Statistics, politics, and policy最新文献

Population Age Structure and the Vulnerability of States to Coups d’État 人口年龄结构和国家对政变的脆弱性d ' État

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0029

Richard Cincotta

{"title":"Population Age Structure and the Vulnerability of States to Coups d’État","authors":"Richard Cincotta","doi":"10.1515/spp-2023-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2023-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This essay responds to recent critiques of the U.S. State Department’s inconsistent application of congressionally mandated foreign-aid restrictions following several successful coups d’état in countries receiving USAID foreign assistance. This demographic analysis, which conforms to an age-structural modeling and forecasting protocol that was originally developed for U.S. strategic intelligence efforts, finds: (1.) a disproportionately high level of coup vulnerability (the probability of experiencing a successful coup) among youthful countries (median age equal to or less than 25.5 years), particularly among states in the early-youthful segment of this phase (median age equal to or less than 20.5 years); and (2.) a dramatic one-time decline in coup vulnerability among all phases of the age-structural transition following the end of the Cold War. This essay’s two-decade forecast of an expected gradual decline in coups is consistent with the slow and halting pace of age-structural change that is currently projected by the 2022 revision of the UN Population Division’s medium scenario for countries along the equatorial midriff of Africa, and in parts of the Middle East and southcentral Asia. These findings support an alternative criticism – not of the U.S. State Department’s reluctance to restrict foreign assistance to coup perpetrators, but of currently mandated restrictions that neglect to exempt USAID programs known to advance the age-structural transition (i.e. those that extend girls’ educational attainment, improve access to family planning and other reproductive health services, or expand women’s autonomy and rights).","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"5 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136229281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Introducing a New Dataset: Age Representation in Parliaments on the Party-Level 介绍一个新的数据集:政党层面的议会年龄代表

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0014

Kira Renée Kurz, Felix Ettensperger

{"title":"Introducing a New Dataset: Age Representation in Parliaments on the Party-Level","authors":"Kira Renée Kurz, Felix Ettensperger","doi":"10.1515/spp-2023-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2023-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This research note highlights the underrepresentation of younger people in parliaments across the globe, which has been a persistent issue for decades. We introduce a novel open-access dataset containing information on mean and median age as well as the share of MPs in specific age brackets in party parliamentary groups in lower houses or single chambers of national parliaments. The dataset covers 163 cases from 30 countries and features variables that present these aforementioned shares in relation to the respective group’s presence in the voting-age population (Age Representation Index). Furthermore, the dataset includes the share of women within the party parliamentary groups as well as identifiers that enable matching the dataset with indicators from the Political Party Database (PPDB), the V-Party dataset, PartyFacts and the Manifesto Project Database. Our main finding underlines the importance of research focusing on party level factors influencing youth representation as there is not only variation between countries, but also within them on the party-level. Additionally, we show that most party parliamentary groups in which women are underrepresented also have low relative shares of young people, which is in line with theoretical arguments on party behavior.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":" 36","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135863380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Analysis of the Impact of Digitalization on the Quality and Availability of Public Services in Ukraine – A Comparative Approach with Insights from Estonia 分析数字化对乌克兰公共服务质量和可用性的影响-与爱沙尼亚见解的比较方法

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0012

Tetiana V. Kniazieva, Olenа O. Kazanska, Lyudmila A. Orochovska, Yana Yu. Tsymbalenko, Anna V. Dergach

{"title":"Analysis of the Impact of Digitalization on the Quality and Availability of Public Services in Ukraine – A Comparative Approach with Insights from Estonia","authors":"Tetiana V. Kniazieva, Olenа O. Kazanska, Lyudmila A. Orochovska, Yana Yu. Tsymbalenko, Anna V. Dergach","doi":"10.1515/spp-2023-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2023-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article provides an overview of the current state of digitization of public services in Ukraine, exploring its impact on service quality and availability. The rapid advancements in information and communication technology have created opportunities for streamlining bureaucratic processes and improving service delivery. The study aims to analyze the progress and potential of digitization in public services in Ukraine, comparing it with successful examples in Estonia. The research seeks to identify best practices and address existing gaps and challenges in digitalizing public services. The research utilizes various methods, including a comprehensive literature review, analysis of academic articles, government reports, and quantitative data from primary sources such as surveys and databases. A comparative analysis of Estonia’s digitalization efforts is conducted to gain insights into potential lessons and best practices. The findings show that digitization of public services in Ukraine has emerged in response to advancements in technology and citizens’ demand for user-friendly and accessible services. Initiatives like the Diia platform have positively impacted service quality and availability. However, Ukraine’s level of digitization still lags behind some European counterparts. The Ukrainian government’s commitment to digital transformation is evident through various initiatives and targets to improve the digitization rate of public services. Despite the progress made, ongoing efforts are needed to address challenges and invest in digital infrastructure. Prioritizing digital transformation can enhance service efficiency, transparency, and citizen engagement, ultimately improving the quality of life for Ukrainians and aligning with EU standards.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135110268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating Different Covariate Balancing Methods: A Monte Carlo Simulation 评价不同协变量平衡方法:蒙特卡罗模拟

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0019

Hideki Fukui

{"title":"Evaluating Different Covariate Balancing Methods: A Monte Carlo Simulation","authors":"Hideki Fukui","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate the effectiveness of five weighting and matching techniques, including propensity score matching (PSM), in improving covariate balance and reducing bias when estimating treatment effects in finite-sample situations through Monte Carlo simulations. King and Nielsen (2019. “Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching.” Political Analysis 27 (4): 435–54) argue that pruning observations based on PSM with 1-to-1 greedy matching can worsen rather than improve covariate balance and can increase the bias in the estimates of treatment effects. In our simulations, we observed this phenomenon not only in PSM with 1-to-1 greedy matching but also in other covariate balancing techniques that King and Nielsen (2019. “Why Propensity Scores Should Not Be Used for Matching.” Political Analysis 27 (4): 435–54) recommend as better matching methods, i.e. Mahalanobis distance matching (MDM) and coarsened exact matching (CEM). Regardless of the weighting/matching techniques and the data generation processes in this study, our findings indicate that matching and weighting under extreme caliper or cut-point settings does not improve covariate balance. In addition, once a substantially improved covariate balance is achieved in a given sample, the estimated bias tends to worsen slightly as the covariate balance continues to improve. Moreover, our simulation results suggest that OLS with proper covariates reduces selection bias as well as other weighting and matching methods. The results suggest that when analyzing observational data, it is important to avoid looking for a one-size-fits-all estimator and to identify the appropriate nonexperimental estimator carefully for the sample by thoroughly investigating the available data’s characteristics.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73675751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating the Economic Consequence of Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model 调查撒哈拉以南非洲地区恐怖主义的经济后果:来自动态面板模型的证据

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0014

C. Agu, Augustine Jideofor Mbah, C. S. Agu

{"title":"Investigating the Economic Consequence of Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model","authors":"C. Agu, Augustine Jideofor Mbah, C. S. Agu","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the economic consequence of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with a panel of 38 countries between 2010 and 2020. Specifically, the study examined the impact of terrorism on economic growth, international tourism demand, income inequality, unemployment rate, and inflation rate. The study employed the two-step system GMM and quantile regression for the estimation. The results show that terrorism has had a significant negative impact on economic growth in SSA. Similarly, the study results indicate that terrorism impacts negatively on international tourism demand, widens the income gap, and increases the rate of unemployment and inflation in SSA. Furthermore, the two governance institution indicators employed in the study (government effectiveness and control of corruption) shows a significant negative impact on economic growth in the zone, while credit to the private sector and human capital had performed abysmally in the zones’ growth trajectory. These findings were further supported by the quantile regression results. The study employed both system GMM model and quantile regression in the analysis. The use of these two different methods makes the results obtained to be robust and efficient for policy purpose, which no other author has done before now.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82919781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

NATO’s Expansion and Russia’s Aggressiveness: An Empirical Study from the Perspective of the U.S. Public 北约扩张与俄罗斯侵略:美国公众视角下的实证研究

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-06-26 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0003

Kerry Liu

{"title":"NATO’s Expansion and Russia’s Aggressiveness: An Empirical Study from the Perspective of the U.S. Public","authors":"Kerry Liu","doi":"10.1515/spp-2023-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2023-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Russia’s aggression on Ukraine has attracted worldwide attention. The relations between Russia’s aggression and NATO’s expansion are being debated with conflicting viewpoints. Based on weekly Google Trends data from 5 March 2017 to 13 February 2022, this study creatively creates a series of time series variables to measure the public agenda in the US. Based on time series modellings, this study finds that the U.S. public believes that there are bi-directional relations between NATO’s expansion and Russia’s aggressiveness. In particular, Russia’s aggressiveness is driven by both NATO’s expansion and Russia’s imperialism. NATO’s expansion is driven by Russia’s foreign policy, Russia’s aggressiveness, and Russia’s imperialism. These conclusions predicted the U.S. government’s policy towards this war. This study contributes to policymakers by providing solid empirical evidence on the U.S. public’s opinion on this important issue and to academia as well by presenting a (still) new quantitative method in international relations. By employing this method, we can leverage readily accessible high-frequency time series data to gain valuable insights into U.S. public opinion, potentially enabling people to predict U.S. foreign policies.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83941980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Frontmatter 头版头条

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-frontmatter2

引用次数: 0

Model-Based Small Area Estimation of Regional-Level Maternal Mortality Prevalence in Ghana 基于模型的加纳区域一级孕产妇死亡率流行率小区域估计

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0022

D. Jakperik, Queensley C. Chukwudum, Michael J. Adjabui

引用次数: 0

Analysis of the Number of Tests, the Positivity Rate and Their Dependency Structure During COVID-19 Pandemic COVID-19大流行期间检测次数、阳性率及其依赖结构分析

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2023-0002

Babak Jamshidi, Hakim Bekrizadeh, Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran, Mansour Rezaei

{"title":"Analysis of the Number of Tests, the Positivity Rate and Their Dependency Structure During COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Babak Jamshidi, Hakim Bekrizadeh, Shahriar Jamshidi Zargaran, Mansour Rezaei","doi":"10.1515/spp-2023-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2023-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Recent advances in medical instruments, information technology, and unprecedented data sharing allowed scientists to investigate, trace, and monitor the COVID-19 pandemic faster than any previous outbreak. This extraordinary speed makes COVID-19 a medical revolution that causes some unprecedented analyses, discussions, and models. Modeling the dependence between the number of tests and the positivity rate is one of these new issues. Using four classes of copulas (Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, and FGM), this study is the first attempt tom model the dependency. The estimation of the parameters of the copulas is obtained using the maximum likelihood method. To evaluate the goodness of fit of the copulas, we calculate AIC. The computations are conducted on Matlab R2015b, R 4.0.3, Maple 2018a, and EasyFit 5.6. Findings indicate that at the beginning of a typical epidemic, the number of tests is relatively low and the proportion of positivity is high. As time passes, the number of tests increases, and the positivity rate decreases. The epidemic peaks are occasions that violate the stated general rule –due to the early growth of the number of tests. Also, during both peak and non-peak times, the rising number of tests is accompanied by decreasing the positivity rate. We find that the proportion of positivity is more proportional than the number of tests to the number of infected cases. Therefore, the changes in the positivity rate can be considered a representative of the level of the spreading. Approaching zero positivity rate is a good criterion to scale the success of a healthcare system in fighting against an epidemic. Accordingly, the number and accuracy of tests can play a vital role in the quality level of epidemic data.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135176387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Always a Bridesmaid: A Machine Learning Approach to Minor Party Identity in Multi-Party Systems 永远是伴娘:多党系统中小党身份的机器学习方法

Statistics, politics, and policy Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1515/spp-2022-0009

Laura French Bourgeois, Allison Harell, Laura B. Stephenson, Philippe Guay, Martin Lysy

{"title":"Always a Bridesmaid: A Machine Learning Approach to Minor Party Identity in Multi-Party Systems","authors":"Laura French Bourgeois, Allison Harell, Laura B. Stephenson, Philippe Guay, Martin Lysy","doi":"10.1515/spp-2022-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2022-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In multiparty systems, maintaining a distinct and positive partisan identity may be more difficult for those who identify with minor parties, because such parties lack the rich history of success that could reinforce a positive social standing in the political realm. Yet, we know little about the unique nature of minor partisan identities because partisanship tends to be most prominent in single-member plurality systems that tend toward two dominant parties, such as the United States. Canada provides a fascinating case of a single-member plurality electoral system that has consistently led to a multiparty system, ideal for studying minor party identity. We use large datasets of public opinion data, collected in 2019 and 2021 in Canada, to test a Lasso regression, a machine learning technique, to identify the factors that are the most important to predict whether partisans of minor political parties will seek in-group distinctiveness, meaning that they seek a different and positive political identity from the major political parties they are in competition with, or take part in out-group favouritism, meaning that they seek to become closer major political parties. We find that party rating is the most important predictor. The more partisans of the minor party rate their own party favourably, the more they take part in distinctiveness. We also find that the more minor party partisans perceive the major party as favourable, the more favouritism they will show towards the major party.","PeriodicalId":90055,"journal":{"name":"Statistics, politics, and policy","volume":"35 1","pages":"91 - 112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78389626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0