Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics最新文献_第8页

Fiscal Sustainability Hypothesis Test in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Perspective 中欧和东欧财政可持续性假设检验:面板数据视角

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3781438

Benjamin Owusu

{"title":"Fiscal Sustainability Hypothesis Test in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Perspective","authors":"Benjamin Owusu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3781438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3781438","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper assesses the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) between 1997 and 2019. The study adopts very recent panel econometric techniques which accounts for issues of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence in the data generating process to examine the cointegration between government revenue and expenditures. Preliminary results show that revenues and expenditures do not have a long-run relationship and hence a rejection of the sustainability hypothesis. As a next step, we discriminate between structural and cyclical components of revenues and expenditures in order to place emphasis on the structural component. We argue that the structural component of fiscal variables represents the actual long term behaviour of the policymaker. Further results indicate that structural revenues and expenditures have a long-run relationship however with a slope coefficient less than unity which implies sustainability in the weaker sense. At that point, expenditures exceed revenues and if this continues for a long time the government may find it difficult to market its debts in the long run. This result suggests that the fiscal authorities in CEEC must therefore do more by taking long term actions to counteract the rising fiscal deficit problems.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"31 1","pages":"285 - 312"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79287011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial: Special Edition of the Central European Economic Journal to Mark the 70th Birthday of Prof. Tomasz Żylicz 社论:《中欧经济杂志》特别版纪念Tomasz教授70岁生日Żylicz

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0011

Mikołaj Czajkowski

引用次数: 0

What Determines the Success of an IPO? Analysis of IPO Underpricing on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 决定IPO成功的因素是什么?华沙证券交易所IPO抑价分析

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0001

P. Małachowski, Dominika Gadowska-dos Santos

引用次数: 2

Equilibrium and Convergence in Income Distribution: The Case of 28 European Countries in the Recent, Turbulent Past (1995–2019) 收入分配的均衡与趋同:欧洲28国近期动荡历史的案例(1995-2019)

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0007

Yanling Guo, Friedrich L. Sell

引用次数: 1

Disputes Over the Concept of Ecological Economics and Environmental Economics in the Light of the Works of Professor Tomasz Żylicz 从Tomasz教授的著作看生态经济学与环境经济学概念之争Żylicz

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0014

S. Czaja

{"title":"Disputes Over the Concept of Ecological Economics and Environmental Economics in the Light of the Works of Professor Tomasz Żylicz","authors":"S. Czaja","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The problem of the concept of ecological and environmental economics and the relationship between them is the vital research problem in modern economics. The presentation of disputes in this respect is the subject of the presented article. For obvious, substantive and non-substantive reasons, the scientific views of Professor Tomasz Żylicz will be the central axis. The purpose of the topic presented in this paper analysis is not to settle the controversy but to present the dispute using the views of some discussion participants, especially the comments formulated by Professor Tomasz Żylicz. The research method is based on a critical analysis of the literature and desktop research. Conclusion 1: The problem of understanding ecological and environmental economics is just one of the many important issues that can be found in the works of Professor Tomasz Żylicz. Conclusion 2: This problem is connected with very interesting theoretical, cognitive and terminological issues and practical issues related to the implemented environmental policies or sustainable development strategies at their various levels.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"19 1","pages":"201 - 211"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80642999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Sustainability disclosure and its impact on firm's value for Energy and Healthcare industry 能源和医疗保健行业可持续性信息披露及其对公司价值的影响

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0022

Dan T. Constantinescu

{"title":"Sustainability disclosure and its impact on firm's value for Energy and Healthcare industry","authors":"Dan T. Constantinescu","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between sustainability disclosure measured through the combined and individual environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores and the value of European companies from energy and health care industries. The reasons for this research are the increased awareness of sustainability disclosure, the inclusion of nonfinancial information in corporate reporting and possible added value to the company, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and its impact on the global economy. The sample consists of 305 observations for 61 European companies from different categories in the energy industry and 225 observations for 45 European companies in the health care industry. To apply the research model to the samples of companies set as panel data, two linear regressions were designed, each using a different dependent variable to increase the reliability of the outputs. The results indicate a negative and significant correlation between the environmental factor and firms’ value for the energy sector and no influence of the sustainability disclosure on the value of companies in the health care industry. The research contributes to the literature by addressing the impact of sustainability disclosure on the value of the European companies from sensitive industries, using both the combined and individual ESG scores to measure sustainability disclosure. Furthermore, the study encourages other academic research on this subject.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"166 1","pages":"313 - 329"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77293040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Value of Life Year and Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: The Case of Poland 生命年价值与成本效益阈值:波兰案例

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0019

O. Markiewicz

{"title":"Value of Life Year and Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: The Case of Poland","authors":"O. Markiewicz","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Objective The objective of this article is to examine how people value two different attributes of Value of Life Year (VOLY): life expectancy and the quality of life. The results of the first VOLY estimations conducted in Poland are discussed and compared with Polish cost-effectiveness thresholds for medical treatments in the period 2008–2020. Methodology The Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) method was used to value two attributes of VOLY: increase in life expectancy and improvement in the quality of life. Main findings The VOLY research was conducted in two populations: general and dialysis. Depending on their current health status, people value increased life expectancy and improvement in health quality differently. In light of these results, the VOLY should be differentiated. Also in the Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) indicator, the weights of the attributes of length and quality of life should be varied according to different states of health. A uniform cost-effectiveness threshold is not justified from the perspective of stated preferences. Cost-effectiveness thresholds based on demand-side values should be differentiated. Current Polish cost-effectiveness thresholds are overestimated compared to valuations based on stated preferences. Contributions The article presents the first estimations of two attributes of VOLY: life expectancy and the quality of life, carried out in Poland.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"21 1","pages":"256 - 268"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81845732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Nvidia's Stock Returns Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques for Time Series Forecasting Problem Nvidia的股票收益预测使用机器学习技术解决时间序列预测问题

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0004

M. Chlebus, Michał Dyczko, M. Woźniak

{"title":"Nvidia's Stock Returns Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques for Time Series Forecasting Problem","authors":"M. Chlebus, Michał Dyczko, M. Woźniak","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Statistical learning models have profoundly changed the rules of trading on the stock exchange. Quantitative analysts try to utilise them predict potential profits and risks in a better manner. However, the available studies are mostly focused on testing the increasingly complex machine learning models on a selected sample of stocks, indexes etc. without a thorough understanding and consideration of their economic environment. Therefore, the goal of the article is to create an effective forecasting machine learning model of daily stock returns for a preselected company characterised by a wide portfolio of strategic branches influencing its valuation. We use Nvidia Corporation stock covering the period from 07/2012 to 12/2018 and apply various econometric and machine learning models, considering a diverse group of exogenous features, to analyse the research problem. The results suggest that it is possible to develop predictive machine learning models of Nvidia stock returns (based on many independent environmental variables) which outperform both simple naïve and econometric models. Our contribution to literature is twofold. First, we provide an added value to the strand of literature on the choice of model class to the stock returns prediction problem. Second, our study contributes to the thread of selecting exogenous variables and the need for their stationarity in the case of time series models.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"3 1","pages":"44 - 62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76336914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Modelling cross-sectional tabular data using convolutional neural networks: Prediction of corporate bankruptcy in Poland 使用卷积神经网络建模横截面表格数据:波兰公司破产预测

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0024

Aneta Dzik-Walczak, Maciej Odziemczyk

{"title":"Modelling cross-sectional tabular data using convolutional neural networks: Prediction of corporate bankruptcy in Poland","authors":"Aneta Dzik-Walczak, Maciej Odziemczyk","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper deals with the topic of modelling the probability of bankruptcy of Polish enterprises using convolutional neural networks. Convolutional networks take images as input, so it was thus necessary to apply the method of converting the observation vector to a matrix. Benchmarks for convolutional networks were logit models, random forests, XGBoost, and dense neural networks. Hyperparameters and model architecture were selected based on a random search and analysis of learning curves and experiments in folded, stratified cross-validation. In addition, the sensitivity of the results to data preprocessing was investigated. It was found that convolutional neural networks can be used to analyze cross-sectional tabular data, especially for the problem of modelling the probability of corporate bankruptcy. In order to achieve good results with models based on parameters updated by a gradient (neural networks and logit), it is necessary to use appropriate preprocessing techniques. Models based on decision trees have been shown to be insensitive to the data transformations used.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"60 1","pages":"352 - 377"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84105102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic Dynamic Modelling of Climate Policy in Poland 波兰气候政策的经济动态模型

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Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2021-0018

Olga Kiuila, Emilia Lewczuk

{"title":"Economic Dynamic Modelling of Climate Policy in Poland","authors":"Olga Kiuila, Emilia Lewczuk","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Poland is responsible for 9% of CO2 emission in the European Union (EU), making it the fifth biggest emitter in the region. The energy sector is dominated by electricity produced from coal (around 70%). The country currently uses massive subsidies to boost the coal sector. We propose a dynamic intertemporal hybrid general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of sector regulations and new policy targets within environmental taxation scenarios, by accounting for a complex set of linkages between the energy sector and other components of the economy. Our simulation results suggest that positive economic growth is possible with a realistic energy mix, but it will not offer considerable emission reduction, as required by the European Commission. In the short-time horizon, the best choice is renewable energy sources indicated by less capital-intensive technologies (such as biomass). In the long-time horizon, more capital-intensive technologies (such as wind turbines) will be a better choice for economic growth. Carbon tax plays a crucial role in optimal energy mix targets, since its elimination ceteris paribus implies negative economic growth.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"115 25 1","pages":"246 - 255"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84215501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0