Convex optimization of initial perturbations toward quantitative weather control

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2405.19546

Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, Shunji Kotsuki

{"title":"Convex optimization of initial perturbations toward quantitative weather control","authors":"Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, Shunji Kotsuki","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2405.19546","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<strong>Abstract.</strong> This study proposes introducing convex optimization to find initial perturbations of atmospheric models for realizing specified changes in subsequent forecasts. In the proposed method, we formulate and solve an inverse problem to find effective perturbations in atmospheric variables so that controlled variables satisfy specified changes at a specified time. The proposed method first constructs a sensitivity matrix of controlled variables, such as accumulated precipitation, to the initial atmospheric variables, such as temperature and humidity, through sensitivity analysis using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The sensitivity matrix is used to solve the inverse problem as convex optimization, in which a global optimal solution can be found computationally efficiently. The proposed method was validated through a benchmark warm bubble experiment using an NWP model. The experiments showed that identified perturbation successfully realized specified spatial distributions of accumulated precipitation. These results demonstrated the possibility of controlling the real atmosphere by solving inverse problems and adding small perturbations to atmospheric states.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2405.19546","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract. This study proposes introducing convex optimization to find initial perturbations of atmospheric models for realizing specified changes in subsequent forecasts. In the proposed method, we formulate and solve an inverse problem to find effective perturbations in atmospheric variables so that controlled variables satisfy specified changes at a specified time. The proposed method first constructs a sensitivity matrix of controlled variables, such as accumulated precipitation, to the initial atmospheric variables, such as temperature and humidity, through sensitivity analysis using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The sensitivity matrix is used to solve the inverse problem as convex optimization, in which a global optimal solution can be found computationally efficiently. The proposed method was validated through a benchmark warm bubble experiment using an NWP model. The experiments showed that identified perturbation successfully realized specified spatial distributions of accumulated precipitation. These results demonstrated the possibility of controlling the real atmosphere by solving inverse problems and adding small perturbations to atmospheric states.

查看原文本刊更多论文

对初始扰动进行凸优化，实现定量天气控制

摘要本研究建议引入凸优化来寻找大气模型的初始扰动，以实现后续预报的特定变化。在所提出的方法中，我们提出并解决了一个反问题，即找到大气变量的有效扰动，使受控变量在指定时间满足指定变化。建议的方法首先通过使用数值天气预报（NWP）模型进行灵敏度分析，构建受控变量（如累积降水量）对初始大气变量（如温度和湿度）的灵敏度矩阵。灵敏度矩阵被用于以凸优化方式求解逆问题，在此过程中可以高效地找到全局最优解。通过使用 NWP 模型进行基准暖气泡实验，对所提出的方法进行了验证。实验表明，确定的扰动成功地实现了累积降水的指定空间分布。这些结果表明，通过求解逆问题并对大气状态添加小扰动，可以控制真实大气。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.