Transportation Research Part B-Methodological最新文献

{"title":"On the calibration of stochastic car following models","authors":"Shirui Zhou ,&nbsp;Shiteng Zheng ,&nbsp;Tu Xu ,&nbsp;Martin Treiber ,&nbsp;Junfang Tian ,&nbsp;Rui Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent empirical and theoretical findings highlight the critical role of stochasticity in car-following (CF) dynamics. Although several stochastic CF models have been proposed, their calibration remains relatively underexplored compared to deterministic models. This article addresses this gap by utilizing four stochastic CF models to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of two existing calibration methods—minimizing multiple runs mean error (MRMean) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) as well as a newly proposed method, minimizing multiple runs minimum (MRMin) error, based on synthetic trajectories. Results show that MRMean and MLE exhibit significant biases in estimating the ground truth values of stochastic model parameters, while MRMin achieves nearly zero estimation errors. Specifically, MRMean eliminates stochasticity, transforming models into deterministic ones, whereas MRMin successfully separates aleatoric errors caused by randomness and epistemic errors caused by parameters, as demonstrated through a theoretical error analysis. Furthermore, CF experiments conducted in an identical driving environment reveal that differences in spacing are more pronounced than differences in speed. Calibration against experimental trajectories verifies the conclusions drawn from synthetic trajectories and theoretical analysis. Additionally, the covariance matrix of parameters is estimated using bootstrap sampling, highlighting MRMin’s ability to capture the inherent stochasticity of CF behavior. These findings deepen our understanding of CF stochasticity and provide a robust framework for calibrating stochastic models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103224"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143869560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government persuasion strategies for transport infrastructure adaptation: Spillover effects and social welfare impacts","authors":"Shiyuan Zheng ,&nbsp;Changmin Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103221","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103221","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the government's strategies to persuade multiple transport facility operators to undertake adaptation projects, particularly within the Asian doctrine governance regime, where the government exerts significant influence over facility operations. We develop a Bayesian persuasion model to analyze these strategies, focusing on the spillover effects among operators' projects and their externalities (both positive and negative) on social welfare. Our findings suggest that a straightforward signaling strategy, which directly advises operators on whether to invest, can effectively convey disaster information. When there are no spillover effects and the adaptation projects positively impact social welfare, the government should fully disclose disaster information and persuade operators based on their willingness to invest. However, higher adaptation costs or larger spillover effects complicate the government's persuasion efforts. To demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical framework, we apply our Bayesian persuasion model to the case of port adaptation in the Greater Bay Area in China. The model calibration results indicate that when operators act independently, larger spillover effects can lead to either lower or higher social welfare, depending on whether the adaptation projects have positive or negative impacts, respectively. When adaptation projects positively affect social welfare, operators' alliance strategies of joint adaptation investment or resource sharing enhance social welfare. If spillover effects exist among operators, a benefit distribution scheme based on the Shapley value can maintain stability within the grand coalition of all operators. Finally, increasing adaptation costs have uneven impacts on different operators, with those facing the highest costs being more likely to be excluded from the government's persuasion efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103221"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Optimal private housing supply under various schemes of public housing provision","authors":"Yue Huai ,&nbsp;Hong K. Lo ,&nbsp;Anming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103232","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Allocating land for public housing is an essential step in providing affordable housing for low-income citizens, as practiced in Hong Kong and Singapore. Locating public housing projects in suburban areas causes a spatial mismatch between public housing tenants and job opportunities, while placing public units in urban areas exacerbates the shortage of urban land, which may result in a more compact urban development that worsens the living conditions of urban private flats. We extend the stochastic bid-rent framework to derive the optimal supply decisions of profit-seeking developers under various schemes of public housing provision. The residence and travel choices of heterogeneous households are simulated under the optimal supply decisions. We find that placing a certain number of public flats in urban areas will lead to a higher profit for developers. With more public housing in urban areas, developers condense the urban development and provide more urban micro flats to capture the privilege of accessibility, which lowers the quality of private urban flats. On the other hand, compact development accommodates more residents in urban areas, thereby alleviating congestion in suburban areas. This improvement in accessibility, however, results in rent increases for suburban private flat residents, who will suffer a loss of consumer surplus. Similarly, policy measures that aim to improve living standards or shorten the commuting time for residents (e.g., imposing restrictions on minimum flat size or upgrading suburban transport facilities) may affect the welfare of other stakeholders adversely. Thus, it is unlikely that a land allocation that improves the welfare of all stakeholders can be found, rendering the importance of considering this trade-off judiciously.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103232"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robust control for connected automated vehicle platoon with multiple-predecessor following topology considering communication loss","authors":"Lei Yang ,&nbsp;Zhanbo Sun ,&nbsp;Yafei Liu ,&nbsp;Linbin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103212","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103212","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper presents a robust control method for effectively managing uncertainties and communication loss in a connected automated vehicle (CAV) platoon under the multiple-predecessor following (MPF) topology. The proposed approach incorporates uncertainties in vehicle dynamics, such as vehicle parameters and environmental resistances, into the closed-loop platoon system to enhance the robustness of the platoon controller. The impacts of communication loss are analyzed specifically for the MPF topology, considering potential disruptions in information flow among different numbers and locations of predecessors in a CAV platoon. A novel formulation of desired spacing, suitable for CAV platoon with the MPF topology under communication loss, is then developed based on the constant time headway (CTH) policy. Furthermore, the paper derives and proves the sufficient and necessary conditions for the local stability of the proposed robust platoon controller using Kharitonov's theorem. The sufficient conditions for string stability are also discussed through frequency-domain analysis and combined with the Lyapunov function to determine the relationship between average dwell time and maximum allowable delay, ensuring platoon string stability under switching communication topology. These conditions establish the stability region for the robust controller of a CAV platoon with varying locations and numbers of unconnected predecessors. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the stability region of the controller diminishes as the number of unconnected predecessors increases, with the greatest impact observed when the communication with the nearest connected predecessor is lost. Additionally, the control performance is affected by uncertain dynamics and the range of time headway, resulting in a significant reduction in the stability region. The findings highlight the importance of fine-tuning control parameters within the stability region guided by the derived stability conditions to ensure both local and string stability of CAV platoons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103212"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A bi-level optimization model for project scheduling and traffic flow routing in railway networks","authors":"Tomas Lidén ,&nbsp;Filip Kristofersson ,&nbsp;Martin Aronsson","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Long-term tactical infrastructure planning for a transportation network consists of deciding on renewals and major maintenance works. Such projects constitute large budget volumes and will impair the available traffic capacity during their execution, especially for railway systems. Quantitative methods that schedule and coordinate infrastructure projects together with traffic flow adaptations is however largely lacking today.</div><div>This paper addresses the joint planning of temporary capacity restrictions and traffic flow adaptions during track work closures, by proposing a bi-level optimization model which separates the problem into project scheduling (upper level) and traffic assignment (lower level). The latter model uses a novel traffic flow formulation for routing volumes of trains through the transportation network under the capacity restrictions given by the project scheduling. An aggregated network is used together with time discretized into uniform periods, which makes it possible to treat large national planning problems with a planning horizon of up to a year and a period length of a couple hours. The computational properties are evaluated, both for the individual models, and for their joint usage. Furthermore, results from applying the models on two case studies, concerning Northern and South-Western Sweden, are presented.</div><div>The main conclusion is that the model formulations are capable of solving realistic planning cases and to provide support for capacity planners at an infrastructure manager, even for a large national railway. The results show that a good overview over the collective traffic impact is obtained, but also that details of particular traffic relations or capacity usage over individual network links and their variation over time can be studied. One major deficiency has been identified in the flow-based traffic assignment model, which can lead to incoherent train flows over long traveling distances and many time periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103213"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143852222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nonparametric mixed logit model with market-level parameters estimated from market share data","authors":"Xiyuan Ren ,&nbsp;Joseph Y.J. Chow ,&nbsp;Prateek Bansal","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a nonparametric mixed logit model that is estimated using market-level choice share data. The model treats each market as an agent and represents taste heterogeneity through market-specific parameters by solving a multiagent inverse utility maximization problem, addressing the limitations of existing market-level choice models with parametric estimation. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of our model in terms of estimation time, estimation accuracy, and out-of-sample predictive accuracy. In a real data application, we estimate the travel mode choice of 53.55 million trips made by 19.53 million residents in New York State. These trips are aggregated based on population segments and census block group-level origin-destination (OD) pairs, resulting in 120,740 markets. We benchmark our model against multinomial logit (MNL), nested logit (NL), inverse product differentiation logit (IPDL), and the BLP models. The results show that the proposed model improves the out-of-sample accuracy from 65.30 % to 81.78 %, with a computation time less than one-tenth of that taken to estimate the BLP model. The price elasticities and diversion ratios retrieved from our model and benchmark models exhibit similar substitution patterns. Moreover, the market-level parameters estimated by our model provide additional insights and facilitate their seamless integration into supply-side optimization models for transportation design. By measuring the compensating variation for the driving mode, we found that a $9 congestion toll would impact roughly 60 % of the total travelers. As an application of supply-demand integration, we showed that a 50 % discount of transit fare could bring a maximum ridership increase of 9402 trips per day under a budget of $50,000 per day.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103220"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robust train carriage planning for mixed transportation of passengers and uncertain freights in a high-speed railway network","authors":"Chuntian Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhou Xu ,&nbsp;Lixing Yang ,&nbsp;Ziyou Gao ,&nbsp;Yuan Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mixed transportation of passengers and freights is an effective strategy for reducing environmental pollution and improving the service level of railway systems. This study addresses the problem of robust train composition and carriage arrangement for the mixed transportation of passengers and freights in a high-speed railway (HSR) network. Specifically, a network-based robust optimization (RO) model is introduced to address the uncertainty in freight demand while considering deterministic passenger demand. The model utilizes space–time network representations to characterize the movements of passengers and freights. To account for various potential scenarios, a polyhedral uncertainty set is integrated into the model. Moreover, we develop a novel exact algorithm called B-C&amp;CG, which utilizes the strengths of Benders decomposition for solving the deterministic passenger sub-problem and the strengths of column-and-constraint generation (C&amp;CG) for solving the robust freight sub-problem. This provides an efficient solution to the RO model formulated for our problem. The objective is to optimize the train operating cost, passenger generalized travel cost, and the worst-case freight travel cost simultaneously. Additionally, a series of numerical experiments based on the real-world instance in a HSR network are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the developed B-C&amp;CG algorithm and the advantages of the proposed RO model. The results demonstrate that (i) the newly developed algorithm outperforms both the Benders decomposition algorithm and the hybrid algorithm (B-BC&amp;CG) in terms of computing time, where the latter differs from B-C&amp;CG by using both Benders decomposition and C&amp;CG to handle the robust freight sub-problem; (ii) the degree of conservatism can be controlled by altering parameters related to uncertain freight demand; (iii) the proposed RO model can improve the worst-case solutions under polyhedral uncertainty set, compared to nominal and stochastic programming models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103216"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Managing uncertain traffic and societal externalities in a road and rail network: Pricing versus Permits","authors":"Kexin Geng ,&nbsp;Zhiyuan Liang ,&nbsp;Erik T. Verhoef ,&nbsp;Yacan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the relative performance of congestion pricing versus tradable permits for a congested bi-modal transport system with traffic externalities, that affect passengers only, and societal externalities that go beyond the passengers. The point in this case is infection risks, as in the pandemic. We study this relative performance for the case where there are uncertainties on both traffic externalities and societal externalities. Earlier literature considered the relative performance of prices and permits for the case with only stochastic traffic externalities. The numerical results indicate that, given how infection risks are likely to affect social cost functions, pricing regulation can be expected to perform better than a tradable permit scheme when there are uncertainties on private infection cost, especially when the uncertainties on the marginal private infection cost increase. However, the government can enhance the performance of tradable permits by allowing the bankability of permits, or by actively engaging in buying or selling permits to optimize the price in response to the realization of stochastic parameters. The results provide theoretical support for policymakers to choose the optimal instruments to internalize the multiple external costs when uncertainties exist.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103214"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143838914","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Joint bus dispatching and bus bridging timetabling for mass rapid transit disruption management","authors":"Li Zhang ,&nbsp;Qiang Meng ,&nbsp;Hua Wang ,&nbsp;Bin Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mass rapid transit (MRT) systems play a pivotal role in urban mobility services but are frequently susceptible to various disruptions. Bus bridging service is a widely-applied substitute transit service in response to MRT disruptions, which requires a significant number of buses to transport stranded MRT passengers. In practical applications, these buses may be dispatched from the nearby bus lines or bus depots, which inevitably affect bus passengers. However, the literature has paid very little attention to the sources of buses and impractically assumed buses are immediately available. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a joint optimization problem integrating bus dispatching and bus bridging timetabling, considering the balance between the impact of bus dispatching on bus passengers and evacuation of MRT passengers. A mixed integer linear programming model is developed to minimize total penalties caused by affected onboard passengers and cumulative waiting passengers in both bus and bus bridging systems. A tailored decomposition method is devised to find high-quality solutions efficiently. By applying the decomposition method, the model is split into three sub-problems, which are solved by three tailored and efficient methods developed based on their unique features. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated using Singapore case studies. The computational results show that our method can guide bus dispatching efficiently to evacuate stranded passengers while minimizing the impact on bus passengers. Finally, the impacts of duration, bus frequency, passenger demand, and penalty coefficients are analyzed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"196 ","pages":"Article 103215"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel hierarchical perimeter control method for road networks considering boundary congestion in a mixed CAV and HV traffic environment","authors":"Heng Ding ,&nbsp;Liangwen Wang ,&nbsp;Nan Zheng ,&nbsp;Zeyang Cheng ,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Zheng ,&nbsp;Jiye Li","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2025.103219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under dynamic traffic demand conditions, two issues must be addressed when perimeter control is implemented for congested areas of a road network. The first is to avoid intersection spillback at the boundaries and expansion of the congestion, and the second is to improve the output traffic efficiency of the congested areas to quickly relieve traffic congestion. To address these two issues and solve the traffic congestion problem, in this paper, we adopt a dynamic buffer area to store boundary queuing vehicles and use connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology to improve the traffic flow transmission efficiency of a congested area. First, considering the macro- and micro-level relationships between the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) regions and buffer areas (link- and node-based), a traffic flow transmission model of the network embedded in dynamic buffer areas is built. Second, based on road network state sensing, a dynamic adjustment method of buffer volume is presented to optimize MFD region boundary flows. Third, a hierarchical control method based on model prediction (HCMMP) is proposed for the scenario of a single kernel network. The HCMMP's upper level adopts model predictive control (MPC) to adjust the traffic flow into the dynamic buffer area, and the lower level uses real-time CAV information to optimize the signal timing in the dynamic buffer area. Finally, a complex cellular multiregional road network is selected as a scenario case, and the proposed HCMMP is analysed and compared with no control (NC), proportional integral (PI) control, MPC (both without a dynamic buffer area), PI control with a dynamic buffer area (PIBA) and hierarchical control method based on the PI (HCMPI). The results show that the proposed HCMMP can improve the traffic efficiency, outperforming the other control methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"195 ","pages":"Article 103219"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}