Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.)最新文献_第9页

Predicting Adoption Probabilities in Social Networks 预测社会网络的采用概率

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.1287/isre.1120.0461

Xiao Fang, P. H. Hu, Zhepeng Li, Weiyu Tsai

{"title":"Predicting Adoption Probabilities in Social Networks","authors":"Xiao Fang, P. H. Hu, Zhepeng Li, Weiyu Tsai","doi":"10.1287/isre.1120.0461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.1120.0461","url":null,"abstract":"In a social network, adoption probability refers to the probability that a social entity will adopt a product, service, or opinion in the foreseeable future. Such probabilities are central to fundamental issues in social network analysis, including the influence maximization problem. In practice, adoption probabilities have significant implications for applications ranging from social network-based target marketing to political campaigns, yet predicting adoption probabilities has not received sufficient research attention. Building on relevant social network theories, we identify and operationalize key factors that affect adoption decisions: social influence, structural equivalence, entity similarity, and confounding factors. We then develop the locally weighted expectation-maximization method for Naive Bayesian learning to predict adoption probabilities on the basis of these factors. The principal challenge addressed in this study is how to predict adoption probabilities in the presence of confounding factors that are generally unobserved. Using data from two large-scale social networks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The empirical results also suggest that cascade methods primarily using social influence to predict adoption probabilities offer limited predictive power and that confounding factors are critical to adoption probability predictions.","PeriodicalId":82888,"journal":{"name":"Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.)","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73863190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 146

Using Imperfectly Elicited Fractiles for the Estimation of Probability Distribution Parameters 用不完全引出分形估计概率分布参数

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2012-08-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2160349

S. Bansal, G. Gutierrez

{"title":"Using Imperfectly Elicited Fractiles for the Estimation of Probability Distribution Parameters","authors":"S. Bansal, G. Gutierrez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2160349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2160349","url":null,"abstract":"We develop direct and indirect analytical approaches to determine the parameters of a distribution using elicited fractile values in the presence of elicitation errors. Both approaches seek to minimize the variance on the errors in the estimation of the parameters of the distribution. In the indirect approach we obtainweights for the elicited fractile values to estimate the moments of the distribution; estimates for the probability distribution parameters can then be obtained indirectly from the moment estimates. The direct approach provides weights to estimate the parameters directly from the elicited fractile values. For both approaches, we show that the weights are independent of the actual parameter values and depend only on the fractile probabilities being elicited when the distribution is a location-scale distribution. We show numerically that both these approaches should be preferred over approaches that ignore elicitation error or elicit only a specific set of fractiles. The parameter invariant weights for an arbitrary set of fractile probabilities provide for a flexible elicitation of probability distributions. Subsequently, we extend the results to other non location-scale distributions including the Johnson family of distributions.","PeriodicalId":82888,"journal":{"name":"Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.)","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77944480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Effectiveness: A Measure of Demand Effect in Productivity Analysis 有效性:生产率分析中需求效应的度量

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2012-05-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2070290

Chia-Yen Lee, Andrew L. Johnson

引用次数: 2

Making the Best Even Better: How Idea Pool Structure can make the Top Ideas Exceptional 让最好的变得更好:创意池结构如何让顶级创意变得卓越

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2012-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1983389

Sanjiv Erat

引用次数: 1

The Horizontal Fairness Concern of Backup Supplier in a Triadic Supply Chain 三元供应链中备用供应商的横向公平问题

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2012-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2015703

Junlin Chen, Xiaobo Zhao, Z. M. Shen

引用次数: 1

Green Innovation in Technology and Innovation Management – An Exploratory Literature Review 技术中的绿色创新与创新管理——探索性文献综述

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.2011.00672.x

Tim Schiederig, F. Tietze, C. Herstatt

引用次数: 713

Impacts of Information Technology on Mass Customization Capability of Manufacturing Plants 信息技术对制造工厂大规模定制能力的影响

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2011-02-17 DOI: 10.1108/01443571111182173

David Xiaosong Peng, Genshen Liu, Gregory R. Heim

{"title":"Impacts of Information Technology on Mass Customization Capability of Manufacturing Plants","authors":"David Xiaosong Peng, Genshen Liu, Gregory R. Heim","doi":"10.1108/01443571111182173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/01443571111182173","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – The impact of information technology (IT) on mass customization (MC) capability has been implied in the literature but seldom subjected to empirical examination. This study theoretically relates four types of IT applications with MC capability and empirically examines these relationships. Design/methodology/approach – This study identifies four types of IT that potentially support MC capability, including product configurator IT, new product development IT, manufacturing IT, and supplier collaboration IT. Drawing on organizational information processing theory, this study associates the four IT types with a manufacturer’s MC capability. A structural equation model is tested using survey data collected from a sample of manufacturing plants that focus on product customization. Findings – The empirical results indicate that three of the four IT types either strongly or marginally support a manufacturer’s MC capability. Research limitations/implications – Data used in this study are cross-sectional in nature. Also, a set of refined IT measures should be developed in future studies. Practical implications – The paper identifies managerial opportunities for investing in IT to support or enhance MC capability.Originality/value – The study is one of the first efforts to empirically examine the impact of multiple types of IT applications on MC capability. The study also develops a classification framework of IT applications in manufacturing plants.","PeriodicalId":82888,"journal":{"name":"Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.)","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76234616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 75

Designing Product Lines with Higher Aggregate Environmental Quality 设计具有更高集料环境质量的生产线

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2011-01-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1744301

V. Krishnan, Paul Lacourbe

引用次数: 13

Decentralized Supply Risk Management 分散供应风险管理

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2010-09-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1616969

Goker Aydin, V. Babich, D. Beil, Zhibin (Ben) Yang

引用次数: 48

Buyback Contracts with Price-Dependent Demands: Effects of Demand Uncertainty 具有价格依赖需求的回购契约:需求不确定性的影响

Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.) Pub Date : 2010-02-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1559475

Yingxue Zhao, T. Choi, T. Cheng, S. Sethi, Shouyang Wang

{"title":"Buyback Contracts with Price-Dependent Demands: Effects of Demand Uncertainty","authors":"Yingxue Zhao, T. Choi, T. Cheng, S. Sethi, Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1559475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1559475","url":null,"abstract":"We explore buyback contracts in a supplier–retailer supply chain where the retailer faces a price-dependent downward-sloping demand curve subject to uncertainty. Differentiated from the existing literature, this work focuses on analytically examining how the uncertainty level embedded in market demand affects the applicability of buyback contracts in supply chain management. To this end, we seek to characterize the buyback model in terms of only the demand uncertainty level (DUL). With this new research perspective, we have obtained some interesting new findings for buyback. For example, we find that (1) even though the supply chain’s efficiency will change over the DUL with a wholesale price-only contract, it will be maintained constantly at that of the corresponding deterministic demand setting with buyback, regardless of the DUL; (2) in the practice of buyback, the buyback issuer should adjust only the buyback price in reaction to different DULs while leave the wholesale price unchanged as that in the corresponding deterministic demand setting; (3) only in the demand setting with an intermediate level of the uncertainty (which is identified quantitatively in Theorem 5), buyback provision is beneficial simultaneously for the supplier, the retailer, and the supply chain system, while this is not the case in the other demand settings. This work reveals that DUL can be a critical factor affecting the applicability of supply chain contracts.","PeriodicalId":82888,"journal":{"name":"Technology (Elmsford, N.Y.)","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72761455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 51