Economic Synopses最新文献

Income Segregation and Income Inequality 收入隔离与收入不平等

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.5

Hannah Rubinton, M. Isaacson

引用次数: 0

Understanding the Speed and Size of Bank Runs in Historical Comparison 在历史比较中理解银行挤兑的速度和规模

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.12

J. Rose

引用次数: 2

US Barriers to International Trade of Goods: Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures 美国国际货物贸易壁垒:关税与非关税措施

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.9

Fernando Leibovici, Jason Dunn

引用次数: 0

The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization 美联储资产负债表正常化的机制

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.18

Amalia Estenssoro, Kevin L. Kliesen

引用次数: 0

The Allocation of Immigrant Talent Across Countries: Earnings Gaps 跨国移民人才分配:收入差距

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.2

S. Birinci, Fernando Leibovici, K. See

引用次数: 0

Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance 专业预测者对2023年的展望和基于过去表现的警告

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.1

Charles S. Gascon

{"title":"Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance","authors":"Charles S. Gascon","doi":"10.20955/es.2023.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2023.1","url":null,"abstract":"future by looking at possible changes in the economy, including income, the labor market, and interest rates. They may also seek guidance from professional forecasters. Currently, there is much debate as to how the U.S. economy will perform in 2023. But the general consensus of professional forecasters and FOMC participants is that economic growth will be slow and inflation will come down from its elevated 2022 rates. Forecasters also expect that the hot labor market from the past few years will begin to cool. However, there are many risks to the outlook: elevated global inflation, slower growth in China, and a cooling domestic housing market, to name a few. The historical track record of forecasters indicates these economic projections are rarely fully correct, but they do contain useful information beyond what can be gained by simple projections. So how likely is it that the economy in 2023 will be in line with professional forecasts? And if they are wrong, as they have been in the past, how wrong will they be? I look at the one-year-ahead projections reported in the December Blue Chip survey of about fifty professional economic forecasters. Although these projections are updated monthly, I use data in the December report for Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79967657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Where Are the Workers? A Look into the Decline in Immigration 工人在哪里?对移民减少的调查

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.19

Hannah Rubinton, Cassie Marks

引用次数: 0

The Evolution of Job Applications and Job-Finding Rates since the 1980s 20世纪80年代以来就业申请和就业率的演变

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.4

S. Birinci, K. See, Shu Lin Wee

{"title":"The Evolution of Job Applications and Job-Finding Rates since the 1980s","authors":"S. Birinci, K. See, Shu Lin Wee","doi":"10.20955/es.2023.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2023.4","url":null,"abstract":"The advent of the information and communications technology revolution in the 1980s introduced significant improvements in search technologies, changing the way unemployed workers look for jobs. Previously, workers had to go door-to-door to look for a job, but they can now easily access information on a job’s requirements, offered wages and benefits, and work environment through online jobsearch platforms. They can also apply to many jobs in a short period of time. How have these revolutionary changes in the way workers search and apply for jobs affected jobfinding rates over time? In Job Applications and Labor Market Flows, we use data from the Employment Opportunities Pilot Projects (EOPP) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) to empirically document the evolution of job applications and outcomes since the 1980s.1 The EOPP was designed to analyze the impacts of an intensive job search and a work-and-training program. It captures unemployment spells and job-search activities of unemployed workers between 1979 and 1980. Meanwhile, the SCE captures respondents’ labor market activities and outcomes of unemployed workers between 2013 and 2019. Our sample from both datasets consists of unemployed individuals 25 to 65 years of age who submitted at least one job application during their unemployment spell.2","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"103 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82688821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global Profit Shifting through Intellectual Property and the Impact of US Tax Reforms 知识产权带来的全球利润转移及美国税收改革的影响

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.10

Ana Maria Santacreu, J. LaBelle

{"title":"Global Profit Shifting through Intellectual Property and the Impact of US Tax Reforms","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu, J. LaBelle","doi":"10.20955/es.2023.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2023.10","url":null,"abstract":"(MNEs) to expand their operations to reach new markets across the globe. However, one drawback of globalization is that MNEs can easily shift their profits to lower-tax countries. Profit shifting is a practice in which MNEs move their profits from high-tax countries to low-tax countries to lower their overall tax burden. One of the most common forms of this practice is the transfer of intellectual property (IP), including patents, trademarks, copyrights, and trade secrets. It’s a popular option for MNEs looking to reduce their tax burdens, as IP is transferred across borders easily without a need for significant capital investment or even a physical presence. Several notable papers, including 2022 studies by Torslov, Wier, and Zucman and by Guvenen, Mataloni, Rassier, and Ruhl, have argued that the movement of IP is the main channel for profit shifting. However, empirical evidence on the prevalence of this practice has been scarce. This essay uses IP transactions data from the platform ktMINE to compute the amount of patent transfers flowing from the US to two groups of countries: tax havens and non-tax havens.1 Global Profit Shifting through Intellectual Property and the Impact of US Tax Reforms","PeriodicalId":11402,"journal":{"name":"Economic Synopses","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80789842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Rise and Fall of M2 M2的起落

Economic Synopses Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/es.2023.11

Christopher J. Neely

引用次数: 1