Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)最新文献

{"title":"On Ensuring the Comparability of Statistical Indicators when Changing State Borders","authors":"V. Bessonov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-84-95","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-84-95","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses the author's proposals for addressing the problem of achieving the comparability of Russian socio-economic indicators related to the change in the borders of the state as a result of the special military operation. The experience of ensuring indicators comparability when changing state borders, namely during the unification of Germany in 1990 and reunification with Crimea in 2014, is considered. It is shown that, due to the long duration of the process of changing borders and the uncertainty of its results, the specificity of the discussed Russian episode of changing state borders makes it unique, i. e., having no direct analogues in recent decades for developed countries. The article discusses requirements for data comparability, which are imposed by the tasks for which they are used. The need to find such a solution to the problem, which would allow analyzing the dynamics of indicators for both a comparable and entire territories, is explained. The author proposes a simple and technologically advanced approach to solving the problem of comparability. Features of its solution for indicators of different types, different levels of aggregation, and with different time steps are considered. Recommendations for organizing the work related to ensuring the comparability of statistical indicators when changing state borders are proposed.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75478033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Features of Applying Statistical Analysis in Modern Marketing","authors":"R. A. Khamzin, S. Brovchak, O. Firsanova, V. V. Kulebyakin","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-33-42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-33-42","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the features of applying statistical analysis in marketing during digital transformation. After explaining the relevance of the study, the authors formulate the challenges of using statistical analysis in marketing, reveal the study goals, objectives, and tools, and provide an overview of the content of statistical analysis (at the company level). In modern Internet marketing, a large number of statistical indicators are used, such as CPC (cost per click), CTR (advertisement click-through rate), CPA (advertising cost), conversion rate, lead cost, and many others. However, according to the authors, the indicators used in most companies are not comprehensive enough. The paper notes that statistical analysis of the digital marketing domain uses several digital products, such as Google Analytics, Adobe Analytics, Mixpanel, Salesforce Analytics Cloud, and Looker. The more specific the information required for statistical analysis, the more the company strives to create its digital product for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting the most important data for marketing about hidden patterns in customer behavior, in their consumer journey, motives, and incentives for their choice. The uniqueness of the artificial intelligence algorithms used for this is ensured by the methods of classification, clustering, regression, and association analysis that are used in machine learning and statistical analysis for the automatic processing and analysis of large amounts of data. The article focuses on the specific results of improving marketing activities based on the development of statistical analysis amidst digital transformation arising from the introduction of digital technologies, and the development of digital products that ultimately give competitive advantages in a particular area of business.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78992626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Economy in 2020–2022: Transition to a New Development Model","authors":"L. Strizhkova, G. Kuranov, L. I. Tishina, A. Kuranov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-5-21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-5-21","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the study results on the changes in the Russian economy related to effects of the specific circumstances of 2020–2022. The authors support the conclusion about the ongoing shift in the economic development model and make several proposals for domestic economic policy. The authors note that the strong negative influence of external factors can, under certain conditions (on the principle of «challenge-and-response» or «shock-and-reaction»), create momentum towards the accelerated structural transformation of the economy and transition to a new national economic cycle adapted to current trends in scientific and technological development.The paper analyses indicators of dynamics and structural changes in the final use of gross domestic product (GDP), in production, and in investment activity. The article describes the differences in the development trends for three major sectors of the economy in which its industries were incorporated: the raw materials and processing sector, the infrastructure sector, and the innovation sector, and also for the aggregate «other industries» (tabular material contains detailed analytical data on enlarged categories).The article presents the results of GDP dynamics factor analysis based on two approaches – using the intersectoral model and the GDP dynamics macroeconomic function. Based on the first approach, the authors obtained the overall estimates of the impact of changes in export volumes and domestic final demand on GDP in 2022, as well as the decrease in the import intensity of production and other estimates. Based on the second approach, the authors obtained the estimate of the potential GDP rate, its gap with the actual rate, and the influence of the main factors on economic dynamics. The features of the new development model (transition to development based mainly on internal sources of funds, resources, etc.) are indicated. The paper outlines authors' views on the conditions that can meet the challenges of developing the country as part of the new development model. The issues of making the investment forecasts and providing investment process with the financial resources are considered. According to the authors, further development of the systematic approach to managerial decision-making and transition to ensuring better coherence between vital economic development directions makes it possible to achieve economic and social objectives more effectively.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79772474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting Inflation in Russia Using a TVP Model with Bayesian Shrinkage","authors":"A. Polbin, A. Shumilov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-22-32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-4-22-32","url":null,"abstract":"The paper emphasizes the relevance of improving methodological tools for macroeconomic forecasting. In particular, it is pointed out, that models with a large number of explanatory variables on relatively short samples can often overfit in-sample and, thus, forecast poorly. The article reviews studies on forecasting inflation in Russia and explains the applicability of the model with Bayesian shrinkage of time-varying parameters based on hierarchical normal-gamma prior. Models of this type allow for possible nonlinearities in relationships between regressors and inflation and, at the same time, can deal with the problem of overfitting.The choice of a system of statistical indicators used to forecast monthly inflation in Russia during the period 2011–2022 is substantiated. It is shown that at short forecast horizons (of one to three months) Bayesian normal-gamma shrinkage TVP model with a large set of inflation predictors outperforms in forecasting accuracy, measured by mean absolute and squared errors, its linear counterpart, linear and Bayesian autoregression models without predictors, as well as naive models (based on random walk). At the horizon of six months, the autoregression model with Bayesian shrinkage exhibits the best forecast performance. As the forecast horizon rises (up to one year), statistical differences in the quality of forecasts of competing models of Russian inflation decrease.The developed method can be used by the Bank of Russia and executive authorities for rapid assessment of inflation forecasts until the end of the year in order to evaluate risks of inflation deviation from the target level and elaborate preventive economic policy measures.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83686749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian Science in Surmounting Sanctions","authors":"N. Pashinceva","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-80-91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-80-91","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, building on the data of official Russian statistics, the author analyzes the development of the organization of scientific activity over the last decade, including compared to 2014 – the initial period of anti-Russia sanctions and compared to 2018 – the year before theCOVID-19 pandemic. The paper describes sanctions imposed by a number of unfriendly countries, namely, the refusal to cooperate inmany spheres, including the economy, science, and education. The article considers initial measures to neutralize sanctions. In particular, Russia proposed to create educational «hubs» in the Asia-Pacific region based on the association of the leading universities and scientific institutions for the training of a skilled workforce to implement priority directions of the development of the economy in Russia and the countries of South-East Asia, taking into account their relevance in the real economy sector. The paper analyses issues of integration of science, higher education, and industry, which contributes to the increase of efficiency and effectiveness of research, quality of education, and training of scientific and technical personnel, as well as the inflow of youth in the research and development sphere.The author outlines the directions for the development of the global information/digital society concerning the demand for new digital technologies, which, year after year, are being revised, updated, and improved. High emphasis is placed on the processes of digital transformation, which have a widespread influence on scientific activities, so much so that 2022–2031 were proclaimed as the Decade of Science and Technology. For instance, by 2024, as part of this program, a series of works will be performed covering the transfer of all state information systems to a unified digital GosTech platform, which in the current complicated conditions will better the quality of public services provided to businesses and citizens.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90713991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Professional and Social Statuses as Predictors of Alcohol Consumption by Working Russians","authors":"N. A. Eltsov, N. Khorkina","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-92-108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-92-108","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyses alcohol consumption patterns among working residents of Russia, depending on their professional and social statuses, using statistical methods. The study is based on data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of the National Research University Higher School of Economics for the period of 2013–2019. Sampling included working women aged 16 to 55 and men aged 16 to 60.The introductory part of the article covers the main trends in alcohol consumption among working Russians with different professional and social statuses. The main part of the article presents the results of an empirical study of the statistical relationship between the characteristics of an employee's professional and social statuses and indicators characterizing the probability and volume of consumption of specific alcoholic beverages (beer, wine, vodka, etc.) and alcohol in general. An econometric analysis of the relationships was carried out based on a random effect panel logistic model and an individual random effect Tobin model. Statistical estimates were made separately for men and women. The regression analysis helped the authors find an increase in the probability of consuming alcohol in general, as well as wine and spirits (cognac, whiskey, liqueurs) for workers with the highest professional status (legislators; high-ranking officials; senior and mid-level executives), as well as women with mid-level qualifications compared to unskilled workers. At the same time, the authors recognized a downward trend in the probability of vodka consumption for the respondents of both gender groups with the growth of their professional status (most pronounced for women). In addition, with an increase in the professional status of an individual, there was a trend towards a decrease in the volume of alcohol consumption in general and by specific beverages except for wine. The volume of wine consumption by men from the categories of \"clerks and workers in trade and services\" and \"mid-level professionals; officials\" exceeded the value of the corresponding indicator for unskilled workers. An analysis of the statistical relationship between the social status of working Russians and their predisposition to consume alcoholic beverages revealed an increase in the probability of consumption of selected alcoholic beverages among representatives of both gender groups and the probability of alcohol consumption in general (among men) with an increase in the social status of an individual with more moderate consumption compared to workers with lower social status (for men).According to the authors, the results of this study can be relevant to the elaboration of specific alcohol policy measures aimed at reducing alcohol consumption among the employed population of our country.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72752063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On International Comparison of National Income Within the CMEA Framework","authors":"Y. Ivanov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-109-112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-109-112","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers the results and methods of international comparisons of national income carried out in the CMEA from 1959 to1988. It is noted that the results of these comparisons were used for solving problems related to the organization of economic cooperation within the CMEA. This goal was consistent with the methodology of bilateral comparisons of the national income of the USSR with each other CMEA countries. The final results for each bilateral comparison were computed using the Fisher index formula. This procedure did not secure the transitivity of the results. Considerable attention was paid to selecting commodity representatives with prices for calculating purchasing power parities (PPPs). For this purpose, meetings of experts, who were well-versed in the technical characteristics of the selected commodity representatives, were convened: in some cases, commodity prices were adjusted to ensure their comparability. The biggest challenges emerged while securing price comparability for the following commodity representatives: machinery, equipment, and construction projects.The paper presents characteristics of GDP based on PPP comparison methodology carried out within the UN ICP framework. It ensured the comparison of UN ICP and the CMEA comparison methods. In particular, it is noted that GDP comparisons were carried out using multilateral methods of comparison, securing the transitivity of the computed indices. In addition to national income indicators of industrial and agricultural output, capital investments and consumption of the population were compared. The article contains two tables with results of comparisons of national income of the CMEA countries, which were initially classified.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81859217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What Do the Dynamics of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the «Large Economies» Have in Common?","authors":"V. Chetverikov, O. Pugacheva, T. Vorontsova","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-64-79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-64-79","url":null,"abstract":"The authors analyze the dynamics of infected and deceased from the coronavirus pandemic over 148 weeks in the «large economies» (24 countries). According to the authors, a large economy is a country that, at least within one year from 1980 to 2019, produced more than 1% of the global GDP. Although the organization of the health care system in these countries is different, only the general requirements of WHO could provide information on the spread of the pandemic in comparable formats. The change from daily data on the number of infected and deceased to weekly data on these indicators (per 1 million persons of the country's population) made it possible, firstly, to exclude insignificant daily fluctuations of these indicators and, secondly, to obtain information in comparable values for countries with widely differing populations.The paper demonstrates that the frequently used comparison of countries by such integral indicators as the number of infected and deceased at a particular time is not very informative. It is due to the fact that, over time, country-specific circumstances change dramatically. Nevertheless, it was precisely the introduction for analytical purposes of such characteristics as weekly increment peaks of infected people and weekly increment peaks of deceased that made it possible to identify the four features. First, the number of those peaks is small for all countries: from 5 to 9 over 148 weeks. Second, these peaks cover between 70 and 90 percent of the totals of the integral number of infected and deceased in a given country. Third, most peaks of the infected are accompanied by peaks of the deceased with some delay: from zero to six weeks, but in most cases by two weeks, which is consistent with clinical observations. Fourth, the peaks of infected people in all 24 countries exhibit the statistical property of being quasi-synchronous (the so-called property of the maximums of these peaks to fall within predetermined intervals of weeks with probabilities that are the same for all countries). This fact is proved using the mathematical homogeneity criterion χ2.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"157 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79951001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a Methodology for Assessment and Analysis of the Export Conjuncture of Russian Manufacturing Enterprises","authors":"I. Lola","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-5-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-5-19","url":null,"abstract":"The article explains the current methodological approaches to the analysis of the export conjuncture (on the example of Russian ma nufacturing enterprises), including a new methodology for its integral assessment. This assessment is made by modeling the global demand for domestic products and their price competitiveness in the international market.The importance of the analysis of the current phase of Russia's economic development is emphasized, when a structural transformation of industrial and export policy is taking place and a new contour of foreign economic activity is being formed. This necessitates the improvement of methods for export climate assessment. The author underlines the relevance of using not only qualitative and quantitative indicators, but also their hybrid modifications in the economic and statistical analysis of export trends. The article presents a new hybrid measure – the Export Climate Index (ECI), which aggregates the indicators of demand for domestic manufactured goods and their price competitiveness in the international market. The methodology for its calculation is based on theoretical developments, adapted to the specifics of the Russian economy, and the best world practices for measuring and analyzing export trends.The quantified results of business and consumer surveys in the countries that are Russia's main trading partners, as well as the real effective exchange rate of the ruble according to the Bank of Russia, are used for empirical calculations.The calculations results revealed a significant leading correlation between the ECI dynamics and the dynamics of the referent – the indicator of export of goods in value terms, confirming the possibility of using the new index not only for an integral assessment of the export climate in Russia, but also as a short-term predictor that effectively supplements statistical measures.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91168345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On Improving the System of Statistical Indicators of the Secure Use of Digital Technologies","authors":"M. Karyshev","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-20-32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-3-20-32","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents some results of the study of problems of improving the secure use of digital technologies in the new stage of the development of information and communication technologies (ICT). The relevance is explained by the fact that the use of ICT in the current conditions of the development of the information society and the digital transformation of the economy not only leads to the known positive socio-economic effects but also presupposes the inevitable negative impacts. The objective of protecting the interests of an individual, society, and the state from internal and external information threats is related to the concept of information security. The expansion of its boundaries – from low-level technical measures for the protection of information systems (computer security and cybersecurity) to the strategic management of economic production in this context – has created a new relevant category, digital security, and dictates the expediency of combining these terms into a general concept of «secure use of digital technologies».The author analyzed the existing methodological approaches to the statistical study of the problems under consideration and developed several proposals for improving the corresponding system of statistical indicators. Methods of descriptive statistics, correlation-regression analysis, and machine learning methods (in particular, various variants of classification algorithms based on decision trees) were used in the analysis to achieve this goal.While studying information and methodological sources which are indirectly related to statistical resources (a well-known web platform that brings together researchers in the field of data science and machine learning, Kaggle, was examined), the author analyzed the results of a thematic survey of companies. As a result of modeling the influence of the «secure use of digital technologies» factor on the efficiency of economic activity, it was established that its variation by about a third determines the level of economic efficiency of the company within the presented population. The application of machine learning techniques has resulted in acceptable quality predictive models for classifying companies by economic activity in the same factor context.From a practical point of view, according to the author, the application of the proposed approach to the formation of a system of statistical indicators shall be beneficial for managing processes that ensure the security of the use of digital technologies at the enterprise, region, and country level as a whole.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82228107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}