{"title":"Why did agriculture's share of Australian gross domestic product not decline for a century?","authors":"Kym Anderson","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12540","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12540","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The agricultural sector's share of gross domestic product (GDP) in growing economies typically declines but, for a century from the early 1850s, Australia's did not. Drawing on recent structural transformation literature, this paper seeks explanations for this unusual phenomenon, which is all the more striking because agriculture's share of employment continued to decline throughout and growth in manufacturing was being stimulated by tariff protection from imports. Several factors contributed, including a huge land frontier that took more than a century for settlers to explore, rapid declines in initially crippling domestic and ocean trade costs for farm products, the absence of a need to do any processing of the two main exports during that period (gold and wool) and innovations by farmers and via a strong public agricultural R&D system that contributed to farm labour productivity nearly doubling over those 10 decades. The ban on iron ore exports from 1938 and low export prices for fuels, minerals and metals during the two world wars and in the intervening decades also contributed.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 1","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12540","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135242697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michael Young, John Young, Ross S. Kingwell, Philip E. Vercoe
{"title":"Representing weather-year variation in whole-farm optimisation models: Four-stage single-sequence vs eight-stage multi-sequence","authors":"Michael Young, John Young, Ross S. Kingwell, Philip E. Vercoe","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12539","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12539","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The trade-off between accuracy and complexity is a common issue faced in farm systems analysis. To provide insights into the importance of representing weather-year sequence in farm modelling, two whole-farm optimisation models are constructed and applied to a mixed enterprise farming system in a subregion of Western Australia. The frameworks are (i) four-stage single-sequence stochastic programming with recourse (4-SPR) to capture weather-year variation and management tactics tailored to each weather-year and (ii) eight-stage multi-sequence stochastic programming with recourse (8-SPR) to outline weather-year sequences and management tactics tailored to particular weather-year sequences. Results show that single-year stochastic programming generates similar expected profit and strategic management as multi-year stochastic programming. However, optimal tactical farm management is affected by the outcome of the previous year. Tactical decision-making in response to the outcome of the preceding weather-year increases profitability by 14%. Technology changes over the last decade, particularly the increase in computer speed and computational power, increase the ease of construction and application of the 4-SPR and 8-SPR frameworks. Nonetheless, choosing which framework is best to apply to a particular issue or opportunity remains a challenge.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 1","pages":"44-59"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12539","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135726258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muzna Alvi, Patrick Ward, Simrin Makhija, David J. Spielman
{"title":"Do grassroots interventions relax behavioural constraints and improve adoption of nutrition-sensitive food production systems?","authors":"Muzna Alvi, Patrick Ward, Simrin Makhija, David J. Spielman","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12535","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12535","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In most developing countries, agricultural policies and programs are designed to promote productivity growth with modern inputs and technologies, and the success of these policies is measured primarily along the dimensions of technology adoption, with limited reference to the ancillary impacts on behavioural outcomes that may be a prerequisite to adoption. We test whether grassroots programs can additionally relax behavioural constraints, potentially enhancing the adoption of diversified production systems. In Odisha, India, using a series of laboratory-in-field experiments and survey instruments to elicit farmers' preferences for risk, agency and aspirations for themselves and their children, we find that respondents in villages where grassroots interventions were promoted showed significantly lower levels of risk aversion and higher aspirations for themselves and their children, along with improvements in production and consumption diversity. However, we do not find a mediating role of reduced risk aversion in improving direct program outcomes. Our results show that grassroots approaches are effective in inducing a shift towards changing production systems, and relaxing behavioural constraints, that can be leveraged over time to strengthen impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 1","pages":"101-124"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135413457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bruno Paz, Atakelty Hailu, Maria Fay Rola-Rubzen, Md Mamunur Rashid
{"title":"Conservation agriculture-based sustainable intensification improves technical efficiency in Northern Bangladesh: The case of Rangpur","authors":"Bruno Paz, Atakelty Hailu, Maria Fay Rola-Rubzen, Md Mamunur Rashid","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12537","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12537","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The dissemination of conservation agriculture (CA) technologies has become the objective of a growing number of projects aimed at reducing food insecurity in vulnerable areas of the world. While many studies have found that CA increases farm productivity, little is known about the components of the productivity gains related to CA adoption. CA is a knowledge-intensive technology, and it is expected to affect both technical efficiency (TE) and input productivity positively. Using cross-sectional farm-level data of 220 maize farmers in Bangladesh, we measure the impact of CA on farmers' TE. We first apply propensity score matching (PSM) to create comparable counterfactual groups of CA and non-CA farmers. Then, we use a stochastic frontier with correction for self-selection bias to analyse TE. Finally, we fit a stochastic meta-frontier (SMF) model to the data and use it to compare TE across the two farmer groups. The analysis showed that CA farmers exhibit greater TE levels than non-CA farmers. This can be attributed to enhancements in farm management, leading to 8% and 9% increases in their productivity and TE, respectively. Thus, there is a case for policymakers to strengthen programs delivering CA technologies that improve food security in Bangladesh.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 1","pages":"125-145"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135859103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effect of public stockholding on wheat price dynamics in India: A quantile autoregression approach","authors":"Ashutosh K. Tripathi, Ashok K. Mishra","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12536","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12536","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The study investigates the effects of public stockholding on price dynamics and volatility in the Indian wheat market. A quantile autoregression method is used as a flexible representation of price dynamics and is based on a reduced-form methodology. The findings reveal that public stockholdings have significant price effects, but the results vary significantly in price distribution. Further, we show local dynamic stability in the price distribution for all quantiles. However, dynamic adjustments tend to be qualitatively different across stockholding regimes, suggesting that price stability becomes less pronounced when stocks are low. Given the limitation of public stockholding in smoothing price fluctuations over time and the program's high costs, our analysis highlights the need to explore other alternative mechanisms such as trade, for example, in achieving stability in food prices.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"68 1","pages":"168-185"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136212706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An economic assesssment of options for operating within plantation forestry water entitlements and tightening cap and trade policy","authors":"Courtney M. Regan, J. Connor, Md. Sayed Iftekhar","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12508","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45497771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America","authors":"D. Miljkovic, Cole Goetz","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12504","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62661854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Size matters: Optimal management of dynamic systems with varying size","authors":"T. Ancev, K. Madhavan","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12500","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62661822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis","authors":"Will Martin, Nicholas Minot","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12498","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12498","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using error-correction models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"66 4","pages":"753-774"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2022-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44366567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Global commodity market disruption and the fallout","authors":"Shon Ferguson, David Ubilava","doi":"10.1111/1467-8489.12497","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8489.12497","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The war in the breadbasket of Europe, which spawned at the heels of the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, sent major cereal prices spiralling upward. The unprecedented sequence of events leading to and including the war has tested the resilience of global commodity markets and the craftsmanship of policymakers. While the circumstances may differ, the disruption of global commodity markets is not exactly uncharted territory, with many examples and experiences from near and distant history. By showcasing anecdotal and empirical evidence from the past, this study puts the current crisis and its consequences in perspective and offers an outlook with a specific focus on low- and middle-income countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":55427,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics","volume":"66 4","pages":"737-752"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2022-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8489.12497","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48766008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}