{"title":"Health disparities associated with exposure to animal feeding operations, including concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs), in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, USA.","authors":"Ji-Young Son, Michelle L Bell","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/adc291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adc291","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite growing evidence of health risks posed by animal feeding operations (AFOs) including concentrated AFOs (CAFOs), few studies have explored the associated disproportionate health burdens. We investigated risk of cause-specific mortality associated with AFO/CAFOs and related disparities for North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (2000-2020). We estimated associations between AFO/CAFO exposure and mortality (anemia, asthma, COPD, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, and kidney disease) using logistic regression. For each participant, we applied two exposure metrics based on buffers around population-weighted ZIP-code centroids: (1) binary exposure based on presence or absence of AFOs/CAFOs, and (2) exposure intensity (no exposure, low, medium, and high). We investigated health disparities by individual-level (sex, race/ethnicity, age, education, marital status) and community-level (race, income, poverty, education, racial isolation, educational isolation) characteristics. Presence of AFO/CAFOs was associated with higher risks of cause-specific mortality, particularly for diabetes mellitus or cerebrovascular disease, across all states. People in ZIP codes within ⩽10 km of AFO/CAFO were 1.028 (95% Confidence Interval 1.014, 1.042), 1.039 (1.025, 1.053), and 1.053 (1.031, 1.075) times more likely to die from cerebrovascular disease compared to those in ZIP codes without AFO/CAFO exposure for North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, respectively. We found disproportionate health burden associated with AFO/CAFO exposure in some subpopulations, however results varied by state. Our findings provide evidence of higher mortality risk with high AFO/CAFO exposure, with some populations facing disproportionate health burden, although such relationships differed by location.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12364031/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144947323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rebecca Logsdon Muenich, Sanskriti Aryal, Amanda J Ashworth, Michelle L Bell, Melanie R Boudreau, Stephanie A Cunningham, K Colton Flynn, Kerry A Hamilton, Ting Liu, Michael L Mashtare, Natalie G Nelson, Barira Rashid, Arghajeet Saha, Danica Schaffer-Smith, Callie Showalter, Aureliane Tchamdja, Jada Thompson
{"title":"Gaps in U.S. livestock data are a barrier to effective environmental and disease management.","authors":"Rebecca Logsdon Muenich, Sanskriti Aryal, Amanda J Ashworth, Michelle L Bell, Melanie R Boudreau, Stephanie A Cunningham, K Colton Flynn, Kerry A Hamilton, Ting Liu, Michael L Mashtare, Natalie G Nelson, Barira Rashid, Arghajeet Saha, Danica Schaffer-Smith, Callie Showalter, Aureliane Tchamdja, Jada Thompson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/adb050","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/adb050","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Livestock are a critical part of our food systems, yet their abundance globally has been cited as a driver of many environmental and human health concerns. Issues such as soil, water, and air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, aquifer depletion, antimicrobial resistance genes, and zoonotic disease outbreaks have all been linked to livestock operations. While many studies have examined these issues at depth at local scales, it has been difficult to complete studies at regional or national scales due to the dearth of livestock data, hindering pollution mitigation or response time for tracing and monitoring disease outbreaks. In the U.S. the National Agricultural Statistics Service completes a Census once every 5 years that includes livestock, but data are only available at the county level leaving little inference that can be made at such a coarse spatiotemporal scale. While other data exist through some regulated permitting programs, there are significant data gaps in where livestock are raised, how many livestock are on site at a given time, and how these livestock and, importantly, their waste emissions, are managed. In this perspective, we highlight the need for better livestock data, then discuss the accessibility and key limitations of currently available data. We then feature some recent work to improve livestock data availability through remote-sensing and machine learning, ending with our takeaways to address these data needs for the future of environmental and public health management.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 3","pages":"031001"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11811603/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143406223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Edgar Castro, James Healy, Abbie Liu, Yaguang Wei, Anna Kosheleva, Joel Schwartz
{"title":"Interactive effects between extreme temperatures and PM<sub>2.5</sub> on cause-specific mortality in thirteen U.S. states.","authors":"Edgar Castro, James Healy, Abbie Liu, Yaguang Wei, Anna Kosheleva, Joel Schwartz","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d1","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The extent and robustness of the interaction between exposures to heat and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> is unclear and little is known of the interaction between exposures to cold and ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub>. Clarifying these interactions, if any, is crucial due to the omnipresence of PM<sub>2.5</sub> in the atmosphere and increasing scope and frequency of extreme temperature events. To investigate both of these interactions, we merged 6 073 575 individual-level mortality records from thirteen states spanning seventeen years with 1 km daily PM<sub>2.5</sub> predictions from sophisticated prediction model and 1 km meteorology from Daymet V4. A time-stratified, bidirectional case-crossover design was used to control for confounding by individual-level, long-term and cyclic weekly characteristics. We fitted conditional logistic regressions with an interaction term between PM<sub>2.5</sub> and extreme temperature events to investigate the potential interactive effects on mortality. Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure has the greatest effect on mortality by all internal causes in the 2 d moving average exposure window. Additionally, we found consistently synergistic interactions between a 10 <i>μ</i>g m<sup>-3</sup> increase in the 2 d moving average of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and extreme heat with interaction odds ratios of 1.013 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.026), 1.024 (95% CI: 1.002, 1.046), and 1.033 (95% CI: 0.991, 1.077) for deaths by all internal causes, circulatory causes, and respiratory causes, respectively, which represent 75%, 156%, and 214% increases in the coefficient estimates for PM<sub>2.5</sub> on those days. We also found evidence of interactions on the additive scale with corresponding relative excess risks due to interaction (RERIs) of 0.013 (95% CI: 0.003, 0.021), 0.020 (95% CI: 0.008, 0.031), and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.015, 0.036). Interactions with other PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure windows were more pronounced. For extreme cold, our results were suggestive of an antagonistic relationship. These results suggest that ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> interacts synergistically with exposure to extreme heat, yielding greater risks for mortality than only either exposure alone.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 1","pages":"014011"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11622441/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142794697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Melissa Beresford, Ellis Adams, Jessica Budds, Leila M Harris, Wendy Jepson, Tennille Marley, Chloe Nguyen, Amber Pearson, Anaís Delilah Roque, Asher Y Rosinger, Sameer H Shah, Matthew Stellbauer, Amber Wutich
{"title":"Can household water sharing advance water security? An integrative review of water entitlements and entitlement failures.","authors":"Melissa Beresford, Ellis Adams, Jessica Budds, Leila M Harris, Wendy Jepson, Tennille Marley, Chloe Nguyen, Amber Pearson, Anaís Delilah Roque, Asher Y Rosinger, Sameer H Shah, Matthew Stellbauer, Amber Wutich","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad9851","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad9851","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>An increasing number of studies find that water sharing-the non-market transfer of privately held water between households-is a ubiquitous informal practice around the world and a primary way that households respond to water insecurity. Yet, a key question about household water sharing remains: is water sharing a viable path that can help advance household water security? Or should water sharing be understood as a symptom of water <i>in</i>security in wait for more formalized solutions? Here, we address this question by applying Sen's entitlement framework in an integrative review of empirical scholarship on household water sharing. Our review shows that when interhousehold water sharing is governed by established and well-functioning norms it can serve as a reliable transfer entitlement that bolsters household water security. However, when water sharing occurs outside of established norms (triggered by broader entitlement failures) it is often associated with significant emotional distress that may exacerbate conditions of water <i>in</i>security. These findings suggest that stable, norm-based water sharing arrangements may offer a viable, adaptive solution to households facing water insecurity. Nevertheless, more scholarship is needed to better understand when and how norm-based water transfer entitlements fail, the capacity of water sharing practices to evolve into lasting normative entitlements, and the impact of interhousehold water sharing on intrahousehold water security.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12994109/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147480160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Health benefits of decarbonization and clean air policies in Beijing and China.","authors":"Gregor Kiesewetter, Shaohui Zhang, Jun Liu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c65","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c65","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Although China has seen strong reductions in air pollution levels in the last decade, PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations still exceed the WHO Guideline several times, causing a substantial burden of mortality and morbidity. With many 'low hanging fruits' in terms of abatement measures already taken, further improvements will be more difficult and likely require different strategies than pursued so far. This study looks into the trends expected under current energy policies and air pollution control legislation and analyses the source contributions to ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> in China, with a special focus on the megacity of Beijing. Although reductions are foreseen, China appears not yet on track to meet its long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions nor the future national air quality standards. Going beyond current policies, we analyze effects of measures which tackle both issues and quantify health co-benefits from further decarbonization policies required to meet the national target of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the potential for further air pollution mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 12","pages":"124051"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11565186/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142647044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Long-term patterns of post-fire harvest diverge among ownerships in the Pacific West, U.S.A.","authors":"Aaron Zuspan, Matthew J Reilly, E Henry Lee","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad8e75","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad8e75","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Post-fire harvest (PFH) is a forest management practice designed to salvage value from burned timber, mitigate safety hazards from dead trees, reduce long-term fuels, and prepare sites for replanting. Despite public controversy and extensive ecological research, little is known about how much PFH occurs on private and public lands in the U.S. Pacific West, or how practices changed with shifting forest policy and increasing area burned over the last three decades. We mapped PFH across 2.2 M burned hectares in California, Oregon, and Washington between 1986-2017 and used time series intervention analysis to compare trends in area, rate (% of burned area harvested), and mean patch size between private (0.5 M ha) and federal (1.6 M ha) forest land and across a gradient of burn severity. Harvest rates varied by ownership (4.9% federal, 18.6% private, 8.0% overall), and practices evolved and diverged over the study period. PFH area and rate declined across all ownerships in the mid-1990s during a period of reduced fire activity. As area burned increased between the early 2000s and late 2010s, PFH area rebounded and surpassed late-1980s levels, while rates remained relatively low. On federal lands, PFH practices shifted in the early-to-mid 1990s towards lower rates (10.3%-3.8%) and smaller patches (6.0-3.3 ha), following policy changes and increased litigation. PFH rates on federal lands decreased at all levels of burn severity, with the largest decreases (6.2%-1.2%) in forests with low tree mortality (i.e. fire refugia). Conversely, private PFH rates and mean patch sizes more than doubled in forests burned at very low-to-moderate severity. Our results highlight how PFH practices have shifted with policy, socio-economic pressure, and increasing area burned over 31 years in the Pacific West. A similar area of PFH is now dispersed over larger fires, with practices diverging substantially between ownerships.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11998924/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143985101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiachen Zhang, Junhyeong Park, Nancy Bui, Sara Forestieri, Elizabeth Mazmanian, Yucheng He, Cory Parmer, David C Quiros
{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions from the San Pedro Bay Ports and future policy implications.","authors":"Jiachen Zhang, Junhyeong Park, Nancy Bui, Sara Forestieri, Elizabeth Mazmanian, Yucheng He, Cory Parmer, David C Quiros","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7747","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7747","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, collectively known as the San Pedro Bay Ports, serve as vital gateways for freight movement in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic and other influencing factors disrupted freight movement and led to unprecedented cargo surge, vessel congestion, and increased air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from seaport and connected freight system operations beginning in June 2020. In this study, we conducted the first comprehensive monthly assessment of the excess particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen (NO<sub>x</sub>), and carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions due to the heightened congestion and freight transport activity from ocean-going vessels (OGVs), trucks, locomotives, and cargo handling equipment (CHE) supporting seaport operations. Excess emissions peaked in October 2021 at 23 tons of NO<sub>x</sub> per day and 2001 tons of CO<sub>2</sub> per day. The strategic queuing system implemented in November 2021 significantly reduced the number of anchored and loitering OGVs and their emissions near the ports, even during continued high cargo throughput until Summer 2022. Looking forward, we analyzed projected emissions benefits of adopted California Air Resources Board regulations requiring cleaner and zero-emission trucks, locomotives, and CHE over the next decade. If a repeated port congestion event were to occur in 2035, NO<sub>x</sub> emissions from land-based freight transport should be lessened by more than 80%. Our study underscores the potential emissions impacts of disruptions to the freight transport network and the critical need to continue reducing its emissions in California and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 11","pages":"114023"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11457959/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142389020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tan Zou, Eric A Davidson, Robert D Sabo, Graham K MacDonald, Xin Zhang
{"title":"Disparities in nitrogen and phosphorus management across time and space: a case study of the Chesapeake Bay using the <i>CAFE</i> framework.","authors":"Tan Zou, Eric A Davidson, Robert D Sabo, Graham K MacDonald, Xin Zhang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad786c","DOIUrl":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad786c","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Efficient management of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) is imperative for sustainable agriculture, resource conservation, and reducing environmental pollution. Despite progress in on-farm practices and urban wastewater treatment in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed, limited attention has been given to nutrient transport, use, and handling between farms and urban environments. This study uses the hierarchical <i>CAFE</i> (Cropping system, Animal-crop system, Food system, and Ecosystem) framework to evaluate nutrient management performances within the watershed. We first develop a three-decade, county-level nutrient budget database (1985-2019), then analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of N and P budgets, as well as N and P use efficiencies, within the four <i>CAFE</i> hierarchies. Our results indicate a sizable increase in potential N and P losses beyond crop fields (i.e. in the Animal-crop system, Food system, and Ecosystem), surpassing losses from cropland in over 90% of counties. To address these system-wide trade-offs, we estimate the nutrient resources in waste streams beyond croplands, which, if recovered and recycled, could theoretically offset mineral fertilizer inputs in over 60% of counties. Additionally, the growing imbalance in excess N versus P across systems, which increases the N:P ratio of potential losses, could pose an emerging risk to downstream aquatic ecosystems. By utilizing a systematic approach, our novel application of the <i>CAFE</i> framework reveals trade-offs and synergies in nutrient management outcomes that transcend agro-environmental and political boundaries, underscores disparities in N and P management, and helps to identify unique opportunities for enhancing holistic nutrient management across systems within the CB watershed.</p>","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"19 11","pages":"110016"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11977706/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143985080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bethany B Cutts,Uchenna Osia,Laura A Bray,Angela R Harris,Hanna C Long,Hannah Goins,Sallie McLean,Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson,Tal Ben-Horin,Astrid Schnetzer
{"title":"Shifting power: data democracy in engineering solutions.","authors":"Bethany B Cutts,Uchenna Osia,Laura A Bray,Angela R Harris,Hanna C Long,Hannah Goins,Sallie McLean,Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson,Tal Ben-Horin,Astrid Schnetzer","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7614","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"42 1","pages":"101004"},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Paulo J Murillo-Sandoval, Steven E Sesnie, Manuel Eduardo Ordoñez Armas, Nicholas Magliocca, Beth Tellman, Jennifer A Devine, Erik Nielsen and Kendra McSweeney
{"title":"Central America’s agro-ecological suitability for cultivating coca, Erythroxylum spp","authors":"Paulo J Murillo-Sandoval, Steven E Sesnie, Manuel Eduardo Ordoñez Armas, Nicholas Magliocca, Beth Tellman, Jennifer A Devine, Erik Nielsen and Kendra McSweeney","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7276","url":null,"abstract":"We assess how much of Central America is likely to be agriculturally suitable for cultivating coca (Erythroxylum spp), the main ingredient in cocaine. Since 2017, organized criminal groups (not smallholders) have been establishing coca plantations in Central America for cocaine production. This has broken South America’s long monopoly on coca leaf production for the global cocaine trade and raised concerns about future expansion in the isthmus. Yet it is not clear how much of Central America has suitable biophysical characteristics for a crop domesticated in, and long associated with the Andean region. We combine geo-located data from coca cultivation locations in Colombia with reported coca sites in Central America to model the soil, climate, and topography of Central American landscapes that might be suitable for coca production under standard management practices. We find that 47% of northern Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize) has biophysical characteristics that appear highly suitable for coca-growing, while most of southern Central America does not. Biophysical factors, then, are unlikely to constrain coca’s spread in northern Central America. Whether or not the crop is more widely planted will depend on complex and multi-scalar social, economic, and political factors. Among them is whether Central American countries and their allies will continue to prioritize militarized approaches to the drug trade through coca eradication and drug interdiction, which are likely to induce further expansion, not contain it. Novel approaches to the drug trade will be required to avert this outcome.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}