World review (Brisbane, Qld.)最新文献_第4页

The Murky Future of Monetary Policy 货币政策的模糊未来

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/r.104.178-88

Mickey D. Levy, Charles I. Plosser

{"title":"The Murky Future of Monetary Policy","authors":"Mickey D. Levy, Charles I. Plosser","doi":"10.20955/r.104.178-88","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.178-88","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Reserve first published a “Statement on Longer-run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy” in January 2012.1 The purpose was to enhance transparency and accountability by clarifying its interpretation of the statutory mandates established by Congress. The two key elements of that effort were to formally establish a 2 percent longer-run inflation target as being consistent with its price stability mandate and to stress that it was not appropriate to establish a quantitative target for maximum employment, as such a target was not directly observable and was influenced by many factors unrelated to monetary policy. This document was frequently referred to by the Fed as the “consensus statement.” During the ensuing eight years, the economy continued its recovery from the 2007-09 recession. The unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low of 3.5 percent prior to the pandemic and government shutdowns of 2020. The inflation rate remained modestly below the Fed’s adopted inflation target, averaging about 1.4 percent over the 2012-19 period. In response to concerns about low inflation In August 2020, the Federal Reserve unveiled its new strategic framework. One major objective of the Fed was to address its concerns over the potential consequences for the conduct of monetary policy when the policy rate was constrained by its effective lower bound. This article concludes that there are significant flaws in the new strategy and that it encourages a more discretionary approach to monetary policy and increases the risks of policy errors. The new framework is an overly complex and asymmetric flexible average inflation targeting scheme that introduces a significant inflationary bias into policy and expands the scope for discretion by broadening the Fed’s employment mandate to “maximum inclusive employment.” In a postscript, the article describes how quickly the flaws have been revealed and urges a reset toward a more systematic and coherent strategy that is transparent and broadly understood by the public. (JEL E52)","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89812463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Failing to Provide Public Goods: Why the Afghan Army Did Not Fight 未能提供公共产品:为什么阿富汗军队没有参战

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/r.104.110-19

Rohan Dutta, D. Levine, S. Modica

{"title":"Failing to Provide Public Goods: Why the Afghan Army Did Not Fight","authors":"Rohan Dutta, D. Levine, S. Modica","doi":"10.20955/r.104.110-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.110-19","url":null,"abstract":"The theory of public goods is mainly about the di(cid:30)culty in paying for them. Here we ask why when funding is available public goods may never-the-less not be provided as in the case of the Afghan Army. We explore this issue using a simple model of a public good that can be provided through collective action and peer pressure by modeling the self organization of a group (the Afghan Army) as a mechanism design problem. We consider two kinds of transfer subsidies from an external entity such as the US government. One is a Pigouvian subsidy that simply pays the salaries rewarding individuals who provide e(cid:27)ort. The second is an output/resource multiplier (for example, the provision of military equipment, tactical skills, training, and so forth) that ampli(cid:28)es the e(cid:27)ort provided through collective action. We show that the introduction of a Pigiouvian subsidy can result in less e(cid:27)ort being provided than in the absence of a subsidy. By contrast, an output/resource multiplier subsidy, which is useful only if collective action is taken, necessarily increases output via an increase in e(cid:27)ort. Our conclusion is that the fact that the USA provided the wrong kind of subsidy may have been among the reasons why the Afghan army did not (cid:28)ght.","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77116531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disparities in COVID-19’s Impact on Employment and Household Consumption COVID-19对就业和家庭消费影响的差异

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/r.104.224-65

Andrea Flores, George-Levi Gayle

引用次数: 1

Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic COVID-19大流行期间全球供应链中断和通货膨胀

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/r.104.78-91

Ana Maria Santacreu, J. LaBelle

引用次数: 26

Understanding the Gender Earnings Gap: Hours Worked, Occupational Sorting, and Labor Market Experience 理解性别收入差距:工作时间、职业分类和劳动力市场经验

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/R.103.175-205

M. Canon, Limor Golan, Cody A. Smith

{"title":"Understanding the Gender Earnings Gap: Hours Worked, Occupational Sorting, and Labor Market Experience","authors":"M. Canon, Limor Golan, Cody A. Smith","doi":"10.20955/R.103.175-205","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/R.103.175-205","url":null,"abstract":"The labor force participation of women has increased substantially since the 1960s. At the same time, the gender earnings gap has declined from about 40 percent in the late 1960s to less than 28 percent in the early 1990s and has stopped converging since.1 Much of the gender earnings gap is explained by gender differences in labor force attachment and accumulated labor market experience. In particular, the gender earnings gap increases with age as the experience gap increases.2 One explanation for the remaining gender earnings gap is that many jobs disproportionately reward working long hours.3 In many jobs, the pay is nonlinear in hours worked and penalizes workers who choose to work fewer hours. This reward structure tends to affect women of childbearing years disproportionately and also affects their occupational choices. Furthermore, in most occupations, the representation of women at the top-paying jobs is low—even if at lower levels there are many women.4 This article documents life-cycle gender differences in labor market outcomes using longitudinal data of a cohort of individuals from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. As in other datasets, the gender earnings gap increases with age. We find that hours worked and labor market experience are the most substantial observable variables in explaining the gender pay gap. We also focus on patterns in occupational changes over the life cycle, as a large part of pay growth occurs when workers change jobs. We find that college-educated men, on average, move into occupations with higher task complexity. We further show that women are less likely to change occupations. Moreover, on average, pay grows when workers change occupations, but the growth is smaller for women. Finally, we discuss theories that are consistent with the patterns we document. (JEL J16, J24, J31)","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"318 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83665725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lockdown Responses to COVID-19 对COVID-19的封锁反应

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/R.103.127-51

Violeta A. Gutkowski

引用次数: 3

Optimal Capital Taxation and Precautionary Savings 最优资本税收和预防性储蓄

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/r.103.333-49

Yunmin Chen, YiLi Chien, C. C. Yang

引用次数: 0

Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics 地区汽油价格动态

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.20955/r.103.289-314

J. Bennett, Michael T. Owyang, E. K. Vermann

{"title":"Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics","authors":"J. Bennett, Michael T. Owyang, E. K. Vermann","doi":"10.20955/r.103.289-314","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.289-314","url":null,"abstract":"Oil shocks have been important factors in most postwar recessions (Hamilton, 2011). One of the primary channels through which oil price shocks are felt by consumers is through their effect on gasoline prices. Similar to other prices and exchange rates, pass-through indicates the degree to which oil price fluctuations affect gasoline prices. The extant literature has identified a number of asymmetries in the pass-through of oil price shocks to gasoline prices, with particular focus on the hypothesis that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices and less rapidly to decreases in oil prices. The previous literature finds mixed evidence of asymmetry in the gasoline market, with variety in the type of asymmetry, the level of geographic granularity (e.g., national versus regional), and the time sample and frequency of data used. Much of the extant literature A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric passthrough. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the demand for gasoline, (ii) the supply of gasoline (proxied by the distance from Cushing, Oklahoma), or the cities’ fiscal environments (proxied by the level of taxes). We examine whether these characteristics affect either the magnitudes of the asymmetries or the presence of asymmetries. While we find that city-level characteristics cannot (robustly) explain variation in the magnitudes of the asymmetries, they do seem to affect the probability that a city experiences asymmetric pass-through. (JEL C32, Q41)","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81223460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why Is the Labor Share Declining? 为什么劳动收入占比在下降?

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2020-10-22 DOI: 10.20955/r.102.413-28

S. Aum, Yongseok Shin

引用次数: 8

The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis 2018年美国贸易政策的经济影响:国家层面的分析

World review (Brisbane, Qld.) Pub Date : 2020-10-22 DOI: 10.20955/r.102.385-412

Ana Maria Santacreu, M. Peake

{"title":"The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu, M. Peake","doi":"10.20955/r.102.385-412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.102.385-412","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. trade policy that started in 2017 has spiraled into a return to protectionism. The trade war began with recommendations from the U.S. administration to implement tariffs on specific goods (e.g., solar panels, washing machines, and steel and aluminum) in an attempt to protect national security and mitigate negative impacts faced by domestic producers of such products.1 Tariffs on these goods were enacted in 2018 and were followed by retaliatory tariffs from China, along with retaliatory tariffs from the European Union (EU) and Canada on steel, aluminum, and agricultural products. The United States has continued to levy tariffs onto major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China.2 Perhaps the most noteworthy battle in the tariff front exists between the United States and China, given the growing tension between the two countries as the trade war progresses. In this article, we exploit variation in sector-state exposure to international trade and evaluate, empirically, the effect of trade policy on U.S. output growth and employment. Recent papers have explored the effect of the trade war on the United States through the lens of a We evaluate, empirically, the effect of changes in trade policy during the 2018-19 trade war on U.S. economic activity. We begin by documenting that sectors and states across the United States are heterogeneous in their exposure to international trade. To do that, we construct a measure of exposure that combines the share of a sector’s gross output that is accounted for by trade with the pattern of comparative advantage of each state in that sector. We then exploit cross-state heterogeneity in exposure to international trade and correlate it with measures of economic activity across U.S. states. Our findings suggest that states that were very exposed to trade at the onset of the trade war experienced worse outcomes in terms of employment and output growth. Our analysis is not aimed at concluding any causality effects, but instead focuses on correlations. (JEL F10, F13, F14)","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"1004 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88307444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2