Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics最新文献

Convex optimization of initial perturbations toward quantitative weather control 对初始扰动进行凸优化，实现定量天气控制

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2405.19546

Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, Shunji Kotsuki

{"title":"Convex optimization of initial perturbations toward quantitative weather control","authors":"Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, Shunji Kotsuki","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2405.19546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2405.19546","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study proposes introducing convex optimization to find initial perturbations of atmospheric models for realizing specified changes in subsequent forecasts. In the proposed method, we formulate and solve an inverse problem to find effective perturbations in atmospheric variables so that controlled variables satisfy specified changes at a specified time. The proposed method first constructs a sensitivity matrix of controlled variables, such as accumulated precipitation, to the initial atmospheric variables, such as temperature and humidity, through sensitivity analysis using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The sensitivity matrix is used to solve the inverse problem as convex optimization, in which a global optimal solution can be found computationally efficiently. The proposed method was validated through a benchmark warm bubble experiment using an NWP model. The experiments showed that identified perturbation successfully realized specified spatial distributions of accumulated precipitation. These results demonstrated the possibility of controlling the real atmosphere by solving inverse problems and adding small perturbations to atmospheric states.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141567737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches 使用数据驱动方法选择和加权动力学模型

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.5194/npg-31-303-2024

Pierre Le Bras, Florian Sévellec, Pierre Tandeo, Juan Ruiz, Pierre Ailliot

{"title":"Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches","authors":"Pierre Le Bras, Florian Sévellec, Pierre Tandeo, Juan Ruiz, Pierre Ailliot","doi":"10.5194/npg-31-303-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-303-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In geosciences, multi-model ensembles are helpful to explore the robustness of a range of results. To obtain a synthetic and improved representation of the studied dynamic system, the models are usually weighted. The simplest method, namely the model democracy, gives equal weights to all models, while more advanced approaches base weights on agreement with available observations. Here, we focus on determining weights for various versions of an idealized model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This is done by assessing their performance against synthetic observations (generated from one of the model versions) within a data assimilation framework using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In contrast to traditional data assimilation, we implement data-driven forecasts using the analog method based on catalogs of short-term trajectories. This approach allows us to efficiently emulate the model's dynamics while keeping computational costs low. For each model version, we compute a local performance metric, known as the contextual model evidence, to compare observations and model forecasts. This metric, based on the innovation likelihood, is sensitive to differences in model dynamics and considers forecast and observation uncertainties. Finally, the weights are calculated using both model performance and model co-dependency and then evaluated on averages of long-term simulations. Results show good performance in identifying numerical simulations that best replicate observed short-term variations. Additionally, it outperforms benchmark approaches such as strategies based on model democracy or climatology when reconstructing missing distributions. These findings encourage the application of the proposed methodology to more complex datasets in the future, like climate simulations.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"124 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-dimensional, Multi-Constraint Seismic Inversion of Acoustic Impedance Using Fuzzy Clustering Concepts 利用模糊聚类概念对声阻抗进行多维、多约束地震反演

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.5194/npg-2024-12

Saber Jahanjooy, Hosein Hashemi, Majid Bagheri

{"title":"Multi-dimensional, Multi-Constraint Seismic Inversion of Acoustic Impedance Using Fuzzy Clustering Concepts","authors":"Saber Jahanjooy, Hosein Hashemi, Majid Bagheri","doi":"10.5194/npg-2024-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2024-12","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In the process of transforming seismic data into vital information about subsurface rock and fluid properties, seismic inversion is a crucial tool. This motivates researchers to develop several seismic inversion methods and software. Since the seismic data are band-limited, seismic inversion is ill-posed, and the results are not unique, each method tries to use initial information and assumes expected conditions for the results. Satisfying a general low-frequency trend and having a smooth model or step-wise results are some of the assumptions that these methods add as constraints to the inversion process. Well-logs, geological studies, and models from other geophysical methods can add important insight into the seismic inversion results. We introduce an objective function that applies the clustering properties of the prior information as a constraint to the seismic inversion process as well as other common constraints. An optimal solution to the objective function is explained. We applied the Gustafson-Kessel fuzzy C-means as one of the possible clustering methods for clustering term. Numerical synthetic and real data examples show the efficiency of the proposed method in the inversion of seismic data. In addition to the acoustic impedance model, the proposed seismic inversion method creates reliable deconvolved and denoised versions of the input seismic data. Additionally, the membership section output from the inversion process shows high potential in the seismic interpretation. Further research on selecting an optimum fuzziness, updating wavelet, and the potential of the membership sections to track horizons, distinguish sequences and layers, identify possible contents of the layers, and other possible applications are recommended.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141523560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improving ensemble data assimilation through Probit-space Ensemble Size Expansion for Gaussian Copulas (PESE-GC) 通过高斯协方差的 Probit 空间集合规模扩展（PESE-GC）改进集合数据同化

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.5194/npg-31-287-2024

Man-Yau Chan

{"title":"Improving ensemble data assimilation through Probit-space Ensemble Size Expansion for Gaussian Copulas (PESE-GC)","authors":"Man-Yau Chan","doi":"10.5194/npg-31-287-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-287-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Small forecast ensemble sizes (< 100) are common in the ensemble data assimilation (EnsDA) component of geophysical forecast systems, thus limiting the error-constraining power of EnsDA. This study proposes an efficient and embarrassingly parallel method to generate additional ensemble members: the Probit-space Ensemble Size Expansion for Gaussian Copulas (PESE-GC; “peace gee see”). Such members are called “virtual members”. PESE-GC utilizes the users' knowledge of the marginal distributions of forecast model variables. Virtual members can be generated from any (potentially non-Gaussian) multivariate forecast distribution that has a Gaussian copula. PESE-GC's impact on EnsDA is evaluated using the 40-variable Lorenz 1996 model, several EnsDA algorithms, several observation operators, a range of EnsDA cycling intervals, and a range of forecast ensemble sizes. Significant improvements to EnsDA (p<0.01) are observed when either (1) the forecast ensemble size is small (≤20 members), (2) the user selects marginal distributions that improve the forecast model variable statistics, and/or (3) the rank histogram filter is used with non-parametric priors in high-forecast-spread situations. These results motivate development and testing of PESE-GC for EnsDA with high-order geophysical models.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141523559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A quest for precipitation attractors in weather radar archives 寻找天气雷达档案中的降水吸引子

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.5194/npg-31-259-2024

Loris Foresti, Bernat Puigdomènech Treserras, Daniele Nerini, Aitor Atencia, Marco Gabella, Ioannis V. Sideris, Urs Germann, Isztar Zawadzki

引用次数: 0

Exploring the influence of spatio-temporal scale differences in Coupled Data Assimilation 探索耦合数据同化中时空尺度差异的影响

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1843

Lilian Garcia-Oliva, Alberto Carrassi, François Counillon

{"title":"Exploring the influence of spatio-temporal scale differences in Coupled Data Assimilation","authors":"Lilian Garcia-Oliva, Alberto Carrassi, François Counillon","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-2024-1843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1843","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Identifying the optimal strategy for initializing coupled climate prediction systems is challenging due to the spatio-temporal scale separation and disparities in the observational network. We aim to clarify when strongly coupled data assimilation (SCDA) is preferable to weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA). We use a two-components coupled Lorenz-63 system and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to compare WCDA and SCDA for diverse spatio-temporal scale separations and observational networks – only in the atmosphere, the ocean, or both components. When both components are observed, SCDA and WCDA yield similar performances. However, sometimes SCDA performs marginally worse due to its higher sensitivity (as opposed to WCDA) to key approximations in the EnKF – linear analysis update and sampling error. When observations are only in one of the components, SCDA systematically outperforms WCDA. The spatio-temporal scale separation determines SCDA's performance in this scenario and the largest improvements are found when the observed component has a smaller spatial scale. This suggests that SCDA of fast atmospheric observations can potentially improve the large-slow ocean component. Conversely, observations of the fine ocean can improve the large atmosphere at a comparable temporal scale. However, when both components are highly chaotic, and the observed component's spatial scale is the largest, SCDA does not improve over WCDA. In such a case, the cross-updates may become too sensitive to data assimilation approximations.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations 评估全球数据驱动天气模式在挪威站点进行和未进行概率后处理的预报情况

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.5194/npg-31-247-2024

John Bjørnar Bremnes, Thomas N. Nipen, Ivar A. Seierstad

{"title":"Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations","authors":"John Bjørnar Bremnes, Thomas N. Nipen, Ivar A. Seierstad","doi":"10.5194/npg-31-247-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. During the last 2 years, tremendous progress has been made in global data-driven weather models trained on numerical weather prediction (NWP) reanalysis data. The most recent models trained on the ERA5 reanalysis at 0.25° resolution demonstrate forecast quality on par with ECMWF's high-resolution model with respect to a wide selection of verification metrics. In this study, one of these models, Pangu-Weather, is compared to several NWP models with and without probabilistic post-processing for 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed forecasting at 183 Norwegian SYNOP (surface synoptic observation) stations up to +60 h ahead. The NWP models included are the ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS and the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble model MEPS with 2.5 km spatial resolution. Results show that the performances of the global models are on the same level, with Pangu-Weather being slightly better than the ECMWF models for temperature and slightly worse for wind speed. The MEPS model clearly provided the best forecasts for both parameters. The post-processing improved the forecast quality considerably for all models but to a larger extent for the coarse-resolution global models due to stronger systematic deficiencies in these. Apart from this, the main characteristics in the scores were more or less the same with and without post-processing. Our results thus confirm the conclusions from other studies that global data-driven models are promising for operational weather forecasting.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"206 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141523561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Characterisation of Dansgaard-Oeschger events in palaeoclimate time series using the Matrix Profile 利用矩阵剖面确定古气候时间序列中丹斯加德-奥斯赫格事件的特征

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.5194/npg-2024-13

Susana Barbosa, Maria Eduarda Silva, Denis-Didier Rousseau

{"title":"Characterisation of Dansgaard-Oeschger events in palaeoclimate time series using the Matrix Profile","authors":"Susana Barbosa, Maria Eduarda Silva, Denis-Didier Rousseau","doi":"10.5194/npg-2024-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2024-13","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Palaeoclimate time series, reflecting the state of Earth's climate in the distant past, display occasionally very large and rapid shifts, evidencing abrupt climate variability. The identification and characterisation of these abrupt transitions in palaeoclimate records is of particular interest as it allows the understanding of millennial climate variability and the identification of potential tipping points in the context of current climate change. Methods that are able to characterise these events in an objective and automatic way, in a single time series or across two proxy records, are therefore of particular interest. In our study the matrix profile approach is used to describe Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, abrupt warmings detected in Greenland ice core, and Northern Hemisphere marine and continental records. The results indicate that canonical events DO-19 and DO-20, occurring at around 72 and 76 ka, are the most similar events over the past 110,000 years. These transitions are characterised by matching transitions corresponding to events DO-1, DO-8 and DO-12. These transitions are abrupt, resulting in a rapid shift to warmer conditions, followed by a gradual return to cold conditions. The joint analysis of the δ18O and Ca2+ time series indicates that the transition corresponding to the DO-19 event is the most similar event across the two time series.","PeriodicalId":54714,"journal":{"name":"Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics","volume":"130 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141149588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Clustering of settling microswimmers in turbulence 湍流中沉降的微型游泳者集群

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.5194/npg-31-229-2024

Jingran Qiu, Zhiwen Cui, Eric Climent, Lihao Zhao

引用次数: 0

Solving a North-type energy balance model using boundary integral methods 用边界积分法求解北方型能量平衡模型

IF 2.2 4区地球科学

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.5194/npg-2024-11

Aksel Samuelsberg, Per Kristen Jakobsen

引用次数: 0