Inyoung Jun, Scott A Cohen, Sarah E Ser, Simone Marini, Robert J Lucero, Jiang Bian, Mattia Prosperi
{"title":"Optimizing Dynamic Antibiotic Treatment Strategies against Invasive Methicillin-Resistant <i>Staphylococcus Aureus</i> Infections using Causal Survival Forests and G-Formula on Statewide Electronic Health Record Data.","authors":"Inyoung Jun, Scott A Cohen, Sarah E Ser, Simone Marini, Robert J Lucero, Jiang Bian, Mattia Prosperi","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Developing models for individualized, time-varying treatment optimization from observational data with large variable spaces, e.g., electronic health records (EHR), is problematic because of inherent, complex bias that can change over time. Traditional methods such as the g-formula are robust, but must identify critical subsets of variables due to combinatorial issues. Machine learning approaches such as causal survival forests have fewer constraints and can provide fine-tuned, individualized counterfactual predictions. In this study, we aimed to optimize time-varying antibiotic treatment -identifying treatment heterogeneity and conditional treatment effects- against invasive methicillin-resistant <i>Staphylococcus Aureus</i> (MRSA) infections, using statewide EHR data collected in Florida, USA. While many previous studies focused on measuring the effects of the first empiric treatment (i.e., usually vancomycin), our study focuses on dynamic sequential treatment changes, comparing possible vancomycin switches with other antibiotics at clinically relevant time points, e.g., after obtaining a bacterial culture and susceptibility testing. Our study population included adult individuals admitted to the hospital with invasive MRSA. We collected demographic, clinical, medication, and laboratory information from the EHR for these patients. Then, we followed three sequential antibiotic choices (i.e., their empiric treatment, subsequent directed treatment, and final sustaining treatment), evaluating 30-day mortality as the outcome. We applied both causal survival forests and g-formula using different clinical intervention policies. We found that switching from vancomycin to another antibiotic improved survival probability, yet there was a benefit from initiating vancomycin compared to not using it at any time point. These findings show consistency with the empiric choice of vancomycin before confirmation of MRSA and shed light on how to manage switches on course. In conclusion, this application of causal machine learning on EHR demonstrates utility in modeling dynamic, heterogeneous treatment effects that cannot be evaluated precisely using randomized clinical trials.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"218 ","pages":"98-115"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10584043/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49686010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Py-Tetrad and RPy-Tetrad: A New Python Interface with R Support for Tetrad Causal Search.","authors":"Joseph D Ramsey, Bryan Andrews","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We give novel Python and R interfaces for the (Java) Tetrad project for causal modeling, search, and estimation. The Tetrad project is a mainstay in the literature, having been under consistent development for over 30 years. Some of its algorithms are now classics, like PC and FCI; others are recent developments. It is increasingly the case, however, that researchers need to access the underlying Java code from Python or R. Existing methods for doing this are inadequate. We provide new, up-to-date methods using the JPype Python-Java interface and the Reticulate Python-R interface, directly solving these issues. With the addition of some simple tools and the provision of working examples for both Python and R, using JPype and Reticulate to interface Python and R with Tetrad is straightforward and intuitive.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"223 ","pages":"40-51"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11316512/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141918282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fair Survival Time Prediction via Mutual Information Minimization.","authors":"Hyungrok Do, Yuxin Chang, Yoon Sang Cho, Padhraic Smyth, Judy Zhong","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Survival analysis is a general framework for predicting the time until a specific event occurs, often in the presence of censoring. Although this framework is widely used in practice, few studies to date have considered fairness for time-to-event outcomes, despite recent significant advances in the algorithmic fairness literature more broadly. In this paper, we propose a framework to achieve demographic parity in survival analysis models by minimizing the mutual information between predicted time-to-event and sensitive attributes. We show that our approach effectively minimizes mutual information to encourage statistical independence of time-to-event predictions and sensitive attributes. Furthermore, we propose four types of disparity assessment metrics based on common survival analysis metrics. Through experiments on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that by minimizing the dependence between the prediction and the sensitive attributes, our method can systematically improve the fairness of survival predictions and is robust to censoring.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"219 ","pages":"128-149"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11067550/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140861818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Typed Markers and Context for Clinical Temporal Relation Extraction.","authors":"Cheng Cheng, Jeremy C Weiss","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Reliable extraction of temporal relations from clinical notes is a growing need in many clinical research domains. Our work introduces typed markers to the task of clinical temporal relation extraction. We demonstrate that the addition of medical entity information to clinical text as tags with context sentences then input to a transformer-based architecture can outperform more complex systems requiring feature engineering and temporal reasoning. We propose several strategies of typed marker creation that incorporate entity type information at different granularities, with extensive experiments to test their effectiveness. Our system establishes the best result on I2B2, a clinical benchmark dataset for temporal relation extraction, with a F1 at 83.5% that provides a substantial 3.3% improvement over the previous best system.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"219 ","pages":"94-109"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10929572/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140112398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Somin Wadhwa, Jay DeYoung, Benjamin Nye, Silvio Amir, Byron C Wallace
{"title":"Jointly Extracting Interventions, Outcomes, and Findings from RCT Reports with LLMs.","authors":"Somin Wadhwa, Jay DeYoung, Benjamin Nye, Silvio Amir, Byron C Wallace","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Results from Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) establish the comparative effectiveness of interventions, and are in turn critical inputs for evidence-based care. However, results from RCTs are presented in (often unstructured) natural language articles describing the design, execution, and outcomes of trials; clinicians must manually extract findings pertaining to interventions and outcomes of interest from such articles. This onerous manual process has motivated work on (semi-)automating extraction of structured evidence from trial reports. In this work we propose and evaluate a text-to-text model built on instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) to jointly extract <i>Interventions</i>, <i>Outcomes</i>, and <i>Comparators</i> (ICO elements) from clinical abstracts, and infer the associated results reported. Manual (expert) and automated evaluations indicate that framing evidence extraction as a conditional generation task and fine-tuning LLMs for this purpose realizes considerable (~20 point absolute F1 score) gains over the previous SOTA. We perform ablations and error analyses to assess aspects that contribute to model performance, and to highlight potential directions for further improvements. We apply our model to a collection of published RCTs through mid-2022, and release a searchable database of structured findings: http://ico-relations.ebm-nlp.com.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"219 ","pages":"754-771"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12451563/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145133210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"EASL: A Framework for Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating ML Solutions in Clinical Healthcare Settings.","authors":"Eric Prince, Todd C Hankinson, Carsten Görg","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We introduce the Explainable Analytical Systems Lab (EASL) framework, an end-to-end solution designed to facilitate the development, implementation, and evaluation of clinical machine learning (ML) tools. EASL is highly versatile and applicable to a variety of contexts and includes resources for data management, ML model development, visualization and user interface development, service hosting, and usage analytics. To demonstrate its practical applications, we present the EASL framework in the context of a case study: designing and evaluating a deep learning classifier to predict diagnoses from medical imaging. The framework is composed of three modules, each with their own set of resources. The Workbench module stores data and develops initial ML models, the Canvas module contains a medical imaging viewer and web development framework, and the Studio module hosts the ML model and provides web analytics and support for conducting user studies. EASL encourages model developers to take a holistic view by integrating the model development, implementation, and evaluation into one framework, and thus ensures that models are both effective and reliable when used in a clinical setting. EASL contributes to our understanding of machine learning applied to healthcare by providing a comprehensive framework that makes it easier to develop and evaluate ML tools within a clinical setting.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"219 ","pages":"612-630"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11235083/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141581781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Causal Inference With Outcome-Dependent Missingness And Self-Censoring.","authors":"Jacob M Chen, Daniel Malinsky, Rohit Bhattacharya","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We consider missingness in the context of causal inference when the outcome of interest may be missing. If the outcome directly affects its own missingness status, i.e., it is \"self-censoring\", this may lead to severely biased causal effect estimates. Miao et al. [2015] proposed the shadow variable method to correct for bias due to self-censoring; however, verifying the required model assumptions can be difficult. Here, we propose a test based on a randomized incentive variable offered to encourage reporting of the outcome that can be used to verify identification assumptions that are sufficient to correct for both self-censoring and confounding bias. Concretely, the test confirms whether a given set of pre-treatment covariates is sufficient to block all backdoor paths between the treatment and outcome as well as all paths between the treatment and missingness indicator after conditioning on the outcome. We show that under these conditions, the causal effect is identified by using the treatment as a shadow variable, and it leads to an intuitive inverse probability weighting estimator that uses a product of the treatment and response weights. We evaluate the efficacy of our test and downstream estimator via simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"216 ","pages":"358-368"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11905187/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143627020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Karine Karine, Predrag Klasnja, Susan A Murphy, Benjamin M Marlin
{"title":"Assessing the Impact of Context Inference Error and Partial Observability on RL Methods for Just-In-Time Adaptive Interventions.","authors":"Karine Karine, Predrag Klasnja, Susan A Murphy, Benjamin M Marlin","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions (JITAIs) are a class of personalized health interventions developed within the behavioral science community. JITAIs aim to provide the right type and amount of support by iteratively selecting a sequence of intervention options from a pre-defined set of components in response to each individual's time varying state. In this work, we explore the application of reinforcement learning methods to the problem of learning intervention option selection policies. We study the effect of context inference error and partial observability on the ability to learn effective policies. Our results show that the propagation of uncertainty from context inferences is critical to improving intervention efficacy as context uncertainty increases, while policy gradient algorithms can provide remarkable robustness to partially observed behavioral state information.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"216 ","pages":"1047-1057"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10506656/pdf/nihms-1926373.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10309493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mehdi Azabou, Venkataraman Ganesh, Shantanu Thakoor, Chi-Heng Lin, Lakshmi Sathidevi, Ran Liu, M. Vaĺko, Petar Velickovic, Eva L. Dyer
{"title":"Half-Hop: A graph upsampling approach for slowing down message passing","authors":"Mehdi Azabou, Venkataraman Ganesh, Shantanu Thakoor, Chi-Heng Lin, Lakshmi Sathidevi, Ran Liu, M. Vaĺko, Petar Velickovic, Eva L. Dyer","doi":"10.48550/arXiv.2308.09198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2308.09198","url":null,"abstract":"Message passing neural networks have shown a lot of success on graph-structured data. However, there are many instances where message passing can lead to over-smoothing or fail when neighboring nodes belong to different classes. In this work, we introduce a simple yet general framework for improving learning in message passing neural networks. Our approach essentially upsamples edges in the original graph by adding \"slow nodes\" at each edge that can mediate communication between a source and a target node. Our method only modifies the input graph, making it plug-and-play and easy to use with existing models. To understand the benefits of slowing down message passing, we provide theoretical and empirical analyses. We report results on several supervised and self-supervised benchmarks, and show improvements across the board, notably in heterophilic conditions where adjacent nodes are more likely to have different labels. Finally, we show how our approach can be used to generate augmentations for self-supervised learning, where slow nodes are randomly introduced into different edges in the graph to generate multi-scale views with variable path lengths.","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"202 1","pages":"1341-1360"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45894268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Effective Meaningful Way to Evaluate Survival Models.","authors":"Shi-Ang Qi, Neeraj Kumar, Mahtab Farrokh, Weijie Sun, Li-Hao Kuan, Rajesh Ranganath, Ricardo Henao, Russell Greiner","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) - the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE - in particular, is better than several alternative methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":74504,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of machine learning research","volume":"202 ","pages":"28244-28276"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12396822/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144981837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}