Diabetes & Metabolism Journal最新文献

{"title":"Burden of End-Stage Kidney Disease by Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Status in South Korea: A Nationwide Epidemiologic Study.","authors":"Jwa-Kyung Kim, Han Na Jung, Bum Jun Kim, Boram Han, Ji Hye Huh, Eun Roh, Joo-Hee Kim, Kyung-Do Han, Jun Goo Kang","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2024.0443","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Patients with diabetes are known to be at high risk for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), but the accurate annual risk data for new-onset ESKD is still limited. In South Korea, the prevalence and incidence of ESKD are increasing more rapidly compared to the global average. This study aimed to determine the incidence rate (IR) of ESKD by diabetes status from 2012 to 2022.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, we calculated the IR and hazard ratio (HR) for newonset ESKD in the general population. Individuals were categorized based on diabetes status into nondiabetes, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), diabetes duration <5 and ≥5 years.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the participants, 67.6% were nondiabetic, 22.3% had IFG, and 10% had diabetes. In Korea, the IRs of ESKD were 139 per million population (pmp) for nondiabetes, 188 pmp for IFG, 632 pmp for diabetes <5 years, and 3,403 pmp for diabetes ≥5 years. An advanced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) category was the strongest risk factor for ESKD development. However, even in patients with normal renal function, those with long-standing diabetes had a 14-fold higher risk of ESKD compared to nondiabetic individuals. The risk of ESKD associated with diabetes increased exponentially with declining renal function. Notably, IFG showed an increasing tendency for ESKD in younger patients (<65 years) with early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD; eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m²).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Longer diabetes duration amplifies ESKD risk, particularly as renal function declines. Even in patients with normal renal function, long-standing diabetes significantly increases ESKD risk, while IFG is associated with elevated risk only in younger individuals with early-stage CKD.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143585125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of SPISE and METS-IR and Other Markers to Predict Insulin Resistance and Elevated Liver Transaminases in Children and Adolescents.","authors":"Kyungchul Song, Eunju Lee, Hye Sun Lee, Hana Lee, Ji-Won Lee, Hyun Wook Chae, Yu-Jin Kwon","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0302","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0302","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Studies on predictive markers of insulin resistance (IR) and elevated liver transaminases in children and adolescents are limited. We evaluated the predictive capabilities of the single-point insulin sensitivity estimator (SPISE) index, metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), the triglyceride (TG)/ high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, and the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG) for IR and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation in this population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from 1,593 participants aged 10 to 18 years were analyzed using a nationwide survey. Logistic regression analysis was performed with IR and ALT elevation as dependent variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to assess predictive capability. Proportions of IR and ALT elevation were compared after dividing participants based on parameter cutoff points.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All parameters were significantly associated with IR and ALT elevation, even after adjusting for age and sex, and predicted IR and ALT elevation in ROC curves (all P<0.001). The areas under the ROC curve of SPISE and METS-IR were higher than those of TyG and TG/HDL-C for predicting IR and were higher than those of HOMA-IR, TyG, and TG/HDL-C for predicting ALT elevation. The proportions of individuals with IR and ALT elevation were higher among those with METS-IR, TyG, and TG/ HDL-C values higher than the cutoff points, whereas they were lower among those with SPISE higher than the cutoff point.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>SPISE and METS-IR are superior to TG/HDL-C and TyG in predicting IR and ALT elevation. Thus, this study identified valuable predictive markers for young individuals.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"264-274"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142616473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MondoA Is Required for Normal Myogenesis and Regulation of the Skeletal Muscle Glycogen Content in Mice.","authors":"Hui Ran, Yao Lu, Qi Zhang, Qiuyue Hu, Junmei Zhao, Kai Wang, Xuemei Tong, Qing Su","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2019.0212.c1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2019.0212.c1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"331"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study Design and Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial of Enavogliflozin to Evaluate Cardiorenal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes (ENVELOP).","authors":"Nam Hoon Kim, Soo Lim, In-Kyung Jeong, Eun-Jung Rhee, Jun Sung Moon, Ohk-Hyun Ryu, Hyuk-Sang Kwon, Jong Chul Won, Sang Soo Kim, Sang Yong Kim, Bon Jeong Ku, Heung Yong Jin, Sin Gon Kim, Bong-Soo Cha","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0238","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0238","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The novel sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor enavogliflozin effectively lowers glycosylated hemoglobin levels and body weights without the increased risk of serious adverse events; however, the long-term clinical benefits of enavogliflozin in terms of cardiovascular and renal outcomes have not been investigated.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, randomized, pragmatic, open-label, active-controlled, non-inferiority trial. Eligible participants are adults (aged ≥19 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who have a history of, or are at risk of, cardiovascular disease. A total of 2,862 participants will be randomly assigned to receive either enavogliflozin or other SGLT2 inhibitors with proven cardiorenal benefits, such as dapagliflozin or empagliflozin. The primary endpoint is the time to the first occurrence of a composite of major adverse cardiovascular or renal events (Clinical Research Information Service registration number: KCT0009243).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This trial will determine whether enavogliflozin is non-inferior to dapagliflozin or empagliflozin in terms of cardiorenal outcomes in patients with T2DM and cardiovascular risk factors. This study will elucidate the role of enavogliflozin in preventing vascular complications in patients with T2DM.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"225-234"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142930811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China.","authors":"Jiaheng Chen, Yu Ting Li, Zimin Niu, Zhanpeng He, Yao Jie Xie, Jose Hernandez, Wenyong Huang, Harry H X Wang","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0239","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0239","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017-2022) and Shaoguan (2019-2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"298-310"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143122399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prevalence, Incidence, and Metabolic Characteristics of Young Adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in South Korea (2010-2020).","authors":"Ji Yoon Kim, Jiyoon Lee, Joon Ho Moon, Se Eun Park, Seung-Hyun Ko, Sung Hee Choi, Nam Hoon Kim","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0826","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0826","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>This study aimed to examine trends in the prevalence, incidence, metabolic characteristics, and management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among young adults in South Korea.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Young adults with T2DM were defined as individuals aged 19 to 39 years who met the diagnostic criteria for T2DM. Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Customized Database (2010-2020, n=225,497-372,726) were analyzed to evaluate trends in T2DM prevalence, incidence, metabolic profiles, comorbidities, and antidiabetic drug prescription. Additional analyses were performed using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The prevalence of T2DM in young adults significantly increased from 1.02% in 2010 to 2.02% in 2020 (P<0.001), corresponding to 372,726 patients in 2020. Over the same period, the incidence rate remained stable within the range of 0.36% to 0.45%. Prediabetes prevalence steadily increased from 15.53% to 20.92%, affecting 3.87 million individuals in 2020. The proportion of young adults with T2DM who were obese also increased, with 67.8% having a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m² and 31.6% having a BMI ≥30 kg/m² in 2020. The prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and fatty liver disease also increased, reaching 34.2%, 79.8%, and 78.9%, respectively, in 2020. Although the overall pharmacological treatment rate remained low, the prescription of antidiabetic medications with weight-reducing properties increased over the study period.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The prevalence of T2DM among young adults in South Korea nearly doubled over the past decade. The strong association with obesity and metabolic comorbidities emphasizes the urgent need for targeted prevention and management strategies tailored to this population.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"172-182"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of Pancreatitis and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on the Development of Pancreatic Cancer: A Nationwide Nested Case-Control Study.","authors":"Young-Eun Kim, Min Heui Yu, Chung Mo Nam, Eun Seok Kang","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0277","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0277","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Despite diabetes mellitus (DM) and pancreatitis being known risk factors for pancreatic cancer, patients with these conditions are not included in pancreatic cancer screening due to the low incidence of pancreatic cancer in these populations. This study aimed to determine the high-risk subgroup of patients with diabetes and pancreatitis that would benefit from pancreatic cancer screening.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A nested case-control study was conducted using data from the National Health Information Database of the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Patients were categorized into the following groups: type 2 diabetes mellitus only (T2DM-only), pancreatitis-only (PAN-only), T2DM followed by pancreatitis (T2DM-PAN), post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus (PPDM), and no diabetes and no pancreatitis (NDNP). Conditional logistic regression was used to determine significant associations of each group with pancreatic cancer development risk.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The risk of pancreatic cancer was significantly higher in the T2DM-PAN (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.48 to 5.49) and PPDM (AOR, 4.71; 95% CI, 4.12 to 5.37) groups than in the NDNP group. Compared to patients in the NDNP group, those with PPDM using insulin had a 17-fold increased risk (AOR, 16.72; 95% CI, 9.50 to 29.43), and individuals with PPDM who had diabetes for less than 3 years had a more than 8-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer (AOR, 8.83; 95% CI, 5.99 to 13.01).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>In patients with post-pancreatitis diabetes, insulin use or shorter duration of diabetes was associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer, suggesting that patients in these subgroups may require close monitoring for pancreatic cancer development.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":"49 2","pages":"252-263"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143613794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do Time-Dependent Repeated Measures of Anthropometric and Body Composition Indices Improve the Prediction of Incident Diabetes in the Cohort Study? Findings from a Community-Based Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.","authors":"Hye Ah Lee, Hyesook Park, Bomi Park","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0357","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0357","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Cumulative evidence consistently shows that anthropometric and body composition measurements are strongly linked to the risk of incident diabetes, typically based on baseline measurements. This study aims to assess whether repeated measurements enhance the prediction of diabetes risk beyond baseline assessments alone.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We utilized data from a 16-year population-based follow-up cohort within the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, comprising 6,030 individuals aged 40 to 69 years at baseline. We included eight indices: a body shape index (ABSI), body adiposity index (BAI), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), weight-adjusted skeletal muscle index (SMI), percent body fat, and fat-to-muscle ratio. The effect of these measurements for incident diabetes was estimated using Harrell's C-indexes and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, employing time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Over the 16-year follow-up, 939 new diabetes cases were identified (cumulative incidence, 15.6%). The median number of indicator measurements per participant was eight. The basic model, including 10 features (sex, age, education levels, physical activity, alcohol intake, current smoking, total energy intake, dietary diversity score, and log-transformed C-reactive protein levels, and quartiles of unweighted genetic risk score at baseline), yielded a Harrell's C-index of 0.610. The highest C-index in repeated measurements was for WC (0.668) across the general population, weight-adjusted SMI in men, and WHR in women. However, except for ABSI and BAI, the diabetes predictive power of the other indicators was comparable. Additionally, repeated measurements of WC, BMI, and WHR in women were found to contribute to improved discrimination compared to baseline measurements, but not in men.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Utilizing repeated measurements of general and central adiposity to predict diabetes may be helpful in predicting hidden risks, especially in women.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"275-285"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142616475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exon Sequencing of HNF1β in Chinese Patients with Early-Onset Diabetes.","authors":"Siqian Gong, Hong Lian, Yating Li, Xiaoling Cai, Wei Liu, Yingying Luo, Meng Li, Si-Min Zhang, Rui Zhang, Lingli Zhou, Yu Zhu, Qian Ren, Xiuying Zhang, Jing Chen, Jing Wu, Xianghai Zhou, Xirui Wang, Xueyao Han, Linong Ji","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0159","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0159","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) due to variants of hepatocyte nuclear factor 1-beta (HNF1β) (MODY5) has not been well studied in the Chinese population. This study aimed to estimate its prevalence and evaluate the application of a clinical screening method (Faguer score) in Chinese early-onset diabetes (EOD) patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Among 679 EOD patients clinically diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (age at diagnosis ≤40 years), the exons of HNF1β were sequenced. Functional impact of rare variants was evaluated using a dual-luciferase reporter system. Faguer scores ≥8 prompted multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) for large deletions. Pathogenicity of HNF1β variants was assessed following the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) guidelines.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Two rare HNF1β missense mutations (E105K and G454R) were identified by sequencing in five patients, showing functional impact in vitro. Another patient was found to have a whole-gene deletion by MLPA in 22 patients with the Faguer score above 8. Following ACMG guidelines, six patients carrying pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant were diagnosed with MODY5. The estimated prevalence of MODY5 in Chinese EOD patients was approximately 0.9% or higher.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>MODY5 is not uncommon in China. The Faguer score is helpful in deciding whether to perform MLPA analysis on patients with negative sequencing results.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"321-330"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142616489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"To Determine the Risk-Based Screening Interval for Diabetic Retinopathy: Development and Validation of Risk Algorithm from a Retrospective Cohort Study.","authors":"Jinxiao Lian, Ching So, Sarah Morag McGhee, Thuan-Quoc Thach, Cindy Lo Kuen Lam, Colman Siu Cheung Fung, Alfred Siu Kei Kwong, Jonathan Cheuk Hung Chan","doi":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0142","DOIUrl":"10.4093/dmj.2024.0142","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Backgruound: </strong>The optimal screening interval for diabetic retinopathy (DR) remains controversial. This study aimed to develop a risk algorithm to predict the individual risk of referable sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in a mainly Chinese population and to provide evidence for risk-based screening intervals.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The retrospective cohort data from 117,418 subjects who received systematic DR screening in Hong Kong between 2010 and 2016 were included to develop and validate the risk algorithm using a parametric survival model. The risk algorithm can be used to predict the individual risk of STDR within a specific time interval, or the time to reach a specific risk margin and thus to allocate a screening interval. The calibration performance was assessed by comparing the cumulative STDR events versus predicted risk over 2 years, and discrimination by using receiver operative characteristics (ROC) curve.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Duration of diabetes, glycosylated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes medication, and age were included in the risk algorithm. The validation of prediction performance showed that there was no significant difference between predicted and observed STDR risks in males (5.6% vs. 5.1%, P=0.724) or females (4.8% vs. 4.6%, P=0.099). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.81) for males and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.83) for females.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The risk algorithm has good prediction performance for referable STDR. Using a risk-based screening interval allows us to allocate screening visits disproportionally more to those at higher risk, while reducing the frequency of screening of lower risk people.</p>","PeriodicalId":11153,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes & Metabolism Journal","volume":" ","pages":"286-297"},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142544319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}