from early to mid-adulthood may impact midlife memory function, but no association with memory decline was observed. Results rely on strong cohort-linking assumptions and may be influenced by unmeasured earlier-life confounders.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"532-543"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13218580/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147510759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-02-23DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001969
Rachael K Ross, Kara E Rudolph, Daniel Malinsky
{"title":"Re: Generalizing and Transporting Causal Inferences from Randomized Trials in the Presence of Trial Engagement Effects.","authors":"Rachael K Ross, Kara E Rudolph, Daniel Malinsky","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001969","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001969","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"e10-e11"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147503376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-04-07DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001985
Fernando Pires Hartwig, Kate Tilling, George Davey Smith
{"title":"Empirically Assessing the Plausibility of Unconfoundedness in Observational Studies.","authors":"Fernando Pires Hartwig, Kate Tilling, George Davey Smith","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001985","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001985","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The possibility of unmeasured confounding is one of the main limitations for causal inference from observational studies. There are different methods for (partially) empirically assessing the plausibility of unconfoundedness. However, most currently available methods require (at least partial) assumptions about the confounding structure, which may be difficult to know in practice. In this paper, we describe a simple strategy for empirically assessing the plausibility of conditional unconfoundedness (i.e., whether the candidate adjustment set of covariates suffices for confounding adjustment), which does not require any explicit assumptions about the confounding structure, relying instead on assumptions related to temporal ordering between covariates, exposure, and outcome (which can be guaranteed by design) and selection into the study. The proposed method essentially relies on testing the association between a subset of the covariates included in the adjustment set (those associated with the exposure, given all other covariates) and the outcome conditional on the remaining covariates and the exposure. We describe the assumptions underlying the method, provide proofs, use simulations to corroborate the theory, and illustrate the method with an applied example assessing the causal effect of delivery mode and intelligence quotient measured in adulthood using data from the 1982 Pelotas (Brazil) birth cohort. We also discuss the implications of measurement error and some important limitations of the suggested approach.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"515-522"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147627584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-04-22DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001975
Bronner P Gonçalves
{"title":"Latent Variation in Pathogen Strain-specific Effects Under Multiple-Versions-of-Treatment Theory.","authors":"Bronner P Gonçalves","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001975","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001975","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Evidence-informed infectious disease policy requires estimates of the health effects of infections. However, pathogenic variation, whereby the risk of adverse outcomes depends on the strain-specific characteristics of the pathogen, might complicate the study of many infectious agents. Here, we consider the interpretation of epidemiologic studies of infectious diseases when there is such heterogeneity in strain-specific effects and when information on strain composition is unavailable. We use potential outcomes and causal inference theory for analyses in the presence of multiple versions of treatment to argue that oft-reported quantities in these studies have a causal interpretation that depends on population frequencies of infecting strains. Moreover, as in other contexts where the treatment-variation-irrelevance assumption might be violated, transportability requires additional considerations, beyond those needed for noncompound exposures. This discussion, considering potential heterogeneity in strain-specific effects, will facilitate the interpretation of epidemiologic studies and also highlight the value of pathogen subtype data.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":"37 4","pages":"490-493"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148053437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-03-18DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001977
Rory K Stewart, Honghyok Kim, Yimeng Song, Hayon Michelle Choi, Chen Chen, Yongsoo Choi, Michelle L Bell
{"title":"Temporal Variation in the Association Between Short-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Mortality Across Subpopulations in North Carolina and Michigan, U.S.","authors":"Rory K Stewart, Honghyok Kim, Yimeng Song, Hayon Michelle Choi, Chen Chen, Yongsoo Choi, Michelle L Bell","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001977","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001977","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Growing evidence suggests that the health impacts of a given increment of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are changing over time. While these trends could influence environmental health disparities, how temporal trends vary across locations and subpopulations remains unknown. Using case-crossover analyses, we analyzed how PM 2.5 -mortality associations varied over time (2001-2016) in two U.S. states (North Carolina and Michigan) among persons 65+ years of age. We further characterized temporal variation in the PM 2.5 -mortality association by sociodemographic variables including age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, urbanicity, and substate region. From the 2001-2008 study period to the 2009-2016 study period, the odds of mortality per 10 μg/m 3 PM 2.5 decreased by 0.77% in North Carolina but increased by 0.28% in Michigan. Using a nonlinear temporal model, the associations between PM 2.5 concentration and mortality were variable over time in North Carolina and steadily increased over time in Michigan. We also found suggestive evidence of widening disparities in PM 2.5 -mortality odds ratios over time. For example, PM 2.5 -mortality odds in Michigan increased more dramatically for non-Hispanic black (1.71% [-1.17, 4.67%]) than for non-Hispanic white (0.14% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.93, 1.22%]) subpopulations. In North Carolina, these groups experienced a 0.40% (-3.56, 2.85%) and 0.96% (-2.52, 0.62%) reduction in PM 2.5 -mortality, respectively. Our results suggest that PM 2.5 -related mortality impacts may be changing over time, with different trends by location and subpopulation, potentially exacerbating environmental injustice.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"456-466"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13218584/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147480092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-04-01DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001984
Xue You, Hui Zhu, Mengting Jiang, Yonghui Gu, Yangqian Jiang, Tao Jiang, Rui Qin, Hong Lv, Cong Liu, Xin Xu, Yuxin Liu, Tianyu Sun, Bo Xu, Jiaping Chen, Yue Jiang, Xiaoyu Liu, Kun Zhou, Guangfu Jin, Hongxia Ma, Zhibin Hu, Yuan Lin, Yan Zong, Hu Liu, Jiangbo Du
{"title":"Association of Maternal Gestational Diabetes Mellitus with Infant Visual Acuity Development.","authors":"Xue You, Hui Zhu, Mengting Jiang, Yonghui Gu, Yangqian Jiang, Tao Jiang, Rui Qin, Hong Lv, Cong Liu, Xin Xu, Yuxin Liu, Tianyu Sun, Bo Xu, Jiaping Chen, Yue Jiang, Xiaoyu Liu, Kun Zhou, Guangfu Jin, Hongxia Ma, Zhibin Hu, Yuan Lin, Yan Zong, Hu Liu, Jiangbo Du","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001984","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001984","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgrounds: </strong>The impact of maternal gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and its glycemic subtypes on the early visual development of infants remains unclear.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Based on the Jiangsu Birth Cohort, we included 2139 infants born to 2041 mothers recruited from 2014 to 2018. Maternal GDM was categorized into three categories based on oral glucose tolerance test results: impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, and comorbid impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance. Infants' grating visual acuity was measured at 1 year of age using Teller Acuity Cards II. We used generalized estimating equation models to examine the association between maternal GDM and infant visual acuity, accounting for the dependence of twin observations. We then conducted a metabolomics analysis to explore the metabolic profiles associated with GDM and infant visual acuity.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Prenatal GDM exposure was associated with a 70% increase in risk of abnormal visual acuity in infants (relative risks [RR] = 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2, 2.3). The increased risks were more pronounced among infants in the comorbid impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance group (RR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.4, 7.7), followed by the impaired glucose tolerance group (RR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.1, 3.0) and the impaired fasting glucose group (RR = 1.6; 95% CI = 0.7, 3.6), compared with unexposed infants. The metabolomics analysis suggested glycine, serine, and threonine metabolism as an enriched pathway and identified creatine as a metabolite of interest.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Maternal GDM is associated with an increased risk of abnormal grating visual acuity in infants at 1 year of age. Glycine, serine, and threonine metabolism pathways may contribute to this association.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"479-489"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147590915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-04-01DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001983
Candice Y Johnson, Lucy Akushevich, Heather R Batchelder, Ashley E Price, Katelyn M Holliday, Elliot D Hill, Laura J Fish, Devdutta Sangvai, Truls Østbye
{"title":"Validity of Military Service as Reported on U.S. Death Certificates.","authors":"Candice Y Johnson, Lucy Akushevich, Heather R Batchelder, Ashley E Price, Katelyn M Holliday, Elliot D Hill, Laura J Fish, Devdutta Sangvai, Truls Østbye","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001983","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001983","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although death certificates are widely used to study mortality in the general population, their use to study mortality among individuals with military service has been limited in part by a lack of information on the validity of military service reported on death certificates. Our objective was to estimate bias parameters for the misclassification of military service to facilitate quantitative bias analysis in studies of mortality in military populations.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We included 2014-2021 death certificates from decedents aged 18-64 years who resided and died in Alabama, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, or Oregon. Death certificates were linked to military service records by the U.S. Defense Manpower Data Center using Social Security numbers. Military service was defined as any service in the Regular, Reserve, or National Guard components of the U.S. military in Defense Manpower Data Center records. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for military service reported on death certificates stratified by demographics, military characteristics, and manner of death.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the 467,075 death certificates included, 9.3% indicated military service; however, military records showed that 10.9% had served (sensitivity 81.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 81.2%, 81.8%; specificity 99.5%, 95% CI = 99.5%, 99.5%). Sensitivity was lower among female (72.3%) compared with male (82.2%) servicemembers and was particularly low for those who had never served on active duty (63.5%).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Military service was underreported on death certificates, especially for female servicemembers and those without active-duty service. The bias parameters we estimated can be used to account for this misclassification when analyzing death certificates.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"553-558"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147590989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001944
Arin L Madenci, Kerollos Nashat Wanis, Ludovic Trinquart, Katherine E Kurgansky, Hanna Gerlovin, Miguel A Hernán
{"title":"A Call for Randomization: Bariatric Surgery and Cardiovascular Disease.","authors":"Arin L Madenci, Kerollos Nashat Wanis, Ludovic Trinquart, Katherine E Kurgansky, Hanna Gerlovin, Miguel A Hernán","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001944","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001944","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"476-478"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13316796/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146028618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EpidemiologyPub Date : 2026-07-01Epub Date: 2026-03-02DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001967
Hong Chen, Matthew Quick, Jay S Kaufman, Chen Chen, Jeffrey C Kwong, Juwel Rana, JinHee Kim, Aaron van Donkelaar, Randall V Martin, Michael Tjepkema, Tarik Benmarhnia, Richard T Burnett
{"title":"Improving Inference in Air Pollution Epidemiology: The Case for Rethinking Multipollutant Adjustment.","authors":"Hong Chen, Matthew Quick, Jay S Kaufman, Chen Chen, Jeffrey C Kwong, Juwel Rana, JinHee Kim, Aaron van Donkelaar, Randall V Martin, Michael Tjepkema, Tarik Benmarhnia, Richard T Burnett","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001967","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001967","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Air quality regulations and programs are vital for protecting the public from harms caused by air pollution. To support these actions, numerous epidemiological studies have sought to identify the pollutants most responsible for adverse outcomes. These studies often used statistical adjustments for copollutants in outcome regression models, a practice also commonly applied to assess interactions between copollutants. Here, we highlight possible pitfalls of multipollutant analyses. Indiscriminate copollutant adjustment can induce noncausal associations through collider adjustment, distorting effect estimates for individual air pollutants. We describe the underlying mechanisms and provide empirical evidence on how such bias may realistically influence the relationships between air pollution and health outcomes from a well-characterized Canadian national cohort alongside a simulation study. Additionally, we discuss strategies to mitigate the impact of this bias. Given the widespread interest in multipollutant approaches among the scientific and policy communities, greater caution is needed when conducting and interpreting research on multiple pollutants.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"427-436"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13218581/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147369180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}