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A comprehensive method for source identification and environmental capacity of agricultural soil heavy metals: A case study in Yiwu City, China 农业土壤重金属来源识别与环境容量综合方法研究——以义乌市为例
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100483
Ning Li , Yan Li , Huanchao Zhang , Xuefeng Xie , Ke Liu , QingBin Fan , Zhenyi Jia
{"title":"A comprehensive method for source identification and environmental capacity of agricultural soil heavy metals: A case study in Yiwu City, China","authors":"Ning Li ,&nbsp;Yan Li ,&nbsp;Huanchao Zhang ,&nbsp;Xuefeng Xie ,&nbsp;Ke Liu ,&nbsp;QingBin Fan ,&nbsp;Zhenyi Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100483","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100483","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate identification of heavy metals (HMs) pollution sources is a premise for effective management of HMs pollution, while the existing source apportionment methods are subject to greater human subjectivity. Taking agricultural soil in Yiwu City as a case study, based on receptor models, GeoDetector was introduced to compensate for the defects that receptor models could not consider the spatial geographic information, to reduce the interference of anthropogenic subjective judgments on the identification of HMs pollution sources. In this study, the GeoDetector involves natural explanatory variables (slope, aspect, and elevation) and anthropogenic explanatory variables (land use type, pH, and the nearest distance from the sampling site to rivers, factories, roads, railways and residential areas). With the assistance of GeoDetector, the source apportionment results showed that HMs originated from fertilization (43.38 %), emissions from traffic and urban household (32.64 %), and river irrigation (23.98 %). Whether concentration-oriented or source-oriented, probability of health risk for population is very low. Soil HMs had a mild comprehensive environmental capacity (EC) risk (PI = 0.93), and Cd brought by fertilization reached a moderate EC risk (P<sub>i</sub> = 0.41). This study can provide reference for the priority control of soil HMs pollution sources, in order to effectively reduce pollution risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100483"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aggregated multivariate environmental risk (AMER) index and predictive models for heavy metal pollution trends in ecosystems 生态系统重金属污染趋势的综合多元环境风险指数及预测模型
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100482
Abeer A. Moneer, Mohamed Khedawy, Ola E. Abdelwahab, Hoda H.H. Ahdy, Mohamed Amer
{"title":"Aggregated multivariate environmental risk (AMER) index and predictive models for heavy metal pollution trends in ecosystems","authors":"Abeer A. Moneer,&nbsp;Mohamed Khedawy,&nbsp;Ola E. Abdelwahab,&nbsp;Hoda H.H. Ahdy,&nbsp;Mohamed Amer","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heavy metal (HM) contamination in estuarine sediments represents a critical environmental challenge, with profound implications for ecosystem health and human safety. To address this pressing issue, proactive monitoring and predictive modeling have emerged as essential tools. This study investigates the application of three predictive models—Grey Model (GM (1,1)), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Exponential Smoothing (ES)—to analyze historical and current data on eight key HMs (Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni, Cr, Mn, and Fe) in sediment samples from the Rosetta and Damietta estuaries in Egypt. Utilizing these models, five-year contamination trends were forecasted, incorporating both single-element pollution indices (SEPIs) and multiple-element pollution indices (MEPIs) to evaluate pollution levels and elucidate complex metal interactions. Furthermore, this study introduces a new MEPI, the Aggregated Multivariate Environmental Risk (AMER) index, derived from Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The AMER index demonstrated approximately 20 % higher responsiveness—measured by earlier detection and greater sensitivity to pollution fluctuations—compared to traditional multimetal indices such as PERI. Among the models evaluated, ES exhibited the highest predictive accuracy, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.3 % for Cu predictions. Significant positive correlations were identified between Pb and Ni (r = 0.77, p &lt; 0.05) in Damietta and Cu and Zn (r = 0.65, p &lt; 0.05) in Rosetta, suggesting common pollution sources. The five-year forecasts indicate a declining trend for most metals, reflecting the efficacy of recent pollution control measures. This integrated modeling approach provides enhanced pollution assessment and forecasting capabilities, offering valuable insights for the development of sustainable estuarine management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100482"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144564064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental DNA reveals anthropogenic impacts on fish diversity in mountain streams and the increasing risk of species invasion 环境DNA揭示了人类活动对山涧鱼类多样性的影响和物种入侵风险的增加
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100481
Yu Zhou , Yunchao Luo , Fan Yu , Zihong Zheng , Jidong Li , Yu Wang , Xu Wang , Jiale Cheng , Zhongqiu Li , Lin Wang , Aichun Xu
{"title":"Environmental DNA reveals anthropogenic impacts on fish diversity in mountain streams and the increasing risk of species invasion","authors":"Yu Zhou ,&nbsp;Yunchao Luo ,&nbsp;Fan Yu ,&nbsp;Zihong Zheng ,&nbsp;Jidong Li ,&nbsp;Yu Wang ,&nbsp;Xu Wang ,&nbsp;Jiale Cheng ,&nbsp;Zhongqiu Li ,&nbsp;Lin Wang ,&nbsp;Aichun Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fish diversity and population dynamics are critical to freshwater ecosystem health. However, the direct disturbance of fish communities resulting from human activities and indirect impacts during environmental modifications pose significant risks to fish diversity. In this study, we employed eDNA metabarcoding technology to investigate the diversity and distribution of fish in the main water sources of the Zhejiang Jiulongshan National Nature Reserve. A total of 11 orders, 24 families, 47 genera and 61 species of fish, including 5 exotic species, were identified. The results revealed a greater number of fish species at the lower-elevation sampling sites but greater uncertainty at the higher-elevation sampling sites. However, small numbers of exotic fish species were observed at almost all the sampling sites. Cypriniformes served as biomarkers at the sampling sites with tourism activities, whereas more unique taxonomic units, such as Siluriformes and Gobiiformes, were observed at the sampling sites without tourism activities. Many environmental factors were significantly correlated with fish community differences within and outside the core area. Notably, the mean total organic carbon (TOC) and mean chemical oxygen demand (COD) levels were 8.73 % and 17.51 % greater, respectively, in the core area than outside the core area. In contrast, the phosphate, sulfide, Fe and pH levels were greater outside the core area than inside the core area. Our study revealed anthropogenic disturbances to biological communities in freshwater ecosystems by investigating the distribution and abundance of fish OTUs. Changes in the aquatic environment and biological invasions triggered by the activities of indigenous people, ecotourism and the operation of artificial fishponds may be the main risk factors influencing fish diversity in mountain streams.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100481"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144522614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Community-Based Nature Understanding Framework for exploring socio-ecological dynamics in rural Romania 探索罗马尼亚农村社会生态动态的基于社区的自然理解框架
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100480
Kinga Olga Reti , Tibor Hartel , Andreea Ocrain , Dacinia Crina Petrescu , Florentina Călugăr , Iulia Ajtai , Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag
{"title":"A Community-Based Nature Understanding Framework for exploring socio-ecological dynamics in rural Romania","authors":"Kinga Olga Reti ,&nbsp;Tibor Hartel ,&nbsp;Andreea Ocrain ,&nbsp;Dacinia Crina Petrescu ,&nbsp;Florentina Călugăr ,&nbsp;Iulia Ajtai ,&nbsp;Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces the Community-Based Nature Understanding Framework (CBNUF) to explore social-ecological dynamics in rural central Romania. Using insights from participatory workshops, we examined how local stakeholders perceive nature, its vulnerabilities, and sustainable pathways forward. Six main categories emerged through grounded theory and causal network modeling: Defining nature, Nature’s role (past, present, and future), Challenges and vulnerabilities, Governance and community action, Opportunities for innovation, and Barriers to sustainable development. These were aligned with Nature-based Solutions principles, emphasizing co-benefits and participatory governance. The framework adopts a hierarchical structure of “parent,” “child,” and “sibling” categories, reflecting how local perceptions shape actions and constraints without enforcing strict causality. The foundational Defining nature category captures how communities understand and value the environment, influencing all other categories. Shifting from typical ecological-loss narratives, our vulnerability-focused approach enabled residents to express adaptive concerns and strategies. In Saschiz (Mureș county), locals linked orchard decline to seasonal drought, prompting collective initiatives like festivals and agro-tourism. These insights reveal how cultural practices intertwine with ecological realities. By centering local knowledge and lived experience, the study offers a grounded perspective on adaptive governance and resilience amid socio-environmental change in the Anthropocene.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100480"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimization of functional zoning and spatial patterns of water conservation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under different SSP-RCP scenarios 不同SSP-RCP情景下青藏高原水土保持功能分区与空间格局优化
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100479
Yuxin Wang , Yulin Song , Xiaohong Deng , Zongxing Li
{"title":"Optimization of functional zoning and spatial patterns of water conservation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under different SSP-RCP scenarios","authors":"Yuxin Wang ,&nbsp;Yulin Song ,&nbsp;Xiaohong Deng ,&nbsp;Zongxing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is known as the water tower of Asia, and its water conservation has an important impact on China and even on South, Southeast, and Central Asia. Currently, the water conservation is unstable due to climate and anthropogenic impacts. Strengthening the water conservation of the QTP is crucial for coping with climate change and maintaining the stability of the downstream water supply. Based on the raster data of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, this study employed the Bayesian network to assess the water conservation on the QTP, and to determine key variables and states that affect water conservation. Finally, we identified the optimized zones under the SSP-RCP scenarios for the years 2021–2100 through grid coding analysis. The results show that: (1) The water conservation of the QTP shows a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. The average value of Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB) and Three-Rivers Source Region (TRSR) were 36.47 % and 24.93 % higher than that of the QTP. (2) Precipitation, land use, and potential evapotranspiration contribute more than 1 percent to water conservation and are key variables. (3) The QTP can be divided into four ecological subzones in future scenarios. Among them, the area proportion of ecological conservation zone increases by an average of 7.65 %, and the area proportion of ecological control zone decreases by an average of 8.38 %. Targeted management strategies can be implemented in these distinct zones. The research methodology of this paper can be extended to other regions to enhance water conservation, which has practical guiding value for optimizing the ecological engineering layout and ecosystem management on the QTP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100479"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144314340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pastoralism and mining activities affecting timberline ecosystems in the Italian Alps during the last millennia 在过去的一千年里,畜牧业和采矿活动影响了意大利阿尔卑斯山的树带线生态系统
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100478
Giulia Furlanetto , Renata Perego , Marco Stefano Caccianiga , Roberto Comolli , Laura Ferigato , Giulia Frigerio , Cesare Ravazzi
{"title":"Pastoralism and mining activities affecting timberline ecosystems in the Italian Alps during the last millennia","authors":"Giulia Furlanetto ,&nbsp;Renata Perego ,&nbsp;Marco Stefano Caccianiga ,&nbsp;Roberto Comolli ,&nbsp;Laura Ferigato ,&nbsp;Giulia Frigerio ,&nbsp;Cesare Ravazzi","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100478","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Historical ecology and palaeoecology provide a key for understanding the last millennia’s landscape changes, by reconstructing the chain of ecological/anthropogenic events that generated the current dynamics of the living systems. We analysed co-registered bio- and geoecological proxies (micro-botanical data, charcoal fragments, elemental abundance, nutrients), retrieved from a subalpine mire in Valmalenco, Italian Alps, to infer the main environmental transformations that led to the current larch-parkland-pasture landscape typical of timberline elevations in the Alps. The radiocarbon-dated record begins ca. BC 1300 with a primary forest formed by <em>Pinus cembra</em>, <em>Picea excelsa</em> and <em>Larix decidua</em> already affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Human impact increases during Early Iron Age with the development of mining activities and pastoralism. Local fires occurred in the Iron-Roman Ages; but from AD 1035, the primary forest experiences a definitive collapse to clear space for pastures during a climatically favourable phase. Lead enrichment unravels smelting activities that contributed to century-scale human impact increase. Critical minerogenic intake in Spundascia’s mire are related to the severe environmental conditions established during the Little Ice Age. In the Modern Age, pasture is carried even within the mire, as indicated by abundance of spores of coprophilous fungi. In conclusion, it is the last millennium of mostly anthropogenic drivers, enhanced by positive climate feedback, which overturned the ecological trajectories towards the modern setting of pasture intensity, eutrophication and fire disturbance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100478"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144239689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Perception and drivers of cultural ecosystem services in waterfront green spaces: Insights from social media text analysis 滨水绿地文化生态系统服务的感知与驱动:来自社交媒体文本分析的见解
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100477
Jie Li , Xiuqian Guo , Jiajun You , Zongfei He , Zhenfeng Yang , Lina Wang
{"title":"Perception and drivers of cultural ecosystem services in waterfront green spaces: Insights from social media text analysis","authors":"Jie Li ,&nbsp;Xiuqian Guo ,&nbsp;Jiajun You ,&nbsp;Zongfei He ,&nbsp;Zhenfeng Yang ,&nbsp;Lina Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With urbanization accelerating, waterfront green spaces—as critical interfaces between nature and human systems—play an essential role in delivering cultural ecosystem services (CES) that support sustainable urban development. This study employed content analysis and text mining techniques on social media platforms to collect 102,586 user-generated comments on 51 waterfront green spaces along the Huangpu River and Suzhou Creek in Shanghai, China. We constructed CES and landscape element dictionaries, applied sentiment analysis to measure emotional responses, and classified user reviews by CES frequency. Key influencing factors were identified through multiple linear regression. The findings reveal that: (1) Ten CES categories were identified, and the public generally expressed a positive attitude toward the CES provided by waterfront green spaces, with an average satisfaction score of 90.14 %. The perception frequencies of recreation (0.68), aesthetic (0.67), and naturalist (0.62) emerged as the primary motivations for visitation; (2) Waterfront green spaces were categorized into four types based on CES perception frequencies: history and culture-led, sports and health-led, naturalist-led, and CES-balanced spaces; (3) Key factors influencing public satisfaction were identified. Among natural landscape elements, flowers and lawns, water bodies, and topography and rocking formations contributed to satisfaction in three CES categories. Among artificial elements, roads and squares, built structures, and transportation facilities were linked to satisfaction in five, four, and three CES categories, respectively. Interestingly, pets also emerged as a notable factor, contributing to satisfaction in five CES categories. This study provides empirical insights into public CES preferences and offers practical guidance for the planning and management of waterfront green spaces.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100477"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological quality on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Drivers, trends, and implications for sustainable development 青藏高原生态质量时空动态:可持续发展的驱动力、趋势与启示
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100476
Tianjie Tong , Daojun Zhong , Zhenhan Tu
{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological quality on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Drivers, trends, and implications for sustainable development","authors":"Tianjie Tong ,&nbsp;Daojun Zhong ,&nbsp;Zhenhan Tu","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100476","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100476","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a vital ecological frontier undergoing significant environmental changes due to climate change and escalating human activity. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of ecological quality across the QTP from 2000 to 2020 utilizing an integrated analytical framework that combines the Remote Sensing-based Ecological Index (RSEI), Sen-Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and decision tree classification. Our data indicate that 17.32 % of the plateau saw substantial ecological enhancement during the research period, especially in the eastern and northern parts. In contrast, only 2.70 % exhibited degradation, primarily in the southern portions. The temporal study revealed a transition towards ecological stabilization throughout the 2010–2020 timeframe in contrast to the more erratic 2000–2010 decade. Attribution study revealed that human activities were the primary catalyst of ecological change, influencing 8.42 % of the area, with predominantly positive effects observed in 82.86 % of human-affected regions, defying traditional beliefs regarding anthropogenic consequences in high-altitude ecosystems. Climate elements demonstrated intricate influences, with precipitation often improving ecological quality, whereas temperature effects transitioned from largely detrimental to more balanced over time. Examining land cover transitions revealed that grassland restoration is especially advantageous for ecological enhancement, with the conversion from bare land to grassland being the most substantial positive change. Our findings underscore the efficacy of ecological restoration initiatives while elucidating the regionally distinct relationships between climatic and anthropogenic factors. These findings highlight the necessity for geographically customized conservation programs that tackle particular regional issues and leverage proven restoration achievements. This research enhances our comprehension of biological dynamics in high-altitude habitats and establishes a scientific basis for the sustainable management of the QTP, a region of global ecological importance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100476"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Past and future climate change in the Zagros region of western Iran 伊朗西部扎格罗斯地区过去和未来的气候变化
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100475
Pedram Attarod , Haifeng Zhu , Samira Beiranvand , Thomas Grant Pypker , Vilma Bayramzadeh , Hamid Soofi Mariv , Kazhal Karimi
{"title":"Past and future climate change in the Zagros region of western Iran","authors":"Pedram Attarod ,&nbsp;Haifeng Zhu ,&nbsp;Samira Beiranvand ,&nbsp;Thomas Grant Pypker ,&nbsp;Vilma Bayramzadeh ,&nbsp;Hamid Soofi Mariv ,&nbsp;Kazhal Karimi","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The decline of Zagros forests of western Iran is assumed to be a consequence of climate change. The impact of climate change extends beyond the environment and has affected living standards, the economy, society, and the cultural development of people in the Zagros region. This study aimed to analyze trends in the meteorological data obtained from observations at 16 synoptic weather stations in the Zagros region between1988 and 2022 and assessed future climate change under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator were applied to detect significant trends in meteorological datasets. Projected meteorological variables of the NorESM2-LM model under SSP1, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios were downscaled from 2030 to 2060 for each station using a quantile mapping approach. From 1988–2022, annual air temperature (75 % of stations) and wind speed (56 % of stations) significantly increased (α=0.05), but there were no significant trends in precipitation for any of the stations. Since 1988, an increase was observed in both temperature (0.04 °C y<sup>−1</sup>) and wind speed (0.02 m s<sup>−1</sup> y<sup>−1</sup>). Compared to the historical period, the mean annual temperature is expected to increase under SSP1, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios by 0.2°C, 0.4°C, and 1.2°C, respectively, between 2030 and 2060. However, our projections under all scenarios suggest a negligible increase in average annual precipitation in the Zagros region. The results of this research suggest that the Zagros region will be vulnerable to drought under all scenarios, leading to substantial impacts on water resources, Zagros forests, agriculture, and related socio-economic activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100475"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Highland transformation: Human impact in the Bukov Brook valley (Bohemian-Moravian Highlands) from Prehistory to the modern era 高地改造:人类对布科夫溪谷(波西米亚-摩拉维亚高地)从史前到现代的影响
IF 3.3 2区 地球科学
Anthropocene Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100474
Jan Petřík , Libor Petr , Miroslav Dejmal , Michaela Prišťáková , Michal Vágner , Petr Kočár , Klára Šabatová , Marcin Frączek , Aleš Bajer , Katarína Adameková , Mojmír Hrádek
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