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Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part I: Financial Markets and Monetary Policy 2019冠状病毒病大流行的经济现实和后果——第一部分:金融市场和货币政策
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2020-03-30 DOI: 10.20955/es.2020.10
F. Martin
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引用次数: 5
Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model 财政政策与COVID-19:来自定量模型的见解
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2020-03-27 DOI: 10.20955/es.2020.8
Miguel Faria-e-Castro
{"title":"Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model","authors":"Miguel Faria-e-Castro","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.8","url":null,"abstract":"infection-control actions have disrupted economic activity across the globe. In response, fiscal authorities are designing and implementing stabilization packages to mitigate the effects of rising unemployment and business closures.1 In this essay, I describe the analysis in a recent working paper (Faria-e-Castro, 2020) that uses a macroeconomic model to think about the effects of some of these fiscal policies in the event of a pandemic. The model is used to evaluate the effects of five types of policies on household income and consumption. I find that increases in unemployment insurance (UI) most effectively mitigate the effect of a pandemic on household income.","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"141 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76612875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Geographic Disparity in the U.S. Population 美国人口的地域差异
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2020.27
Ryan Mather, B. Ravikumar
{"title":"Geographic Disparity in the U.S. Population","authors":"Ryan Mather, B. Ravikumar","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.27","url":null,"abstract":"About half the U.S. population resides on less than 200,000 square miles; the rest is spread over more than 3 million square miles.","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76136732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Renewable Sources of Electricity: Where Excess Capacity Is Built-In 可再生能源:产能过剩的地方
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2020.42
Diego Mendez-Carbajo
{"title":"Renewable Sources of Electricity: Where Excess Capacity Is Built-In","authors":"Diego Mendez-Carbajo","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.42","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76337862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Recessions Have Affected Household Net Worth, 1990-2017: Uneven Experiences by Wealth Quantile 经济衰退如何影响1990-2017年的家庭净值:财富分位数的不均匀经历
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2020.38
Diego Mendez-Carbajo
{"title":"How Recessions Have Affected Household Net Worth, 1990-2017: Uneven Experiences by Wealth Quantile","authors":"Diego Mendez-Carbajo","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.38","url":null,"abstract":"Governors of the Federal Reserve System, tracks household balance sheets and other characteristics. Plotting the data allows us to compare the evolution of the net worth of households during and after the past three recessions (that is, before the current recession).1 Here, households are divided into quantiles according to wealth: the top 1%, the next 9%, the next 40%, and the bottom 50%. These quantiles were affected differently, which can be explained by the asset composition of household wealth,2 most notably during and after the “Great Recession.” Figure 1 shows gains in the nominal household net worth of all wealth quantiles during the eight-month recession from July 1990 to March 1991. By the time that recession ended, the top 1% and the bottom 50% of households had gained slightly more than 10% in their net worth. All of the wealth quantiles gained some net worth out to 20 quarters (5 years) after the business cycle peak, although the gains for the bottom 50% of households were uneven. How Recessions Have Affected Household Net Worth, 1990-2017: Uneven Experiences by Wealth Quantile","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"420 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79807081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes 坏月亮升起?不确定性冲击与经济结果
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/ES.2019.6
Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, Michael T. Owyang
{"title":"A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes","authors":"Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, Michael T. Owyang","doi":"10.20955/ES.2019.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2019.6","url":null,"abstract":"the measurement of uncertainty and its effects on economic outcomes and financial market developments. A rise in uncertainty is widely believed to have detrimental effects on macroeconomic, microeconomic, and financial market outcomes and induce responses from monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policymakers. For example, at his press conference following the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said,","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76720270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession 尾部风险:第2部分:大衰退后缺失的复苏
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/ES.2019.19
J. Kozlowski
{"title":"Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession","authors":"J. Kozlowski","doi":"10.20955/ES.2019.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2019.19","url":null,"abstract":"first declines and then exhibits a sharp rebound toward a stable trend line. Following the Great Recession of 2007-09, however, this rebound is missing; the missing recovery is what some economists call “secular stagnation.”1 For example, Figure 1 shows real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States. The dashed line is a linear trend that fits data for 1950-2007. In 2015, real GDP was 12 percent below the trend; this is the so-called missing recovery. What caused the missing recovery after the Financial Crisis? In Part 1 of this three-part series, I argued that tail risk increased after the Great Recession; that is, the perceived probability that a large negative shock to the economy would occur increased after the 2007-09 recession. In this Part 2 essay, I discuss how this increase in tail risk can help us understand the missing recovery. Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"438 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76673850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
China’s Innovation and Global Technology Diffusion 中国创新与全球技术扩散
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/ES.2019.7
Ana Maria Santacreu, M. Peake
{"title":"China’s Innovation and Global Technology Diffusion","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu, M. Peake","doi":"10.20955/ES.2019.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2019.7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82867934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets 尾部风险:第三部分，安全和流动资产的回报
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2019.20
J. Kozlowski
{"title":"Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets","authors":"J. Kozlowski","doi":"10.20955/es.2019.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2019.20","url":null,"abstract":"the Financial Crisis of 2007-09. This is not particularly surprising: There are many reasons, from an increased demand for safe assets to monetary policy responses, for why risk-free rates fall during a period of financial turmoil. However, even after financial markets calmed down, this state of affairs persisted. In fact, by 2018, several years after the crisis, government bond yields showed no sign of rebounding. Figure 1 shows the change in long-term government yields for Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom.1 Intuitively, government bonds have two key attributes: safety and liquidity. Safety refers to the observation that, different from risks for other assets in the economy, the risk of default for U.S. government bonds is almost zero, implying that at maturity the investor will almost surely receive the principal amount. Liquidity refers to the fact that government bonds are quite similar to cash, implying that if the investor needs the money before maturity, he Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84120979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Are U.S. Housing Markets Hot, Hot, Hot? 美国房地产市场热、热、热吗?
Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/ES.2019.21
Matthew Famiglietti, Carlos Garriga, Aaron Hedlund
{"title":"Are U.S. Housing Markets Hot, Hot, Hot?","authors":"Matthew Famiglietti, Carlos Garriga, Aaron Hedlund","doi":"10.20955/ES.2019.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2019.21","url":null,"abstract":"the longest economic expansion on record. This long period of stable growth started after the 2007-09 Great Recession, which is remembered for both the turmoil in financial markets and the collapse in the housing market. Recent empirical work has documented that, in addition to large declines in housing prices (often exceeding 30 percent in some areas), selling delays rose significantly as average time on the market (TOM) increased by several months.1 For the purpose of this essay, we define housing Are U.S. Housing Markets Hot, Hot, Hot?","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72894360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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