{"title":"Effects of Coffee arabica cultivation systems on tropical soil microbial biomass and activity in the northeast region of Brazil","authors":"Flavia Ferreira de Carvalho, Patrícia Anjos Bittencourt Barreto-Garcia, Raquel Pérez-Maluf, Paulo Henrique Marques Monroe, Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira, Thaís Chaves Almeida, Marcio Renato Nunes","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01026-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01026-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Microbial biomass (MB) is an important indicator of soil quality, being responsive to changes resulting from soil management and use. Although there are studies that evaluate changes in soil microbiological attributes in coffee growing systems, the effects of these systems on MB and its relationship with other soil attributes have rarely been investigated, especially in tropical climate conditions at altitude. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of different coffee growing systems on biomass and microbial activity and how these responses relate to other soil and litter attributes. Our study was carried out in soils under three <i>Coffea arabica</i> cultivation systems (CCM—monoculture, CCB—consortium with banana, AFS—agroforestry system with <i>Grevillea robusta</i>) and under native forest (NF). Soil samples were collected at a depth of 0–10 cm and subjected to analysis to determine the microbial biomass carbon content (MB-C) by the fumigation-extraction method, accumulated respiration through released CO<sub>2</sub>, soil organic carbon (SOC) and labile carbon by wet oxidation. There was a 45% reduction in SOC in coffee growing systems and a 75% reduction in MB-C in CCM compared to NF. The AFS is closer to native forest conditions due to its positive influence on the SOC content and the efficiency of converting this carbon into microbial carbon. The presence of the forestry component is positive and should be encouraged to mitigate the impacts of coffee growing on the soil.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2397 - 2410"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141865295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Dogliotti, J. P. Posse, P. Soca, P. Chilibroste, N. Aubet, J. K. Fedrigo, J. Gonzalez-Talice
{"title":"Characterizing microenvironmental factors and the forest component in the production of natural grasslands in a silvopastoral system with Eucalyptus grandis","authors":"G. Dogliotti, J. P. Posse, P. Soca, P. Chilibroste, N. Aubet, J. K. Fedrigo, J. Gonzalez-Talice","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01028-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01028-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Integrating livestock with afforestation in Silvopastoral Systems (SPS) can enhance livestock production while mitigating climate and economic fluctuations. In SPS, tree canopies modify solar radiation and wind speed, affecting pasture evapotranspiration and water availability. This work aims to contribute to understanding tree-pasture-environment interactions and the light-use efficiency of natural grassland in SPS with fast-growing forest species. The study site is in Reboledo, Florida, Uruguay (34° 1′15.16″S, 55°39′13.75″W), consisting of natural pastures lined with triple rows of <i>Eucalyptus grandis</i> and 14–19 m alleys. Two experiments were conducted, one in the field and one in growth chamber. Plots were established in three different tree ages (2012 (10y), 2013 (9y), 2019 (3y)) and a control. Each tree age had three zones relative to tree lines (Row (R), Intermediate (I) and Middle Alley (MA)). Results showed that variations between zones were less pronounced in the 10y trees compared to the 3y trees. Accumulated PAR differences ranged from 32% in 10y trees to 38% in 3y trees, in tree LAI (28–76%) and Soil Water Content (WC) (31–51%). Accumulated PAR in MA zone (3y trees) did not differ from the control without trees. Soil WC in R is the lowest among all situations in 3y plot and the highest in the 10y. Photosynthetic Active Radiation Use Efficiency (PARUE) for natural grassland sod pieces under simulated shade averaged 0.40 g mol<sup>−1</sup>. Younger trees generated a more heterogeneous system with more pronounced zones, where the middle alley resembles the control without trees in the studied variables.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2071 - 2085"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141865289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lina Paola Giraldo, Julián Chará, Alexander Velásquez-Valencia, Mauren Ordoñez-García
{"title":"Vegetation structure and bird diversity in silvopastoral systems of the Amazonian piedmont of Colombia","authors":"Lina Paola Giraldo, Julián Chará, Alexander Velásquez-Valencia, Mauren Ordoñez-García","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01035-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01035-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The department of Caquetá in the Amazon foothills of Colombia is one of the most dynamic in terms of cattle production in the country. Thousands of hectares have been replaced by pasture monoculture with negative consequences for the biodiversity. Silvopastoral systems (SPS) have been promoted in the region as an alternative to improve tree cover, biodiversity and productivity of cattle farms. To analyze the impact of SPS on plant and bird diversity, 22 plots with three silvopastoral arrangements (tree alleys: TA, scattered trees in pastures: STP, intensive silvopastoral systems: iSPS) and pasture monocultures (PM) were sampled using 20 × 50 m quadrats for vegetation and 50 m radius fixed points for birds. A total of 556 individuals of 26 families and 60 plant species were found. TA and STP had significantly higher abundance and richness of vegetation than PM. For bird fauna 2209 individuals belonging to 18 orders, 42 families and 149 species were present. Bird diversity and abundance were significantly higher in TA than PM. The diversity and abundance of plants, as well as vegetation structure had a positive and significant effect on the abundance and richness of birds, and on the richness of frugivorous, insectivorous, and omnivorous birds, and the richness of species with preferences for different habitats. Plant diversity and structure complexity is key to improve diversity of birds, frugivorous and insectivorous species and therefore should be considered when selecting plant species to be introduced in the cattle systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2253 - 2266"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ciro Abbud Righi, Biyensa Gurmessa, Ranjith P. Udawatta, Morgan P. Davis
{"title":"Trees and grass buffers impact on soil carbon in an agroforestry alleycropping watershed","authors":"Ciro Abbud Righi, Biyensa Gurmessa, Ranjith P. Udawatta, Morgan P. Davis","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01043-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01043-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Perennial vegetation in farmlands can mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) by capturing atmospheric carbon and storing it in the soil for extended periods. The objective of this study was to quantify soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations and stocks under tree buffer (TB), grass buffer (GB), grass waterways (WW) and crop field (CS, corn-soybean rotation) to evaluate the significance of conservation measures in C sequestration projects. Soil samples were collected up to 1 m depth at upper, middle, and lower landscape positions from 26-year-old TB, GB, and WW in a watershed. The SOC concentration decreased with increasing soil depth for all four land uses. However, as expected, bulk density increased with increasing soil depth for all four land uses. It was highest for the CS land use. In 2023, for the depth of 0–10 cm, SOC increased by +0.63, +1.06, +1.37 and +1.63% in CS, GB, TB, and WW, respectively, since the land uses were established 26 years ago. Land uses had greater impacts on SOC stock in the top 50 cm depth, with WW (113.5 ± 12.9 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>), TB (106 ± 14.5 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>), and GB (102.4 ± 11.6 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>) compared to CS (90.9 ± 10.2 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup>). However, at watershed level, with ~ 10% cover by TB or GB areas and the rest under CS, SOC stock up to 50 cm depth was respectively 91.6 and 91.2 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup> compared to 90 Mg ha<sup>−1</sup> by CS alone—1.3 to 1.8% increase. This is a significant increase in soil organic carbon across the landscape, which was realized with the conservation practices and agroforestry, while also playing a crucial role in protecting surface runoff in the landscape. Future studies may consider valuation of the overall ecosystem services due to the land uses (conservation measures) and the trees by considering optimization of incorporating such technologies in the farming systems to reduce negative trade-offs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2483 - 2498"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
José Ricardo Macedo Pezzopane, Cristiam Bosi, Henrique Bauab Brunetti, Roberto Giolo de Almeida, Valdemir Antônio Laura, Caroline Carvalho de Oliveira, Marcelo Dias Muller
{"title":"Basal area as a strategic indicator for forest component management in silvopastoral systems: insights from long-term experiments","authors":"José Ricardo Macedo Pezzopane, Cristiam Bosi, Henrique Bauab Brunetti, Roberto Giolo de Almeida, Valdemir Antônio Laura, Caroline Carvalho de Oliveira, Marcelo Dias Muller","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01038-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01038-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aimed to evaluate the effect of tree shading in silvopastoral systems (SPS) on forage production through long-term experiments, as well as to determine the correlation between dendrometric variables of eucalyptus trees and transmission of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to establish thereby the optimum forest cover for effective management in these systems. We evaluated four SPSs in São Carlos, SP (21° 57′ 42″ S, 47° 50′ 28″ W, 854 m.) and Campo Grande, MS (20° 24′ 55″ S, 54° 42′ 26″ W, 530 m.), Brazil, considering various factors such as tree age, management, and density. The systems included pastures with eucalyptus (<i>Eucalyptus urograndis</i>) or corymbia (<i>Corymbia citriodora</i>) trees planted in single rows at densities ranging from 83 to 357 trees ha<sup>−1</sup>. During the rainy season, from October to March, we analyzed the correlation between PAR transmission and relative forage production (forage production in the SPS/forage production in full sun), as well as the correlation between dendrometric variables, such as diameter at breast height, volume and basal area per unit area and PAR transmission. The results showed a linear reduction in production in the SSPs due to the decrease in PAR transmission. The strongest correlation between tree growth and PAR transmission was obtained with the basal area per hectare variable (<i>r</i> = − 0.91). Thus, this study successfully established a linear relationship between basal area per hectare and PAR transmission, providing insights for the implementation of tree thinning management in SPSs to maintain the productive potential of forage plants in the understory of these systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2013 - 2025"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Martínez, F. Cuerda, F. Gomez, V. Mondino, L. Tejera, M. Tarabini, J. Bava, A. R. von Müller
{"title":"Direct and indirect estimations of aerial forage net primary productivity in Nothofagus antarctica forests under silvopastoral systems in Northwest of Chubut, Argentina","authors":"N. Martínez, F. Cuerda, F. Gomez, V. Mondino, L. Tejera, M. Tarabini, J. Bava, A. R. von Müller","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01031-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01031-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We evaluated the annual net primary productivity (ANPP) on understory in secondary <i>Nothofagus antarctica</i> forests under silvopastoral systems in Patagonia. We assessed the effect of thinning and estimated understory ANPP using biomass cropping and remote sensing. Thinning was conducted with a remaining tree cover of 50–60% in high and intermediate forest condition. Exclusion fencing was implemented in grazing areas to establish 44 paired plots and 9 open surrounding areas. Two annual harvests were conducted over three growing seasons. Remote sensing was employed to indirectly estimate forest-covered area ANPP, using linear regressions adjusted to normalized difference vegetation index, active photosynthetically absorbed radiation, fraction of PAR absorbed by photosynthetic tissue in a vegetation canopy, canopy cover density, and ANPP. Understory ANPP found in thinned plots versus control plots were 788 versus 234 kg DM ha<sup>−1</sup> year<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, with higher understory ANPP observed in intermediate compared to high forest condition. Adjusted models for estimating understory ANPP under ñire forest canopy showed 80% precision. It was possible to indirectly estimate understory ANPP under thinned ñire forest using optical remote sensing. The results of this study offer a valuable remote sensing decision making tool for stakeholders, enabling insights to be scaled up to broader territory and aiding in adjusting agroforestry systems’ livestock carrying capacity. Silvopastoral systems of <i>N. antarctica</i> subjected to moderate thinning experience increased forage production under remaining canopy, more than doubling production compared to control forests with full density, although it remains approximately half of production observed in open areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2027 - 2040"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. M. Pizarro, R. Zarza, P. Boggiano, M. Cadenazzi, V. D. Picasso
{"title":"Botanical composition gradients in silvopastoral systems on temperate native grasslands of Uruguay","authors":"D. M. Pizarro, R. Zarza, P. Boggiano, M. Cadenazzi, V. D. Picasso","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01027-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01027-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Silvopastoral systems may provide important production and environmental benefits. The loss of cool-season (C3) grasses from temperate grazed native grasslands is associated with selective grazing and excessive solar radiation that limit their survival. Silvopastoral systems integrate trees with grasslands that provide shade to both cattle and herbaceous plants, potentially favoring C3 species. There is limited information about the effect of trees on the species and functional composition of native grasslands in the Campos biome in South America. The objective of this study was to detect gradients in the botanical composition of grasslands as affected by changes in the shade associated with distance to the trees and cardinal orientation in three situations defined by the combination of soil and tree species (<i>Prosopis</i> on Solonetz, <i>Acacia</i> on Brunisols, and <i>Eucalyptus</i> on Brunisols). Soil cover of the herbaceous species under trees was recorded in double transects located in the four cardinal directions. In all situations there were changes in pasture composition in the different shaded regions (total shade, partial shade, or full sun). Under the canopy, there was an increase of cool-season grasses such as <i>Bromus catharticus</i> Vahl<i>, </i><i>Lolium multiflorum</i> Lam.<i>, </i><i>Stipa hyalina</i> (Nees) Barkworth<i>,</i> and <i>S. setigera</i> J.Presl. At greater distances from trees, cover of warm-season grasses, such as <i>Axonopus affinis</i> Chase and <i>Paspalum notatum</i> Flueggé increased. These gradients suggest that trees in silvopastoral systems can increase the abundance of cool-season species and potentially improve the forage nutritive value of the native pasture.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2055 - 2068"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10457-024-01027-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guillermo Martínez Pastur, Yamina Micaela Rosas, Juan Manuel Cellini, Alejandro Huertas Herrera, Mónica D. R. Toro-Manríquez, María Vanessa Lencinas, Julieta Benítez, Sebastián Pechar, Pablo Luis Peri
{"title":"Changes derived by the silvopastoral management in Nothofagus antarctica forests of Tierra del Fuego compared to other productive environments","authors":"Guillermo Martínez Pastur, Yamina Micaela Rosas, Juan Manuel Cellini, Alejandro Huertas Herrera, Mónica D. R. Toro-Manríquez, María Vanessa Lencinas, Julieta Benítez, Sebastián Pechar, Pablo Luis Peri","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01013-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01013-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Silvopastoral systems (SPS) are suggested to promote a balance between productive alternatives and ecological values. The aim of this study was to determine the changes generated by SPS (thinning + livestock) in <i>Nothofagus antarctica</i> (ñire) forests compared to other productive environments (unmanaged forests, dry grasslands, wet grasslands). A total of 16 areas (4 treatments x 4 replicates) were selected in El Roble ranch (Tierra del Fuego, Argentina), where 50 variables were surveyed through plots (forest structure, forage, animals, biodiversity) and sampling in soil pits. Indices for each component and univariate analyses were performed to compare the studied environments. The results showed that SPS generate significant changes in the studied components, causing positive and negative synergies on the studied variables (e.g., forage biomass increases 1.5 times, <i>p</i> = 0.008). These changes promoted new productive environments with intermediate characteristics between forests and grasslands (dry and humid). It was observed that tree roots, unlike herbs and grasses, were located not only in the upper layer, but also appear in higher percentages at deeper layers (e.g., tree roots between 20 and 30 cm soil depth are comparable to those values found between 0 and 10 cm, <i>p</i> = 0.035). These results allowed us to identify the factors of change in the studied components, as well as potential indicators for monitoring. Understanding the dynamics and interactions among the different ecosystem components, allowed to generate new proposals that must be economically viable (e.g., management costs vs. growth of trees and forage) and environmentally sustainable (e.g., conservation of the original biodiversity).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 7","pages":"2237 - 2252"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141551132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Can ICT-enabled knowledge acquisition bridge the gap in enhancing the adoption of multipurpose agroforestry tree species (MPTS) in Malawi?","authors":"Chisomo Haswell, Robertson Khataza","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01033-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01033-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Low adoption of agroforestry and other sustainable agriculture practices presents a pressing issue for both policy makers and practitioners in Sub-Saharan Africa. The inefficiency of extension advisory services partly contributes to low adoption of these practices in this region. Using survey data collected from Mzimba and Dedza districts in Malawi, this study applies an Ordered Probit model to assess the effect of ICT-enabled knowledge acquisition on the adoption of multipurpose tree species (MPTS). The results show that radio and WhatsApp messenger are key ICT-based platforms facilitating MPTS adoption. On the other hand, community-based farmer advisors (CBFAs) are an important form of face-to-face extension approach for promoting the adoption of MPTS. From a gender perspective, the results indicate that women farmers might be more inclined to adopt MPTS than their male counterparts, although this effect is not statistically significant. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening ICT-enabled extension advisory services to complement in-person extension services in an era when the number of extension agents is dwindling and the available extension officers are constrained to reach millions of farmers. Additionally, there is a need to scale digital extension services by developing appropriate content suitable for specific digital platforms and the type of agroforestry practices being promoted.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 6","pages":"1605 - 1617"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Abigaba, Abel Chemura, Christoph Gornott, Bernhard Schauberger
{"title":"The potential of agroforestry to buffer climate change impacts on suitability of coffee and banana in Uganda","authors":"David Abigaba, Abel Chemura, Christoph Gornott, Bernhard Schauberger","doi":"10.1007/s10457-024-01025-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10457-024-01025-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Coffee, an important global commodity, is threatened by climate change. Agroforestry has been considered as one option to maintain or enhance coffee production. In this study, we use a machine learning ensemble consisting of MaxEnt, Random Forest and Boosted Regression Trees to assess climate change impacts on the suitability to grow Arabica coffee, Robusta coffee and bananas in Uganda by 2050. Based on this, the buffering potential of <i>Cordia africana</i> and <i>Ficus natalensis,</i> the two commonly used shading trees in agroforestry systems is assessed. Our robust models (AUC of 0.7–0.9) indicate temperature-related variables as relevant for Arabica coffee suitability, while precipitation-related variables determine Robusta coffee and banana suitability. Under current climatic conditions, only a quarter of the total land area is suitable for growing Arabica coffee, while over three-quarters are suitable for Robusta coffee and bananas. Our results suggest that climate change will reduce the area suitable to grow Arabica coffee, Robusta coffee and bananas by 20%, 9% and 3.5%, respectively, under SSP3-RCP7.0 by 2050. A shift in areas suitable for Arabica coffee to highlands might occur, leading to potential encroachment on protected areas. In our model, implementing agroforestry with up to 50% shading could partially offset suitable area losses for Robusta coffee—but not for Arabica coffee. The potential to produce valuable Arabica coffee thus decreases under climate change and cannot be averted by agroforestry. We conclude that the implementation and design of agroforestry must be based on species, elevation, and regional climate projections to avoid maladaptation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":7610,"journal":{"name":"Agroforestry Systems","volume":"98 6","pages":"1555 - 1577"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10457-024-01025-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141517956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}