Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy最新文献

{"title":"Effects of pensions on savings: analysis with data from the health and retirement study","authors":"Alan L. Gustman ,&nbsp;Thomas L. Steinmeier","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00030-5","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00030-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines the composition and distribution of total wealth for a cohort of 51- to 61-year olds from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and the role of pensions in forming retirement wealth. Pension coverage is widespread, covering two-thirds of households and accounting for one-quarter of accumulated wealth. Social security benefits account for another quarter of total wealth.</p><p>As calculated from earnings records, the present discounted value of social security benefits is less than the present value of taxes paid. Earlier than many expected, social security is already a poor investment on average for this cohort on the verge of retirement. When pensions and social security are included, wealth accumulated by the HRS population to date is substantial. At their expected retirement date, using only the wealth accumulated by their mid-fifties, the HRS household with median replacement rate could finance a fixed, <em>nominal</em> two-thirds joint and survivor annuity replacing 79 percent of last earnings, and a real annuity replacing 52 percent of last earnings. Replacement rates for median earners are higher. Additional savings made over the seven years remaining until retirement will raise those replacement rates by about a fifth. When measured against a standard of adequacy based on average yearly earnings over the worklife, with adjustments made for the absence of preretirement savings, children, taxes, work-related expenses and other factors, these replacement rates appear adequate.</p><p>Lifetime earnings are measured for each individual in the HRS from social security earnings records augmented by self-reported earnings histories. When pensions and social security are counted in total wealth, the ratio of wealth to lifetime earnings declines from very high levels in the bottom ten percent of the earnings distribution, remains at roughly 40 percent from the 25th through 95th percentile of the lifetime earnings distribution, and then falls to 32 percent for those in the top five percent of the earnings distribution.</p><p>This result is consistent with the predictions of a simple, stripped-down life-cycle model. Also consistent is a finding that the ratio of wealth to lifetime earnings is no higher for those with pensions than for those without pensions. However, heterogeneity is quite important. Real estate and business wealth are a larger share of total wealth for those without pensions, reflecting the importance of self-employment in wealth accumulation.</p><p>Multivariate regressions relating total wealth to pension coverage and pension value, which standardize for sources of heterogeneity, suggest that pensions cause very limited displacement of other wealth, if any. Pensions add to total wealth by at least half the value of the pension, and in most estimates by a good deal more.</p><p>These findings are not consistent with a simple life-cycle explanation for savings. They also raise questions about whether pensio","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"50 ","pages":"Pages 271-324"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00030-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87103337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money","authors":"Harald Uhlig","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00010-X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00010-X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 245-263"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00010-X","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91675262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends in velocity and policy expectations","authors":"Ellen R. McGrattan","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00012-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00012-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 305-316"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00012-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91675264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality","authors":"Ben S. Bernanke ,&nbsp;Ilian Mihov","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00007-X","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00007-X","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The propositions that monetary expansion lowers short-term nominal interest rates (the liquidity effect), and that monetary policy does not have long-run real effects (long-run neutrality), are widely accepted. Yet to date the empirical evidence for both is mixed. We reconsider both propositions simultaneously in a structural VAR context, using a model of the market for bank reserves due to Bernanke and Mihov (1998). We find little basis for rejecting either the liquidity effect or long-run neutrality. Our results are robust over the space of admissible model parameter values, and to the use of long-run rather than short-run identifying restrictions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 149-194"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00007-X","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77982764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stickiness: A comment","authors":"Bennett T. McCallum","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00014-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00014-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 357-363"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00014-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85191857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money","authors":"Jon Faust","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00009-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00009-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a new way to assess robustness of claims from identified VAR work. All possible identifications are checked for the one that is worst for the claim, subject to the restriction that the VAR produce <em>reasonable</em> impulse responses to shocks. The parameter on which the claim is based need not be identified; thus, one can assess claims in large models using minimal restrictions. The technique reveals only weak support for the claim that monetary policy shocks contribute a small portion of the forecast error variance of post-war U.S. output in standard 6-variable and 13-variable models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 207-244"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00009-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137398881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality: A comment","authors":"J. Gaĺı","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00008-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00008-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"17 1","pages":"195-206"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91217044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Some experiments in constructing a hybrid model for macroeconomic analysis","authors":"Warwick J. McKibbin,&nbsp;Adrian R. Pagan,&nbsp;John C. Robertson","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00005-6","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00005-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>VAR analysis is a widespread method of quantitatively analyzing macroeconomic issues. In this paper we examine the use of “hybrid” VAR models that retain the short-run features of a VAR but are designed to reproduce selected characteristics of calibrated models that are frequently used for the simulation of policy actions. The calibrated model we use is the McKibbin-Sachs Global (MSG2) model of the world economy. For permanent shocks we constrain the long-run responses in the hybrid model to match those from MSG2. For transitory shocks we match shorter-run cumulative responses. The estimated effects of a permanent US money-supply shock are broadly consistent with those of MSG2, but differ in some dimensions from those obtained from a standard recursive VAR.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 113-142"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00005-6","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89464963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends in velocity and policy expectations","authors":"David B. Gordon ,&nbsp;Eric M. Leeper,&nbsp;Tao Zha","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00011-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00011-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>U.S. velocity of base money exhibits three distinct trends since 1960. After rising steadily for 20 years, it flattens out in the 1980s and falls substantially in the 1990s. This paper explores whether the observed secular movements in velocity can be accounted for exclusively by endogenous responses to changing expectations about monetary and fiscal policy. We use a model that includes money, nominal bonds, and capital. The model maps policy expectations into portfolio decisions, making equilibrium velocity a function of expected future money-growth, tax rates, and government spending. When expectations are estimated using Bayesian updating, simulated velocity matches the trends in actual velocity surprisingly well.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 265-304"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00011-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91675263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stickiness","authors":"Christopher A. Sims","doi":"10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00013-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00013-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We discuss an array of models of dynamically optimizing representative firms and workers, with inertia and price-wage stickiness modeled in various ways. The degree of price and wage stickiness bears no necessary connection to the strength of real effects of monetary policy. Matching the combination of real and nominal inertia in responses to monetary policy found in the data requires a more complex model, with more sources of stickiness and inertia, than has been standard in the literature. The pervasiveness of sluggish cross-variable responses in the macro data, combined with the implausibility of many of the microeconomic stories underlying adjustment cost models, suggests that we look for a different approach to modeling the sources of inertia in both prices and real variables. One such approach, based on limited information-processing capacity, is sketched.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100218,"journal":{"name":"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy","volume":"49 ","pages":"Pages 317-356"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/S0167-2231(99)00013-5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91755021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}