Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-06-21DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100062
Thomas Kaltenbach, Markus Heck, Werner Platzer
{"title":"Adhesive materials in solar-thermal collectors: Results of seven years field exposure and accelerated aging tests used to simulate 25 years of operation","authors":"Thomas Kaltenbach, Markus Heck, Werner Platzer","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seja.2024.100062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The adhesive joint takes over multiple functions in the solar thermal collector, such as the structural bonding, the absorption of thermal stress of the transparent cover to the collector housing, and the sealing of the collector with respect to humidity, air and particle entry. Thus, it is a central component in a solar thermal collector.</p><p>The aging effects occurring in solar collectors within the adhesive material are by now not well understood. They are determined primarily by the temperature level in the collector. This temperature level has significantly increased during the last years due to the enhancement of the collector efficiency and the trend towards solar thermal systems with higher solar fractions resulting in an increase in stagnation time and temperature. Furthermore, durability analyses of novel market products are needed, since only little is known about their long-term behavior.</p><p>The accelerated aging tests described in this article represent the measured load in the solar collector at the component adhesive joint to a calculated corresponding period of 25 years.</p><p>We found that all test specimens showed a 100 % cohesive fracture pattern after these stress tests. Thus, the adhesion between the transparent cover and the collector housing can be assumed to be ensured using the framework with the load depicted in the defined test cycle over 25 years. Compared to the reference value before aging, the tensile strength values change only marginally after being degraded.</p><p>The results of the mechanical properties of the small test specimens before and after seven years of exposure in maritime climate were determined and compiled. A nondestructive characterization method at the test specimens with Raman spectroscopy accompanied before the mechanical tensile testing was done.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100062"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000123/pdfft?md5=2fed4fa3d2675c14a966d4a5acda665f&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000123-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141480972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-06-12DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100061
Armel Zambou Kenfack , Modeste Kameni Nematchoua , Elie Simo , Venant Sorel Chara-Dackou , Boris Abeli Pekarou Pemi
{"title":"Performance improvement of hybrid photovoltaic/thermal systems: A metaheuristic artificial intelligence approach to select the best model using 10E analysis","authors":"Armel Zambou Kenfack , Modeste Kameni Nematchoua , Elie Simo , Venant Sorel Chara-Dackou , Boris Abeli Pekarou Pemi","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) hybrid systems have until now encountered a real problem of sustainability-energy-cost concordance. Faced with this situation, new types of designs are in full expansion aimed at filling the limits of some. This therefore involves a very appropriate decision-making process. The energy, exergy, economic, environmental, energo-environmental, exergo-environmental, enviro-economic, energy-enviro-economic, exergo-enviro-economic and ergonomic analysis is carried out on seven PV/T configurations and therefore the simplified models are presented for a better interpretation of the mechanisms from different perspectives and the integration of a selection algorithm. Thus, an optimal selection methodology using the hybridization of genetic algorithms and multi-objective optimization by particle swarms based on ten performance indicators is proposed. The results obtained with good convergence and precision allow us to observe that the Air PV/T model is better. However, the study shows good viability of PV/T models with a cost of energy and a return on investment time all lower than 0.1$/kWh and 3 years, respectively. Models with phase change materials (PCM) minimize thermal losses better than those with air, nanofluids or thermoelectric generator (TEG). The bifacial model stands out with a good energy-environmental balance compared to the water model which has a better durability index greater than 2.0 and a good ergonomic factor.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100061"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000111/pdfft?md5=854969f2ac23d5eb3027d785ae1f1222&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000111-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141402160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-09-26DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100072
Alberto Boretti
{"title":"Estimating the efficiency of a PEM electrolyzer fed by a PV plant in NEOM City","authors":"Alberto Boretti","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The NEOM City microgrid, designed to be free from fossil fuels generation, is proposed to feature energy supply by wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP) with internal thermal energy storage (iTES), and nuclear, plus energy storage by battery (BES), hydrogen (HES) and external thermal energy storage (eTES). The operation of a 100 MW PEM electrolyzer cell (EC) feed with a 100 MW solar PV plant, which is part of the HES, is then analyzed. Based on operational data of old plants, the average annual efficiency of the PEM EC plant is assessed at 0.653, close to the rated power efficiency of 0.676, and higher than the maximum power efficiency of 0.604. Given the continuous improvements in PEM electrolyzers, a novel plant is expected to deliver an efficiency of at least 0.1 more, at a 0.753 annual average. The manuscript also demonstrates the extensive variability of solar energy from daily to annual timescales and its impact on the fluctuating electricity input to electrolyzers, affecting hydrogen production. It emphasizes the importance of choosing suitable electrolyzers and integrating short-term energy storage to stabilize the power supply, and it innovatively examines green hydrogen production variability across multiple time scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100072"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142424716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100055
Kedar Mehta, Wilfried Zörner
{"title":"Comfort in cold: A novel approach to sustainable building energy efficiency","authors":"Kedar Mehta, Wilfried Zörner","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seja.2024.100055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Kyrgyzstan's high-altitude rural housing sector consumes 3–5 times more energy than European buildings due to ageing infrastructure, lack of insulation, and reliance on non-sustainable resources. One potential solution is the implementation of thermal insulation. However, due to limited public awareness of energy efficiency, inadequate government policies, insufficient technology, and challenging geography, people in rural areas rely on non-sustainable resources such as coal, cow dung, and firewood for heating, which creates a negative impact on the local ecosystems. To close the energy efficiency gap, the paper proposes a sustainable and holistic approach that integrates thermal insulation with effective energy efficiency planning using a staged-renovation approach by utilising locally available insulation materials / resources. The feasibility study presented in the paper was conducted with a simulation-based parametric study to recognise the potential of novel and sustainable insulation structures on building heat demand. This innovative approach can potentially reduce heat demand in high-altitude houses by as much as 70 %, offering a transformative solution. Furthermore, its adaptability makes it transferable to similar high-altitude communities, thus advancing sustainable energy practices for climate change mitigation and contributing to broader sustainable development goals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100055"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000056/pdfft?md5=42280564183359970c60a2d2708ce0ff&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000056-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139738751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-03-13DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100057
Joakim Munkhammar
{"title":"Very short-term probabilistic and scenario-based forecasting of solar irradiance using Markov-chain mixture distribution modeling","authors":"Joakim Munkhammar","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seja.2024.100057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates probabilistic and scenario-based forecasting of solar irradiance with Markov-chain mixture (MCM) distribution modeling, Persistence Ensemble (PeEn) and Climatology. Forecasts from MCM models with uniform and empirical emission distribution settings, respectively, are compared with PeEn and Climatology in terms of probabilistic forecasting performance. The MCM model is also extended with scenario generation capabilities and compared to scenario generation of the Climatology by means of Monte Carlo sampling. Forecasts were made on minute resolution normalized solar irradiance, i.e. the clear-sky index, from National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute for two climatic regions: Oahu, Hawaii, USA and Norrköping, Sweden, respectively. Results show that the MCM models are neither necessarily the most reliable, nor the sharpest in terms of Prediction Normalized Average Width (PINAW), but they are the most accurate in terms of Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). MCM models with uniform and empirical emission distribution settings perform similar in the tested probabilistic forecasting metrics. In terms of scenario forecasting, MCM models with <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>30</mn></mrow></math></span> perform similar in probability distribution goodness-of-fit and autocorrelation Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and superior to <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span> and <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>10</mn></mrow></math></span> number of states. Mathematically, forecasts from the MCM model with empirical distribution setting are shown to correspond to PeEn and Climatology forecasts given special settings of the MCM model. Based on the conclusions, the suggestion is to use the MCM scenario forecast generator with uniform emission distribution setting as benchmark for scenario forecasts of very short-term solar irradiance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100057"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266711312400007X/pdfft?md5=c1a754a3e6e8355da034b86914cac611&pid=1-s2.0-S266711312400007X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140138806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-10-21DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100075
Y. Louvet , S. Ahlgrimm , F. Pag , K. Vajen
{"title":"Combining expansion turbines, heat pumps, and low-temperature solar heat for enhanced primary energy savings in gas pressure regulating stations","authors":"Y. Louvet , S. Ahlgrimm , F. Pag , K. Vajen","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>According to previous studies, gas pressure regulating and metering stations (GPRMS) in Germany account for a primary energy consumption between 1.4 and 2.0 TWh/a for the preheating of natural gas flowing through. This work assesses the potential of reducing this consumption through the combined use of expansion turbines, heat pumps, and solar thermal collectors. For this purpose, operation data of 57 GPRMS of a German gas network operator are used to design systems combining in different scenarios two and three of these technologies in each GPRMS. Using an in-house model developed in Python the 57 systems are simulated over one year with an hourly time step. The results show a potential for the installation of expansion turbines with a total capacity of 3.57 MW<sub>el</sub>, leading, combined with the renewable heating technologies, to a reduction of more than 99 % of the original gas consumption for gas preheating. The results are then extrapolated to the whole country using scaling factors, showing a potential for feeding-in between 510 and 1,140 GWh/a of surplus electricity into the grid, on top of the almost complete elimination of the gas consumption for gas preheating. In total, the use of the complete technical potential available would lead to net primary energy savings between 1,710 and 3,650 GWh/a and net CO<sub>2</sub> emissions reductions between 470 and 1,010 kt/a. Overall, this work demonstrates that the combination of expansion turbines and heat pumps technically allows an almost complete decarbonation of the operation of GPRMS in Germany. In addition, significant amounts of electricity could be fed into the grid, especially during the winter months, which would contribute to decarbonise the electricity mix of the country. The amount of electricity fed into the grid can be increased with the additional use of low-temperature solar thermal systems. To exploit this potential in the future, current regulations should be adapted and targeted support programmes launched.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100075"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142656368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-03-02DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100056
Abdelhadi Mortadi , El Mokhtar El Hafidi , Hamid. Nasrellah , Mohamed Monkade , Reddad El Moznine
{"title":"Investigation of bandgap grading on performances of perovskite solar cell using SCAPS-1D and impedance spectroscopy","authors":"Abdelhadi Mortadi , El Mokhtar El Hafidi , Hamid. Nasrellah , Mohamed Monkade , Reddad El Moznine","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seja.2024.100056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The optimization the bandgap of a solar cell is an important consideration to achieve better high efficiency. The ideal bandgap for a solar cell would be one that matches the energy of photons in the solar spectrum, allowing for the efficient absorption of light and conversion into electricity.In the current study; the performance of the perovskite-based solar cells was investigated numerically in band gap from 1.55 to 1.67 (eV) using the one-dimensional SCAPS simulation software not only for the current-voltage characteristics but also for the complex impedance (Z*). The effects of band gap energy of the perovskite absorber layer were evaluated from the J-V curves have shown a maximum efficiency is achieved at 1.61 (eV).From the analysis of the complex impedance (Z*) data only one maximum was observed in the Nyquist and Bode plots. In this case; further analysis war carried to explorethe complex modulus (M*) spectra. Therefore this analysis revealed the existence of tow clears maxima in the Nyquist and Bode plots. The de-convolution approach allowed us to identify the origin of each relaxation. In addition the electrical parameters such as the relaxation time (τ<sub>1</sub>), and the (τ<sub>2</sub>) related to the electron recombination and ionic transport were extracted. Moreover, a good correlation was obtained between all parameters from the I-V and complex modulus (M*) data to explain the maximum efficiency achieved at 1.61 (eV).These studies basically the combinationof the complex impedance (Z*) and modulus (M*) provide an appropriate path for the optimization of the solar cell efficiency.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100056"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000068/pdfft?md5=9f8245f22edbecf540314c64319202fe&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000068-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140209476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2023.100050
Christopher Pourier, Francisco Beltrán, Nelson Sommerfeldt
{"title":"Solar photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) technology collectors and free cooling in ground source heat pump systems","authors":"Christopher Pourier, Francisco Beltrán, Nelson Sommerfeldt","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2023.100050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2023.100050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems offer a low carbon heating and cooling solution for the decarbonization of buildings. As global temperatures rise, the cooling requirements of buildings will grow, even in regions where cooling systems have been historically uncommon due to their colder climate, such as Sweden. The combination of free cooling (FC) with GSHPs seems like a natural way to meet the increasing cooling needs, since the heat extracted from the building during the summer months can be injected into the ground to potentially regenerate the borehole field and enhance heat pump performance. However, a technology that is generally integrated with GSHP systems for borehole regeneration are photovoltaic/thermal collectors. This study investigates the performance of a ground source heat pump system with free cooling for a multi-family building in Stockholm, Sweden, and the interference on the free cooling capabilities of the system when photovoltaic/thermal collectors are present. The results demonstrate that the integration of PVT and FC not only maintains the cooling supply but also enhances heat pump performance, all the while reducing borehole length and land area requirements.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100050"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113123000189/pdfft?md5=7d49b6c065f6a67df755176c52cc3bb7&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113123000189-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139393203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100051
Damu Murali , Iván P. Acosta-Pazmiño , Alexander Loris , Abel Climente García , Stefano Benni , Francesco Tinti , João Gomes
{"title":"Experimental assessment of a solar photovoltaic-thermal system in a livestock farm in Italy","authors":"Damu Murali , Iván P. Acosta-Pazmiño , Alexander Loris , Abel Climente García , Stefano Benni , Francesco Tinti , João Gomes","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100051","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents an experimental evaluation of the performance of a solar photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) system in a swine farm at Mirandola in Italy. In this project named RES4LIVE, funded by the EU’s Horizon 2020 program, a PVT system is installed to replace fossil fuel consumption in one of the barns on the farm. The electrical energy from the collectors is utilized to operate the heat pump and provide electricity to the barn, whereas the thermal energy from the collector is stored in a borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) for further use by a 35 kW heat pump. The hybrid solar field consists of 24 covered PVT flat plate collectors (7.68 kW<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi><mi>l</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and 25 kW<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>t</mi><mi>h</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) with a total aperture area of 39.3 m<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span>, which can increase the temperature of the heat transfer fluid (HTF) to up to 40 °C. The PVT system is connected to a modular solar central (SC) with a standardized design that can also be used for other similar applications. The hybrid solar system complemented by energy storage is expected to save approximately 20,850 kg CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span>/year. The data collected from the PVT system, SC, and BTES are rigorously analyzed to evaluate its overall performance. A comprehensive performance assessment reveals the capability of the solar system to reduce carbon emissions and effectively replace fossil fuel consumption in the agricultural sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100051"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000019/pdfft?md5=375f96fcde0d2693fa916c7f0db4ec61&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000019-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139393653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Energy AdvancesPub Date : 2024-01-01Epub Date: 2024-07-14DOI: 10.1016/j.seja.2024.100063
Joakim Munkhammar
{"title":"Recursive copula-augmented space-correlated temporal very-short term spatiotemporal probabilistic forecasting of the clear-sky index","authors":"Joakim Munkhammar","doi":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seja.2024.100063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study introduces a recursive model framework for augmenting separate temporal probabilistic forecasts of multiple correlated time-series with a copula correlation model. The model is applied to the Markov-chain mixture distribution (MCM) model to spatiotemporally forecast minute resolution normalized solar irradiance, c.f. the clear-sky index, derived from radiometer array measurements of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) for 18 geographically adjacent stations at Oahu, Hawaii, USA. The results are evaluated by univariate and multivariate probabilistic forecast metrics in comparison with forecasts from purely temporal MCM, Climatology and the spatiotemporal Multivariate Persistence Ensemble (MuPEn) benchmark. Results show that the Climatology and the MuPEn forecasts are most reliable, while superiority in sharpness, based on Prediction Interval Normalized Average Width (PINAW), depends on forecast horizon. In terms of accuracy, measured with the univariate measure Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), the MCM model (with and without copula) forecasts are most accurate for the first two steps ahead forecasts, while the Climatology and MuPEn both have superior score for longer horizons. In terms of multivariate scores, the accuracy estimate Energy Score results for the forecasts are similar to the CRPS, while the Variogram Score, which takes into consideration the correlational structure of the multivariate time-series, is significantly improved by the copula-augmented MCM model compared to the univariate MCM model. The MuPEn model generated the lowest Variogram Score among all models. Tests with fewer stations and swapped training and test data gave similar model-to-model relative dynamics with variations in magnitude.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101174,"journal":{"name":"Solar Energy Advances","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100063"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667113124000135/pdfft?md5=de6d960d68468365c472126739d107d3&pid=1-s2.0-S2667113124000135-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141710966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}