Epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"L or M1 -Critical Challenges in Mediation Analysis.","authors":"Etsuji Suzuki","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001888","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001888","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"686-689"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144208034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Computing True Parameter Values in Simulation Studies Using Monte Carlo Integration.","authors":"Ashley I Naimi, David Benkeser, Jacqueline E Rudolph","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001873","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001873","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Simulation studies are used to evaluate and compare the properties of statistical methods in controlled experimental settings. In most cases, performing a simulation study requires knowledge of the true value of the parameter, or estimand, of interest. However, in many simulation designs, the true value of the estimand is difficult to compute analytically. Here, we illustrate the use of Monte Carlo integration to compute true estimand values in simple and more complex simulation designs. We provide general pseudocode that can be replicated in any software program of choice to demonstrate key principles in using Monte Carlo integration in two scenarios: a simple three-variable simulation where interest lies in the marginally adjusted odds ratio and a more complex causal mediation analysis where interest lies in the controlled direct effect in the presence of mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. We discuss general strategies that can be used to minimize Monte Carlo error and to serve as checks on the simulation program to avoid coding errors. R programming code is provided illustrating the application of our pseudocode in these settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"690-693"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12307111/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144289331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving the Use of Social Contact Studies in Epidemic Modeling.","authors":"Tom Britton, Frank Ball","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001876","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001876","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Social contact studies are used in infectious disease epidemiology to infer a contact matrix , having the mean number of contacts between individuals of different age groups as elements. However, does not capture the (often large) variation in the number of contacts within each age group, information is also available in social contact studies. Here, we include such variation by separating each age group into two halves: the socially active (having many contacts) and the socially less active (having fewer contacts). The extended contact matrix and its associated epidemic model show that acknowledging variation in social activity within age groups has a substantial impact on the basic reproduction number, , and the final fraction getting infected if the epidemic takes off, . In fact, variation in social activity is more important for data fitting than allowing for different age groups. A difficulty with variation in social activity, however, is that social contact studies typically lack information on whether mixing with respect to social activity is assortative (when socially active mainly have contact with other socially active individuals) or not. Our analysis shows that accounting for variation in social activity improves model predictability, yielding more accurate expressions for and irrespective of whether such mixing is assortative, but different assumptions on assortativity give rather different outputs. Future social contact studies should, therefore, also try to infer the degree of assortativity (with respect to social activity) between peers and their contacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"660-667"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12303244/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144289332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Housing and Preterm Birth, Stillbirth and Neonatal Death in Canada: A Population-based Study Using 2006 and 2016 National Census Data.","authors":"Azar Mehrabadi, Gabriel D Shapiro, Jay S Kaufman, Seungmi Yang","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001886","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":"36 5","pages":"e21-e23"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144741698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum: A Generalization of the Mechanism-based Approach for Age-Period-Cohort Models.","authors":"","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001885","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001885","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"e24"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144208032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erratum: Generalizing and Transporting Causal Inferences from Randomized Trials in the Presence of Trial Engagement Effects.","authors":"Lawson Ung, Tyler J VanderWeele, Issa J Dahabreh","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001891","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":"36 5","pages":"e25"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144741697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Relationship of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the COVID-19 Pandemic Period With Perinatal Health in California.","authors":"Emily F Liu, Shelley Jung, Kara E Rudolph, Mahasin S Mujahid, William H Dow, Dana E Goin, Rachel Morello-Frosch, Jennifer Ahern","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001878","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001878","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In this article, we test the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 pandemic period had stronger adverse implications for perinatal outcomes among marginalized racial and ethnic groups in California.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used California birth certificates and hospital data from 2019 to 2021 to estimate marginal risk differences for SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 pandemic period in relation to perinatal outcomes for Asian, Black, Hispanic, Multiracial, and White pregnant people using targeted maximum likelihood estimation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among 849,401 deliveries, there were racial and ethnic disparities in the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection and perinatal outcomes and in the magnitudes of risk associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 pandemic. Hispanic pregnant people had the highest incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Asian and Black pregnant people had the greatest marginal risk differences for multiple outcomes, particularly outcomes already disproportionately experienced by these groups.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Risks from SARS-CoV-2 infection and the COVID-19 pandemic period on perinatal outcomes were disproportionately experienced by marginalized racial and ethnic groups. Differential burdens of infection and larger risks experienced with pandemic exposures were associated with worse perinatal outcomes for Asian, Black, and Hispanic pregnant people in California compared with those for White pregnant people.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"668-676"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12307113/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144157429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Variability and Clustering of Life Expectancy in the United States: 1990-2019.","authors":"Isabel P De Ramos, Tara P McAlexander, Usama Bilal","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001879","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001879","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Longevity has stagnated during the last decade in the United States, but this stagnation has not been homogeneous. We aimed to explore the spatial variation of life expectancy by sex across commuting zones in the contiguous United States from 1990 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We computed sex-specific life expectancy at birth for US commuting zones across six 5-year periods (1990-1994 to 2015-2019) and examined the spatial variability of life expectancy and clustering of baseline and changes in life expectancy during the study period.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Overall life expectancy increased over time for both males and females and recently stagnated, while variability has increased for females. Regardless of sex, commuting zones with low baseline life expectancy that worsened over time were concentrated in the Appalachian region and Deep South. Areas with high baseline life expectancy and improved the most over time were scattered throughout the Midwest, Northwest, and West.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The recent stagnation in life expectancy reflects wide spatial heterogeneity in changes in longevity. Growing spatial differences in longevity render males and females in the South, specifically the Appalachia and along the Mississippi River, to consistently live disproportionate short lives. Further studies should explore the contribution of different causes of death and the potential contextual drivers of these patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"616-624"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144155936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential Impact of Maternal Nighttime Light Exposure and Its Interaction With Sociodemographic Characteristics on the Risk of Various Congenital Heart Diseases.","authors":"Shanidewuhaxi Tuohetasen, Yanji Qu, Philip K Hopke, Kai Zhang, Yang Liu, Shao Lin, Haogao Gu, Ximeng Wang, Sam S S Lau, Xian Lin, Xiangmin Gao, Yong Wu, Xinli Zhou, Ziqiang Lin, Man Zhang, Yongqing Sun, Xiaoqing Liu, Jimei Chen, Wangjian Zhang","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001883","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001883","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although maternal exposure to artificial light at night has shown negative associations with pregnancy outcomes, its impact on the risk of congenital heart disease remains unclear. This study examined the association between maternal exposure to artificial light at night during pregnancy and occurrence of congenital heart disease in offspring, considering potential interactions with sociodemographics.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We included newborns diagnosed prenatally with congential heart disease and healthy volunteers from 21 cities in southern China. Using satellite data, we estimated annual exposure to artificial light at night at maternal residential addresses during pregnancy. We evaluated associations using marginal structural logistic models and assessed multiplicative and additive interaction between sociodemographics and light exposure.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Each 1-unit increase in light at night during pregnancy was associated with an elevated risk of total congenital heart disease (odds ratio [OR]: 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2, 1.3), and of almost all specific disease subtypes, in offspring. Using quartiles of light at night confirmed a monotonic dose-response relationship between exposure and disease. The association was more pronounced in severe disease. Some sociodemographic characteristics modified associations between light at night and congenital heart disease, with detrimental associations more pronounced among offspring of mothers with lower education (OR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.3), lower income (OR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3), or being usual residents (OR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4), based on the continuous model.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Maternal exposure to artificial light at night during pregnancy was substantially associated with an elevated risk of congenital heart disease in offspring. This association was more pronounced among some sociodemographic groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"625-635"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144157428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Use of Health Administrative Data to Identify Migraine in Individuals With a Recognized Pregnancy: A Validation Study in Ontario, Canada.","authors":"Carmela Melina Albanese, Susan J Bondy, Christine Lay, Zhiyin Li, Jun Guan, Hilary K Brown","doi":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001890","DOIUrl":"10.1097/EDE.0000000000001890","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Migraine is a common risk factor for adverse perinatal outcomes, showing the importance of studying migraine in pregnancy. Despite the growing use of routinely collected administrative data in health research, the validity of such data to detect migraine in pregnant populations is unestablished. We validated algorithms to identify a history of migraine among pregnant individuals using health administrative data and population-representative self-report data.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We included N = 8824 females in Ontario, Canada with a documented pregnancy with an estimated conception date from 1 September 2005 to 31 December 2021 who completed the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) within 5 years before conception. We created algorithms using different combinations of diagnostic codes for headache disorders and migraine-specific drug claims with varying lookback periods before conception. We compared their performance to self-reported migraine diagnoses from the CCHS. Measures of validity were sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and agreement.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of self-reported migraine from the CCHS was 18% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16%, 19%). The prevalence using administrative data depended on the definition (range: 2%-25%). All algorithms had high specificity (81.7%-98.9%), while sensitivity varied (6.1%-53.2%). The algorithm requiring ≥2 physician visits or ≥1 hospitalizations or emergency department visits with diagnostic codes International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision: 346/International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision: G43, with a lifetime lookback, had high specificity (94.0%; 95% CI: 93.1%, 94.8%) and negative predictive value (86.3%; 95% CI: 85.0%, 87.6%) and modest sensitivity (30.4%; 95% CI: 27.3%, 33.6%) and positive predictive value (51.9%; 95% CI: 46.8%, 57.0%). Agreement was fair ( κ = 0.29; 95% CI: 0.25, 0.33).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Longitudinally linked health administrative data are effective at identifying pregnant individuals with migraine, with high specificity and reasonable sensitivity.</p>","PeriodicalId":11779,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology","volume":" ","pages":"599-605"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144247052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}