Decision Support Systems最新文献_第8页

Decision support system for policy-making: Quantifying skill and chance in daily fantasy sports 决策支持系统：量化每日奇幻体育中的技巧和机会

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114237

Aishvarya , Tirthatanmoy Das , U. Dinesh Kumar

{"title":"Decision support system for policy-making: Quantifying skill and chance in daily fantasy sports","authors":"Aishvarya , Tirthatanmoy Das , U. Dinesh Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114237","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We explore the question of skill versus chance dominance in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), which has been the subject of numerous legal disputes around the world. Our study examines whether a contestant's winnability in DFS is influenced by factors reflecting skills using cricket-based daily fantasy contest data and a true fixed effects stochastic frontier model. We find that skill contributes significantly towards winnability in five ways. First, contestants performing well in the past do better in the present. Second, gaining more game experiences improves performance. Third, contestants who participated recently, tend to exhibit higher winnability. Fourth, selecting an appropriate contest type enhances winnability. Fifth, the large estimated signal-to-noise ratio indicates that the unobserved skill measured by a non-negative error has a much greater impact on winnability than the regular two-sided random shocks. These results are robust to varying specifications and subsets of data. Decision makers and regulators can use the model presented in the study to distinguish skill-dominant DFS from chance-dominant DFS.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 114237"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141027909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of doctors' facial attractiveness on users' choices in online health communities: A stereotype content and social role perspective 医生的面部吸引力对在线健康社区用户选择的影响：刻板印象内容和社会角色视角

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114246

Xing Zhang , Yuanyuan Wang , Quan Xiao , Jingguo Wang

{"title":"The impact of doctors' facial attractiveness on users' choices in online health communities: A stereotype content and social role perspective","authors":"Xing Zhang , Yuanyuan Wang , Quan Xiao , Jingguo Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2024.114246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study examines the impact of doctors' facial attractiveness on users' choices in online health communities (OHCs). We conducted a field study using a sample of 14,897 doctors registered on a Chinese OHC. The results indicate a significant negative relationship between the facial attractiveness of doctors and the number of visits to their homepage by users. However, this relationship only holds true for male surgeons and female internal medicine doctors, not for female surgeons or male internal medicine doctors. These findings suggest the possible presence of gender-specialty bias in the influence of facial attractiveness on patients' decision-making. To further investigate how facial attractiveness influences users' inclination to choose a particular doctor, we develop our research model drawing upon the stereotype content and social role perspective. Through a laboratory experiment, we found that OHC users' perceptions of doctors' warmth and competence act as mediating factors in the relationship between facial attractiveness and user choice. Additionally, this relationship is influenced by stereotypical gender-specialty fit.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 114246"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140879829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Avatars and organizational knowledge sharing 头像和组织知识共享

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114245

Dennis D. Fehrenbacher , Martin Weisner

引用次数: 0

Transparency in design science research 设计科学研究的透明度

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114236

Alan R. Hevner , Jeffrey Parsons , Alfred Benedikt Brendel , Roman Lukyanenko , Verena Tiefenbeck , Monica Chiarini Tremblay , Jan vom Brocke

引用次数: 0

When do consumers buy during online promotions? A theoretical and empirical investigation 消费者何时会在网络促销期间购买？理论与实证研究

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114233

Tao Zhu , Cheng Nie , Zhengrui Jiang , Xiangpei Hu

{"title":"When do consumers buy during online promotions? A theoretical and empirical investigation","authors":"Tao Zhu , Cheng Nie , Zhengrui Jiang , Xiangpei Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2024.114233","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An increasing number of merchants are using online platforms to promote their products; however, much is still unknown about how consumers behave in response to online promotions. This study investigates factors affecting consumers' purchase intentions and purchase behaviors during online promotions. We classify consumers into two categories, one mainly affected by the time pressure of promotion and the other primarily subject to the effect of memory decay. We then propose an analytical model to capture the market demand during an online promotion. Our analytical result indicates that there exist four types of demand patterns during online promotions, i.e., U-shape, inverted U-shape, monotonically increasing, and monotonically decreasing. We subsequently explore factors that can affect the type of demand patterns, such as the product type (nondurable and durable goods), duration of the promotion, discount level, and product category. Our empirical analyses of real-world promotion and sales data from a B2C e-commerce platform validate the analytical results. The type of demand curves depends on the characteristics of the goods and promotions. For instance, the inverted U-shape demand curve appears only for nondurable consumer goods, whereas the U-shape curve exists only for durable consumer goods. Finally, in a series of counterfactual analyses based on the proposed model, we show how revenues change during an online promotion in response to varying parameters of promotions and derive some interesting observations. These findings provide important insights to online retailers and can help them better understand their consumers and optimize their product promotion strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 114233"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140825237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Explaining the model and feature dependencies by decomposition of the Shapley value 通过分解沙普利值解释模型和特征的依赖关系

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114234

Joran Michiels , Johan Suykens , Maarten De Vos

{"title":"Explaining the model and feature dependencies by decomposition of the Shapley value","authors":"Joran Michiels , Johan Suykens , Maarten De Vos","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2024.114234","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Shapley values have become one of the go-to methods to explain complex models to end-users. They provide a model agnostic post-hoc explanation with foundations in game theory: what is the worth of a player (in machine learning, a feature value) in the objective function (the output of the complex machine learning model). One downside is that they always require outputs of the model when some features are missing. These are usually computed by taking the expectation over the missing features. This however introduces a non-trivial choice: do we condition on the unknown features or not? In this paper we examine this question and claim that they represent two different explanations which are valid for different end-users: one that explains the model and one that explains the model combined with the feature dependencies in the data. We propose a new algorithmic approach to combine both explanations, removing the burden of choice and enhancing the explanatory power of Shapley values, and show that it achieves intuitive results on simple problems. We apply our method to two real-world datasets and discuss the explanations. Finally, we demonstrate how our method is either equivalent or superior to state-to-of-art Shapley value implementations while simultaneously allowing for increased insight into the model-data structure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 114234"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140825236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The information content of financial statement fraud risk: An ensemble learning approach 财务报表欺诈风险的信息内容：集合学习法

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114231

Wei Duan , Nan Hu , Fujing Xue

引用次数: 0

Freedom of speech or freedom of reach? Strategies for mitigating malicious content in social networks 言论自由还是传播自由？减少社交网络恶意内容的策略

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114235

Saurav Chakraborty , Sandeep Goyal , Annamina Rieder , Agnieszka Onuchowska , Donald J. Berndt

{"title":"Freedom of speech or freedom of reach? Strategies for mitigating malicious content in social networks","authors":"Saurav Chakraborty , Sandeep Goyal , Annamina Rieder , Agnieszka Onuchowska , Donald J. Berndt","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2024.114235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Malicious content threatens the integrity and quality of content in social networks. Research and practice have experimented with network intervention strategies to curb malicious content propagation. These strategies lack efficiency, target malicious content propagators, and abridge freedom of speech. We draw upon the preferential attachment literature and cognitive load theory to employ the mechanisms of network formation, information sharing, and limited human cognitive capacities to propose an alternative feed management strategy—Preferentiality Dampened Feed Management. We compare and contrast this strategy against other established strategies using an agent-based model that utilizes empirical data from Twitter and findings from the prior literature. The results from our two experiments suggest that our proposed strategy is more effective in curbing malicious content propagation than other established strategies. Our work has important implications for the network interventions literature and practical implications for platform providers, social media users, and society.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 114235"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140843196","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Explainable Learning Analytics: Assessing the stability of student success prediction models by means of explainable AI 可解释的学习分析：通过可解释人工智能评估学生成功预测模型的稳定性

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114229

Elena Tiukhova , Pavani Vemuri , Nidia López Flores , Anna Sigridur Islind , María Óskarsdóttir , Stephan Poelmans , Bart Baesens , Monique Snoeck

{"title":"Explainable Learning Analytics: Assessing the stability of student success prediction models by means of explainable AI","authors":"Elena Tiukhova , Pavani Vemuri , Nidia López Flores , Anna Sigridur Islind , María Óskarsdóttir , Stephan Poelmans , Bart Baesens , Monique Snoeck","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2024.114229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Beyond managing student dropout, higher education stakeholders need decision support to consistently influence the student learning process to keep students motivated, engaged, and successful. At the course level, the combination of predictive analytics and self-regulation theory can help instructors determine the best study advice and allow learners to better self-regulate and determine how they want to learn. The best performing techniques are often black-box models that favor performance over interpretability and are heavily influenced by course contexts. In this study, we argue that explainable AI has the potential not only to uncover the reasons behind model decisions, but also to reveal their stability across contexts, effectively bridging the gap between predictive and explanatory learning analytics (LA). In contributing to decision support systems research, this study (1) leverages traditional techniques, such as concept drift and performance drift, to investigate the stability of student success prediction models over time; (2) uses Shapley Additive explanations in a novel way to explore the stability of extracted feature importance rankings generated for these models; (3) generates new insights that emerge from stable features across cohorts, enabling teachers to determine study advice. We believe this study makes a strong contribution to education research at large and expands the field of LA by augmenting the interpretability and explainability of prediction algorithms and ensuring their applicability in changing contexts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 114229"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140879828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling the evolution of collective overreaction in dynamic online product diffusion networks 动态在线产品传播网络中集体过度反应的演变建模

IF 7.5 1区计算机科学

Decision Support Systems Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2024.114232

Xiaochao Wei , Yanfei Zhang , Xin (Robert) Luo

{"title":"Modeling the evolution of collective overreaction in dynamic online product diffusion networks","authors":"Xiaochao Wei , Yanfei Zhang , Xin (Robert) Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.dss.2024.114232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2024.114232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the development of e-commerce, collective overreactions such as buying frenzy have become prominent. However, studies have rarely investigated the mechanism of irrational consumer behavior at the group level. To investigate the evolution of collective overreaction in dynamic online product diffusion networks, we employed a sequential multiple-methods approach. A conceptual model is constructed to capture the influence of social network dynamic evolution on individual irrationality. An agent-based model (ABM) under different network dynamic growth mechanisms is implemented and verified. The findings revealed the following. In external dynamic growth mechanisms, key opinion consumer (KOC) connection can lead to positive collective overreaction (i.e., the adoption rate of consumer groups spikes). This effect fades as the probability of KOC connection increases and stabilizes as the node change rate decreases. Random connection is prone to negative collective overreaction (i.e., a sudden and sharp decline in the adoption rate of consumer groups), and key opinion leader (KOL) connection exhibits both positive and negative collective overreaction. Increasing the edge change rate increases the frequency of negative collective overreaction in KOL connections. In internal dynamic growth mechanisms, KOL and KOC connections are prone to negative collective overreaction; increasing the edge change rate can reduce the frequency of negative collective overreaction in KOL overreaction, and an appropriate edge change rate can inhibit the emergence of negative collective overreaction in KOC connection. This research contributes to the area of internet product marketing and provides a new basic framework through which to combine psychology and the ABM.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55181,"journal":{"name":"Decision Support Systems","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 114232"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140650509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0