Solar Energy Advances最新文献

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Unveiling the Potential of Infrared Thermography in Quantitative Investigation of Potential-Induced Degradation in Crystalline Silicon PV Module 揭示红外热成像技术在定量研究晶体硅光伏组件电位诱导退化方面的潜力
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2023.100049
Ravi Kumar, Vishal E. Puranik, Rajesh Gupta
{"title":"Unveiling the Potential of Infrared Thermography in Quantitative Investigation of Potential-Induced Degradation in Crystalline Silicon PV Module","authors":"Ravi Kumar,&nbsp;Vishal E. Puranik,&nbsp;Rajesh Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2023.100049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2023.100049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Potential-induced degradation-shunting (PID-s) is a severe degradation mechanism in photovoltaic (PV) cells that significantly impacts module performance. Regular monitoring and quantitative assessment of PID-s are crucial for ensuring long-term reliability of PV systems. Current-voltage (<em>I-V</em>) characteristics and electroluminescence (EL) imaging are commonly used for quantitative performance evaluation of PID-s affected PV modules. However, conducting <em>I-V</em> measurements is time-consuming when performed across large PV installations, while EL imaging has limitations for severely PID-s affected cells with no EL emission. This article proposes the use of inverse infrared (IR<sub>INV</sub>) thermography as an alternative investigation technique for PID-s in a PV module. IR<sub>INV</sub> imaging is fast and also effectively maps the severely PID-s affected cells in a PV module. This article unveils the potential of IR<sub>INV</sub> thermography in quantitative investigation of PID-s in crystalline silicon PV modules. The module level investigations present insights into the correlations between cell temperature and power output under different imaging conditions using Pearson correlation. Results indicate that steady-state operation with medium input current provides the most suitable condition for quantitative PID-s investigation. Furthermore, cell level analysis of temperature distribution and its variation with PID-s progression has been investigated using histogram and kernel density estimation (KDE) statistical tools, revealing distinct patterns as PID-s progresses. A PID-s severity index is proposed based on KDE, providing a quantitative measure of PID-s severity in cells within a PV module. This work provides valuable insights into the use of IR<sub>INV</sub> thermography as an alternative technique for assessment of PID-s in PV module inspection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100049"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113123000177/pdfft?md5=754b02b037d0a5f55ceb4c23bc2c9a59&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113123000177-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138988277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Criticality and severity of adverse effects of the sun on performance of solar PV systems 太阳对太阳能光伏系统性能不利影响的关键性和严重性
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100058
Samuel Gyamfi , Bernard Aboagye , Michael Obeng , Forson Peprah
{"title":"Criticality and severity of adverse effects of the sun on performance of solar PV systems","authors":"Samuel Gyamfi ,&nbsp;Bernard Aboagye ,&nbsp;Michael Obeng ,&nbsp;Forson Peprah","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seja.2024.100058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The sun is an inexhaustible source of energy that could be harnessed by solar photovoltaic (PV) technology to supply all the present and future global electricity needs. However, using the sun as source of energy for PV systems to generate electricity is associated with numerous adverse effects on the performance of PV systems. This paper aims to provide comprehensive information about the criticality and severity of adverse effects of the sun on performance of PV systems. Through a detailed literature review, risk priority number (RPN) analysis was performed to quantify the relative degree of a combination of criticality and severity of adverse effects of the sun on performance of PV systems under initial exposure to solar radiation, high solar radiation, low solar radiation, intermittent solar radiation, and no solar radiation conditions. Finally, it suggests strategies to curtail these effects to ensure sustainability of PV systems. It was concluded that under each condition of solar radiation intensity, the performance of PV systems is adversely affected. However, the degree of criticality and severity of these adverse effects vary under various solar radiation conditions. The combined effects of the determinants of low solar radiation make low solar radiation condition the dominant adverse effects with the highest RPN. Consequently, the degree of criticality and severity of the adverse effects on the performance of PV systems is highest under low solar radiation condition. Thus, the determinants of low solar radiation should be given priority consideration in the design, installation, operation, and maintenance of PV systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100058"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000081/pdfft?md5=c508d6d1ac77288be7cdad1373c4eb98&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000081-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140341956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using a ledger to facilitate autonomous peer-to-peer virtual net metering of solar photovoltaic distributed generation 使用分类账促进太阳能光伏分布式发电的自主点对点虚拟净计量
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100064
Julia M. Groza , Seyyed Ali Sadat , Koami S. Hayibo , Joshua M. Pearce
{"title":"Using a ledger to facilitate autonomous peer-to-peer virtual net metering of solar photovoltaic distributed generation","authors":"Julia M. Groza ,&nbsp;Seyyed Ali Sadat ,&nbsp;Koami S. Hayibo ,&nbsp;Joshua M. Pearce","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To assist electric utilities to overcome limitations of centralized billing and encourage distributed production of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity, this study designs and assesses a novel open-source autonomous virtual utility to monitor users and enable peer-to-peer trading. This study provides system design and software implementation of the concept using blockchain technology written in Solidity and Truffle. A set of smart contracts adds users to a system and monitors their demand, PV generation, and facilitates transactions between users on an hourly basis when one user has PV-generated excess electricity, and another has demand. Unit tests for each of the contracts’ methods are developed in Solidity, and data on gas usage and costs is collected. Once the contracts have been written and evaluated, a JavaScript simulation is developed to use the contracts on real load and PV generation data for one year on an hourly basis. The results of two case studies are quantified: 1) true peers, where all houses are prosumers with rooftop PV, and 2) intermittent transition case, where PV deployment and demand are more varied. The results found that with ten users in the system, the true peers case study resulted in an uneconomic number of exchanges, but the intermittent transition case study resulted in more than a factor of twenty increases in exchanges and net cost savings. The savings more than doubles for both cases when time of use pricing is in effect. The system utility increases with more variability of PV production across participating users and is recommended for utilities targeting increases in distributed generation during the energy transition.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100064"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000147/pdfft?md5=fee84bf5e801ee3f4761909b49c9af07&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000147-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141985375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Selective transmission and absorption in oxide-based nanofluid optical filters for PVT collectors 用于 PVT 集热器的氧化物基纳米流体光学滤波器中的选择性透射和吸收
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100078
Mohit Barthwal , Dibakar Rakshit
{"title":"Selective transmission and absorption in oxide-based nanofluid optical filters for PVT collectors","authors":"Mohit Barthwal ,&nbsp;Dibakar Rakshit","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The division of the solar spectrum in a photovoltaic thermal (PVT) collector serves a dual purpose for separate heat and electricity applications. One part of the spectrum is used for generating electricity, which prevents the excessive temperature increase of the photovoltaic cells, while the other part facilitates a thermal gain. This concept is termed as spectral beam splitting (SBS). In this work, the implementation of SBS in a PVT collector using a nanofluid-based optical filter is investigated. An optical model, based on Rayleigh scattering, is developed to analyze various oxide-based nanofluids for SBS. The purpose of the model is to determine the transmittance and absorbance of ZnO, Fe<sub>3</sub>O<sub>4</sub>, and SiO<sub>2</sub>-based nanofluids across the solar spectrum range of 300 nm to 2500nm. The model takes into account the complex refractive indices of the particles and base fluids to determine the scattering, extinction, and absorption efficiencies of the nanofluids being studied. The oxide-based nanofluids outperformed the polypyrrole and Cu<sub>9</sub>S<sub>5</sub>-based nanofluids in terms of spectral transmission and absorption of sunlight. Water, de-ionized water, and ethylene glycol are used as base fluids. The nanoparticle-base fluid duos determine the agglomeration and size of the particles in the nanofluid and hence affect their optical properties. Therefore, ZnO-based nanofluids are synthesized in-house to correlate the effects of agglomeration and particle size on the optical properties of the nanofluids derived from the developed theoretical model. Using ethylene glycol as a base fluid has a significant impact on reducing agglomeration, resulting in smaller and more stable nanoparticles, in comparison to using de-ionized water. Furthermore, the influence of particle size, dispersion in the base fluid, and optical length on the optical properties of the nanofluid are examined. It is concluded that adjusting the size (dispersion), concentration, and optical length of the particles can allow for the efficient use of the solar spectrum to generate both electrical and thermal energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100078"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Design and modeling of PV-integrated Double Skin Facades and application to retrofit buildings 光伏一体化双层幕墙的设计和建模以及在改造建筑中的应用
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100067
Somil Yadav , Caroline-Hachem Vermette , Md.Nadim Heyat Jilani , Gilles Desthieux
{"title":"Design and modeling of PV-integrated Double Skin Facades and application to retrofit buildings","authors":"Somil Yadav ,&nbsp;Caroline-Hachem Vermette ,&nbsp;Md.Nadim Heyat Jilani ,&nbsp;Gilles Desthieux","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Double Skin Façade (DSF) system comprises two glazing layers with a ventilated cavity. Integrating photovoltaic (PV) modules within the outer layer of DSFs offers an efficient method for electricity generation. Current tools for modeling and analyzing DSF systems are complex and resource-intensive, lacking the capability to evaluate the performance of innovative PV-DSF systems during the early design stage. This study develops a mathematical model to evaluate the electrical and thermal performance of PV-DSF systems, considering architectural design elements such as PV color and relative orientation. Based on an energy balance approach, the model is particularly suited for designing PV-DSF systems in heritage buildings, which often have color and relative orientation constraints. The model is applied to assess the performance of PV-DSF systems with conventional clear glass PV and colored front glass PV modules under the climatic conditions of Montreal, Canada. Results indicated that conventional clear glass PV module exhibit higher PV cell temperature than colored PV modules due to greater transmissivity, with peak temperature differences at noon of 5.5 °C, 6.2 °C, and 6.5 °C for orange, blue, and gray PV modules, respectively. On the contrary, the influence of PV's color front glass on room air temperature is non-significant. Furthermore, the optimal orientation for maximum energy yield is not always south-facing; it depends on the hourly distribution of the beam, diffuse solar irradiation, and ambient air temperature. For Montreal, west-facing DSFs produce more electrical and thermal energy on a summer design day because the hourly distribution of beam radiation is skewed towards afternoon hours.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100067"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000172/pdfft?md5=b9865f8d1039451a31e0644dac9282ad&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000172-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142168836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mathematical modelling and technical analysis of an auxiliary system to reflect solar radiations for PV panels: Effect of mirror height on the system performance 光伏电池板反射太阳辐射辅助系统的数学建模和技术分析:镜面高度对系统性能的影响
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100069
Rahim Moltames, Younes Noorollahi, Hossein Yousefi
{"title":"Mathematical modelling and technical analysis of an auxiliary system to reflect solar radiations for PV panels: Effect of mirror height on the system performance","authors":"Rahim Moltames,&nbsp;Younes Noorollahi,&nbsp;Hossein Yousefi","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study represents the design of a new auxiliary system to reflect solar radiations for PV panels. The goal is to choose the best mirror height for the proposed system, in which, despite the increase in the power production, the construction costs of the reflective system remain reasonable. Using a maximum PowerPoint Tracker System (MPPT), the sun is tracked to optimize solar radiation on the PV module. To analyze the energy aspects of the proposed system, an energy balance model with zero-dimensional characteristics was developed, owing to the uniform distribution of solar radiation and the thinness of the PV layers. In this model, the temperature distribution along the thickness of the panel layers is considered constant. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed system enables the production of approximately 2.9 times more electrical energy in comparison to conventional PVs without the concentrator, thereby demonstrating the energetic viability of the proposed system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100069"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000196/pdfft?md5=d529f60781ab3098bfdc5f14e682d848&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000196-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142164202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Oversizing solar heating plants in industry: A cost-effective solution to increase solar fractions 工业领域太阳能加热设备的超大规模:提高太阳能利用率的经济有效解决方案
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100071
Felix Pag, Mateo Jesper, Klaus Vajen, Ulrike Jordan
{"title":"Oversizing solar heating plants in industry: A cost-effective solution to increase solar fractions","authors":"Felix Pag,&nbsp;Mateo Jesper,&nbsp;Klaus Vajen,&nbsp;Ulrike Jordan","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) is one of the solutions to decarbonise industrial heat demand and reduce CO<sub>2</sub>-emissions. One of the barriers to the promotion of solar heat, often cited in addition to economic aspects, is the low share that solar heat is able to provide. The VDI 3988 guideline is a standardised methodology for pre-designing the collector field and estimating the specific yield. It focuses on the summer heat demand which results in comparably low solar fractions especially when the heat demand profile is seasonal. Based on TRNSYS simulations, this study analyses the reduction of the specific solar yield and the impact on the solar fraction and LCOH when the collector area is oversized. It is found that the specific yield decreases, as expected, with increasing collector area due to solar excess heat, with this effect being more significant for non-seasonal process heat load profiles. Furthermore, the LCOH is stable or can even be increased by a moderate oversizing of 25..50 % compared to the design of the VDI 3988 design due to economies of scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100071"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance evaluation of artificial neural network and hybrid artificial neural network based genetic algorithm models for global horizontal irradiance forecasting 人工神经网络和基于遗传算法的混合人工神经网络模型在全球水平辐照度预报中的性能评估
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100054
A. Wahidna , N. Sookia , Y.K. Ramgolam
{"title":"Performance evaluation of artificial neural network and hybrid artificial neural network based genetic algorithm models for global horizontal irradiance forecasting","authors":"A. Wahidna ,&nbsp;N. Sookia ,&nbsp;Y.K. Ramgolam","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The output of photovoltaic (PV) systems is highly dependent on Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). Thus, accurate prediction of GHI is essential to meet increasing energy demands, stabilise the electric grid system and mitigate climate change. The main objective of this study is to accurately model and forecast GHI at Albion, Mauritius for a time step of every 15 min using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and hybrid Artificial Neural Network based Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA) techniques. Ground-based measurement (GBM) data, collected every 15 min for a winter month was checked for stationarity and normalised to enhance its quality. Only strongly correlated input variables were selected to minimise uncertainties in forecasts. Special emphasis is given to short-term forecasting with a relatively small dataset size. This work is repeated for 30 min and 1 h time scales. The study is further validated using satellite data for a different location (Curepipe) in Mauritius. The performance evaluation over different statistical metrics indicated that the ANN model has the best capabilities for GHI forecasting, regardless of the location. The highest quality forecasts from the ANN technique resulted in values of 0.9999 for correlation coefficient (r), 0.9999 for coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), 0.1537 W/m<sup>2</sup> for Mean Absolute Error (MAE), 0.0641 W/m<sup>2</sup> for Mean Square Error (MSE) and 0.2532 W/m<sup>2</sup> for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The best ANN technique outperformed the strongest hybrid ANN-GA technique for every measured performance indicator.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100054"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000044/pdfft?md5=956fc04634e2c27f53bacaef01e551c0&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000044-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139686182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Enhancing the reliability of probabilistic PV power forecasts using conformal prediction 利用保形预测提高光伏发电概率预测的可靠性
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100059
Yvet Renkema , Lennard Visser , Tarek AlSkaif
{"title":"Enhancing the reliability of probabilistic PV power forecasts using conformal prediction","authors":"Yvet Renkema ,&nbsp;Lennard Visser ,&nbsp;Tarek AlSkaif","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seja.2024.100059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increasing integration of renewable energy, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV) power, presents challenges for power system operation. Accurate forecasts of renewable energy are both financially beneficial for electricity suppliers and necessary for grid operators to optimize operation and avoid grid imbalances. This paper proposes a forecasting framework to implement conformal prediction (CP) on top of point prediction models, which predict the PV power on a day-ahead basis, to quantify the uncertainty of those predictions. Simple and multiple linear regression, along with random forest regression, are used to construct the point predictions based on weather forecasts. Several variants of CP, including weighted CP, CP with k-nearest neighbors (KNN), CP with Mondrian binning, and conformal predictive systems, are built to transform the point predictions into rigorous uncertainty intervals or cumulative distribution functions to enhance reliability. The framework’s performance is evaluated using large datasets of weather predictions and PV power output in the Netherlands. Results indicate that CP combined with KNN and/or Mondrian binning after a linear regressor outperforms the corresponding linear quantile regressor. CP with KNN and Mondrian binning after using random forest regression demonstrates the most accurate probabilistic PV power forecasts, improving the weighted interval score by 14% compared to multiple linear quantile regression.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100059"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000093/pdfft?md5=e50bf24db2d7c7366a78de1ce2cf9e6d&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000093-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140604951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparison of solar district heating and renovation of buildings as measures for decarbonization of heat supply in rural areas 将太阳能区域供热与建筑物翻新作为农村地区供热脱碳措施的比较
Solar Energy Advances Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100060
Jan Kelch, Oleg Kusyy, Johannes Zipplies, Janybek Orozaliev, Klaus Vajen
{"title":"Comparison of solar district heating and renovation of buildings as measures for decarbonization of heat supply in rural areas","authors":"Jan Kelch,&nbsp;Oleg Kusyy,&nbsp;Johannes Zipplies,&nbsp;Janybek Orozaliev,&nbsp;Klaus Vajen","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study two different decarbonization strategies for rural heat supply are compared on the example of 180 buildings located in a small village in Germany with about 860 inhabitants and typically mainly old buildings, partly in half-timbered construction. The comparison shows that erection of a solar district heating system with solar fraction of about 67 % leads to similar heating costs as an energy efficient renovation followed by installation of decentralized air source heat pumps for most of the buildings. Both concepts aim to achieve a heat supply that is free from the local use of fossil fuels. While the solar district heating system can probably be realized within a few years and therefore achieves the full CO<sub>2</sub> savings promptly, this would take decades for the implementation of energy efficient renovation and heat pumps due to low renovation rate. Reaching climate-neutrality for the heat supply could thus be accelerated significantly by the construction of a solar district heating system. Moreover, the two decarbonization approaches do not appear to be fundamentally mutually exclusive: subsequent steady renovation of connected buildings will either increase solar share in heat supply or enable connection of new consumers at similar solar coverage rate. However, it should be also noted that with solar district heating alone, not always the same thermal comfort as with reinforced building renovation is achieved.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100060"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266711312400010X/pdfft?md5=e097ad514ad30d676a76ab75029062d0&pid=1-s2.0-S266711312400010X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141401702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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