Emilio Espino, J. Kozlowski, F. Martin, Juan M. Sánchez
{"title":"External Shocks versus Domestic Policies in Emerging Markets","authors":"Emilio Espino, J. Kozlowski, F. Martin, Juan M. Sánchez","doi":"10.20955/r.105.108-121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.105.108-121","url":null,"abstract":"Debt crises in emerging markets have been linked to large fiscal deficits, high inflation rates, and large devaluations. This article studies a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies to understand Argentina’s experience during the 2000s commodity boom (2005–2017), following the default of 2001. The model suggests that domestic policies played a critical role in Argentina’s poor economic performance. Despite exceptionally favorable terms of trade, a rise in government spending led to higher taxation, inflation and currency depreciation, and lower output. Economic performance would have been worse had Argentina followed a strict, rather than accommodative, monetary policy without curbing its expansionary fiscal policy. Finally, limited access to international credit markets during this episode did not appear to play a significant role.","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81783573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The COVID-19 Pandemic and Inflation: Lessons from Major US Wars","authors":"Kevin L. Kliesen, David C. Wheelock","doi":"10.20955/r.105.234-60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.105.234-60","url":null,"abstract":"US fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have been likened to those often adopted during wars. This article compares macroeconomic policies of the pandemic period with those of major US wars since the Civil War. Inflation often surges during wars, as it did in the second year of the pandemic, and the wartime experiences can provide insights about the relative scale and persistence of inflation associated with sudden, large increases in government expenditures, such as the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The article describes fiscal and monetary policies in each war and postwar period and traces differences in the relationships between the growth in government debt, the money stock","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135911152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model with “Acquired Immunity”","authors":"J. Carranza, J. D. Martin, Alvaro J. Riascos","doi":"10.20955/r.104.1-16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.1-16","url":null,"abstract":"We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data. The model implies that during 2020, government restrictions and the endogenous changes in individual behavior saved around 15,000 lives and decreased consumption by about 4.7 percent. The results suggest that most of this effect was the result of government policies.","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87639264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sectoral Impacts of Trade Wars","authors":"W. Cheng, Ping Wang","doi":"10.20955/r.104.17-40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.17-40","url":null,"abstract":"Not long after the worldwide Great Recession, protectionism began to rise, from the battled renegotiations of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), to the recently escalated U.S.-China trade war, to the ongoing Japan-Korea trade war. Rising protectionism concerns some economists, particularly those who view free trade as beneficial to both developed countries (hereafter, the North) and developing countries (hereafter, the South), by advancing world productivity and enhancing global consumer welfare. A particular concern is that recent trade protectionism has included broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products (for example, in the United States, nearly 90 percent of intermediate imports from China faced increased tariffs in 2018, as computed by Bown, 2019). Such tariffs violate the so-called Diamond and Mirrlees (1971) principle of optimal taxation: Taxing intermediate goods creates much larger economic distortions and is more harmful to economic development. In recent years, we have witnessed rising trade protectionism with broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products. In this article, we develop an accounting framework to evaluate the sectoral impacts of the current U.S.-China trade war. We find that U.S. final demand and intermediate demand for goods produced by China decline significantly, with the largest losses occurring in the Electronic and ICT (information and communications technology) industry and the Electrical industry. We obtain sizable deadweight losses for the United States, particularly in the Electronic and ICT; Electrical; and Furniture industries. We also find that, with a leakage rate of 20 percent, total losses to U.S. consumers and importers are $3.3 billion, about 0.05 percent of gross U.S. output, whereas the full leakage losses are $10.7 billion, or 0.16 percent of gross U.S. output, which is twice as much as the annual welfare gains from the North America Free Trade Agreement. (JEL D20, F10, O50)","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"12 19","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72372662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Increasing Employment by Halting Pandemic Unemployment Benefits","authors":"Iris Arbogast, Bill Dupor","doi":"10.20955/r.104.166-77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.166-77","url":null,"abstract":"In mid-2021, 26 states halted participation in all or some federal emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) programs before those programs’ federal funding lapsed. This article uses this asynchronous EUB cessation between early- and late-halting states to estimate the causal impact of benefit cessation on employment. We find that cessation increased employment by 29 persons for every 100 (pre-halt) EUB recipients. Expressed as a number of jobs, if all states had halted EUB in June, September employment would have been 3.4 million persons higher relative to a no-halt counterfactual. Late-halting states could have signifi-cantly accelerated their states’ jobs recoveries in the second half of 2021 through early program cessation. state-level employment. Our estimate indicates a 29-person increase in state employment—within a few months—for every 100 (pre-halt) EUB recipients. The jobs effect is statistically significant and robust to allowing for a number of controls. There remains a great deal of work to be done on this episode. Useful research might examine the effect of halting benefits on, for example, the employment response of older individuals, labor force participation, job openings, quits, and hires. n","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87115565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?","authors":"Victoria Gregory","doi":"10.20955/wp.2022.027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.027","url":null,"abstract":"This article identifies workers who experienced a job separation during the Great Recession or the pandemic recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year, using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not. The pool of exiters is disproportionately female, less educated, and older. During the pandemic recession, there were even more older workers in the exiters pool, although they were less likely to report being retired compared with in the Great Recession. In addition, statuses were more persistent during the Great Recession: For both exiters and non-exiters, the majority had the same labor force status a year later. I then use the patterns of these samples of job separators to estimate the propensity of being reemployed in a year and apply the estimates to the general out-of-work pools during the two recessions. I find that changes in the likelihood of being reemployed as well as the composition of individuals out of work are important for understanding the differences between the labor market in the two recessions.","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88005072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"1960s Interstate Highways and Homeowner Wealth Distribution","authors":"Jeffrey P. Cohen, N. Lownes, Bo Zhang","doi":"10.20955/r.104.317-36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.317-36","url":null,"abstract":"This house-level real estate wealth distribution changes nearby a major comparing values before the of the (1940) with those and shortly after the construction (1961-74). We also curves to examine the distribution of housing among exhibit a small distribution of wealth gains among all homeowners experiencing appreciation. But there a large inequitable distribution of wealth losses among whose houses higher","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75318356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shipping Prices and Import Price Inflation","authors":"Hannah Rubinton, M. Isaacson","doi":"10.20955/wp.2022.017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.017","url":null,"abstract":"During the pandemic, there have been unprecedented increases in the cost of shipping goods accompanied by delays and backlogs at the ports. At the same time, import price inflation has reached levels unseen since the early 1980s. This has led many to speculate that the two trends are linked. In this article, we use new data on the price of shipping goods between countries to analyze the extent to which increases in the price of shipping can account for the rise in U","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89979034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts","authors":"J. Bennett, Michael T. Owyang","doi":"10.20955/r.104.131-48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.131-48","url":null,"abstract":"Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both consumers and professionals overestimate inflation over their respective sample periods. Market-based forecasts as measured by the swap market breakeven inflation rates significantly overestimate actual inflation; Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market breakeven inflation rates exhibit no significant bias. We find that none of the forecasts can be considered rationalizable under symmetric loss. We also find that each forecast has predictive information that is not encompassed within that of another. (JEL E31, E37) pp. 131-48.","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82799729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Juan M. Sánchez, H. Inokuma, Pengfei Han, Jeremy Greenwood
{"title":"An Elementary Model of VC Financing and Growth","authors":"Juan M. Sánchez, H. Inokuma, Pengfei Han, Jeremy Greenwood","doi":"10.20955/wp.2022.031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.031","url":null,"abstract":"This article uses an endogenous growth model to study how the improvements in financing for innovative start-ups brought by venture capital (VC) affect firm innovation and growth. Partial equilibrium results show how lending contracts change as financing efficiency improves, while general equilibrium results show that better screening and development of projects by VC investors leads to higher aggregate productivity growth","PeriodicalId":83545,"journal":{"name":"World review (Brisbane, Qld.)","volume":"113 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75481988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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