Acta Geophysica最新文献_第5页

Nonlinear analysis of groundwater levels: investigating trends and the impact of El Niño on groundwater drought in a southern region of India 地下水水位的非线性分析：调查趋势和El Niño对印度南部地区地下水干旱的影响

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01582-w

Kondeti Poojitha, Basavanand M. Dodamani

{"title":"Nonlinear analysis of groundwater levels: investigating trends and the impact of El Niño on groundwater drought in a southern region of India","authors":"Kondeti Poojitha, Basavanand M. Dodamani","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01582-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01582-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The expansion of groundwater irrigation and the cultivation of water-intensive sugarcane, combined with low rainfall, have exacerbated groundwater depletion and intensified droughts in the semi-arid Upper Krishna basin, India. This study employs an iterative singular spectrum analysis (iterative SSA) approach to impute missing groundwater level data from 25 monitoring wells. Cross-validation results show that iterative SSA effectively preserves the overall data structure when missing data was random, achieving good performance metrics with NSE > 0.79, <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> > 0.8 and RMSE < 0.88 under optimal parameters (<i>L</i> = 12 and <i>k</i> = 5). The reconstructed groundwater levels were then used to identify nonlinear trends with a 180-month smoothing SSA window and to investigate the impact of strong El Niño events on groundwater drought through cross-wavelet transform (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) analyses between 1983 and 2017. The nonlinear trends revealed short-term deviations in groundwater levels during 1991–2000, 2002–2003, and 2015–2017. These deviations were corroborated by significant cross-wavelet power and high wavelet coherence between the Niño 3.4 SST Index and groundwater drought, particularly under low rainfall conditions, indicating stress on the region’s groundwater system. Although the study effectively captures the nonlinear nature of groundwater levels and the influence of climate variability on drought, the complexity of the groundwater system in the region persists due to physical water scarcity and high groundwater extraction for irrigation. This study highlights the importance of imputing missing data and applying nonlinear trend and wavelet analyses to detect short-term deviations caused by severe droughts, driven by strong El Niño events and high irrigation demands.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"4533 - 4550"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial evaluation of flood susceptibility on a national scale across Ghana using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and evidential belief function: an ensemble approach 基于模糊层次分析法和证据信念函数的加纳国家尺度洪水易感性空间评价

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01580-y

Samuel Yaw Danso, Yi Ma, Isaac Yeboah Addo

{"title":"Spatial evaluation of flood susceptibility on a national scale across Ghana using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and evidential belief function: an ensemble approach","authors":"Samuel Yaw Danso, Yi Ma, Isaac Yeboah Addo","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01580-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01580-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Insights conveyed by flood susceptibility maps are critical to lessen the devastating impacts of floods. This research seeks to create an ensemble modeling method using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and evidential belief function (EBF) for flood susceptibility classification. The proposed FAHP-EBF method has scarcely been utilized in flood susceptibility mapping, particularly for national-scale assessments. Therefore, through multicollinearity diagnostics, a host of conditioning parameters including elevation, slope, flow accumulation, curvature (plan), distance to rivers, aspect, topographic wetness index, rainfall, and land use/land cover were employed for investigation across Ghana. Furthermore, flood inventory data, essential for building and validating models, were generated using a modified normalized difference water index. Results indicate that a significant share (43.3%) of Ghana’s land is within a low flood susceptibility zone. Additionally, approximately 5%, 10%, 16%, and 26% of the country fall within a very high, high, moderate, and very low susceptibility category, respectively. Areas that are extremely prone to floods include the southwestern part, sections along the coast, and lands along major rivers. In terms of geographical distribution, the Western, Central, Western North, and Savannah regions had greater percentages of land exposed in extremely high areas. The map’s accuracy value of 0.848 based on the area under the curve demonstrated a very good performance. The finalized susceptibility map provides flood management authorities with a blueprint for forecasting and planning interventions in highly susceptible zones and regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"4511 - 4531"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A precise time–depth conversion method for coal seam based on machine learning and seismic velocity inversion 基于机器学习和地震速度反演的煤层精确时深转换方法

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01592-8

Hang Yu, Haibo Wang, Leibing Wu, Tongjun Chen

{"title":"A precise time–depth conversion method for coal seam based on machine learning and seismic velocity inversion","authors":"Hang Yu, Haibo Wang, Leibing Wu, Tongjun Chen","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01592-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01592-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Time–depth conversion is a crucial step in 3D seismic interpretation of coalfields. Fast and accurate time–depth conversion is essential for ensuring safe and efficient coal production. However, conventional methods often struggle to balance accuracy with efficiency, which makes it difficult to achieve good application results in the coalfield. To address this problem, we proposed a new coal seam time–depth conversion method based on machine learning and seismic velocity inversion. Firstly, a high-precision time-domain layer of the coal seam floor was obtained. Subsequently, the average velocity of the coal seam floor was calculated from boreholes. Following this, post-stack seismic inversion was performed to obtain velocity volumes, and the velocity volumes were subjected to median filtering. Next, machine learning models were trained using the average velocity of the coal seam floor, extracted from the inverted velocity volumes processed with different median filter windows, and two-way travel times of the coal seam floor as inputs, with actual coal seam floor elevations as the outputs. Finally, different machine learning methods and conventional methods were compared and analyzed for time–depth conversion in coalfield. The results indicate that the Bayesian-SVR model achieved the highest accuracy in time–depth conversion, with a maximum absolute error of only 2.86 m and a mean absolute error of 1.79 m at verification boreholes. In summary, this study introduces a machine learning-based coal seam time–depth conversion method that does not require complex velocity models, enhancing efficiency while maintaining high accuracy, which holds significant importance for advancing intelligent coal mining and achieving transparent working faces.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"4059 - 4073"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Natural radioactivity and dose assessment in coal samples collected from Sulaymaniyah city in Iraqi Kurdistan region 伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区苏莱曼尼亚市煤炭样本的天然放射性和剂量评估

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01593-7

Kamal Omer Abdullah

{"title":"Natural radioactivity and dose assessment in coal samples collected from Sulaymaniyah city in Iraqi Kurdistan region","authors":"Kamal Omer Abdullah","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01593-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01593-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, a total of eleven coal samples were collected from different locations in the Sulaymaniyah city markets to determine three natural radioactivity concentrations (<sup>226</sup>Ra, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>40</sup>K). The measurements were performed using a High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detector. The findings revealed that the mean activity concentrations for <sup>226</sup>Ra, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>40</sup>K were 2.2 ± 0.3, 1.1 ± 0.3, and 255.3 ± 5.0 Bq kg<sup>−1</sup>, respectively. The maximum activities of <sup>226</sup>Ra and <sup>232</sup>Th were 4.7 ± 1.3 and 2.1 ± 0.6 Bq kg<sup>−1</sup> in grape trees from Ukraine, respectively, while the maximum activity of <sup>40</sup>K was 387.0 ± 7.1 Bq kg<sup>−1</sup> in the oak tree from Penjween, Iraq. Based on the study’s results, the levels of natural radionuclides in each sample were below the worldwide accepted limit of 35, 30, and 400 Bq kg<sup>−1</sup> for <sup>226</sup>Ra, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>40</sup>K as reported by UNSCEAR. The radiological hazard indices such as radium equivalent (Ra<sub>eq</sub>), absorbed dose rate (D), external hazard index (H<sub>ex</sub>), and gamma index (I<i>γ</i>) were also below the international recommended limits according to UNSCEAR and IAEA. The findings showed that all coal samples under investigation are safe for an applications in Sulaymaniyah due to low concentrations of natural radioactivity in the samples.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 4","pages":"3425 - 3430"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145143463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reduction of the channel junction scour using a bed sill: a 3D numerical study 利用床槛减少河道结冲：三维数值研究

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01578-6

Abhishek K. Pandey, Kaushik Balasubramanian, Bidhan Kumar Sahu

{"title":"Reduction of the channel junction scour using a bed sill: a 3D numerical study","authors":"Abhishek K. Pandey, Kaushik Balasubramanian, Bidhan Kumar Sahu","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01578-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01578-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Open-channel junctions are distinguished by prominent scour zones, where bed scouring modifies river morphology, potentially affecting hydraulic structures and undermining the stability of channel banks and beds. Despite investigations into the causes of channel junction scour, studies on mitigation measures remain limited. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of a bed sill in mitigating scour at a right-angled open-channel junction, utilizing three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling and simulating sediment transport in both bed-load and suspended-load forms. The predictive accuracy of the model is validated through comparison with laboratory data reported in the literature. To address junction scour, a bed sill is installed at various downstream locations from the junction. Comparative analyses indicate that the efficacy of scour reduction is heavily dependent on the bed sill’s placement. Specifically, placing the bed sill downstream of the flow contraction region significantly reduces the near-bed secondary currents from the channel centerline towards the outer bank, leading to decreased bed shear stress and consequently less scouring. Conversely, positioning the bed sill within the flow contraction region proves ineffective in reducing scour. These findings contribute to a better understanding of junction scour mitigation strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"4495 - 4509"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Study on new method of freezing–thawing water replenishment and its mechanical properties for seasonally frozen soil 季节性冻土冻融补水新方法及其力学性能研究

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01566-w

Miao Wang, Yanxiu Guo, Shangjiu Meng, Anshuang Su, Hailong Mu, Mingwei Hai

{"title":"Study on new method of freezing–thawing water replenishment and its mechanical properties for seasonally frozen soil","authors":"Miao Wang, Yanxiu Guo, Shangjiu Meng, Anshuang Su, Hailong Mu, Mingwei Hai","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01566-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01566-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The shear strength index of seasonally frozen soil is significantly affected by the freezing–thawing and water replenishment methods. To simulate the actual freeze–thaw and water replenishment process in seasonally frozen soil, a new method called the unidirectional freeze–thaw and natural water replenishment method was proposed. A test device was developed to facilitate this method. By using soil as the medium for water migration, the temperature change and water migration characteristics during the freeze–thaw process were investigated. The study also considered the influence of the samples' water content and the gradient between the water content of the test samples and the water replenishment soil layer. The changes in the soil stress–strain curve, static strength, and shear strength index under freeze–thaw were analyzed based on triaxial tests. The results revealed that the temperature change during the test process can be divided into six stages: rapid cooling, slow cooling, temperature stability, slow heating, continuous phase change around 0 ℃, and positive temperature stability. After freeze–thaw, the sample water content without gradient increased by approximately 0.6%, while the sample water content with a gradient increased by about 1.5%. However, the distribution characteristics of the water content were different. The static strength, cohesive force, and internal friction angles were all lower after freeze–thaw under different water content conditions. The maximum static strength and cohesion decreased by approximately 50% and 60%, respectively, under freeze–thaw, while the internal friction angle showed a slight decrease. The new freeze–thaw and natural water supplement method can serve as a basis for selecting the shear strength index of seasonally frozen soil.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"4479 - 4494"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing vegetation dynamics and influencing factors in Northwest China’s Arid Regions: a spatiotemporal analysis using NDVI (2000–2020) 2000-2020年中国西北干旱区植被动态及其影响因素的NDVI时空分析

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01576-8

Haocheng Ke, Liang Liang, Menghan Tian, Maolin Wang, Chunhui Yuan, Yayu Gao

{"title":"Assessing vegetation dynamics and influencing factors in Northwest China’s Arid Regions: a spatiotemporal analysis using NDVI (2000–2020)","authors":"Haocheng Ke, Liang Liang, Menghan Tian, Maolin Wang, Chunhui Yuan, Yayu Gao","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01576-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01576-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Vegetation is an essential component of the earth's ecosystem. Exploring the dynamic changes of NDVI and its influencing factors in the arid regions in Northwest China (NWAC) is of great significance to the restoration and management of the regional ecological environment. In order to study the law of NDVI change and its driving mechanism in the NWAC, MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2020 were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics and trends of NWAC NDVI by using Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall significance test, Hurst index and correlation analysis. Based on the analysis of NDVI, meteorological data and underlying surface data of NWAC from 2000 to 2020, the relationship between NDVI and driving factors was revealed by means of geographical detectors. The results indicate that the NDVI in the NWAC shows a significant upward trend (growth rate of 1.5 × 10<sup>3</sup> per year). Approximately 10% of the NWAC was ecologically improved, while 3% was degraded. In addition, the future changes of NDVI in the NWAC are characterized by anti-persistence. Precipitation (<i>q</i> = 0.502) is the main factor affecting NDVI in the NWAC, and the interaction with other factors has the strongest effect on the spatial differentiation of NDVI in the whole region. The results of this study can help to better understand the intricate mechanism of vegetation change, and provide a scientific foundation for future vegetation restoration and rational implementation of ecological projects in the NWAC.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 4","pages":"3405 - 3424"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145142795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis on the seismogenic processes of East Anatolian Fault Zone and surrounding areas constrained by horizontal shifts in disturbing potential and modeling the density contrasts 东安纳托利亚断裂带及其周边受扰动势水平位移约束的孕震过程分析及密度对比模拟

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01579-5

Bülent Oruç, Mustafa Berkay Doğan, İlkin Özsöz, Emir Balkan, Sunay Mutlu, Begüm Koca, Aybala Büşra Çalışkur

{"title":"Analysis on the seismogenic processes of East Anatolian Fault Zone and surrounding areas constrained by horizontal shifts in disturbing potential and modeling the density contrasts","authors":"Bülent Oruç, Mustafa Berkay Doğan, İlkin Özsöz, Emir Balkan, Sunay Mutlu, Begüm Koca, Aybala Büşra Çalışkur","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01579-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01579-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes on February 6, 2023, with magnitudes of 7.7 and 7.6, are considered the century's worst disaster in Türkiye. It was shown by these two main shocks that the East Anatolian Fault Zone not only often causes destructive earthquakes but also has a focus depth that is only about 10 km deep in the upper crust. The strength of the upper crust plays a crucial role in influencing the structures and fault zones of the upper crustal domain during seismic activities. This research explores the crustal deformation and structures of the East Anatolian Fault Zone and surrounding regions through gravity data and earthquake analysis. We began by calculating the radially averaged logarithmic amplitude spectrum of WGM12 (World Gravity Map 2012) isostatic residual gravity anomalies to determine the average depths of the deeper interfaces and the critical cut-off wavenumbers for filtering. The average depths of the Conrad discontinuity and the basement were determined to be 18 and 6.6 km, respectively, from the linear segments of the spectrum. A linear inversion method, specifically the weighted and damped minimum norm inverse solution, was applied to estimate density contrasts down to the Conrad depth. The present study thus carries out two-dimensional density contrast models of the East Anatolian Fault Zone and surrounding area in order to elucidate the structural discontinuities of the region. Furthermore, virtual deformation of the upper crust was mapped using horizontal shifts of the disturbing potential.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"3753 - 3764"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11600-025-01579-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stochastic model identification of GNSS time series using multivariate NNLS-VCE 基于多元NNLS-VCE的GNSS时间序列随机模型识别

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01577-7

Forouzan Ghasser-Mobarakeh, Behzad Voosoghi, Alireza Amiri-Simkooei

{"title":"Stochastic model identification of GNSS time series using multivariate NNLS-VCE","authors":"Forouzan Ghasser-Mobarakeh, Behzad Voosoghi, Alireza Amiri-Simkooei","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01577-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01577-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Identifying the correct stochastic model in GNSS time series is essential to study geophysical parameters such as site velocities, and hence enhancing their accuracy. The rate uncertainty is a critical aspect in GNSS time series analysis. The variance component estimation (VCE) methods commonly utilize unconstrained estimation principles. Simulating 1000-time series for 4 different noise combinations with 10 years’ time span, we have investigated the performance of non-negative least squares VCE (NNLS-VCE) method for identifying an appropriate noise model. Our results are provided for both univariate and multivariate analysis. As the noise model's complexity increases, the significance of employing multivariate analysis is prominent in contrast to univariate analysis. After thorough analysis, we have determined that treating the false-positive model as a stochastic model in time series yields significant insights. Specifically, if the accumulative spectral index is lower than the true value, it results in an underestimation of the rate uncertainty. Conversely, if the index is higher than the actual value, it leads to an overestimation. Additionally, we observed that as the noise model complexity increases, the number of false-positive models also increases. However, the implementation of multivariate analysis mitigates this increase, offering a more realistic and reliable approach. In case of four distinct noise models, the detection power percentages of 98.5%, 90.5%, 69.5%, 29.3% of univariate analysis increased to 99.5%, 99.8%, 88.4% and 83.7% for multivariate analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"3737 - 3752"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144894011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Less and thinner ice: seven decades of change in the ice cover of temperate lakes (Central Europe, Poland) 冰越来越少，越来越薄：温带湖泊冰覆盖的70年变化（中欧，波兰）

IF 2.1 4区地球科学

Acta Geophysica Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01583-9

Yuting Zhu, Mariusz Ptak, Wentao Dong, Jiang Sun, Renyi Xu, Senlin Zhu, Mariusz Sojka

{"title":"Less and thinner ice: seven decades of change in the ice cover of temperate lakes (Central Europe, Poland)","authors":"Yuting Zhu, Mariusz Ptak, Wentao Dong, Jiang Sun, Renyi Xu, Senlin Zhu, Mariusz Sojka","doi":"10.1007/s11600-025-01583-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11600-025-01583-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ice cover is one of the most important parameters of lakes as it impacts many physical and biogeochemical processes beneath the ice. Understanding the temporal trends in ice cover duration and thickness is of great significance in terms of sustainable lake management in an era of climate change. In this study, lake ice observation data from the past seven decades (1954–2023) for four lakes in Central Europe, Poland, were collected and used for this purpose. The results showed that for all lakes, ice-on was postponed, delayed by 1.8 days per decade, and ice-off tended to be earlier by 3.6 days per decade. In this regard, ice cover duration reduced 6.5 days per decade, on average. Specifically, ice cover duration decreased in 40, 32, 40, and 45% for the four lakes, respectively. Moreover, for all lakes, the maximum thickness of ice cover decreased at an average rate of 3.3 cm per decade. Specifically, the maximum ice cover thickness decreased in 42, 47, 68, and 59% for the four lakes, respectively. Air temperature parameters (e.g., averaged air temperature during the ice cover duration and winter) are important controlling factors on lake ice cover, both for ice cover duration and the maximum thickness, while wind and rainfall play a minor role. With the rise of air temperature, lakes will have less and thinner ice cover. Mitigation measures shall be taken to reduce the impact of climate warming on lake ice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":6988,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geophysica","volume":"73 5","pages":"4467 - 4478"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0