美国气候变化期刊(英文)最新文献

{"title":"Rainfall Variability under Present and Future Climate Scenarios Using the Rossby Center Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Model","authors":"Jane W. Mugo, F. Opijah, J. Ngaina, F. Karanja, M. Mburu","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.93016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.93016","url":null,"abstract":"This study sought to determine the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall under past and future climate scenarios. The data used comprised station-based monthly gridded rainfall data sourced from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and monthly model outputs from the Fourth Edition of the Rossby Centre (RCA4) Regional Climate Model (RCM), which has scaled-down nine GCMs for Africa. Although the 9 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by the RCA4 model was not very good at simulating rainfall in Kenya, the ensemble of the 9 models performed better and could be used for further studies. The ensemble of the models was thus bias-corrected using the scaling method to reduce the error; lower values of bias and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) were recorded when compared to the uncorrected models. The bias-corrected ensemble was used to study the spatial and temporal behaviour of rainfall under baseline (1971 to 2000) and future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (2021 to 2050). An insignificant trend was noted under the baseline condition during the March-May (MAM) and October-December (OND) rainfall seasons. A positive significant trend at 5% level was noted under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in some stations during both MAM and OND seasons. The increase in rainfall was attributed to global warming due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Results on the spatial variability of rainfall indicate the spatial extent of rainfall will increase under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario when compared to the baseline; the increase is higher under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Overall rainfall was found to be highly variable in space and time, there is a need to invest in the early dissemination of weather forecasts to help farmers adequately prepare in case of unfavorable weather. Concerning the expected increase in rainfall in the future, policymakers need to consider the results of this study while preparing mitigation strategies against the effects of changing rainfall patterns.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47640727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of Climate Change on Marine Organisms","authors":"D. Assan, F. K. Kuebutornye, U. Mustapha, Huapu Chen, Guangli Li","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.93013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.93013","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming has become a global challenge having dire consequences on different aspects of the environment due to the melting of glaciers, excess carbon dioxide (CO2), and excess warming of water bodies among others. At a faster pace recently, climate change is affecting the marine environment, causing numerous alterations. Here, we address its consequences and the numerous alterations, which are more vital for researchers and global agencies to advocate more on why it’s essential to lessen the impact of climate change. Our review showed that the impacts of climate change are articulated at several stages of the marine ecosystem where it affects the inhabitants and their habitats. In response to climate change (ocean warming) marine species shift their latitudinal range to find suitable conditions leading to the redistribution of species. In addition, we found that growth reduction, sub-optimal behaviors, and reduced immune-competence of marine organisms, are as a result of thermal stress due to climate change. Also, the periodic changes in temperature above or below the optimum have a meditative reproductive effect on marine species, including fish. Finally, we discovered that due to higher water temperatures, several diseases showcase greater virulence in the sense that the marine species become less resistant to these diseases due to stress, increased virulence stimuli, or increased transmission.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43775818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Markers for Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Social, Biological and Ecological Systems: A Review","authors":"R. Upadhyay","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.93012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.93012","url":null,"abstract":"Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers; coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor; it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48913409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors Influencing Cassava Farmers’ Climate Change Risk Perception in Anambra State, Nigeria","authors":"C. Emenyonu, C. C. Eze, O. U. Ejike","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.93014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.93014","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzed the determinants of climate change risk perception among cassava farmers in Anambra state, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to describe the socio-economic characteristics of cassava farmers in the area and to examine the farmers’ climate change risk perception through examining their perception of the various sources of climate change risk. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select one hundred and sixty (160) respondents who were selected from 40 communities and 8 Local Government Areas from across the four Agricultural Zones of the state. Data were obtained through the administration of structured questionnaire to the respondents. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, weighted mean obtained from Likert scale, and Tobit regression model. The results of the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers showed that majority of the farmers had formal education and only 15.19% had no formal education, 56.74% of the farmers had 11 years of farming experience. The farmers’ risk perception showed that the most important risk factors perceived by cassava farmers in their farm were flooding/erosion, increased frequency and intensity of rainfall and incidence of pest and diseases. The factors that influenced the farmers’ level of risk perception included age, level of education, access to extension agents and access to climate change information. Based on the findings of cassava farmers’ level of risk perception, it was inferred that the farmers have reasonable perception of climate change risk. It was therefore recommended from the findings of this research that there is need for effective and functional extension services and provision of enabling environment and policies that will help boost the socio-economic welfare of farmers as this will significantly help in the management of climate change risk in the study area.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41384253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Weather Services for Rural Fishing and Farming Communities in Uganda.","authors":"Patrick Kibaya,&nbsp;Ian G Munabi,&nbsp;Frank Annor,&nbsp;John Baptist Kaddu","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.92011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.92011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate-related hazards like drought are associated with loss of life and lead to food insecurity in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Food insecurity, which affects more than 220 million sub-Saharan Africans, manifests as starvation that leads to more than 50% of children under the age of 5-years presenting as underweight for age in many communities on the continent. This household survey reports the means by which rural fisher folk and farming communities in Uganda gained access to early warning meteorological information. The survey covered five districts across different climatic zones in Uganda and recruited a total of 405 respondents with an average age of 41 years (SD 16). Economic activity was used to categorize each of the five districts into farming (crops and livestock) and fishing areas. The results showed that most respondents were unaware of drought as one of the climate-related hazards. Compared to respondents from the fishing communities, the respondents from farming communities were more likely to be receiving weather-related information (<i>P</i>-value < 0.01). There were 204/405 (50.37%) female respondents who, compared to male respondents, were less likely to have access to weather information, less willing to pay for weather information, and less likely to have and or own devices like a radio for receiving weather information. The survey demonstrated that: 1) there were gaps in the knowledge about climate-related hazards, 2) there is a need for additional interventions targeting fisher folk communities access timely weather information, and 3) introducing user paid access to weather information may increase climate-related gender-based disparities.</p>","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10208246/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9579212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal Analysis of Atmospheric Changes in Hudson Bay during 1998-2018","authors":"F. Fazel-Rastgar","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.92008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.92008","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this study is to examine the NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis Model) high-resolution dataset to understand the last two decades dramatic climate changes in Hudson Bay associated with the atmospheric keys by synoptically analysis. The anomalies of the near-surface meteorological parameters such as air temperature, humidity, mean sea level pressure, wind vectors along with cloudiness, precipitation, surface albedo and downward longwave radiation at surface in seasonally based changes have been analysed. The increase in low-level thermal structure leads to changing the near-surface humidity, evaporation, cloudiness, precipitation and downward longwave radiation at the surface. Also, winds have been accelerated associated with anticyclonic curvature development. The results show significant atmospheric changes during the last two decades in Hudson Bay with the highest values mostly during winter and fall seasons in the north, east boundaries and James Bay area. Using the statistical analysis for mean low-level temperature, surface albedo, low-level clouds and evaporation at the surface during nearly recent 2 decades (1998-2018) rather than the normal climatology mean (1981-2010) have revealed the meaningful significant difference for mentioned parameters. The statistical analysis results show that during spring there is a significant positive correlation between low clouds anomaly and 2 m air temperature anomaly rather than other seasons. So, the recent atmospheric changes in the study area as a region located in the Arctic and sub-Arctic can contribute to extra-local and global warming.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45448014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of Meteorological Drought in the Lower Nu River by Statistical Model","authors":"Wenhua Chen, Juan Xu, Shuangcheng Li","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.92007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.92007","url":null,"abstract":"Global climate change, temperature rise and some kinds of extreme meteorological disaster, such as the drought, threaten the development of the natural ecosystem and human society. Forecasting in drought is an important step toward developing a disaster mitigation system. In this study, we utilized the statistical, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict drought conditions based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in a major tributary in the lower reaches of Nu River. We employed data from 2001 to 2010 to fit the model and data from 2011 to 2013 for model validation. The results showed that the coefficients of determination (R2) was over 0.85 in each index series, and the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error were low, implying that the ARIMA model is effective and adequate for this region.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47477835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Indicator Approach to Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Communities in Kenya: A Case Study of Kitui County","authors":"M. Mwangi, E. Kituyi, G. Ouma, Denis Macharia","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.92005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.92005","url":null,"abstract":"Community vulnerability to climate change can be conceptualized as an aggregate of three vulnerability components: exposure to climatic stress, sensitivity to climate stress and adaptive capacity. However, even within similar regions these vulnerability components are spatially differentiated necessitating the understanding of a regions vulnerability pattern before targeting adaptation assistance. This research sought to understand the differentiated vulnerability patterns of communities in Kitui County as well as the existing coping strategies to guide implementation of adaptation assistance. Indicator approach to vulnerability assessment and focus group discussions were used to understand the vulnerability pattern and coping strategies respectively. Results showed a differentiated vulnerability pattern with a west to east gradient across Kitui County. The pattern exhibited less vulnerability scores on the western and central parts and more vulnerability scores on the eastern and northern parts of the County. Existing coping strategies have become inadequate with increasing climate variability, severity and frequency of extreme climate events, which render the communities even more vulnerable. The patterns of vulnerability can guide appropriate targeting of adaptation assistance and in turn lead to improved climate change resilience and community livelihoods.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46846681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flooding in Informal Settlements: Potentials and Limits for Household Adaptation in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania","authors":"Regina John","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.92006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.92006","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid urbanization and climate change are compounding the vulnerability of the urban poor to natural hazards, particularly in the global south. Large number of the population in cities of developing countries live in informal settlements characterized with lack of infrastructure facilities and services. Majority of the informal settlements are located in risk areas such as low-lying lands and river banks whereby climatic threats associated with flooding are common. The urban informal settlements are thus disproportionately more vulnerable due to their greater exposure associated with their geophysical location, under-invested infrastructure facilities as well as poor housing quality. While it is widely acknowledged that the need to adapt to climate change related hazards such as flooding is no longer an option, literature suggests that potentials and opportunities for adaptation are unevenly distributed among global regions, communities, sectors, ecological systems as well as across different time periods. This study sought to explore the potentials and limits of households living in flood prone in an informal settlement of Magomeni Suna, Dar es Salaam Tanzania. The study employed a mixed method research design using both quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis. Quantitative data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 199 randomly selected respondents, while non participant observation was used to capture information related to household physical adaptation measures. Key informant interviews were used to elicit data from purposively selected representatives of government and other local institutions. Two focus group discussions supplemented the data collected through the other methods. The results show that households employ multiple options for flood adaptation ranging from structural measures aimed at preventing flood water from entering the houses, to action oriented strategies such as relocation. The results also highlight there exist potentials like strong social networks, cohesive communities, and presence of various local institutions willing to support household responses to floods. Limitations to flood adaptation include little support and ad hoc intervention by government authorities, as well as meagre household income. To enhance household adaptation to flood hazards, policy measures towards enhancing social networks and community actions for flood adaptation are necessary. There is also a need to enhance multi institutional involvement as well as promote local livelihoods so as to improve household adaptation to floods.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44865728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatic Characteristics of Dust Storms in Jordan","authors":"A. Ghanem","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2020.92010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2020.92010","url":null,"abstract":"This study is devoted to examine the climate characteristics of the Dust Storms (DS) with visibility 0 - 1 km that occurred in Jordan for the period 1988 to 2018. It is found that the DS varies temporally and spatially, as the largest number of DS occurred in 2003 (36 DS) and the lowest occurred in 1999 (one DS). The average was 17.22 DS with the coefficient of variation of 45%, the DS durations ranged from 1 - 4 days, most of them occurred in spring (54.1%) especially in April (22.2%). The DS increased southward and eastward directions, they increased from 13 DS in Irbid in the north to 182 DS in Al-Jafr in the south and to 102 DS in Safawi in the east. The results showed positive relationships between wind speeds. There were negative relationships with relative humidity, pressure and rainfall, and there was no relationship between DS and the maximum temperature.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44935199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}