为什么我们认为通胀预期对通胀很重要?(我们应该吗?)

Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.17016/FEDS.2021.062

Jeremy B. Rudd

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引用次数: 30

摘要

经济学家和经济政策制定者认为，家庭和企业对未来通胀的预期是实际通胀的关键决定因素。对相关理论和实证文献的回顾表明，这种信念建立在极其不可靠的基础上，并且提出了一个案例，即不加批判地坚持这种信念很容易导致严重的政策错误。

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Why Do We Think that Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)

Economists and economic policymakers believe that households' and firms' expectations of future inflation are a key determinant of actual inflation. A review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature suggests that this belief rests on extremely shaky foundations, and a case is made that adhering to it uncritically could easily lead to serious policy errors.

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Comparative Political Economy: Monetary Policy eJournal

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