Statistical communications in infectious diseases最新文献_第6页

Nonparametric and Semiparametric Analysis of Current Status Data Subject to Outcome Misclassification 结果错误分类的现状数据的非参数和半参数分析

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2011-01-21 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1032

V. G. Sal y Rosas, J. Hughes

引用次数: 18

Prediction of an Epidemic Curve: A Supervised Classification Approach. 流行病曲线预测:一种监督分类方法。

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2011-01-01 Epub Date: 2011-10-04 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1038

Elaine O Nsoesie, Richard Beckman, Madhav Marathe, Bryan Lewis

{"title":"Prediction of an Epidemic Curve: A Supervised Classification Approach.","authors":"Elaine O Nsoesie, Richard Beckman, Madhav Marathe, Bryan Lewis","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1038","url":null,"abstract":"Classification methods are widely used for identifying underlying groupings within datasets and predicting the class for new data objects given a trained classifier. This study introduces a project aimed at using a combination of simulations and classification techniques to predict epidemic curves and infer underlying disease parameters for an ongoing outbreak.Six supervised classification methods (random forest, support vector machines, nearest neighbor with three decision rules, linear and flexible discriminant analysis) were used in identifying partial epidemic curves from six agent-based stochastic simulations of influenza epidemics. The accuracy of the methods was compared using a performance metric based on the McNemar test.The findings showed that: (1) assumptions made by the methods regarding the structure of an epidemic curve influences their performance i.e. methods with fewer assumptions perform best, (2) the performance of most methods is consistent across different individual-based networks for Seattle, Los Angeles and New York and (3) combining classifiers using a weighting approach does not guarantee better prediction.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.2202/1948-4690.1038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"30921592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 39

An imputation method for interval censored time-to-event with auxiliary information: analysis of the timing of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. 一种带辅助信息的间隔截尾事件时间归算方法——HIV母婴传播时间分析。

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-12-21 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1018

Elizabeth R Brown, Ying Qing Chen

{"title":"An imputation method for interval censored time-to-event with auxiliary information: analysis of the timing of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.","authors":"Elizabeth R Brown, Ying Qing Chen","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1018","url":null,"abstract":"The timing of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV is critical in understanding the dynamics of MTCT. It has a great implication to developing any effective treatment or prevention strategies for such transmissions. In this paper, we develop an imputation method to analyze the censored MTCT timing in presence of auxiliary information. Specifically, we first propose a statistical model based on the hazard functions of the MTCT timing to reflect three MTCT modes: in utero, during delivery and via breastfeeding, with different shapes of the baseline hazard that vary between infants. This model also allows that the majority of infants may be immuned from the MTCT of HIV. Then, the model is fitted by MCMC to explore marginal inferences via multiple imputation. Moreover, we propose a simple and straightforward approach to take into account the imperfect sensitivity in imputation step, and study appropriate censoring techniques to account for weaning. Our method is assessed by simulations, and applied to a large trial designed to assess the use of antibiotics in preventing MTCT of HIV.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.2202/1948-4690.1018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"30844576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Optimal Dynamic Policies for Influenza Management 流感管理的最优动态策略

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-10-12 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1020

Michael Ludkovski, Jarad Niemi

引用次数: 33

Nonparametric and Semiparametric Analysis of Current Status Data Subject to Outcome Misclassification. 对受结果误分类影响的现状数据进行非参数和半参数分析。

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-04-21

Victor G Sal Y Rosas, James P Hughes

引用次数: 0

Is There an Association between Levels of Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds and Badgers? 牛群和獾的牛结核病水平之间是否存在关联?

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-03-30 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1000

Christl A. Donnelly, Jim Hone

{"title":"Is There an Association between Levels of Bovine Tuberculosis in Cattle Herds and Badgers?","authors":"Christl A. Donnelly, Jim Hone","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1000","url":null,"abstract":"Wildlife diseases can have undesirable effects on wildlife, on livestock and people. Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is such a disease. This study derives and then evaluates relationships between the proportion of cattle herds with newly detected TB infection in a year and data on badgers, in parts of Britain.The relationships are examined using data from 10 sites which were randomly selected to be proactive culling sites in the UK Randomized Badger Culling Trial. The badger data are from the initial cull only and the cattle incidence data pre-date the initial badger cull.The analysis of the proportion of cattle herds with newly detected TB infection in a year, showed strong support for the model including significant frequency-dependent transmission between cattle herds and significant badger-to-herd transmission proportional to the proportion of M. bovis-infected badgers. Based on the model best fitting all the data, 3.4% of herds (95% CI: 0 6.7%) would be expected to have TB infection newly detected (i.e. to experience a TB herd breakdown) in a year, in the absence of transmission from badgers. Thus, the null hypothesis that at equilibrium herd-to-herd transmission is not sufficient to sustain TB in the cattle population, in the absence of transmission from badgers cannot be rejected (p=0.18). Omitting data from three sites in which badger carcase storage may have affected data quality; the estimate dropped to 1.3% of herds (95% CI: 0 6.5%) with p=0.76.The results demonstrate close positive relationships between bovine TB in cattle herds and badgers infectious with M. bovis. The results indicate that TB in cattle herds could be substantially reduced, possibly even eliminated, in the absence of transmission from badgers to cattle. The results are based on observational data and a small data set to provide weaker inference than from a large experimental study.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90288942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 25

The Impact of Secondary Condom Interventions on the Interpretation of Results from HIV Prevention Trials 二次安全套干预对HIV预防试验结果解释的影响

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-02-12 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1003

S. Shiboski, Michael Rosenblum, Nicholas P. Jewell

{"title":"The Impact of Secondary Condom Interventions on the Interpretation of Results from HIV Prevention Trials","authors":"S. Shiboski, Michael Rosenblum, Nicholas P. Jewell","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1003","url":null,"abstract":"Given the recent failure of a number of randomized trials to demonstrate effectiveness of proposed methods for prevention of sexual transmission of HIV, novel approaches to study design and analysis that address adherence and other post-randomization behaviors are of increasing interest. The inclusion of a mandatory condom use intervention in all randomized groups in such trials can significantly impact interpretation of study results, especially when levels of use observed in the study may differ from real world levels.We use quantitative examples and simulations to investigate this issue, focusing on effectiveness estimated by the standard intention to treat analysis approach. We also assess the application of recently developed methods for estimating the causal effect of treatment assignment, accounting for observed levels of condom use.Results show that observed levels of condom use may have substantial impacts on the conclusions drawn from standard analyses of prevention trials, with the most serious effects observed in studies with unblinded control groups. Causal estimation methods accounting for post-randomization behaviors can help clarify these impacts by focusing attention on effectiveness for controlled levels of condom use.Supplemental causal analyses that account for post-randomization condom use may provide useful information about possible efficacy that complement standard analyses. However, interpretation of results may be limited by the quality of available data on adherence behavior, and limited statistical power.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72717936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The Effect of Misspecifying Latent and Infectious Periods in Space-Time Epidemic Models 时空流行病模型中潜伏期和传染期指定错误的影响

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-01-06 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1006

B. Habibzadeh, R. Deardon

{"title":"The Effect of Misspecifying Latent and Infectious Periods in Space-Time Epidemic Models","authors":"B. Habibzadeh, R. Deardon","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1006","url":null,"abstract":"Individual level models (ILMs) are a class of models that can be applied to epidemic data to help in the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. Typically, these models are analyzed in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. Here, we test the effect of misspecifying the latent and infectious period in such a model. We do this by simulating data from a simple spatial ILM, and then fitting various misspecified models to the simulated data. The fitted models serve as a basis for investigating the effect of the misspecification of latent and infectious periods on model parameter estimates, as well as estimates of the basic reproduction number.Additionally, we analyze how a given preventative control strategy, optimized via simulation from a fitted model with assumed latent and infectious periods, is affected by such misspecification. We observe bias in the estimation of model parameters as latent and infectious periods become more misspecified, as well as a significant deviation in estimates of the basic reproduction number from those observed under the true model. Where the misspecification results in a higher basic reproduction number estimate, we also find that a more stringent control policy is required to achieve a given policy goal.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"423 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84933390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Probabilistic Record Linkage of Infection Records and Death Registrations: A Tool to Strengthen Surveillance 感染记录与死亡登记的概率记录联系:一种加强监测的工具

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-01-02 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1015

N. Potz, David Powell, T. Lamagni, R. Pebody, D. Bridger, G. Duckworth

{"title":"Probabilistic Record Linkage of Infection Records and Death Registrations: A Tool to Strengthen Surveillance","authors":"N. Potz, David Powell, T. Lamagni, R. Pebody, D. Bridger, G. Duckworth","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1015","url":null,"abstract":"An important element for many infectious disease surveillance programmes is their capacity to monitor not only the incidence of infection, but also the associated mortality. The ability to monitor post-infection mortality is dependent on outcome information being collected through the surveillance reports, or on infections being precisely specified on death certificates. For many infectious diseases, neither of these sources provides a reliable source of this information, so a method for linking infection and death registration data is needed. Given that surveillance data often lacks a unique patient identifier, a probabilistic record linkage method was developed to reliably bring together large-scale data sources to identify deaths following infection. The method was developed using Streptococcus pneumonia infection records but with wider applicability to other infectious disease surveillance programmes. Evaluation of the mechanism was undertaken by tracing patients through a central health service database. Results of the evaluation showed a positive predictive value of 97.7-99.8% for correctly identifying deaths following infection, and a negative predictive value of 90.2-98.0%. The successful application of probabilistic matching to link infections and death registrations paves the way for a new era in infectious disease surveillance in the UK, with its potential application to augment a wide array of ongoing surveillance programmes with information on patient outcome.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"507 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77827634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Increasing the Efficiency of Prevention Trials by Incorporating Baseline Covariates. 通过纳入基线变量提高预防试验的效率。

Statistical communications in infectious diseases Pub Date : 2010-01-01 DOI: 10.2202/1948-4690.1002

Min Zhang, Peter B Gilbert

{"title":"Increasing the Efficiency of Prevention Trials by Incorporating Baseline Covariates.","authors":"Min Zhang, Peter B Gilbert","doi":"10.2202/1948-4690.1002","DOIUrl":"10.2202/1948-4690.1002","url":null,"abstract":"Most randomized efficacy trials of interventions to prevent HIV or other infectious diseases have assessed intervention efficacy by a method that either does not incorporate baseline covariates, or that incorporates them in a non-robust or inefficient way. Yet, it has long been known that randomized treatment effects can be assessed with greater efficiency by incorporating baseline covariates that predict the response variable. Tsiatis et al. (2007) and Zhang et al. (2008) advocated a semiparametric efficient approach, based on the theory of Robins et al. (1994), for consistently estimating randomized treatment effects that optimally incorporates predictive baseline covariates, without any parametric assumptions. They stressed the objectivity of the approach, which is achieved by separating the modeling of baseline predictors from the estimation of the treatment effect. While their work adequately justifies implementation of the method for large Phase 3 trials (because its optimality is in terms of asymptotic properties), its performance for intermediate-sized screening Phase 2b efficacy trials, which are increasing in frequency, is unknown. Furthermore, the past work did not consider a right-censored time-to-event endpoint, which is the usual primary endpoint for a prevention trial. For Phase 2b HIV vaccine efficacy trials, we study finite-sample performance of Zhang et al.'s (2008) method for a dichotomous endpoint, and develop and study an adaptation of this method to a discrete right-censored time-to-event endpoint. We show that, given the predictive capacity of baseline covariates collected in real HIV prevention trials, the methods achieve 5-15% gains in efficiency compared to methods in current use. We apply the methods to the first HIV vaccine efficacy trial. This work supports implementation of the discrete failure time method for prevention trials.","PeriodicalId":74867,"journal":{"name":"Statistical communications in infectious diseases","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2997740/pdf/nihms168367.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"29530799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0