Journal of Business Cycle Research最新文献_第10页

New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis 新西兰劳动力市场动态:全球金融危机前后

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2016-08-12 DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0001-6

W. Razzak

引用次数: 1

Does a Survey Based Capacity Utilization Measure Help Predicting Brazilian Output Gap in Real-Time? 基于产能利用率测量的调查有助于实时预测巴西的产出缺口吗?

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2016-08-11 DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0004-3

S. Lima, M. Malgarini

引用次数: 4

Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices 确定俄罗斯的周期性转折点:正式方法和非正式选择

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2016-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2720134

S. Smirnov, N. Kondrashov, Anna V. Petronevich

引用次数: 9

Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers 商业周期中消费者信心的决定因素:来自美国消费者调查的证据

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s41549-016-0010-5

K. Lahiri, Yongchen Zhao

引用次数: 32

The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE 商业调查指标的预测内容:来自SIGE的证据

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2015-09-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2722518

Tatiana Cesaroni, S. Iezzi

{"title":"The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE","authors":"Tatiana Cesaroni, S. Iezzi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2722518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2722518","url":null,"abstract":"Business surveys indicators represent an important tool in economic analysis and forecasting practices. While there is wide consensus on the coincident properties of such data, there is mixed evidence on their ability to forecast macroeconomic developments in the short term. In this study we extend the previous research on business surveys predictive content by examining for the first time the leading properties of the main business survey indicators coming from the Italian survey on inflation and growth expectations (SIGE). To this end we provide a complete characterization of the business cycle leading/coincident properties of SIGE data (turning points, average duration, synchronization etc.) with respect to the National Accounts reference series using both non parametric approaches (i.e. Harding and Pagan in J Monet Econ 49(2):365–381, 2002) and econometric models (discrete and continuous dynamic single equation models). Overall the results indicate that in both the approaches SIGE business indicators are able to early detect turning points of their corresponding national account reference series in almost all cases. Overall, the average lead of troughs is found to be higher than the average lead of peaks.","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"47 1","pages":"75-104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76070821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 163

Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful? 预测欧洲就业:调查结果有用吗?

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2013-10-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2337564

R. Lehmann, A. Weyh

引用次数: 33

Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output 趋势-周期互动与次贷危机:美国和加拿大产出分析

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.1007/s41549-021-00058-2

M. Soloschenko, Enzo Weber

引用次数: 1