Anthropocene最新文献

{"title":"Impacts of the humid climate on the development of two ancient civilizations on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau","authors":"Mingjun Gao,&nbsp;Yu Li,&nbsp;Tingting Xi,&nbsp;Jiarui Zhao,&nbsp;Zhansen Zhang,&nbsp;Junjie Duan,&nbsp;Yaxin Xue,&nbsp;Hao Shang,&nbsp;Shiyu Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of climate change on human social development and civilizational evolution in the Holocene has been widely recognized by researchers. During the arid conditions of the late Holocene, the Siba and Shajing cultures flourished in the Hexi Corridor at the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. This occupation may be closely related to a short-term humid climate; however, the climate change patterns in the Hexi Corridor since the Holocene and their possible impact on human remain unclear. In this study, we acquired three lake sections in the Hexi Corridor and integrated paleoclimate records from surrounding areas, radiocarbon dates from human and animal bones, and plants from archaeological sites to investigate the relationship between human activity and climate change in the Hexi Corridor. The results indicate that the eastern and western regions of the Hexi Corridor experienced humid periods during different periods of the mid-Holocene, which were influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon and Westerly jet, and the climate in the Hexi Corridor was generally arid during the late Holocene. During the period of ∼4300–3700 cal yr BP, increased humidity and cultural exchanges promoted the development of agriculture and animal husbandry at the western end of the Hexi Corridor, and the Siba culture flourished during this period. A brief humid period occurred in the eastern section of the Hexi Corridor during the period of ∼2500–2300 cal yr BP, providing the conditions for the development of animal husbandry in the Shajing culture. Our research suggests that there is a close correlation between humid climates and the flourishing of ancient cultures, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100527"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agriculture and the rising ecological footprint in India","authors":"Shadman Zafar","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100532","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100532","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India’s ecological footprint has been rising alarmingly, posing a serious challenge to its sustainability goals. Despite agriculture’s potential to act as a carbon sink, the sector has increasingly become a source of environmental degradation due to energy-intensive and unsustainable practices. This paradox forms the core problem that this study addresses: Why is the agricultural sector in India, despite its scale and importance, unable to mitigate emissions and instead contributing to worsening ecological outcomes? Using annual data from 1965 to 2022, the study employs a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to examine the asymmetric effects of agricultural value added on ecological footprint, along with the roles of energy consumption, trade openness, and urbanization. Findings show a strong asymmetry: 1 % increase in agricultural value added aggravates ecological footprint by 1.20 %, whereas<!--> <!-->the same decline reduces ecological footprint by only 0.58 %. It reveals that positive shocks in agricultural value added have a disproportionately larger adverse impact on the ecological footprint than the negative shocks. The findings provide evidence-based support for transformative agricultural policies that decouple economic growth from environmental harm emphasizing the need for a transition toward sustainable agricultural practices in India. For policymakers, these insights offer a roadmap to redesign agricultural subsidies, incentives, and regulations that promote climate-smart techniques, renewable energy adoption, and efficient resource management across India's diverse agricultural landscape. By quantifying the asymmetric relationship between agricultural value added and ecological footprint, this research provides crucial benchmarks for India's climate commitments and sustainable development goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100532"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146173640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The sedimentary signature of plastics: Geological materials and stratigraphic markers of the Anthropocene","authors":"Nelson Rangel-Buitrago ,&nbsp;Mohamed Ben-Haddad ,&nbsp;Kathleen Nicoll ,&nbsp;Francois Galgani ,&nbsp;William J. Neal","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Plastics, originally developed as industrial materials, have become pervasive components of Earth’s surface systems and are increasingly preserved within sediments worldwide. Here, we synthesize current evidence to conceptualize plastics as geological materials and to assess their significance as sedimentary and stratigraphic signatures of the Anthropocene. We show that plastics behave as sedimentary particles, undergoing transport, sorting, deposition, burial, and reworking alongside mineral and biogenic grains, while exhibiting distinct physical and chemical properties that influence their environmental fate. We present an integrated framework that situates plastics within a plastic–sediment continuum and defines a geological plastic cycle, tracing their pathway from industrial production to environmental dispersal, burial, and early diagenesis. Building on this framework, we propose a three-tier geological classification of plastic-derived materials based on genesis, lithoform, and depositional facies, encompassing hybrid deposits such as plastiglomerates, plasticrusts, pyroplastics, and plastic-enriched soils and strata. Plastics form persistent, datable, and globally distributed sedimentary components that co-occur with other mid-twentieth-century anthropogenic signals. Their production-linked chronologies and context-dependent preservation support their consideration as complementary stratigraphic indicators of the Anthropocene, alongside other technogenic and geochemical markers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100538"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147420632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the past and future hydrological consequences of climate change and human activities on the upstream of the Anzali Wetland","authors":"Yazdan Parhoun,&nbsp;Mohammad Ali Banihashemi,&nbsp;Mohsen Nasseri","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological dynamics in riverine ecosystems, particularly wetlands, have become increasingly evident, prompting extensive scientific investigation. This study investigates the inflow to the Anzali Wetland in northern Iran, considering land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics over the simulation period and assessing the combined effects of climate change and LULC changes across past, present, and future periods. To generate future LULC maps, the Cellular Automata Markov (CA–Markov) model was employed, while future precipitation and temperature data were downscaled using the LARS-WG 8.0 under the SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios from the IPCC Six^th Assessment Report. In addition, four methods were applied to quantify the contributions of human activities and climate change to streamflow variations. The findings reveal that the impact of direct human activities exceeds that of climate change and plays a more dominant role in altering river flow patterns. The projected streamflow for the 2030–2040 period also indicates that the inflow to Anzali Wetland will continue its declining trend. For instance, the mean annual streamflow of the Masuleh Rudkhan River, at the wetland inlet, is expected to decrease by 13 %, 31 %, and 24 % under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period. In light of these findings and since the impacts of climate change are not directly controllable, policymakers are advised to develop and implement adaptive management strategies. Assessing the performance of various scenarios over time can help formulate more effective policies to enhance resilience to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100521"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145841166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anthropogenically driven deterioration of water quality in macrophyte-dominated freshwater lakes from Yangtze River basin, Eastern China","authors":"Lu Peng ,&nbsp;Huan Fu ,&nbsp;Yongdong Zhang ,&nbsp;Kunshan Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid development of social-economic activities in Yangtze River basin over the past century has a significant potential to degrade environment of local lakes; however, environmental dynamic in macrophyte-dominated lakes of this region and its interaction with anthropogenic forcing remains inadequately understood. Here, long-term successive change of water quality in two typical macrophyte-dominated freshwater lakes (Xiliang and Liangzi) from the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin was examined by high-resolution paleolimnological approach using multiple geochemical proxies, including lipid biomarker (short-chain <em>n</em>-alkane abundance, <em>n</em>-C₁₇/<em>n</em>-C₁₆ alkane, αβ-hopane abundance, homohopane index), hydrogen index (HI), and trace element (As, Cd, Pb, and Zn) enrichment factors (EFs), and anthropogenic drivers responsible for altering natural water quality variability was isolated by comparing timing of changes in geochemical results and documental records of human activities within and around the lakes. In Lake Xiliang, notable increase of HI and <em>n</em>-C₁₇/<em>n</em>-C₁₆ alkane in sediments after ca. 1961 indicated phytoplankton proliferation and thus a nutrient enriched lake water in this period, with agricultural expansion being the major driver of change. After ca. 1977, all geochemical proxies above prominently increased relative to before, implying the lake was more eutrophic and simultaneously polluted by petroleum products and heavy metals, which might have been linked to in-lake aquaculture and further development of agriculture in lake catchment especially the use of new technologies. In Lake Liangzi, the geochemical proxies highlight that the lake underwent eutrophication, petroleum and heavy metal pollution since ca. 1993, and the delayed deterioration of water quality in this lake might be related to the development of dense submerged macrophytes in littoral area which rendered the lake less vulnerable to external stressors by prohibiting the transport of nutrients and contamination to lake center until a critical threshold was crossed. This study highlights the utility of multiple proxies to provide a complete record of water quality dynamics in macrophyte-dominated freshwater lakes. The paleolimnological perspective of how water quality responds to synergistic external stressors and in-lake processes could be helpful for designing environmental management and restoration strategies to mitigate water quality deterioration in these lakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100533"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146173642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"South Caucasus greening and Neolithisation: What happened 8200 years ago?","authors":"S. Joannin ,&nbsp;G. Palumbi ,&nbsp;O. Peyron ,&nbsp;A. Cromartie ,&nbsp;E. Messager ,&nbsp;S.A.G. Leroy ,&nbsp;C. Kuzucuoglu ,&nbsp;N. Ryabogina ,&nbsp;M. Robles ,&nbsp;V. Ollivier ,&nbsp;L. Dugerdil ,&nbsp;B. Lyonnet ,&nbsp;C. Marro ,&nbsp;B. Perello ,&nbsp;A. Ricci ,&nbsp;E. Baudouin ,&nbsp;R. Badalyan ,&nbsp;K. Meliksetyan ,&nbsp;F. Guliyev ,&nbsp;S. Hansen ,&nbsp;A. Decaix","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the South Caucasus, located north of the Fertile Crescent and between Black and Caspian Seas, the Neolithic way of life emerged relatively late, around 6000 BCE (8000 cal BP). This delay, compared with regions such as Anatolia or the Kopet Dag, has long been discussed by archaeologists and generally attributed to geographical or technical constraints. Climate has also been considered a key factor, particularly the 8.2 ka event, which is often linked to the spread of farming and herding from the Fertile Crescent into neighbouring regions. This event is believed to have triggered a transition from hunter-gathering to agropastoralism. However, its direct impact on the South Caucasus remains debated. Recent palaeoenvironmental studies indicate that the region underwent a major ecological transformation around 8200 cal BP, coinciding with the Early–Middle Holocene Transition. This period was characterised by increased precipitation. As a result, vegetation expanded, particularly grasslands dominated by Poaceae, which provided favourable conditions for livestock grazing and fodder production. Unlike the abrupt 8.2 ka event, this longer-term shift significantly reshaped the environment of the South Caucasus. This review argues that it was not the short-term climatic anomaly but rather the sustained increase in precipitation during the Early–Middle Holocene Transition that created the conditions necessary for the emergence of the Caucasian Neolithic. The expansion of vegetation and natural resources provided an ecological basis for the gradual adoption of agriculture and herding, ultimately leading to the development of an agropastoral system in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100535"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147420630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inception of anthropogenic activities and palaeoclimatic reconstruction during the Late Holocene from a high-altitude region, Western Himalaya, India: Palynological perspective","authors":"Amit Kumar Mishra ,&nbsp;Ruchika Bajpai Mohanty ,&nbsp;Ratan Kar","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Palynological analyses of surface soil and sub-surface sediments were undertaken from Chopta-Tungnath, Uttarakhand State, India, to decipher the Late Holocene climatic changes, along with the inception, intensification and impact of anthropogenic activities in this high-altitude Himalayan region. The study area is characterised by mixed-temperate forests and alpine meadows. The development of modern palynological analogues has been done by the surface soil samples that were collected along an altitudinal transect (2700–3680 m), encompassing three distinct vegetation zones: mixed-temperate forests, tree-line vegetation, and alpine-scrub and meadows. The modern analogues were primarily generated to interpret the pollen-vegetation relationship and are compatible with the sub-surface fossil pollen records. Sub-surface sampling was done from a trial trench (105 cm), dug in the zone of mixed-temperate forests. Based on the radiocarbon dates (¹⁴C), climate fluctuations over the last 5070 years have been inferred through variations in the ratio of arboreal to non-arboreal pollen (AP/NAP), along with the subtle variations in the frequencies of temperate broad-leaved taxa. Besides, deducing the Late Holocene climatic changes, the palynological assemblages were also used to record the anthropogenic activities in the region. Around 850 yr BP, the evidence of human impact is manifested by the declining trend in the pollen frequencies of <em>Quercus</em> and <em>Rhododendron</em>, which indicate the degradation of these two arboreal components of the forest. There is a corresponding spike of Asteroideae, Cichorioideae and ruderal pollen, which are related to human activities. The increasing frequencies of coprophilous (dung-loving) fungi in the palynological assemblages of the sub-surface sediments, around 900 yr BP, provide further evidence towards the introduction of grazers in the area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100526"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leaching of legacy paper mill sludge induces lithification by cementation of fluvial sediment","authors":"Md Jahangir Alam ,&nbsp;John M. MacDonald","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the formation of anthropogenic conglomeratic rock caused by the lithification of natural fluvial sediment due to calcium leaching from adjacent paper mill sludge (PMS) deposits. The research focuses on a site near Penicuik, Scotland, where historical paper mill activities resulted in calcium-rich waste accumulation. Field observations identified lithified sediment on the stream bed beneath the PMS heaps, with natural clasts cemented by calcium carbonate (CaCO₃). Microstructural analysis using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDX) confirmed that the cementing material is predominantly calcite. X-ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis further validated the mineralogical composition, revealing calcite-rich cementation. Stable isotope analysis (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) indicated a mixed carbon source, with approximately 40 % derived from atmospheric CO₂ and 60 % from lithogenic origins. These findings demonstrate that Ca^2 + leached from PMS dissolved into pore water which migrated down into the fluvial sediment, facilitating calcite precipitation and binding sediment particles into a cohesive structure. This anthropogenic conglomerate challenges traditional classifications of sedimentary rocks and has implications for waste management, pollutant immobilization, and localized carbon sequestration. This anthropogenic lithification process parallels natural clastic sedimentary rock formation but occurs at the Earth's surface and on much shorter timescales. The results highlight the geochemical interactions between industrial waste and natural sediments, emphasizing human influence on sedimentary systems, bridging gaps between natural and anthropogenic geology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100523"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-term trends in aquatic communities of mesotrophic lakes along a land-use gradient in eastern Canada","authors":"Leighton King ,&nbsp;Paul W. MacKeigan ,&nbsp;Rebecca E. Garner ,&nbsp;Madeleine E. Aucoin ,&nbsp;Beatrix E. Beisner ,&nbsp;Isabelle Domaizon ,&nbsp;John P. Smol ,&nbsp;Irene Gregory-Eaves","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increased human development since the Industrial Era has intensified toxic cyanobacterial blooms, which pose significant risks to public health and can cause detrimental effects on lake ecosystems. Mesotrophic lakes are particularly sensitive to nutrient shifts, making them critical systems for understanding bloom dynamics. Sedimentary DNA from paleolimnological archives provides valuable insights into community structure by situating contemporary data within the context of historical dynamics. We analyzed sediment cores from six mesotrophic lakes in Québec and Ontario (Canada) that span a modern human land-use gradient. Cores were analyzed using sedimentary DNA techniques targeting specific cyanobacteria marker genes, including quantitative (q)PCR and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Cladoceran assemblages from the same cores provided complementary food web data. We detected widespread increases in cyanobacteria abundance across all lakes, with a higher magnitude of increase in lakes located in high intensity land-use catchments. Bloom-forming orders (Nostocales, Chroococcales, Oscillatoriales) increased in relative abundance in some lakes, often replacing unicellular Synechococcales, which tended to dominate less-impacted systems. These cyanobacterial shifts often coincided with compositional changes in cladoceran assemblages, favoring small-bodied and ecologically flexible taxa such as <em>Bosmina</em> and <em>Chydorus brevilabris</em>. Overall, the analyses of paleogenetic records demonstrate that climate change, land-use intensity, and lake-specific traits have driven century-scale cyanobacterial increases and food-web shifts in mesotrophic lakes, with impacts on both bloom dynamics and cladoceran communities. Such long-term analyses are essential for revealing how interacting human and climatic pressures reshape aquatic ecosystems and guiding more effective management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100507"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145738620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional vegetation and climate changes are inconsistent with global trends, but what now?","authors":"Michael D. Cramer ,&nbsp;Johanna R.C. von Holdt ,&nbsp;Heidi-Jayne Hawkins ,&nbsp;M. Timm Hoffman","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global greening is a trend attributed to rising atmospheric CO₂, warming and land-use change. However, certain regions may diverge from this pattern. South Africa, which occupies 0.82 % of the global terrestrial surface area with <em>ca.</em> 10 % of global Plantae species, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change. We analysed enhanced vegetation indices (EVI) from 1984 to 2021 across protected areas, correlating this with climate data from ground stations and reanalysis models (TerraClimate, ERA5, CFSv2). The data were aggregated for ten vegetation biomes and anomaly values calculated (i.e., departure of annual value from site mean for the entire period). Results showed significant declines in EVI anomalies over time in seven biomes (Desert, Forests, Fynbos, Grassland, Indian Ocean Coastal Belt, Savanna and Succulent Karoo) out of ten. Temporal EVI variability did not increase, and there was little evidence for changes in precipitation or aridity. Contrary to global patterns, regional ground station average temperatures were relatively stable between 1980 and 2021 whereas maximum temperature increased, and minimum temperatures decreased, resulting in a sharp increase in temperature ranges (0.455°C decade⁻¹). A shift in average temperature trends, however, occurred in 2007, with a subsequent linear rise of 0.36°C decade^-1. While reanalysis data agree with ground station data on the lack of precipitation change, it diverged on temperature trends, showing low correlation with ground observations raising concerns about its accuracy at the regional level. We conclude that South Africa’s vegetation patterns diverge from the global greening trend. It is uncertain how the observed increases in temperature ranges, recent increases in average annual temperature, and varying disturbances may drive future vegetation change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100522"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145841155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}