确定俄罗斯的周期性转折点:正式方法和非正式选择

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Business Cycle Research Pub Date : 2016-01-22 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2720134

S. Smirnov, N. Kondrashov, Anna V. Petronevich

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引用次数: 9

摘要

摘要本文建立了20世纪80年代初至2015年中期俄罗斯经济周期的参考年表。为了检测波峰和波谷，我们测试了9个月指数作为参考序列，3种季节调整方法(X-12-ARIMA、TRAMO/SEATS和CAMPLET)，以及3种周期拐点测年方法(本地最小/最大值法、布里-波山法和马尔可夫切换模型)。由于这些或多或少正式的方法导致了不同的估计，任何明智的选择都只能基于非正式的考虑。最后一组转折点看起来似乎是合理的，并以一种可解释的方式将扩张和收缩分开，但需要进一步讨论才能在专家之间建立共识。

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Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices

Abstract This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as a reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and three methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry–Boschan method, and Markov-switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was only possible on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts.

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来源期刊

Journal of Business Cycle Research Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Business Cycle Research promotes the exchange of knowledge and information on theoretical and empirical aspects of economic fluctuations. The range of topics encompasses the methods, analysis, measurement, modeling, monitoring, or forecasting of cyclical fluctuations including but not limited to: business cycles, financial cycles, credit cycles, price fluctuations, sectoral cycles, regional business cycles, international business cycles, the coordination and interaction of cycles, their implications for macroeconomic policy coordination, fiscal federalism and optimal currency areas, or the conduct of monetary policy; as well as statistical approaches to the development of short-term economic statistics and indicators; business tendency, investment, and consumer surveys; use of survey data or cyclical indicators for business cycle analysis. The journal targets both theoretical and applied economists and econometricians in academic research on economic fluctuations, as well as researchers in central banks and other institutions engaged in economic forecasting and empirical modeling. The Journal of Business Cycle Research is the successor to the OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis which was published by the OECD and CIRET from 2004 to 2015. Cited as: J Bus Cycle Res