Global Burden of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Related Chronic Kidney Disease among Adolescents and Young Adults, and Projections to 2035: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Background: Type 1 diabetes mellitus related chronic kidney disease (T1DM-CKD) presents a global health challenge, with unclear trends and patterns among adolescents and young adults. This study analyzed the burden and risk factors of T1DM-CKD in individuals aged 15 to 39 from 1990 to 2021 and predicted future trends.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we analyzed the prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of T1DM-CKD among youth across gender, sociodemographic index (SDI) areas, and data from 21 regions and 204 countries and territories. Risk factors were assessed and future trends were projected.

Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the global prevalence of T1DM-CKD aged 15 to 39 increased by 107.5% to 3.32 million, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 111.44 per 100,000 (AAPC 1.33%). Incidence rose by 165.4% to 14,200, with an agestandardized incidence rate of 0.48 per 100,000 (AAPC 2.19%). However, age-standardized mortality rate (0.50 per 100,000, AAPC -0.87%) and age-standardized DALYs rate (30.61 per 100,000, AAPC -0.83%) decreased. ASPR increased across all SDI regions, especially in high-SDI countries. High fasting glucose remained the major risk factor influencing DALYs. By 2035, T1DM-CKD prevalence was projected to decrease to 2.86 million (ASPR 89.67 per 100,000).

Conclusion: The research revealed a global increase in T1DM-CKD among youth, with a shift towards younger onset and significant variations based on gender and location, emphasizing the importance of early prevention and management strategies for this demographic.