Environmental Research Letters最新文献_第2页

Detecting atmospheric oxidation in the PM2.5 and ozone multilayer complex network 检测 PM2.5 和臭氧多层复合网络中的大气氧化作用

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7869

Na Ying, Yi Tang, Di Wang, Jingfang Fan, Zhidan Zhao, Zhigang Xue and Yu Liu

{"title":"Detecting atmospheric oxidation in the PM2.5 and ozone multilayer complex network","authors":"Na Ying, Yi Tang, Di Wang, Jingfang Fan, Zhidan Zhao, Zhigang Xue and Yu Liu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7869","url":null,"abstract":"Reducing the levels of Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) is essential for further improving air quality in China. The intricate and non-linear interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on a national scale over long-term records are not well understood. Here, we proposed a novel multi-layer network approach to bridge the gap. Our findings reveal that the variability of O3 precedes that of PM2.5 by one day. The degree, weighted degree, and edge distance follow a power-law decay distribution, suggesting that their relationship is not a random process. O3 concentration in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and eastern Shandong Province significantly impacts the PM2.5 levels in surrounding areas. Conversely, PM2.5 concentrations in Shandong Province, Henan Province, YRD and Pearl River Delta (PRD) have a strong influence on O3 levels. Moreover, we quantified the seasonality of the interactions and elucidated the underlying reasons. The results revealed the interactions between PM2.5 and O3 are intricately tied to atmospheric oxidation processes. More specifically, in summer, the atmospheric oxidation has a strong impact on the interactions in key regions, such as the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei,YRD region and Fenwei Plain. However, the PRD region experiences a more pronounced effect from atmospheric oxidation on this relationship in winter. These findings demonstrate that it is crucial to effectively regulate atmospheric oxidation to mitigate PM2.5 and O3. Our results also serve as a valuable methodological framework for understanding the characteristics of pollutants.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Research on carbon emission reduction based on responsibility of four participants with consideration of circular economy factors in China 基于中国循环经济因素的四位参与者责任的碳减排研究

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad76c1

Ruosi Huang, Junhong Yu and Shuai Wang

{"title":"Research on carbon emission reduction based on responsibility of four participants with consideration of circular economy factors in China","authors":"Ruosi Huang, Junhong Yu and Shuai Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad76c1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad76c1","url":null,"abstract":"The complex relationship between carbon emissions and economic development has become a global issue. In China, the pressure to reduce carbon emissions is very great because the responsibility of four participants for economic activities has not been able to break away from the linear economic model of ‘produce-consume-discard’. In this paper, four categories of participants, namely extractors/producers, manufacturers, consumers and recyclers, are classified according to the life cycle framework, and the impact of their activities on carbon emission reduction is analysed taking into account circular economy factors. The results of the study show that during the rapid development of China’s economy from 2005 to 2021, there is a significant correlation between carbon emission reduction and the activity behaviour of the four participants with consideration of circular economy factors. In particular, the activity behaviours of the extractors/producers, manufacturers and consumers have a very strong correlation with the carbon emission reduction. Our findings indicate that China should continue to exert efforts in the existing circular economy model to achieve the double carbon goals.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"213 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

River algal blooms can be estimated by remote sensing reflectance 河流藻华可通过遥感反射率进行估算

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7043

Tonghui Huang, Rui Xia, Kai Zhang, Yan Chen, Yuanxin Ren, Jinxi Song, Yao Wang and Chengjian Liu

{"title":"River algal blooms can be estimated by remote sensing reflectance","authors":"Tonghui Huang, Rui Xia, Kai Zhang, Yan Chen, Yuanxin Ren, Jinxi Song, Yao Wang and Chengjian Liu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7043","url":null,"abstract":"River eutrophication is difficult to diagnose and estimate quantitatively because of its complex degradation mechanism in large river systems. Conventional monitoring and modeling methods are limited to accurately revealing the evolution process and trends of river aquatic organisms. In the present study, based on HJ-1A/1B CCD sensor, combined with genetic algorithm (GA) and regression tree (GART), a remote sensing inversion prediction model was established; the model can estimate algal blooms in the Han River affected by China’s Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWTP). During the outbreak of algal blooms, the near-infrared band reflectance evidently increased between 2009 and 2015, with increasing algal density. The algal density in the downstream of the Han River has a nearly synchronous positive change with the reflectance in the B4 (near-infrared) band and a nearly synchronous reverse change with the B1 (blue) band. B1 and B4 screened by GA reduced redundancy by 14%, leading to a good prediction performance (R2 = 0.88). According to GART and partial dependence analysis, the B4 band is a crucial characterization factor of algal blooms in the Han River. When the remote sensing band was in the range of B1 ⩾ 0.085 and B4 ⩽ 0.101, the algal density was lower than 0.15 × 107 cells l−1, indicating no algal bloom in the downstream of the Han River. When B4 was >0.103 and B1 ⩽ 0.076, algal density was higher than 1 × 107 cells l−1 and algal blooms were very likely to occur. These findings could provide a scientific reference for diagnosing and predicting large-scale water ecological degradation in similar watersheds.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward integrated dam assessment: evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan 大坝综合评估：评估埃塞俄比亚文艺复兴大坝对苏丹的多方面影响

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744

Mohammed Basheer, Khalid Siddig, Zuhal Elnour, Mosab Ahmed and Claudia Ringler

{"title":"Toward integrated dam assessment: evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan","authors":"Mohammed Basheer, Khalid Siddig, Zuhal Elnour, Mosab Ahmed and Claudia Ringler","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7744","url":null,"abstract":"The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan’s Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142257278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Combining price and non-price interventions for water conservation 结合价格和非价格干预措施促进节水

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad747b

Vivek Vivek, Tapan Kar, Sesha Meka and Deepak Malghan

{"title":"Combining price and non-price interventions for water conservation","authors":"Vivek Vivek, Tapan Kar, Sesha Meka and Deepak Malghan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad747b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad747b","url":null,"abstract":"Marginal pricing has long been the instrument of choice to address water conservation challenges. More recently, non-price behavioral interventions have emerged as an alternative. However, there is limited data on the relative efficacies of price and non-price interventions. We report results from long-term field experiments studying unit-level water conservation responses to both price and non-price interventions in the same group of households (n = 64 186 household-days). Conservation habits, attitude-action gaps, principal-agent incongruities, and billing cycles help account for the heterogeneity in response between households, and across time. A non-price behavior modification intervention before the introduction of marginal pricing resulted in a large and significant effect on treated households (33%). The subsequent introduction of marginal volumetric pricing also reduced water use (8%, for previously untreated households). However, this average price effect masks how a large share (21%) of households increased water use, or how a mere 12% of the households accounted for all the aggregate reduction in water use. We investigated such heterogeneous responses as a systematic conservation maximization design question beyond statistical variance in individual responses. We used daily water consumption measurements across three years alongside a household survey to delineate structural and agentic barriers to conservation behavior. Our analysis reveals how combining price and non-price behavioral interventions could hold the key to achieving conservation effects that are both large and persistent.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Behavioral plasticity of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) provides new insights for urban wildlife management in metropolis Shanghai, China 浣熊犬（Nyctereutes procyonoides）的行为可塑性为中国上海的城市野生动物管理提供了新见解

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7309

Yihan Wang, Qianqian Zhao, Lishan Tang, Weiming Lin, Zhuojin Zhang, Yixin Diao, Yue Weng, Bojian Gu, Yidi Feng, Qing Zhao and Fang Wang

{"title":"Behavioral plasticity of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) provides new insights for urban wildlife management in metropolis Shanghai, China","authors":"Yihan Wang, Qianqian Zhao, Lishan Tang, Weiming Lin, Zhuojin Zhang, Yixin Diao, Yue Weng, Bojian Gu, Yidi Feng, Qing Zhao and Fang Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7309","url":null,"abstract":"As urbanization exposes wildlife to new challenging conditions and environmental pressures, species that exhibit a high degree of behavioral plasticity are considered potentially capable of colonizing and adapting to urban environments. However, differences in the behavior of populations that inhabit urban and suburban landscapes pose unprecedented challenges to traditional methods in wildlife management which often fail to consider a species’ needs or mitigate human–wildlife conflict due to changes in species behavior in response to intensive human interference. Here, we investigate differences in the home range, diel activity, movement, and diet of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) between residential districts and forest park habitats in Shanghai, China. Using GPS tracking data from 22 individuals, we find that the home ranges of raccoon dogs in residential districts (10.4 ± 8.8 ha) was 91.26% smaller than those in forest parks (119.6 ± 135.4 ha). We also find that raccoon dogs in residential districts exhibited significantly lower nocturnal movement speeds (134.55 ± 50.68 m h−1) compared to their forest park counterparts (263.22 ± 84.972 m h−1). An analysis of 528 fecal samples showed a significantly higher intake of ingredients from human food in residential districts (χ2 = 4.691, P = 0.026), which indicates that urban raccoon dog foraging strategies differ from the forest park population due to the presence of discarded human food, cat food, and wet garbage in residential districts. Based on our findings, we propose a community-based wildlife management strategy and suggest modifying the current design of residential districts. Our results underscore the importance of mammal behavior studies in urban biodiversity management and provide a scientific basis for mitigating human–wildlife conflicts in urban environments in and beyond our study area.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of afforestation on a regional carbon sink: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta, China 植树造林对区域碳汇的影响：中国长江三角洲案例研究

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6e08

Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Zhen Yu and Wenping Yuan

{"title":"The effect of afforestation on a regional carbon sink: a case study in the Yangtze River Delta, China","authors":"Yuan Zhao, Xu Yue, Hao Zhou, Zhen Yu and Wenping Yuan","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6e08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6e08","url":null,"abstract":"As one of the most densely populated and economically developed regions in China, Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has confronted with substantial land cover change (LCC) over the past several decades. This study investigates the impact of climate change and LCC on carbon dynamics in the YRD region for 1990–2019, taking advantage of a high-resolution vegetation model and two well-established LCC data in China. Simulated gross primary productivity increases from 0.52 ± 0.02 Pg[C] yr−1 in the 1990s to 0.57 ± 0.01 Pg[C] yr−1 in the 2010s with the major contribution by CO2 fertilization effect. The regional carbon sink, measured as net biospheric productivity (NBP), peaks at 0.03 Pg[C] yr−1 in the 2000s but remains stable or slightly decreases in the 2010s depending on the LCC datasets. Forests act as the main contributors to the enhancement of the regional carbon sink, with negative contributions from the loss of shrubland and grassland. The stable NBP during 2000–2019 suggests a potential slowdown in the efficacy of carbon sink as forests mature. While forest expansion significantly promotes NBP, the carbon released during the replacement of other vegetation types suggests that afforestation efforts need to be complemented with associated supportive measures to prevent newly forested areas from becoming net carbon sources.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"275 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Different trajectory patterns of ocean surface drifters modulated by near-inertial oscillations 受近惯性振荡调制的洋面漂流器的不同轨迹模式

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7745

Yuhang Zheng, Wei Wu, Minyang Wang, Yuhong Zhang and Yan Du

{"title":"Different trajectory patterns of ocean surface drifters modulated by near-inertial oscillations","authors":"Yuhang Zheng, Wei Wu, Minyang Wang, Yuhong Zhang and Yan Du","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7745","url":null,"abstract":"Near-inertial oscillations (NIOs) are widely observed dynamic motions in the global ocean, with a frequency related to earth’s rotation. Using a particle trajectory model, we found the combined influence of mesoscale eddies and NIOs could produce distinctive flower-like trajectories, which are a special case of near-inertial trajectories and were observed by surface drifters released within an anticyclone eddy in the South China Sea in 2021. The energy budget indicates that wind and geostrophic eddy currents are crucial in generating near-inertial energy during the flower-like trajectories. Furthermore, the particle trajectory model revealed variations in periods and widths of the near-inertial trajectory with latitudes. The width of near-inertial trajectories can exceed 8 km in the near-equatorial region and reach 3–6 km in the mid-latitude region (20°–50°). The ratios of near-inertial velocity to background velocity, defined as near-inertial trajectory shape index (NITSIs), lead to arc-shaped (0.5 < NITSI < 1.0), overlapping semi-circular (NITSI > 1.0), and near-circular trajectories (NITSI ≫ 1.0). Globally, approximately 1/3 of the drifters’ lifespan featured clear near-inertial trajectories, with a significant presence in most middle latitudes and the largest NITSI in the north Pacific westerly. These findings highlight the importance of NIOs and suggest their substantial impact on local surface matter distribution, trajectory prediction, and marine rescue operations.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From trees to rain: enhancement of cloud glaciation and precipitation by pollen 从树到雨：花粉对云冰川和降水的促进作用

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad747a

Jan Kretzschmar, Mira Pöhlker, Frank Stratmann, Heike Wex, Christian Wirth, Johannes Quaas

{"title":"From trees to rain: enhancement of cloud glaciation and precipitation by pollen","authors":"Jan Kretzschmar, Mira Pöhlker, Frank Stratmann, Heike Wex, Christian Wirth, Johannes Quaas","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad747a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad747a","url":null,"abstract":"The ability of pollen to enable the glaciation of supercooled liquid water has been demonstrated in laboratory studies; however, the potential large-scale effect of plants and pollen on clouds, precipitation and climate is pressing knowledge to better understand and project clouds in the current and future climate. Combining ground-based measurements of pollen concentrations and satellite observations of cloud properties within the United States, we show that enhanced pollen concentrations during springtime lead to an increase in cloud ice fraction of up to 0.1 in the temperature regime where pollen are considered to act as INP (−15<inline-formula>\u0000<tex-math><?CDATA $,^circ$?></tex-math><mml:math overflow=\"scroll\"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mstyle scriptlevel=\"0\"></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href=\"erlad747aieqn1.gif\"></inline-graphic></inline-formula>C and −25<inline-formula>\u0000<tex-math><?CDATA $,^circ$?></tex-math><mml:math overflow=\"scroll\"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mstyle scriptlevel=\"0\"></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math><inline-graphic xlink:href=\"erlad747aieqn2.gif\"></inline-graphic></inline-formula>C ). We further establish the link from the pollen-induced increase in cloud ice to a higher precipitation frequency. In light of anthropogenic climate change, the extended and strengthened pollen season and future alterations in biodiversity can introduce a localized climate forcing and a modification of the precipitation frequency and intensity.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forecasts based on convolutional neural network with sea level pressure precursor 基于卷积神经网络和海平面气压前兆的印度洋偶极子（IOD）预报

IF 6.7 2区环境科学与生态学

Environmental Research Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad7522

Yuqi Tao, Chunhua Qiu, Dongxiao Wang, Mingting Li, Guangli Zhang

{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forecasts based on convolutional neural network with sea level pressure precursor","authors":"Yuqi Tao, Chunhua Qiu, Dongxiao Wang, Mingting Li, Guangli Zhang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad7522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7522","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is crucial because of its significant impact on regional and global climates. While traditional dynamic and empirical models suffer from systematic errors due to nonlinear processes, convolutional neural networks (CNN) are nonlinear in nature and have demonstrated remarkable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD forecasting skills based on oceanic predictors, particularly sea surface temperature and heat content. However, it is difficult to measure heat content and easily introduces uncertainties, prompting the need to explore atmospheric predictors for IOD forecasts. Based on sensitivity prediction experiments, we identified the sea level pressure (SLP) signal as a crucial predictor, which forecasts IOD at a 7 month lead. In addition, the CNN model improves monthly forecasting accuracy while reducing errors by 13.43%. Utilizing the heatmap analysis, we elucidated that the multi-seasonal predictability of the IOD primarily originates from mid-latitude climate variability. Besides ENSO signals in the Pacific Ocean, our study highlights the significant impact of remote climate forcing in the South Indian Ocean, tropical North Indian Ocean, and Northwest Pacific Ocean on IOD forecasts. By introducing the SLP precursor and extratropical zones into IOD forecasts, our study offers fresh insights into the underlying dynamics of IOD evolution.","PeriodicalId":11747,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":"09 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142213503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0