Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy最新文献_第8页

Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy 生命周期经济中的政府债务和社会保障

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00023-8

Thomas F. Cooley

引用次数: 23

The risk-sharing implications of alternative social security arrangements 替代社会保障安排的风险分担问题

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00029-9

Selahattin İmrohoroğlu

引用次数: 9

The risk-sharing implications of alternative social security arrangements 替代社会保障安排的风险分担问题

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00028-7

Kjetil Storesletten, Chris I. Telmer, Amir Yaron

{"title":"The risk-sharing implications of alternative social security arrangements","authors":"Kjetil Storesletten, Chris I. Telmer, Amir Yaron","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00028-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00028-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An important aspect of the current U.S. social security system is the tradeoff between the risk-sharing it provides and the distortions it imparts on private decisions. We focus on this tradeoff as it applies to labor market risk and capital accumulation. Specifically, we compare the current U.S. system to a particular proposal put forth in 1996 by the federal Advisory Council on Social Security (1996). We also examine the merits of abolishing social security altogether. We find that, absent general equilibrium effects, the risk-sharing benefits of the current system outweigh the distortions associated with either the alternative or a system of privately administered pensions. Once we incorporate equilibrium effects, however, the interaction between the social security system, private-savings decisions, and the means with which the government finances its nonpension expenditures results in a significant welfare benefit being associated with either reform or abolition. These welfare gains arise in spite of the fact that we explicitly incorporate the ‘social security debt’: the social cost of meeting the obligations associated with the current system.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"50 ","pages":"Pages 213-259"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00028-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73527129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 137

Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational, and international risk-sharing 代际、代际和国际风险分担的社会保障和制度

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00027-5

Urban J. Jermann

引用次数: 12

Effect of pensions on saving: analysis with data from the health and retirement study 养老金对储蓄的影响:基于健康与退休研究数据的分析

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00031-7

John Rust

引用次数: 2

Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy 生命周期经济中的政府债务和社会保障

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00022-6

Mark Gertler

引用次数: 250

Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms 即将到来的公共养老金改革的预期效应

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00025-1

Christopher Phelan

引用次数: 3

Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms 即将到来的公共养老金改革的预期效应

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00024-X

Monika Bütler

{"title":"Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms","authors":"Monika Bütler","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00024-X","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00024-X","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In many countries, current unfunded public pension systems are unsustainable. Though agents recognize that fiscal imbalances will be eliminated sooner or later, the timing of reforms and future policy mixes are typically unknown. The paper proposes a tractable framework to study forthcoming but ill-specified events, such as a crisis in the pension system, within a macroeconomic model based on individual life-cycle optimization. The uncertainty about the timing of a future stabilization is modeled by a subjective hazard function where the state-dependent hazard rate depends on a measure of the public-pension system's expected net liabilities. Using Switzerland as a motivating example, the model is calibrated and simulated under a number of alternative policy options and different perception patterns. Expectations prior to a reform are shown to have large impacts on aggregate variables and on cross-generations profiles of consumption and labor supply. In comparison to well-specified pre-announced stabilization policies, timing uncertainty and misperceptions can lead to welfare losses, in particular for the middle-aged and the elderly.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"50 ","pages":"Pages 119-159"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00024-X","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56241637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 31

Introduction to the series 本系列简介

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)90017-9

B.T. McCallum, C.I. Plosser (Editors)

引用次数: 0

Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging? 随着美国人口的老龄化，社会保障和医疗保险是否仍然可行?

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy Pub Date : 1999-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00020-2

Henning Bohn

{"title":"Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging?","authors":"Henning Bohn","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00020-2","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00020-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Yes, subject to concerns about Medicare cost and potentially self-confirming skepticism. The U.S. social security system (broadly defined, including Medicare) faces significant financial problems as the result of an aging population. But demographic change is also likely to raise savings, increase wages, and reduce interest rates. Viewed in this context, the fiscal problems of retirement insurance seem over-rated. A more serious issue is the rapid growth of Medicare spending. Up to a point, a growing GDP-share of medical spending is an efficient response to an aging population. But Medicare growth might be excessive due to moral hazard problems. Except for this caveat, social security is almost certainly economically viable. To examine the political viability of social security, I focus on intertemporal cost-benefit tradeoffs in a median-voter setting. For a variety of assumptions, I find that social security will retain majority support. I also discuss the role of altruism, redistribution, and multi-dimensional voting and find that they provide additional voter support for social security.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"50 ","pages":"Pages 1-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00020-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81855312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 124