Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)最新文献

Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm COVID-19风暴中心的生育力

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.3386/w31070

Daniel Dench, Wenhui Li, Theodore Joyce, H. Minkoff, G. V. Van Wye

引用次数: 0

Societal Disruptions and Child Mental Health: Evidence from ADHD Diagnosis During the Covid-19 Pandemic 社会混乱和儿童心理健康:来自Covid-19大流行期间ADHD诊断的证据

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.21033/wp-2023-04

Seth Freedman, Kelli Marquardt, Dario Salcedo, Coady Wing

引用次数: 0

Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic 2019冠状病毒病大流行期间共和党人和民主党人的超额死亡率

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w30512

J. Wallace, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Jason C. Schwartz

{"title":"Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"J. Wallace, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Jason C. Schwartz","doi":"10.3386/w30512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w30512","url":null,"abstract":"Political affiliation has emerged as a potential risk factor for COVID-19, amid evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democrat-leaning counties and evidence of a link between political party affiliation and vaccination views. This study constructs an individual-level dataset with political affiliation and excess death rates during the COVID-19 pandemic via a linkage of 2017 voter registration in Ohio and Florida to mortality data from 2018 to 2021. We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post-vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78816405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15

If You Build it, Will They Vaccinate? The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine Sites on Vaccination Rates and Outcomes 如果你建立了它，他们会接种疫苗吗?COVID-19疫苗站点对疫苗接种率和结果的影响

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w30429

J. Brownstein, J. Cantor, B. Rader, K. Simon, C. Whaley

{"title":"If You Build it, Will They Vaccinate? The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine Sites on Vaccination Rates and Outcomes","authors":"J. Brownstein, J. Cantor, B. Rader, K. Simon, C. Whaley","doi":"10.3386/w30429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w30429","url":null,"abstract":"Safe and effective vaccines have vastly reduced the lethality of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide, but disparities exist in vaccine take-up. Although the out-of-pocket price is set to zero in the U.S., time (information gathering, signing up, transportation and waiting) and misinformation costs still apply. To understand the extent to which geographic access impacts COVID-19 vaccination take-up rates and COVID-19 health outcomes, we leverage exogenous, pre-existing variation in locations of retail pharmacies participating the U.S. federal government's vaccine distribution program through which over 40% of US vaccine doses were administered. We use unique data on nearly all COVID-19 vaccine administrations in 2021. We find that the presence of a participating retail pharmacy vaccination site in a county leads to an approximately 26% increase in the per-capita number of doses administered, possibly indicating that proximity and familiarity play a substantial role in vaccine take-up decisions. Increases in county-level per capita participating retail pharmacies lead to an increase in COVID-19 vaccination rates and a decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, with substantial heterogeneity based on county rurality, political leanings, income, and race composition. The relationship we estimate suggests that averting one COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and death requires approximately 25, 200, and 1,500 county-level vaccine total doses, respectively. These results imply a 9,500% to 22,500% economic return on the full costs of COVID-19 vaccination. Overall, our findings add to understanding vaccine take-up decisions for the design of COVID era and other public health interventions.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86017683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Causal Inference During a Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina 大流行期间的因果推断:在阿根廷，雾化布洛芬作为一种未经证实的COVID-19治疗方法的有效性证据

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2022-05-01 DOI: 10.3386/w30084

Sebastian Calonico, R. Tella, J. L. del Valle

{"title":"Causal Inference During a Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina","authors":"Sebastian Calonico, R. Tella, J. L. del Valle","doi":"10.3386/w30084","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w30084","url":null,"abstract":"Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its effectiveness and without regulatory approval. We study data on 5,146 patients hospitalized in 11 health centers spread over 4 provinces, of which a total of 1,019 (19.8%) received the treatment. We find a large, negative and statistically significant correlation between NaIHS treatment and mortality using inverse probability weighting estimators. We consider several threats to identification, including the selection of \"low\" risks into NaIHS, spillovers affecting patients in the control group, and differences in the quality of care in centers that use NaIHS. While the negative correlation appears to be, broadly, robust, our results are best interpreted as emphasizing the benefits of running a randomized controlled trial and the challenges of incorporating information produced in other, less rigorous circumstances.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87841516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination 保持社会距离和接种疫苗的简单模型

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29463

Christopher Avery

引用次数: 7

Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space COVID-19期间的宏观审慎政策:政策空间的作用

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29346

Katharina Bergant, Kristin Forbes

{"title":"Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space","authors":"Katharina Bergant, Kristin Forbes","doi":"10.3386/w29346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29346","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to examine how macroprudential frameworks developed over the past decade performed during a period of heightened financial and economic stress. It discusses a new measure of the macroprudential stance that better captures the intensity of different policies across countries and time. Then it shows that macroprudential policy has been used countercyclically—with stances tightened during the 2010’s and eased in response to COVID-19 by more than previous risk-off periods. Countries that tightened macroprudential policy more aggressively before COVID, as well as those that eased more during the pandemic, experienced less financial and economic stress. Countries’ ability to use macroprudential policy, however, was significantly constrained by the extent of existing “policy space”, i.e., by how aggressively policy was tightened before COVID-19. The use of macroprudential tools was not significantly affected by the space available to use other policy tools (such as fiscal policy, monetary policy, FX intervention, and capital flow management measures), and the use of other tools was not significantly affected by the space available to use macroprudential policy. This suggests that although macroprudential tools are being used countercyclically and should therefore help stabilize economies and financial markets, there appears to be an opportunity to better integrate the use of macroprudential tools with other policies in the future.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77704196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Using Household Rosters from Survey Data to Estimate All-cause Mortality during COVID in India 利用调查数据中的住户名册估计印度COVID期间的全因死亡率

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29192

A. Malani, Sabareesh Ramachandran

{"title":"Using Household Rosters from Survey Data to Estimate All-cause Mortality during COVID in India","authors":"A. Malani, Sabareesh Ramachandran","doi":"10.3386/w29192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29192","url":null,"abstract":"Official statistics on deaths in India during the COVID pandemic are either incomplete or are reported with a delay. To overcome this shortcoming, we estimate excess deaths in India using the household roster from a large panel data set, the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, which reports attrition from death. We address the problem that the exact timing of death is not reported in two ways, via a moving average and differencing monthly deaths. We estimate roughly 4.5 million (95% CI: 2.8M to 6.2M) excess deaths over 16 months during the pandemic in India. While we cannot demonstrate causality between COVID and excess deaths, the pattern of excess deaths is consistent with COVID-associated mortality. Excess deaths peaked roughly during the two COVID waves in India;the age structure of excess deaths is right skewed relative to baseline, consistent with COVID infection fatality rates;and excess deaths are positively correlated with reported infections. Finally, we find that the incidence of excess deaths was disproportionately among the highest tercile of income-earners and was negatively associated with district-level mobility.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84326483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Concentration and Resilience in the U.S. Meat Supply Chains 美国肉类供应链的集中和弹性

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29103

M. Ma, J. Lusk

{"title":"Concentration and Resilience in the U.S. Meat Supply Chains","authors":"M. Ma, J. Lusk","doi":"10.3386/w29103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29103","url":null,"abstract":"Supply chains for many agricultural products have an hour-glass shape;in between a sizable number of farmers and consumers is a smaller number of processors. The concentrated nature of the meat processing sectors in the United States implies that disruption of the processing capacity of any one plant, from accident, weather, or as recently witnessed – worker illnesses from a pandemic – has the potential to lead to system-wide disruptions. We explore the extent to which a less concentrated meat processing sector would be less vulnerable to the risks of temporary plant shutdowns. We calibrate an economic model to match the actual horizontal structure of the U.S. beef packing sector and conduct counter-factual simulations. With Cournot competition among heterogeneous packing plants, the model determines how industry output and producer and consumer welfare vary with the odds of exogenous plant shutdowns under different horizontal structures. We find that increasing odds of shutdown results in a widening of the farm-to-retail price spread even as packer profits fall, regardless of the structure. Results indicate that the extent to which a more diffuse packing sector performs better in ensuring a given level of output, and thus food security, depends on the exogenous risk of shutdown and the level of output desired;no horizontal structure dominates. These results illustrate the consequences of policies and industry efforts aimed at increasing the resilience of the food supply chain and highlight that there are no easy solutions to improving the short-run resilience by changing the horizontal concentration of meat packing.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81399015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15

Direct and Spillover Effects from Staggered Adoption of Health Policies: Evidence from COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders 交错采用卫生政策的直接和溢出效应:来自COVID-19居家令的证据

Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) Pub Date : 2021-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29088

Vadim Elenev, L. Quintero, A. Rebucci, Emilia Simeonova

{"title":"Direct and Spillover Effects from Staggered Adoption of Health Policies: Evidence from COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Orders","authors":"Vadim Elenev, L. Quintero, A. Rebucci, Emilia Simeonova","doi":"10.3386/w29088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w29088","url":null,"abstract":"Local policies can have substantial spillovers both across geographies and markets. Little is known about the impact of public health regulations across administrative borders. We estimate U.S. county level direct and spillover effects of Stay-at-Home-Orders (SHOs) aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19 on mobility and social interaction measures. We propose a modified difference-in-difference regression design, based on contiguous-county triplets. This approach compares treated counties, which adopted the SHO, and neighbors, to the neighbor's neighbors, which we term hinterland, counties. We find that mobility in neighboring counties declined by a third to a half as much as in the treated locations. These spillover effects are concentrated in neighbors that share media markets with treated counties. Using directional mobility data, we decompose the spillover decline in mobility into reductions in external visits coming from the treated county and an even stronger voluntary decline in the neighbor county's own traffic. Together, our results provide strong evidence that SHOs operate through information sharing and illustrate the quantitative importance of voluntary social distancing. The finding that the estimated spillovers are in the same direction as the direct effects casts doubt on the prevailing narrative that a more nationally coordinated policy response would have accomplished a greater reduction in mobility and contacts.","PeriodicalId":84011,"journal":{"name":"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research)","volume":"108 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80546518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 12