Global, Regional, and National Temporal Trends in Incidence for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Related Chronic Kidney Disease from 1992 to 2021.

Abstract

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major cause of declining renal function.

Methods: Temporal trends in T2DM-related chronic kidney disease (CKD-T2DM) incidence across 204 countries and territories from 1992 to 2021 were analyzed using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. The impact of macro-factors (demographic change, age, period, and birth cohort) on CKD-T2DM incidence trends was assessed using decomposition analyses and age-period- cohort modeling, highlighting opportunities to improve incidence and reduce regional disparities.

Results: In 2021, global CKD-T2DM incidence cases reached 2.01 million, a 150.92% increase since 1992, with population growth and aging contributing to 80% of this rise. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) ranged from 15.09 per 100,000 in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions to 23.07 in high SDI regions. China, India, the United States, and Japan have the most incidence cases, accounted for 69% of incidence cases globally. With 175 countries showing an increasing ASIR trend. Unfavorable trend in ASIR increase were generally found in most high-middle and middle SDI countries, such as China and Mexico (net drift=0.15% and 1.17%, per year). Age-period-cohort analyses indicated a high incidence risk near age 80, with worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts, except in high SDI areas.

Conclusion: The CKD-T2DM incidence burden continues to rise globally, with significant variations between countries, posing major global health implications. CKD-T2DM is largely preventable and treatable, warranting greater attention in global health policy, particularly for older populations and in low and middle SDI regions.