Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-06-20eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1389617
Tarini Sudhakar, Ashna Bhansali, John Walkington, David Puelz
{"title":"The disutility of compartmental model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Tarini Sudhakar, Ashna Bhansali, John Walkington, David Puelz","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1389617","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1389617","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic, several forecasting models were released to predict the spread of the virus along variables vital for public health policymaking. Of these, the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model was the most common. In this paper, we investigated the forecasting performance of The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium SIR model. We considered the following daily outcomes: hospitalizations, ICU patients, and deaths. We evaluated the overall forecasting performance, highlighted some stark forecast biases, and considered forecast errors conditional on different pandemic regimes. We found that this model tends to <i>overforecast</i> over the longer horizons and when there is a surge in viral spread. We bolstered these findings by linking them to faults with the SIR framework itself.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11222405/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141536132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-06-19eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1379271
Lisa M McKenzie, William B Allshouse, Barbara Abrahams, Christine Tompkins
{"title":"Oil and gas development exposure and atrial fibrillation exacerbation: a retrospective study of atrial fibrillation exacerbation using Colorado's all payer claims dataset.","authors":"Lisa M McKenzie, William B Allshouse, Barbara Abrahams, Christine Tompkins","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1379271","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1379271","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Emerging risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and episodes (exacerbation), the most common and clinically significant cardiac arrhythmia, include air and noise pollution, both of which are emitted during oil and natural gas (O&G) well site development.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We evaluated AF exacerbation risk and proximity to O&G well site development by employing a novel data source and interrupted time-series design. We retrospectively followed 1,197 AF patients living within 1-mile of an O&G well site (at-risk of exposure) and 9,764 patients living >2 miles from any O&G well site (unexposed) for AF claims in Colorado's All Payer Claims Dataset before, during, and after O&G well site development. We calculated AF exacerbation risk with multi-failure survival analysis.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analysis of the total study population does not provide strong evidence of an association between AF exacerbation and proximity to O&G wells sites during (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.22) or after (HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.16) development. However, AF exacerbation risk differed by patient age and sex. In patients >80 years living within 0.39 miles (2,059 feet) of O&G well site development, AF exacerbation risk increased by 83% (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.25, 2.66) and emergency room visits for an AF event doubled (HR = 2.55, 95% CI: 1.50, 4.36) during development, with risk increasing with proximity. In female patients living within 0.39 miles of O&G well site development, AF exacerbation risk increased by 56% percent (95% CI: 1.13, 2.15) during development. AF exacerbation risk did not persist past the well development period. We did not observe increased AF exacerbation risk in younger or male patients.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>The prospect that proximity to O&G well site development, a significant noise and air pollution source, may increase AF exacerbation risk in older and female AF patients requires attention. These findings support appropriate patient education to help mitigate risk and development of mitigation strategies and regulations to protect the health of populations in O&G development regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11220195/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141499828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-06-17eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1368675
Fernando Gracia, Deyanira A Ramírez Navarro, Nicia E Ramírez Sánchez, Roberto Weiser, Alexander Parajeles-Vindas, Ligia I Portillo Rivera, Ericka López Torres, Luis A García Valle, Alfredo Sanabria-Castro, César Abdón López, Pahola Araujo, Maria J Ayerdis Zamora, Andrea Balmaceda-Meza, Aron Benzadon Cohen, Awilda Candelario Cueto, Diego Castillo, Romy Castro-Escobar, Karla Z Corea Urbina, Anyeri de Peña Rivas, Octavio Duarte Sotelo, Temís Enamorado Claros, José L Giroud Benítez, Karla Gracia, Mario Larreategui, Jorge A Martínez Cerrato, Josmarlin P Medina Báez, Carlos E Menjivar Samayoa, Gustavo Miranda-Loria, Priscilla Monterrey-Alvarez, Lilliam A Morales Arguello, Michelle Ortiz, Carlos D Pérez Baldioceda, Lizeth Pinilla Aguilar, Luis C Rodríguez Salinas, Virginia Rodríguez-Moreno, Sebastián Rojas-Chaves, Norbel Román-Garita, Biany Santos Pujols, Carlos Valderrama, Ivonne Van Sijtveld, Indhira Zabala Angeles, Victor M Rivera, Blas Armien
{"title":"Multiple sclerosis in Central America and Caribbean countries: frequency and clinical characterization of an emergent disease.","authors":"Fernando Gracia, Deyanira A Ramírez Navarro, Nicia E Ramírez Sánchez, Roberto Weiser, Alexander Parajeles-Vindas, Ligia I Portillo Rivera, Ericka López Torres, Luis A García Valle, Alfredo Sanabria-Castro, César Abdón López, Pahola Araujo, Maria J Ayerdis Zamora, Andrea Balmaceda-Meza, Aron Benzadon Cohen, Awilda Candelario Cueto, Diego Castillo, Romy Castro-Escobar, Karla Z Corea Urbina, Anyeri de Peña Rivas, Octavio Duarte Sotelo, Temís Enamorado Claros, José L Giroud Benítez, Karla Gracia, Mario Larreategui, Jorge A Martínez Cerrato, Josmarlin P Medina Báez, Carlos E Menjivar Samayoa, Gustavo Miranda-Loria, Priscilla Monterrey-Alvarez, Lilliam A Morales Arguello, Michelle Ortiz, Carlos D Pérez Baldioceda, Lizeth Pinilla Aguilar, Luis C Rodríguez Salinas, Virginia Rodríguez-Moreno, Sebastián Rojas-Chaves, Norbel Román-Garita, Biany Santos Pujols, Carlos Valderrama, Ivonne Van Sijtveld, Indhira Zabala Angeles, Victor M Rivera, Blas Armien","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1368675","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1368675","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a common neurological disease among white populations of European origin. Frequencies among Latin Americans continue to be studied, however, epidemiologic, and clinical characterization studies lack from Central American and Caribbean countries. Ethnicity in these countries is uniformly similar with a prevalent Mestizo population.</p><p><strong>Methods and results: </strong>Data from January 2014 to December 2019 from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Dominican Republic, and Aruba on demographic, clinical, MRI and phenotypic traits were determined in coordinated studies: ENHANCE, a population-based, retrospective, observational study on incidence and clinical characteristics, and from the subgroup with MS national registries (Aruba, Dominican Republic, Honduras, and Panama), data on prevalence, phenotypes and demographics. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), and therapeutic schemes were included. ENHANCE data from 758 patients disclosed 79.8% of Mestizo ethnicity; 72.4% female; median age at onset 31.0 years and 33.2 at diagnosis. The highest incidence rate was from Aruba, 2.3-3.5 × 100,000 inhabitants, and the lowest, 0.07-0.15 × 100,000, from Honduras. Crude prevalence rates per 100,000 inhabitants fluctuated from 27.3 (Aruba) to 1.0 (Honduras). Relapsing MS accounted for 87.4% of cases; EDSS <3.0 determined in 66.6% (mean disease duration: 9.1 years, SD ± 5.0); CSF oligoclonal bands 85.7%, and 87% of subjects hydroxyvitamin D deficient. Common initial therapies were interferon and fingolimod. Switching from interferon to fingolimod was the most common escalation step. The COVID-19 pandemic affected follow-up aspects of these studies.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This is the first study providing data on frequencies and clinical characteristics from 8 countries from the Central American and Caribbean region, addressing MS as an emergent epidemiologic disorder. More studies from these areas are encouraged.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11216161/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141478092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluation of cholera surveillance systems in Africa: a systematic review","authors":"Kyeng Mercy, Ganesh Pokhariyal, Noah Takah Fongwen, Lucy Kivuti-Bitok","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1353826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fepid.2024.1353826","url":null,"abstract":"Despite several interventions on the control of cholera, it still remains a significant public health problem in Africa. According to the World Health Organization, 251,549 cases and 4,180 deaths (CFR: 2.9%) were reported from 19 African countries in 2023. Tools exist to enhance the surveillance of cholera but there is limited evidence on their deployment and application. There is limited evidence on the harmonization of the deployment of tools for the evaluation of cholera surveillance. We systematically reviewed available literature on the deployment of these tools in the evaluation of surveillance systems in Africa.Three electronic databases (PubMed, Medline and Embase) were used to search articles published in English between January 2012 to May 2023. Grey literature was also searched using Google and Google Scholar. Only articles that addressed a framework used in cholera surveillance in Africa were included. The quality of articles was assessed using the appropriate tools. Data on the use of surveillance tools and frameworks were extracted from articles for a coherent synthesis on their deployment.A total of 13 records (5 frameworks and 8 studies) were fit for use for this study. As per the time of the study, there were no surveillance frameworks specific for the evaluation of surveillance systems of cholera in Africa, however, five frameworks for communicable diseases and public health events could be adapted for cholera surveillance evaluation. None (0%) of the studies evaluated capacities on cross border surveillance, multisectoral one health approach and linkage of laboratory networks to surveillance systems. All (100%) studies assessed surveillance attributes even though there was no synergy in the attributes considered even among studies with similar objectives. There is therefore the need for stakeholders to harmoniously identify a spectrum of critical parameters and attributes to guide the assessment of cholera surveillance system performance.","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141353247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-05-30eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1212114
Leah H Schinasi, Jourdyn A Lawrence
{"title":"Everyday discrimination and satisfaction with nature experiences.","authors":"Leah H Schinasi, Jourdyn A Lawrence","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1212114","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1212114","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>There is growing interest in creating public green spaces to promote health. Yet, discussions about these efforts often overlook how experiences of chronic discrimination-which may manifest as racism, sexism, or homophobia, and more-could undermine satisfaction with nature experiences.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using data from the 2018 wave of the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) General Social Survey (GSS), we quantified associations of frequency of everyday discrimination, operationalized using the Everyday Discrimination Scale (EDS, the primary independent variable), with respondents' perceptions of nature experiences and with their reported time spent in nature. Specifically, we quantified associations with the following three variables: (1) dissatisfaction with day-to-day experiences of nature, (2) not spending as much time as they would like in natural environments, and (3) usually spending at least one day per week in nature. We used survey-weighted robust Poisson models to estimate overall associations, and also stratified analyses by racial/ethnic and gender identity categories.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of 768 GSS respondents, 14% reported dissatisfaction with nature experiences, 36% reported not spending as much time as they would like in nature, and 33% reported that they did not spend at least one day per week in nature. The median non-standardized EDS, coded such that a higher value indicates greater frequency of discrimination, was 11 (interquartile range: 8, 15). Prevalence of reporting dissatisfaction with day-to-day experiences in nature was 7% higher in association with every one unit increase in EDS score above the median (PR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.11). The prevalence of reporting not spending as much time as one would like in nature was 2% higher for every unit increase in higher than median everyday discrimination frequency (PR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.05). Higher than median frequency in everyday discrimination was not associated with spending less than one day per week in nature. Race/ethnicity and gender identity did not modify associations.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Greater frequency of everyday discrimination is associated with less satisfaction with experiences in nature. This relationship could undermine efforts to promote health equity through green interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11169619/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141319165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-05-30eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1227856
Glory Masawa, Joanes Faustine Mboineki
{"title":"Assessing breast self-examination knowledge, attitude and practice as a secondary prevention of breast cancer among female undergraduates at the University of Dodoma: a protocol of analytical cross-sectional study.","authors":"Glory Masawa, Joanes Faustine Mboineki","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1227856","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1227856","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Breast cancer is a global disease affecting an enormous number of women worldwide and a primary cause of cancer-related deaths in women. In Tanzania, women's breast cancer is the second-ranked among all types of cancers, with an incidence of 15.9%. Despite the Breast Self Examination (BSE) being one of the secondary prevention of breast cancer and an important measure for early diagnosis of breast cancer, little is known whether women could practice routine BSE.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>The study aims to Assess breast self-examination (BSE) knowledge, attitude, and practice among female undergraduates at the University of Dodoma.</p><p><strong>Methodology: </strong>An institutionally-based analytical cross-sectional study will be carried out in the Dodoma region of Tanzania through a validated questionnaire. The study will involve 384 female undergraduate students aged 18 years. The data will be entered and analyzed in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 25. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and inferential statistics [Cross-tabulation, Chi-square (<i>χ</i> <sup>2</sup>), and Regression analysis] will be used.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The practice of BSE among women remains unsatisfactory, which is highly linked to the lack of BSE knowledge. The deficit knowledge is on how to perform BSE, the benefit of BSE, and the interval of doing BSE. Most of the women seem to possess a positive attitude towards BSE.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11169940/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141319164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-05-28eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1327218
Federica Nobile, Konstantina Dimakopoulou, Christofer Åström, Fabián Coloma, Payam Dadvand, Jeroen de Bont, Kees de Hoogh, Dorina Ibi, Klea Katsouyanni, Petter Ljungman, Erik Melén, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Regina Pickford, Johan Nilsson Sommar, Cathryn Tonne, Roel C H Vermeulen, Danielle Vienneau, Jelle J Vlaanderen, Kathrin Wolf, Evangelia Samoli, Massimo Stafoggia
{"title":"External exposome and all-cause mortality in European cohorts: the EXPANSE project.","authors":"Federica Nobile, Konstantina Dimakopoulou, Christofer Åström, Fabián Coloma, Payam Dadvand, Jeroen de Bont, Kees de Hoogh, Dorina Ibi, Klea Katsouyanni, Petter Ljungman, Erik Melén, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Regina Pickford, Johan Nilsson Sommar, Cathryn Tonne, Roel C H Vermeulen, Danielle Vienneau, Jelle J Vlaanderen, Kathrin Wolf, Evangelia Samoli, Massimo Stafoggia","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1327218","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1327218","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Many studies reported associations between long-term exposure to environmental factors and mortality; however, little is known on the combined effects of these factors and health. We aimed to evaluate the association between external exposome and all-cause mortality in large administrative and traditional adult cohorts in Europe.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from six administrative cohorts (Catalonia, Greece, Rome, Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands, totaling 27,913,545 subjects) and three traditional adult cohorts (CEANS-Sweden, EPIC-NL-the Netherlands, KORA-Germany, totaling 57,653 participants) were included. Multiple exposures were assigned at the residential addresses, and were divided into three <i>a priori</i> defined domains: (1) air pollution [fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC) and warm-season Ozone (warm-O<sub>3</sub>)]; (2) land/built environment (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-NDVI, impervious surfaces, and distance to water); (3) air temperature (cold- and warm-season mean and standard deviation). Each domain was synthesized through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), with the aim of explaining at least 80% of its variability. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were applied and the total risk of the external exposome was estimated through the Cumulative Risk Index (CRI). The estimates were adjusted for individual- and area-level covariates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>More than 205 million person-years at risk and more than 3.2 million deaths were analyzed. In single-component models, IQR increases of the first principal component of the air pollution domain were associated with higher mortality [HRs ranging from 1.011 (95% CI: 1.005-1.018) for the Rome cohort to 1.076 (1.071-1.081) for the Swedish cohort]. In contrast, lower levels of the first principal component of the land/built environment domain, pointing to reduced vegetation and higher percentage of impervious surfaces, were associated with higher risks. Finally, the CRI of external exposome increased mortality for almost all cohorts. The associations found in the traditional adult cohorts were generally consistent with the results from the administrative ones, albeit without reaching statistical significance.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Various components of the external exposome, analyzed individually or in combination, were associated with increased mortality across European cohorts. This sets the stage for future research on the connections between various exposure patterns and human health, aiding in the planning of healthier cities.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11165119/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141307559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring the dynamics of monkeypox transmission with data-driven methods and a deterministic model","authors":"Haridas K. Das","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1334964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fepid.2024.1334964","url":null,"abstract":"Mpox (formerly monkeypox) is an infectious disease that spreads mostly through direct contact with infected animals or people's blood, bodily fluids, or cutaneous or mucosal lesions. In light of the global outbreak that occurred in 2022–2023, in this paper, we analyzed global Mpox univariate time series data and provided a comprehensive analysis of disease outbreaks across the world, including the USA with Brazil and three continents: North America, South America, and Europe. The novelty of this study is that it delved into the Mpox time series data by implementing the data-driven methods and a mathematical model concurrently—an aspect not typically addressed in the existing literature. The study is also important because implementing these models concurrently improved our predictions' reliability for infectious diseases.We proposed a traditional compartmental model and also implemented deep learning models (1D- convolutional neural network (CNN), long-short term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), hybrid CNN-LSTM, and CNN-BiLSTM) as well as statistical time series models: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing on the Mpox data. We also employed the least squares method fitting to estimate the essential epidemiological parameters in the proposed deterministic model.The primary finding of the deterministic model is that vaccination rates can flatten the curve of infected dynamics and influence the basic reproduction number. Through the numerical simulations, we determined that increased vaccination among the susceptible human population is crucial to control disease transmission. Moreover, in case of an outbreak, our model showed the potential for epidemic control by adjusting the key epidemiological parameters, namely the baseline contact rate and the proportion of contacts within the human population. Next, we analyzed data-driven models that contribute to a comprehensive understanding of disease dynamics in different locations. Additionally, we trained models to provide short-term (eight-week) predictions across various geographical locations, and all eight models produced reliable results.This study utilized a comprehensive framework to investigate univariate time series data to understand the dynamics of Mpox transmission. The prediction showed that Mpox is in its die-out situation as of July 29, 2023. Moreover, the deterministic model showed the importance of the Mpox vaccination in mitigating the Mpox transmission and highlighted the significance of effectively adjusting key epidemiological parameters during outbreaks, particularly the contact rate in high-risk groups.","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141112394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-05-01eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1353083
Moon J Lee, Louay Almidani, Laura Samuel, Bonnielin K Swenor, Joshua R Ehrlich, Varshini Varadaraj
{"title":"Vision impairment and food insecurity in the national health and aging trends study.","authors":"Moon J Lee, Louay Almidani, Laura Samuel, Bonnielin K Swenor, Joshua R Ehrlich, Varshini Varadaraj","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1353083","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1353083","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Vision impairment (VI) may further exacerbate older adults' vulnerability to experiencing food insecurity and may be a unique and important target for policies addressing access to nutritional food. The purpose of this study is to determine the association of VI in older adults with food insecurity.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This is a cross-sectional analysis of round 11 (2021) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a nationally representative survey of U.S. Medicare beneficiaries ages 65 and older. Participants include 2,815 older adults with complete data on at least one objective measure of vision (distance, near or contrast sensitivity) and food insecurity. Food insecurity was assessed using a previously developed indicator of food insecurity in NHATS. VI was defined as binocular visual acuity (VA) worse than 0.3 logMAR (Snellen equivalent 20/40) at distance or its near equivalent, or contrast sensitivity (CS) worse than 1.55 logUnits. Continuous VI measures included distance and near VA (per 0.1 logMAR), and CS (per 0.1 logCS).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Participants were majority White (82%) and female (55%), and 3% had food insecurity. Older adults with any VI had a greater prevalence of food insecurity than adults without VI (5.0% vs. 2.0%, <i>p</i> < 0.05). In fully adjusted regression analyses, individuals with any VI experienced double the odds of food insecurity than individuals without VI (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2-3.6). Distance VI (measured continuously) was associated with 1.2 times the odds of food insecurity (OR = 1.2; 95% CI: 1.0-1.3, per 0.1 logMAR). All other vision measures trended towards higher odds of food insecurity, though not statistically significant.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>Older adults with VI experience higher rates of food insecurity than their peers. Interventions to improve food security should be targeted towards addressing the specific barriers faced by visually impaired older adults.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11094228/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140946546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frontiers in epidemiologyPub Date : 2024-04-26eCollection Date: 2024-01-01DOI: 10.3389/fepid.2024.1379256
Holly H Matulewicz, Divya Vohra, Willow Crawford-Crudell, John E Oeltmann, Patrick K Moonan, Melanie M Taylor, Chandra Couzens, Andy Weiss
{"title":"Representativeness of a national, probability-based panel survey of COVID-19 isolation practices-United States, 2020-2022.","authors":"Holly H Matulewicz, Divya Vohra, Willow Crawford-Crudell, John E Oeltmann, Patrick K Moonan, Melanie M Taylor, Chandra Couzens, Andy Weiss","doi":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1379256","DOIUrl":"10.3389/fepid.2024.1379256","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) received surveillance data on how many people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, but there was little information about what individuals did to mitigate transmission. To fill the information gap, we conducted an online, probability-based survey among a nationally representative panel of adults living in the United States to better understand the behaviors of individuals following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Given the low response rates commonly associated with panel surveys, we assessed how well the survey data aligned with CDC surveillance data from March, 2020 to March, 2022. We used CDC surveillance data to calculate monthly aggregated COVID-19 case counts and compared these to monthly COVID-19 case counts captured by our survey during the same period. We found high correlation between our overall survey data estimates and monthly case counts reported to the CDC during the analytic period (<i>r</i>: +0.94; <i>p</i> < 0.05). When stratified according to demographic characteristics, correlations remained high. These correlations strengthened our confidence that the panel survey participants were reflective of the cases reported to CDC and demonstrated the potential value of panel surveys to inform decision making.</p>","PeriodicalId":73083,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in epidemiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11082340/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140912169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}