{"title":"Stated preference methods and travel demand forecasting: An examination of the scale factor problem","authors":"Mark Wardman","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90127-C","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90127-C","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Stated Preference choice models may have incorrect scale properties, because their coefficients incorporate the influence of factors which do not affect actual behaviour, and this paper examines the consequences of this scale factor problem for demand forecasting. Empirical evidence is presented which suggests that the scale factor problem is not serious and the results are generalised to consider the consequences of the scale factor problem in situations other than those prevailing in the empirical example. The paper also examines the predictive performance of three procedures for forecasting changes to an existing demand in the light of the scale factor problem. This indicates that reliance should not be placed on the incremental logit model and that a simple procedure which amends a standard logit model forecast in the light of its performance in explaining the observed initial demand is generally preferred to unadjusted logit model forecasts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 79-89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90127-C","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79248937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Airport congestion and near-midair collisions","authors":"Jonathan L. Gifford, Praveen Sinha","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90128-D","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90128-D","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a model that systematically integrates, for the first time, the association between a region's aviation near-midair collision risk and its traffic levels, its type and amount of air traffic control, and the complexity of its airspace. The model incorporates the tight interrelatedness (and correlation) between traffic, airspace complexity, and air traffic controller staffing. An estimation of the model using cross-sectional data on 143 U.S. airports in 1985 indicates that the frequency of reported near-midair collisions (NMACs) is positively associated with regional traffic and airspace complexity, despite the fact that busier, more complex regions generally have more air traffic controllers. Also, in regions governed by “terminal radar service areas” (TRSAs), the reported near-midair collisions are positively associated with the presence of more satellite airports than would be expected on the basis of traffic alone. Finally, deviations from controller staffing levels that would be expected on the basis of traffic and airspace complexity alone are significantly associated with variations in reported NMACs in terminal control areas but not in terminal radar service areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 91-99"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90128-D","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79518268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction to the theory of traffic flow","authors":"Sam Yagar","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90134-C","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90134-C","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 143-144"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90134-C","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"97616054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Woodrow Barfield, Mark Haselkorn, Jan Spyridakis, Loveday Conquest
{"title":"Integrating commuter information needs in the design of a motorist information system","authors":"Woodrow Barfield, Mark Haselkorn, Jan Spyridakis, Loveday Conquest","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90126-B","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90126-B","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents the results of a large sample survey designed to investigate the response of commuters to the delivery of traffic information. The main purpose of the survey was to investigate the impact of traffic information on commuters route choices, mode choices, and departure times in order to provide functional requirements for the design of a real-time motorist information system. The surveyed population consisted of 3,893 freeway motorists who routinely commuted to a central business district. The results of the survey indicated that four distinct commuter subgroups existed with respect to their traffic information needs: These groups were: (1) route changers, those willing to change route, or mode before entering the freeway (20.6%), (2) nonchangers, those unwilling to change time, route, or mode (23.4%), (3) time and route changers, (40.1%), and (4) pretrip changers, those willing to change time, mode, or route before leaving the house (15.9%). In terms of receiving traffic information, commercial radio was rated as the most useful and preferred medium both before and while driving. However, only a small, discrete group of commuters were likely to be influenced to change transportation mode. Implication of the survey results for the design of a real-time motorist information system are discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 71-78"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90126-B","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82991147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An algorithm for computer assisted sequencing and scheduling of terminal area operations","authors":"Roger G. Dear, Yosef S. Sherif","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90132-A","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90132-A","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A methodology is proposed for sequencing and scheduling of aircraft in high density terminal areas. Termed Constrained Position Shifting (CPS), this methodology is examined and its effectiveness tested. Potential capacity improvements are noted over the First-Come, First-Served, Runway (FCFS-RW) strategy, especially during peak periods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 129-139"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90132-A","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74669488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The new oil crisis and fuel economy technologies: Preparing the light transportation industry for the 1990s","authors":"Daniel Sperling","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90136-E","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90136-E","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 146-147"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90136-E","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79397054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimating the demand for small community air service","authors":"Kenneth C. Kaemmerle","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90129-E","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90129-E","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This research addresses the need to estimate the demand for scheduled commercial passenger service in small communities. Data were collected describing the social, economic, and geographic characteristics of 260 small communities in the contiguous 48 United States, with airports enplaning at least 2,500 passengers in 1985. Small communities were defined as those with service area populations of 200,000 or less. Descriptive data included population, income, labor force characteristics, community economic base, geographic location, departures, air fare per mile, driving distance to an alternative airport, and the attractiveness of driving to an alternative airport. A methodology for selecting the most probable alternative airport when choices are present is included. Multiple regression models were specified with the data collected to estimate enplanements. The best model explained 80% of the variation in the data. The model was demonstrated by estimating the demand for air service at 52 small communities in the state of Texas. The methodology was designed to be easily applied in the field. Only readily available U.S. Census Bureau and Official Airline Guide data are required.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 101-112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90129-E","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"98870929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transportation networks: A quantitative treatment","authors":"James F. Campbell","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90138-G","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90138-G","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 150-151"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90138-G","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"111631105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Encouraging cooperation among competitors: The case of motor carrier deregulation and collective ratemaking","authors":"W.Bruce Allen","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90133-B","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90133-B","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 141-143"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90133-B","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"101072535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Transportation and traffic theory: Proceedings of the tenth international symposium","authors":"Caroline Fisk","doi":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90137-F","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0191-2607(91)90137-F","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101260,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part A: General","volume":"25 2","pages":"Pages 147-150"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1991-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0191-2607(91)90137-F","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86482886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}