{"title":"Global Burden of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Related Chronic Kidney Disease among Adolescents and Young Adults, and Projections to 2035: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.","authors":"Xiaoli Qu, Chongbin Liu, Lin Sun, Zhifeng Sheng","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2024.0544","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Type 1 diabetes mellitus related chronic kidney disease (T1DM-CKD) presents a global health challenge, with unclear trends and patterns among adolescents and young adults. This study analyzed the burden and risk factors of T1DM-CKD in individuals aged 15 to 39 from 1990 to 2021 and predicted future trends.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we analyzed the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of T1DM-CKD among youth across gender, sociodemographic index (SDI) areas, and data from 21 regions and 204 countries and territories. Risk factors were assessed and future trends were projected.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 1990 and 2021, the global prevalence of T1DM-CKD aged 15 to 39 increased by 107.5% to 3.32 million, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 111.44 per 100,000 (AAPC 1.33%). Incidence rose by 165.4% to 14,200, with an agestandardized incidence rate of 0.48 per 100,000 (AAPC 2.19%). However, age-standardized mortality rate (0.50 per 100,000, AAPC -0.87%) and age-standardized DALYs rate (30.61 per 100,000, AAPC -0.83%) decreased. ASPR increased across all SDI regions, especially in high-SDI countries. High fasting glucose remained the major risk factor influencing DALYs. By 2035, T1DM-CKD prevalence was projected to decrease to 2.86 million (ASPR 89.67 per 100,000).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The research revealed a global increase in T1DM-CKD among youth, with a shift towards younger onset and significant variations based on gender and location, emphasizing the importance of early prevention and management strategies for this demographic.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143751524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kyungchul Song, Eunju Lee, Hye Sun Lee, Hana Lee, Ji-Won Lee, Hyun Wook Chae, Yu-Jin Kwon
{"title":"Comparison of SPISE and METS-IR and Other Markers to Predict Insulin Resistance and Elevated Liver Transaminases in Children and Adolescents.","authors":"Kyungchul Song, Eunju Lee, Hye Sun Lee, Hana Lee, Ji-Won Lee, Hyun Wook Chae, Yu-Jin Kwon","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0302","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0302","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Studies on predictive markers of insulin resistance (IR) and elevated liver transaminases in children and adolescents are limited. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of the single-point insulin sensitivity estimator (SPISE) index, metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), the triglyceride (TG)/ high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, and the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG) for IR and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation in this population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from 1,593 participants aged 10 to 18 years were analyzed using a nationwide survey. Logistic regression analysis was performed with IR and ALT elevation as dependent variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to assess predictive capability. Proportions of IR and ALT elevation were compared after dividing participants based on parameter cutoff points.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All parameters were significantly associated with IR and ALT elevation, even after adjusting for age and sex, and predicted IR and ALT elevation in ROC curves (all P<0.001). The areas under the ROC curve of SPISE and METS-IR were higher than those of TyG and TG/HDL-C for predicting IR and were higher than those of HOMA-IR, TyG, and TG/HDL-C for predicting ALT elevation. The proportions of individuals with IR and ALT elevation were higher among those with METS-IR, TyG, and TG/ HDL-C values higher than the cutoff points, whereas they were lower among those with SPISE higher than the cutoff point.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>SPISE and METS-IR are superior to TG/HDL-C and TyG in predicting IR and ALT elevation. Thus, this study identified valuable predictive markers for young individuals.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"264-274"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960208/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142616473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hui Ran, Yao Lu, Qi Zhang, Qiuyue Hu, Junmei Zhao, Kai Wang, Xuemei Tong, Qing Su
{"title":"MondoA Is Required for Normal Myogenesis and Regulation of the Skeletal Muscle Glycogen Content in Mice.","authors":"Hui Ran, Yao Lu, Qi Zhang, Qiuyue Hu, Junmei Zhao, Kai Wang, Xuemei Tong, Qing Su","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2019.0212.c1","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2019.0212.c1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"331"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960194/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nam Hoon Kim, Soo Lim, In-Kyung Jeong, Eun-Jung Rhee, Jun Sung Moon, Ohk-Hyun Ryu, Hyuk-Sang Kwon, Jong Chul Won, Sang Soo Kim, Sang Yong Kim, Bon Jeong Ku, Heung Yong Jin, Sin Gon Kim, Bong-Soo Cha
{"title":"Study Design and Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial of Enavogliflozin to Evaluate Cardiorenal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes (ENVELOP).","authors":"Nam Hoon Kim, Soo Lim, In-Kyung Jeong, Eun-Jung Rhee, Jun Sung Moon, Ohk-Hyun Ryu, Hyuk-Sang Kwon, Jong Chul Won, Sang Soo Kim, Sang Yong Kim, Bon Jeong Ku, Heung Yong Jin, Sin Gon Kim, Bong-Soo Cha","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0238","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0238","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The novel sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor enavogliflozin effectively lowers glycosylated hemoglobin levels and body weights without the increased risk of serious adverse events; however, the long-term clinical benefits of enavogliflozin in terms of cardiovascular and renal outcomes have not been investigated.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, randomized, pragmatic, open-label, active-controlled, non-inferiority trial. Eligible participants are adults (aged ≥19 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who have a history of, or are at risk of, cardiovascular disease. A total of 2,862 participants will be randomly assigned to receive either enavogliflozin or other SGLT2 inhibitors with proven cardiorenal benefits, such as dapagliflozin or empagliflozin. The primary endpoint is the time to the first occurrence of a composite of major adverse cardiovascular or renal events (Clinical Research Information Service registration number: KCT0009243).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This trial will determine whether enavogliflozin is non-inferior to dapagliflozin or empagliflozin in terms of cardiorenal outcomes in patients with T2DM and cardiovascular risk factors. This study will elucidate the role of enavogliflozin in preventing vascular complications in patients with T2DM.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"225-234"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960196/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142930811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ji Yoon Kim, Jiyoon Lee, Joon Ho Moon, Se Eun Park, Seung-Hyun Ko, Sung Hee Choi, Nam Hoon Kim
{"title":"Prevalence, Incidence, and Metabolic Characteristics of Young Adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in South Korea (2010-2020).","authors":"Ji Yoon Kim, Jiyoon Lee, Joon Ho Moon, Se Eun Park, Seung-Hyun Ko, Sung Hee Choi, Nam Hoon Kim","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0826","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0826","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>This study aimed to examine trends in the prevalence, incidence, metabolic characteristics, and management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among young adults in South Korea.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Young adults with T2DM were defined as individuals aged 19 to 39 years who met the diagnostic criteria for T2DM. Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Customized Database (2010-2020, n=225,497-372,726) were analyzed to evaluate trends in T2DM prevalence, incidence, metabolic profiles, comorbidities, and antidiabetic drug prescription. Additional analyses were performed using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of T2DM in young adults significantly increased from 1.02% in 2010 to 2.02% in 2020 (P<0.001), corresponding to 372,726 patients in 2020. Over the same period, the incidence rate remained stable within the range of 0.36% to 0.45%. Prediabetes prevalence steadily increased from 15.53% to 20.92%, affecting 3.87 million individuals in 2020. The proportion of young adults with T2DM who were obese also increased, with 67.8% having a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m² and 31.6% having a BMI ≥30 kg/m² in 2020. The prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and fatty liver disease also increased, reaching 34.2%, 79.8%, and 78.9%, respectively, in 2020. Although the overall pharmacological treatment rate remained low, the prescription of antidiabetic medications with weight-reducing properties increased over the study period.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The prevalence of T2DM among young adults in South Korea nearly doubled over the past decade. The strong association with obesity and metabolic comorbidities emphasizes the urgent need for targeted prevention and management strategies tailored to this population.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"172-182"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960202/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiaheng Chen, Yu Ting Li, Zimin Niu, Zhanpeng He, Yao Jie Xie, Jose Hernandez, Wenyong Huang, Harry H X Wang
{"title":"Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China.","authors":"Jiaheng Chen, Yu Ting Li, Zimin Niu, Zhanpeng He, Yao Jie Xie, Jose Hernandez, Wenyong Huang, Harry H X Wang","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0239","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0239","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017-2022) and Shaoguan (2019-2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"298-310"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960200/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143122399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Young-Eun Kim, Min Heui Yu, Chung Mo Nam, Eun Seok Kang
{"title":"Effects of Pancreatitis and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on the Development of Pancreatic Cancer: A Nationwide Nested Case-Control Study.","authors":"Young-Eun Kim, Min Heui Yu, Chung Mo Nam, Eun Seok Kang","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0277","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0277","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Despite diabetes mellitus (DM) and pancreatitis being known risk factors for pancreatic cancer, patients with these conditions are not included in pancreatic cancer screening due to the low incidence of pancreatic cancer in these populations. This study aimed to determine the high-risk subgroup of patients with diabetes and pancreatitis that would benefit from pancreatic cancer screening.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A nested case-control study was conducted using data from the National Health Information Database of the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Patients were categorized into the following groups: type 2 diabetes mellitus only (T2DM-only), pancreatitis-only (PAN-only), T2DM followed by pancreatitis (T2DM-PAN), post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM), and no diabetes and no pancreatitis (NDNP). Conditional logistic regression was used to determine significant associations of each group with pancreatic cancer development risk.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The risk of pancreatic cancer was significantly higher in the T2DM-PAN (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.48 to 5.49) and PPDM (AOR, 4.71; 95% CI, 4.12 to 5.37) groups than in the NDNP group. Compared to patients in the NDNP group, those with PPDM using insulin had a 17-fold increased risk (AOR, 16.72; 95% CI, 9.50 to 29.43), and individuals with PPDM who had diabetes for less than 3 years had a more than 8-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (AOR, 8.83; 95% CI, 5.99 to 13.01).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In patients with post-pancreatitis diabetes, insulin use or shorter duration of diabetes was associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer, suggesting that patients in these subgroups may require close monitoring for pancreatic cancer development.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"252-263"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960203/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do Time-Dependent Repeated Measures of Anthropometric and Body Composition Indices Improve the Prediction of Incident Diabetes in the Cohort Study? Findings from a Community-Based Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.","authors":"Hye Ah Lee, Hyesook Park, Bomi Park","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0357","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0357","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Cumulative evidence consistently shows that anthropometric and body composition measurements are strongly linked to the risk of incident diabetes, typically based on baseline measurements. This study aims to assess whether repeated measurements enhance the prediction of diabetes risk beyond baseline assessments alone.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We utilized data from a 16-year population-based follow-up cohort within the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, comprising 6,030 individuals aged 40 to 69 years at baseline. We included eight indices: a body shape index (ABSI), body adiposity index (BAI), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), weight-adjusted skeletal muscle index (SMI), percent body fat, and fat-to-muscle ratio. The effect of these measurements for incident diabetes was estimated using Harrell's C-indexes and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, employing time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Over the 16-year follow-up, 939 new diabetes cases were identified (cumulative incidence, 15.6%). The median number of indicator measurements per participant was eight. The basic model, including 10 features (sex, age, education levels, physical activity, alcohol intake, current smoking, total energy intake, dietary diversity score, and log-transformed C-reactive protein levels, and quartiles of unweighted genetic risk score at baseline), yielded a Harrell's C-index of 0.610. The highest C-index in repeated measurements was for WC (0.668) across the general population, weight-adjusted SMI in men, and WHR in women. However, except for ABSI and BAI, the diabetes predictive power of the other indicators was comparable. Additionally, repeated measurements of WC, BMI, and WHR in women were found to contribute to improved discrimination compared to baseline measurements, but not in men.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Utilizing repeated measurements of general and central adiposity to predict diabetes may be helpful in predicting hidden risks, especially in women.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"275-285"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960198/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142616475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Beyond Body Mass Index: New Criteria for a Holistic Approach to Clinical Obesity.","authors":"Kyunghun Sung, Seung-Hwan Lee, Soo Lim","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2025.0097","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2025.0097","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"165-168"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960195/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jinxiao Lian, Ching So, Sarah Morag McGhee, Thuan-Quoc Thach, Cindy Lo Kuen Lam, Colman Siu Cheung Fung, Alfred Siu Kei Kwong, Jonathan Cheuk Hung Chan
{"title":"To Determine the Risk-Based Screening Interval for Diabetic Retinopathy: Development and Validation of Risk Algorithm from a Retrospective Cohort Study.","authors":"Jinxiao Lian, Ching So, Sarah Morag McGhee, Thuan-Quoc Thach, Cindy Lo Kuen Lam, Colman Siu Cheung Fung, Alfred Siu Kei Kwong, Jonathan Cheuk Hung Chan","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0142","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0142","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>The optimal screening interval for diabetic retinopathy (DR) remains controversial. This study aimed to develop a risk algorithm to predict the individual risk of referable sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in a mainly Chinese population and to provide evidence for risk-based screening intervals.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The retrospective cohort data from 117,418 subjects who received systematic DR screening in Hong Kong between 2010 and 2016 were included to develop and validate the risk algorithm using a parametric survival model. The risk algorithm can be used to predict the individual risk of STDR within a specific time interval, or the time to reach a specific risk margin and thus to allocate a screening interval. The calibration performance was assessed by comparing the cumulative STDR events versus predicted risk over 2 years, and discrimination by using receiver operative characteristics (ROC) curve.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Duration of diabetes, glycosylated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes medication, and age were included in the risk algorithm. The validation of prediction performance showed that there was no significant difference between predicted and observed STDR risks in males (5.6% vs. 5.1%, P=0.724) or females (4.8% vs. 4.6%, P=0.099). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.81) for males and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.83) for females.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The risk algorithm has good prediction performance for referable STDR. Using a risk-based screening interval allows us to allocate screening visits disproportionally more to those at higher risk, while reducing the frequency of screening of lower risk people.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"286-297"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11960201/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142544319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}