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The Nexus between Federal Revenue and Spending in Canada: A Time-Frequency Perspective 加拿大联邦收入和支出之间的关系:一个时间-频率的视角
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0021
Yu Wang, William X. Wei
{"title":"The Nexus between Federal Revenue and Spending in Canada: A Time-Frequency Perspective","authors":"Yu Wang, William X. Wei","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The theoretical literature on the revenue-spending nexus suggests four possible relationships. They are tax-and-spend, negative tax-and-spend, spend-and-tax, and fiscal synchronization. Despite their homogenous research design, the empirical studies of Canada have provided mixed and inconclusive results. This study re-examines the topic from a time-frequency perspective. Specifically, it applies continuous wavelet analysis to the period 1867–2017 to delineate a complete picture of the revenue-spending nexus in Canada. Although results show the existence of all relationships suggested by theory at different time-frequency combinations, the spend-and-tax pattern is the most striking one and dominates the nexus in the long run. Theoretical, methodological, and policy-wise implications of this study are discussed at the end.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"5 1","pages":"113 - 123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73129399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Frontmatter 头版头条
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-frontmatter1
{"title":"Frontmatter","authors":"","doi":"10.1515/spp-2023-frontmatter1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2023-frontmatter1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134995981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conscription Reloaded? The Debate About Compulsory Service in Germany in 2022 and the Peoples’ Attitudes Towards It 征兵重载?2022年德国义务兵役制之争及民众态度
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-02-27 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0020
S. Jäckle
{"title":"Conscription Reloaded? The Debate About Compulsory Service in Germany in 2022 and the Peoples’ Attitudes Towards It","authors":"S. Jäckle","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In mid-2022, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke out in favour of introducing compulsory service in Germany. Against the backdrop of the Bundeswehr restructuring, necessitated by the war in Ukraine, and the worsening personnel shortage in the social sector and in nursing care, he revived a debate that had been recurring in Germany for decades. Based on an online survey of more than 7,300 people, this article examines how Germans feel about compulsory service and what factors are associated with this attitude. More than 63% of respondents are in favour of compulsory service. Psychological factors such as solidarity, sense of duty, extraversion and openness play just as important a role as political attitudes. People who position themselves more right-wing/nationalist/traditional view compulsory service more positively than liberal and left-wing respondents. In terms of voting intention, CDU/CSU and AfD supporters in particular support a general compulsory service, whereas it is less strongly supported by Greens, SPD and FDP supporters and even rejected by a majority of Left supporters. Another key factor for the evaluation of compulsory service is the respondents’ own experience with completed service. Respondents who have done military service view compulsory service more positively than those who have done community service. Those who have regular voluntary commitments also view compulsory service positively.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"47 1","pages":"65 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73898744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Social Constructionist Approach to Institutional Change: The Case of the Romanian Competition Council 制度变迁的社会建构主义方法:罗马尼亚竞争委员会的案例
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0015
D. Gavrilov
{"title":"A Social Constructionist Approach to Institutional Change: The Case of the Romanian Competition Council","authors":"D. Gavrilov","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Society has built institutions to face various problems in each area of our lives. Yet, institutions face considerable problems in fulfilling their objectives in a continuously changing world. With this in mind, the present study starts from the institutional resistance to change and searches for ways to improve efficiency and increase the positive impact on social welfare. For this, we start by looking at the competition authorities as new institutions and we study how they work and the role of communication, learning, and transparency in increasing institutional efficiency and receiving social legitimacy. The paper begins with a mixed theoretical approach to institutional change and focuses on the role of legitimacy in stimulating institutional change, and the type of institutional change for increasing efficiency. The research ends with the Romanian case study which shows the necessary aspects for making the institutional change real.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"19 1","pages":"45 - 63"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74601114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy Narrative: An Empirical Analysis 中国债务陷阱外交叙事的实证分析
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-02-23 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0017
Kerry Liu
{"title":"The Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy Narrative: An Empirical Analysis","authors":"Kerry Liu","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract China’s debt trap diplomacy has been debated among academia, think tanks, and the policymaking community. Unlike previous research, which mainly focuses on China’s lending practice and strategic intentions, this study looks at the measurement of this narrative and its relations with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China threat narratives. In particular, based on Google Trends search results from 1 February 2018 to 7 November 2021, this study creatively created weekly time series data to measure the narratives. Based on an autoregressive distributed lag model, this study finds that the BRI narrative and the China threat narrative make significant contributions to the debt trap diplomacy narrative. Results based on sub-datasets show that these significant relations are mainly driven by the English-speaking Indian public and that these relations are insignificant in the United States. This study contributes to the literature on China’s debt trap diplomacy by bringing solid empirical evidence and to academia as well in methods by presenting a (still) new quantitative approach to international relations.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"49 1","pages":"19 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76447423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tweedie Regression Analysis of Determinants of Birth Weight in Navrongo 纳夫龙戈地区出生体重决定因素的Tweedie回归分析
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0008
Emmanuel N-yambi Tegee, Edward Akurugu, Suleman Nasiru
{"title":"Tweedie Regression Analysis of Determinants of Birth Weight in Navrongo","authors":"Emmanuel N-yambi Tegee, Edward Akurugu, Suleman Nasiru","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The study modelled and investigated the determinants of infant birth weight by considering maternal and infant factors as predictors. Monthly data spanning for a period of 37 months were obtained from the Navrongo Health Research Centre of the Navrongo Municipality of the Upper East region of Ghana. In modelling the birth weight of infants, the Tweedie regression model and its counterparts of exponential families (Gaussian, Gamma and inverse Gaussian) of distribution were developed. The performances of these models were evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, the Tweedie regression model showed superiority in modelling the determinants of infant birth weight as compared to the other counterparts of the exponential families of distributions. The parameter estimates of the Tweedie regression model found child’s gender and maternal factors (religion, marital status and educational level) to contribute substantially to the birth weight of infants. Also, the study recommends that except for the status of antenatal care, emphasis must be placed on determining the reasons for the decrease in infant birth weight as a result of the maternal factors; parity, delivery type and the age of the mother.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"11 1","pages":"1 - 18"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76773088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data Mining in Social Sciences: A Decision Tree Application Using Social and Political Concepts 社会科学中的数据挖掘:使用社会和政治概念的决策树应用
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0004
E. Massou, G. Prodromitis, Stamos Papastamou
{"title":"Data Mining in Social Sciences: A Decision Tree Application Using Social and Political Concepts","authors":"E. Massou, G. Prodromitis, Stamos Papastamou","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we investigated the utility of data mining to classify individuals into predefined categories of a target variable, based on their social and political attitude. Data collected for a social psychology study conducted in Greece in 1994 were used for this purpose. We established the theoretical background of our analysis through explanatory factor analysis. We ran the decision tree algorithm CHAID in order to build a predictive model that classifies the study participants in terms of their attitude toward physical and symbolic violence. The CHAID algorithm provided a decision tree that was easily interpreted, and which revealed meaningful predictive patterns. CHAID algorithm showed satisfactory predictive ability and promising alternatives to social psychology data analysis. To the best of our knowledge, there is no other evidence in the literature that the decision tree algorithms can be used to identify latent variables.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"15 1","pages":"297 - 314"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73335407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
COVID-19 Conspiracy Beliefs and Vaccination Intentions among Social Media Users 社交媒体用户的COVID-19阴谋信念和疫苗接种意图
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0005
Kostas Gemenis
{"title":"COVID-19 Conspiracy Beliefs and Vaccination Intentions among Social Media Users","authors":"Kostas Gemenis","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract More than a year after the introduction of vaccines against COVID-19, inoculation remains inconsistent and variable across countries. In this paper, we introduce a multi-item scale of COVID-19 related misinformation, skepticism, and conspiracy theories and investigate the effects of these beliefs on vaccine hesitancy. We report findings from a survey in Greece where participants were recruited via paid advertising on Facebook and the study sample was adjusted for demographic variables using a nationally representative reference sample. We show that the endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs is the primary factor driving vaccine hesitancy, far exceeding the effect of all other demographic and attitudinal variables, including health status. Furthermore, a pre-registered randomized survey experiment showed that the effect cannot be attributed to respondents’ exposure to the COVID-19 conspiracy theory questions of the survey. The paper concludes by discussing potential public policy implications for combating misinformation and promoting health literacy among social media users.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"35 1","pages":"279 - 296"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83008956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Lower Inequality and Lower Development: A Contradiction Sensitivity Analysis of Jammu and Kashmir 低不平等与低发展:查谟和克什米尔的矛盾敏感性分析
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0001
Saeed Owais Mushtaq, Javaid iqbal khan, Mehak Majeed
{"title":"Lower Inequality and Lower Development: A Contradiction Sensitivity Analysis of Jammu and Kashmir","authors":"Saeed Owais Mushtaq, Javaid iqbal khan, Mehak Majeed","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The standard method of poverty estimation uses unadjusted per capita income or expenditure to calculate population below the poverty line. However, recent empirical advancements have validated this method to be essentially flawed in nature. It does not take into consideration nor allows for household composition and economies of scale. Empirical investigations have confirmed the facts that the measures of poverty and inequality are sensitive to various choices of equivalence scales. Therefore, standard measures provide mostly overestimated poverty and inequality estimates. Further, poverty measurement across groups or overtime is sensitive to different poverty lines and measures. Any alteration in these can reverse the ranking. The current research attempts to test adult equivalence and scale economies in Jammu and Kashmir region to validate whether poverty estimates are sensitive to these scales or not. It also employs stochastic dominance technique to check whether poverty reduction is robust through time over a wide range of poverty lines and measures. The paper does so by employing three waves of monthly consumption expenditure rounds conducted by National Sample Survey Organization. For sensitivity analysis, the paper estimates FGT, Gini and Atkinson indices. Despite being industrially backward and politically fragile, J&K has shown better economic indicators than most other Indian states. The findings of the current study validate lower poverty in the region and at the same time discover a growth in inequality over time. While a mixed result is derived for adult equivalence, the economies of scale highlight the fact that standard measures are overstated and welfare rank reversal ensues when household size and gender of household is tested for. Further, stochastic dominance results show that poverty reduction is only robust during 61st and 66th round, and not during 66th and 68th rounds.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"315 - 345"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84847028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The Aspects of International Communication: Strategic Partnership of Ukraine and Turkey 国际传播的各个方面:乌克兰和土耳其的战略伙伴关系
Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0006
A. Mishchenko, I. Shevel, D. Likarchuk, M. Shevchenko
{"title":"The Aspects of International Communication: Strategic Partnership of Ukraine and Turkey","authors":"A. Mishchenko, I. Shevel, D. Likarchuk, M. Shevchenko","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article aims to analyze the geopolitical, conflict-related, and strategic interests of Ukraine realized within the framework of the South vector of the state geopolitics through rational and pragmatic cooperation with the trans-regional leader of the region – Turkey. The study aims to identify priority areas of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the Black Sea region for the effective implementation of geostrategic interests of Ukraine and the regularity of development of political defense systems during crises and modern military-political conflicts. The interdisciplinary approach and methods of analytical and comparative analysis made it possible to study and examine the evolution of the value-ideological loads which dominate the implementation of Eastern or Western geopolitical vectors. The necessity to consider political, social, and conflict-related imbalances and integration constraints revealed the pragmatic direction of equidistant foreign policy implementation in a three-dimensional format. This format involves an alternative vector of bilateral cooperation with Turkey and a joint position, which will ensure accelerated development of Ukraine and help avoid pressure from the European Union and the Russian Federation. The defensive type of geostrategy serves as a common denominator in cooperation between countries, providing more substantial interaction at the level of experience exchange on military operations, military-political conflicts in Syria and the Eastern regions of Ukraine, solving problems with separatist regions, implementing programs for refugees and internally displaced persons, developing a parity promotion of integration of Turkey and Ukraine into the EU.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"13 1","pages":"347 - 368"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87307830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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