Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Evolution of the Ecb's Analytical Framework","authors":"F. Holm-Hadulla, Alberto Musso, Thomas Vlassopoulos, Diego Rodríguez-Palenzuela","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3928299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3928299","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the role of economic and monetary analysis in the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Both areas of analysis have evolved since the 2003 strategy review. Economic analysis has assigned an increasingly relevant role to the Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections in forming a view on the medium-term outlook for economic activity and inflation. Furthermore, its focus has strengthened with regard to structural trends in shaping key economic relationships. Similarly, monetary analysis has shifted in focus: while the 2003 review emphasised the information value of monetary dynamics for detecting risks to price stability over medium-term to longer-term horizons, the focus of monetary analysis has increasingly been redirected to the assessment of monetary policy transmission. This evolution has opened a gap between the formal description of the strategy following the 2003 review and the practice of economic and monetary analysis in informing the ECB’s policy deliberations. This paper concludes by presenting options for closing this gap and aligning the strategy formulation with the evolved role of economic and monetary analysis.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"2010 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86298697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Implications of Globalisation for the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy","authors":"D. Lodge, Mary Everett, Olivier de Bandt, Georgios P. Georgiadis, Michele Ca’ Zorzi, Povilas Lastauskas, J. Carluccio, Susana Parrága, Pietro Cova, M. Attinasi, Mirco Balatti Mozzanica, C. Girón, B. Banerjee, Vanessa Gunnella, Ursel Baumann, Y. Hemmerlé, Jean-Charles Bricongne, Axel Jochem, F. Chiacchio, Kristiina Karjanlahti, Iván Kataryniuk, D. D. Giudice, I. Korhonen, Clara De Luigi, Markus Kühnlenz, D. Dimitropoulou, Vincent Labhard, Virginia di Nino, Helena Le Mezo, Ettore Dorrucci, Eric Eichler, Nilsson Mattias, Martin Feldkircher, C. Osbat, T. Reininger, S. Stumpner, I. V. Schaik, Martin Schmitz, Helmut Wacket, Roberta Serafini, Tina Žumer, D. Siena","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3928284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3928284","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003. It then examines the effects of these developments on global productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. The impact of globalisation on r* has been ambiguous: downward pressures, fuelled by global demand for safe assets and an increase in the propensity to save against a background of rising inequality, are counteracted by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity. Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which it affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. Against the background of this discussion, the paper then examines the implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it asks two questions. How is the ECB’s economic and monetary analysis affected by globalisation? And how does globalisation influence the choice of the ECB’s monetary policy objective and instruments? ...","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82904101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Why Do We Think that Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)","authors":"Jeremy B. Rudd","doi":"10.17016/FEDS.2021.062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.062","url":null,"abstract":"Economists and economic policymakers believe that households' and firms' expectations of future inflation are a key determinant of actual inflation. A review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this belief rests on extremely shaky foundations, and a case is made that adhering to it uncritically could easily lead to serious policy errors.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89424268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary Policy, Agent Heterogeneity and Inequality: Insights from a Three-Agent New Keynesian Model","authors":"Mari Eskelinen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3929824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3929824","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper I develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which features three different types of representative agents (THRANK): the poor hand-to-mouth, the wealthy hand-to-mouth and the non-hand-to mouth households. Compared to a full-scale HANK model, this model is easier to compute while reproducing many of the same monetary policy shock transmission channels. I show that monetary policy transmission takes place through a redistribution channel, as emphasised by Auclert (2019). In particular, the effects of a monetary policy shock are amplified as resources are redistributed from high-MPC households to low-MPC households. Monetary policy therefore becomes more effective compared to models with homogeneous MPC rates. Consumption inequality is countercyclical in this setting and a high degree of leverage amplifies the redistribution channel. These findings have important implications for understanding the effects of both monetary and macroprudential policy. JEL Classification: D31, E12, E21, E43, E52","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78752609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Targeting Regimes in Emerging Market Economies: To Invest or Not to Invest?","authors":"Douglas Silveira, Ricardo Barbosa Lima Mendes Oscar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3920607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3920607","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a stochastic learning rule through an Agent-based Model (ABM) to understand how emerging market economies (EMEs) can achieve high levels of investment, given the announced inflation target rate. The central banks act as a pseudo-player, choosing between the pursued target inflation rate or a negative inflation rate. By taking this action as given, bounded-rational firms and workers iteratively play a two-population well-mixed evolutionary game to make investment decisions. Our findings show that when inflation converges to its target, less the central planners' effort to reach the steady-state with investment coordination. When central banks target a negative inflation rate, it can speed up the EMEs' convergence to a steady-state with agents coordinating their investment strategies. It shed some light on central banks' transparency and credibility to avoid the so-called debt-deflation spiral, which typically increases the uncertainty in EMEs, limiting the investments in the economy.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78773833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying and Reducing the Money Laundering Risks and Vulnerabilities Associated With Virtual Assets: The Case of Nigeria","authors":"E. Esoimeme","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3913602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3913602","url":null,"abstract":"PURPOSE – This paper aims to shed light on the use of virtual assets as an alternate currency by criminals, and discuss the various anti-money laundering programmes that a Virtual Asset Service Provider is required to put in place, to mitigate money laundering risk(s). DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH – This paper relies mainly on primary and secondary data drawn from the public domain. It also relies on documentary research. FINDINGS – This paper determined that the money laundering risks associated with Virtual Assets may be reduced if Virtual Asset Service Providers register as money service businesses and implement a written anti-money laundering (AML) program that, at a minimum: (a) incorporates policies, procedures and internal controls reasonably designed to assure ongoing compliance; (b) designates an individual responsible to assure day to day compliance with the program and regulatory requirements; (c) provides training for appropriate personnel, including training in the detection of suspicious transactions; (d) provides for independent review to monitor and maintain an adequate program; (e) provides for the filing of suspicious activity reports and currency transaction reports; and (f) establishes a record keeping programme. ORIGINALITY/VALUE – This paper aims to help build awareness with the regulatory, enforcement and customs authorities as well as reporting entities about money laundering risks and vulnerabilities of Virtual Assets, and how to mitigate them.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91090744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Major Determinants of Food Price Volatility in Turkey: Inflation Surge Aftermath of 2016","authors":"Caner Özdurak","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904157","url":null,"abstract":"Food price index is a crucial indicator for the stability of overall economic conditions in emerging markets since it has a considerable weight in regular spending of households. In the last decade, Turkey experienced higher food price inflation compared to consumer price index. In this context our main purpose is to provide useful insight for policymakers and governors to manage food price inflation. This paper undertakes the analysis of volatility and volatility spillover between Turkey Food Price Index (Turkey), Dollar-TL exchange rate (USDTRY), Turkish Producer Price Index of Agricultural (TRAGRIINP) and Turkish Food Price Index (World). The monthly data set covers the period 1 January 2000–31 December 2020. The results indicate that the volatility spillover effect between Turkish food price index and world food price index is more significant compared to the return spillover effect. Also, our results indicate a significant volatility spillover effect between Turkish food price index, exchange rates and world food price index exist in the short run while the effect vanishes in the long run. However, in the long run the main indicator for Turkish food prices index is Production Price Index of Agricultural Products after 2016 which is the milestone for the food price index surge.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91006269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Excess Labor Supply, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate","authors":"Jiandong Ju, J. Lin, Qing Liu, K. Shi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3915248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3915248","url":null,"abstract":"Since China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, the Chinese economy has grown rapidly, especially the tradable goods sector. However, the Chinese real exchange rate did not exhibit a persistent and stable appreciation until 2005. This is a puzzling fact that is inconsistent with theories. This paper documents several stylized facts during the economic transition and argues that two features of the Chinese economy may help explain the puzzling real exchange rate pattern for the Chinese economy: i) the faster total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the export sector compared with the import sector; and ii) excess supply of unskilled labor. We construct a small open economy model with an H-O trade structure. We show that, due to heterogeneous skilled labor intensity in export and import sectors, faster TFP growth in the export sector over that in the import sector will lead to the decline of return to capital and a rise of the skilled wage. Therefore, the decrease of return to capital and the persistent low unskilled wage, which is caused by the excess supply of unskilled labor, inhibit the rise in the relative price of non-tradable goods to tradable goods and the appreciation of the real exchange rate. Furthermore, we develop a dynamic small open economy model with multiple tradable goods sectors. We show that the model does fairly well in explaining the Chinese real exchange rate and other stylized facts in the economic transition. Finally, we demonstrate that our hypotheses are supported by cross-country evidence.","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"57 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91401059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic institutions","authors":"Prosper M. Bernard","doi":"10.4324/9780429199462-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429199462-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74629945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political institutions","authors":"Prosper M. Bernard","doi":"10.4324/9780429199462-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429199462-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":10548,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78990581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}