Transportation Research Part B-Methodological最新文献

{"title":"Parking reservation scheme in a commuting system with shared autonomous vehicles and parking space constraint","authors":"Zhe-Yi Tang, Li-Jun Tian, Peng Liu, Hai-Jun Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103116","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effects of parking reservation schemes on travel choices and flow distribution in a commuting system comprising regular vehicles (RVs) and shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), when faced with limited parking spaces. All possible departure patterns under three parking reservation schemes are explored, involving unreserved and reserved RV commuters, as well as SAV commuters. Associated factors, such as the number of parking slots, the number of unreserved slots, and the additional SAV cost, are analyzed. The impacts of these factors on various metrics, including modal split, SAV market share, traffic congestion, individual travel cost, and system performance, are investigated. Analytical analysis reveals that managing the numbers of parking slots and unreserved parking slots can reduce individual travel cost and alleviate traffic congestion. Additionally, the study suggests an optimal reservation scheme for the number of parking slots and the ratio of unreserved slots, along with the additional SAV cost, to minimize total travel cost and maximize system efficiency. These findings could shape future urban mobility parking policies, accommodating mixed traffic of regular and autonomous vehicles.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interpretable State-Space Model of Urban Dynamics for Human-Machine Collaborative Transportation Planning","authors":"Jiangbo Yu, Michael F. Hyland","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103134","url":null,"abstract":"Strategic Long-Range Transportation Planning (SLRTP) is pivotal in shaping prosperous, sustainable, and resilient urban futures. Existing SLRTP decision support tools predominantly serve forecasting and evaluative functions, leaving a gap in directly recommending optimal planning decisions. To bridge this gap, we propose an Interpretable State-Space Model (ISSM) that considers the dynamic interactions between transportation infrastructure and the broader urban system. The ISSM directly facilitates the development of optimal controllers and reinforcement learning (RL) agents for optimizing infrastructure investments and urban policies while still allowing human-user comprehension. We carefully examine the mathematical properties of our ISSM; specifically, we present the conditions under which our proposed ISSM is Markovian, and a unique and stable solution exists. Then, we apply an ISSM instance to a case study of the San Diego region of California, where a partially observable ISSM represents the urban environment. We also propose and train a Deep RL agent using the ISSM instance representing San Diego. The results show that the proposed ISSM approach, along with the well-trained RL agent, captures the impacts of coordinating the timing of infrastructure investments, environmental impact fees for new land development, and congestion pricing fees. The results also show that the proposed approach facilitates the development of prescriptive capabilities in SLRTP to foster economic growth and limit induced vehicle travel. We view the proposed ISSM approach as a substantial contribution that supports the use of artificial intelligence in urban planning, a domain where planning agencies need rigorous, transparent, and explainable models to justify their actions.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142867439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Conditional forecasting of bus travel time and passenger occupancy with Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregression","authors":"Xiaoxu Chen, Zhanhong Cheng, Alexandra M. Schmidt, Lijun Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103147","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103147","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate forecasting of bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty is essential for both travelers and transit agencies/operators. However, existing approaches to forecasting bus travel time and passenger occupancy mainly rely on deterministic models, providing only point estimates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive model to jointly forecast both bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty. The proposed approach naturally captures the intricate interactions among adjacent buses and adapts to the multimodality and skewness of real-world bus travel time and passenger occupancy observations. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm to approximate the resultant joint posterior distribution of the parameter vector. With this framework, the estimation of downstream bus travel time and passenger occupancy is transformed into a multivariate time series forecasting problem conditional on partially observed outcomes. Experimental validation using real-world data demonstrates the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both predictive means and uncertainty quantification compared to the Bayesian Gaussian mixture model.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"5 5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entropy maximization in multi-class traffic assignment","authors":"Qianni Wang, Liyang Feng, Jiayang Li, Jun Xie, Yu (Marco) Nie","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103136","url":null,"abstract":"Entropy maximization is a standard approach to consistently selecting a unique class-specific solution for multi-class traffic assignment. Here, we show the conventional maximum entropy formulation fails to strictly observe the multi-class bi-criteria user equilibrium condition, because a class-specific solution matching the total equilibrium link flow may violate the equilibrium condition. We propose to fix the problem by requiring the class-specific solution, in addition to matching the total equilibrium link flow, also match the objective function value at the equilibrium. This leads to a new formulation that is solved using an exact algorithm based on dualizing the hard, equilibrium-related constraints. Our numerical experiments highlight the superior stability of the maximum entropy solution, in that it is affected by a perturbation in inputs much less than an untreated benchmark multi-class assignment solution. In addition to instability, the benchmark solution also exhibits varying degrees of arbitrariness, potentially rendering it unsuitable for assessing distributional effects across different groups, a capability crucial in applications concerning vertical equity and environmental justice. The proposed formulation and algorithm offer a practical remedy for these shortcomings.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bike network planning in limited urban space","authors":"Nina Wiedemann, Christian Nöbel, Lukas Ballo, Henry Martin, Martin Raubal","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103135","url":null,"abstract":"The lack of cycling infrastructure in urban environments hinders the adoption of cycling as a viable mode for commuting, despite the evident benefits of (e-)bikes as sustainable, efficient, and health-promoting transportation modes. Bike network planning is a tedious process, relying on heuristic computational methods that frequently overlook the broader implications of introducing new cycling infrastructure, in particular the necessity to repurpose car lanes. In this work, we call for optimizing the trade-off between bike and car networks, effectively pushing for Pareto optimality. This shift in perspective gives rise to a novel linear programming formulation towards optimal bike network allocation. Our experiments, conducted using both real-world and synthetic data, testify the effectiveness and superiority of this optimization approach compared to heuristic methods. In particular, the framework provides stakeholders with a range of lane reallocation scenarios, illustrating potential bike network enhancements and their implications for car infrastructure. Crucially, our approach is adaptable to various bikeability and car accessibility evaluation criteria, making our tool a highly flexible and scalable resource for urban planning. This paper presents an advanced decision-support framework that can significantly aid urban planners in making informed decisions on cycling infrastructure development.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lookahead scenario relaxation for dynamic time window assignment in service routing","authors":"Rosario Paradiso, Roberto Roberti, Marlin Ulmer","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103137","url":null,"abstract":"We consider a problem where customers dynamically request next-day home service, e.g., repair or installments. Unlike attended home delivery, customers cannot select a time window (TW), the service provider assigns a next-day TW to each new customer if the customer can feasibly be inserted in the service route of the next day without violating the TWs of the existing customers. Otherwise, customer service will be postponed to another day (which is outside the scope of this work). The provider aims to serve many customers the next day for fast service and efficient operations. Thus, TWs have to be assigned to keep the flexibility of the fleet for future requests. For such anticipatory assignments, we propose a stochastic lookahead method that samples a set of future request scenarios, solves the corresponding team-orienteering problems with TWs, and uses the solutions to evaluate current TW assignment decisions. For real-time solutions to the team orienteering problem, we propose to approximate its optimal solution value with an upper bound. The bound is obtained by solving the linear relaxation of a set packing reformulation via column generation. We test our algorithm on Iowa City data and compare it to several benchmark policies. The results show that our method significantly increases customer service, and our relaxation is essential for effective decisions. We further show that our policy does not lead to observable discrimination against inconveniently located customers.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142816579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revisiting McFadden’s correction factor for sampling of alternatives in multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models","authors":"Thijs Dekker, Prateek Bansal, Jinghai Huo","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103129","url":null,"abstract":"When estimating multinomial logit (MNL) models where choices are made from a large set of available alternatives computational benefits can be achieved by estimating a quasi-likelihood function based on a sampled subset of alternatives in combination with ‘<ce:italic>McFadden’s correction factor</ce:italic>’. In this paper, we theoretically prove that McFadden’s correction factor minimises the expected information loss in the parameters of interest and thereby has convenient finite (and large sample) properties. That is, in the context of Bayesian estimation the use of sampling of alternatives in combination with McFadden’s correction factor provides the best approximation of the posterior distribution for the parameters of interest irrespective of sample size. As sample sizes become sufficiently large consistent point estimates for MNL can be obtained as per McFadden’s original proof. McFadden’s correction factor can therefore effectively be applied in the context of Bayesian MNL models. We extend these results to the context of mixed multinomial logit models (MMNL) by using the property of data augmentation in Bayesian estimation. McFadden’s correction factor minimises the expected information loss with respect to the augmented individual-level parameters, and in turn also for the population parameters characterising the shape and location of the mixing density in MMNL. Again, the results apply to finite and large samples and most importantly circumvent the need for additional correction factors previously identified for estimating MMNL models using maximum simulated likelihood. Monte Carlo simulations validate this result for sampling of alternatives in Bayesian MMNL models.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142788858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Airport city and downtown store competition and regulation under incomplete information","authors":"Shiyuan Zheng, Anming Zhang, Kun Wang, Xiaowen Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2024.103131","url":null,"abstract":"Many airports have evolved into \"airport cities\" by expanding their business ventures beyond traditional goods and services to include hotels, convention centers, and shopping complexes. These airport cities, often referred to as airport malls, now directly compete with downtown stores due to their increasingly similar range of products and services. Both air passengers and local residents can choose to shop at either the airport mall or downtown stores. We model the government's optimal regulation of airport cities under potentially incomplete information regarding their true operational costs and service quality. Our analytical results suggest that airports can earn \"information rent\" in the form of higher profits when the government lacks complete information about the operational cost of airport mall. This incomplete information results in distortions in airport aeronautical charge and airport mall shopping price. Our findings indicate that it is more socially efficient for the government to allow airports to earn an \"information rent\" through higher aeronautical profits, with the direction of airport price distortion depending on the price elasticity of air travel demand. In contrast, the government's incomplete information about airport mall service quality does not lead to distortions compared to the complete information scenario. We also examined outcomes under different airport city regulation regimes: regulation by the central government (centralization), local government (localization), and both governments (dual regulation). Dual regulation results in the most significant airport pricing distortion, benefiting airports with the highest information rent. However, this approach still yields greater social welfare than localization. Consequently, the central government always has an incentive to intervene in airport city regulation. Nevertheless, our numerical simulations indicate that central government regulation under incomplete information could result in worse social welfare outcomes than no regulation at all.","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142788857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hierarchical Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process models for discrete choice: Mode choice in New York City","authors":"Daniel F. Villarraga,&nbsp;Ricardo A. Daziano","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Standard Discrete Choice Models (DCMs) assume that unobserved effects that influence decision-making are independently and identically distributed among individuals. When unobserved effects are spatially correlated, the independence assumption does not hold, leading to biased standard errors and potentially biased parameter estimates. This paper proposes an interpretable Hierarchical Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (HNNGP) model to account for spatially correlated unobservables in discrete choice analysis. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are often regarded as lacking interpretability due to their non-parametric nature. However, we demonstrate how to incorporate GPs directly into the latent utility specification to flexibly model spatially correlated unobserved effects without sacrificing structural economic interpretation. To empirically test our proposed HNNGP models, we analyze binary and multinomial mode choices for commuting to work in New York City. For the multinomial case, we formulate and estimate HNNGPs with and without independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). Building on the interpretability of our modeling strategy, we provide both point estimates and credible intervals for the value of travel time savings in NYC. Finally, we compare the results from all proposed specifications with those derived from a standard logit model and a probit model with spatially autocorrelated errors (SAE) to showcase how accounting for different sources of spatial correlation in discrete choice can significantly impact inference. We also show that the HNNGP models attain better out-of-sample prediction performance when compared to the logit and probit SAE models, especially in the multinomial case.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 103132"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142744510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic analysis of parking, vehicle charging and vehicle-to-grid services in the era of electric vehicles","authors":"Zhuoye Zhang ,&nbsp;Fangni Zhang ,&nbsp;Wei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.trb.2024.103133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the advances in electrical technologies (especially the vehicle-to-grid or V2G technologies), electric vehicles (EVs) now can be used as power storage. The latent power storage capacity in EVs can provide additional flexibility to the power system, and thus helps enhance the overall efficiency, stability and reliability of the power grid. With the V2G facility in place, EV users can choose to share their vehicles to the power grid as temporary storage while the vehicle is being parked or charged (termed as ‘V2G parking or charging service’). This study investigates the pricing and capacity decisions of parking, charging and V2G operators, subject to the EV users’ choice equilibrium. An EV user who demands parking or charging can choose the (conventional) dedicated parking or charging slot (managed by the parking or charging operator) or the slot of V2G facility such that his/her vehicle can be used by the power grid as temporary storage while being parked or charged (managed by the V2G operator). We formulate and analyze the EV user choice equilibrium subject to parking, charging and V2G service provision, and then investigate parking, charging and V2G operators’ optimal service fare and capacity decisions in different market regimes, where the operators may compete or cooperate with each other (e.g., charging and V2G facilities might be operated jointly). The main findings are as follows. (i) Introducing the V2G-based parking/charging service might earn a positive profit for the V2G operator and also benefit customers who request for parking or charging, but the parking and charging operators will suffer a loss. (ii) The competition between operators tends to reduce the service fares, while cooperation tends to increase the fares and yield more profits for the operators. (iii) The optimal capacity of parking, charging, or V2G facilities should be set to balance the marginal capacity acquisition cost and the marginal facility searching time cost. (iv) When V2G operator cooperates with parking/charging operator, if the additional gains of parking/charging operator through cooperation are smaller than that of V2G operator, the optimal service fare of parking/charging should be smaller, and thus will benefit the parkers/chargers (after V2G service is introduced). (v) The collaboration between parking (or charging) and V2G operators might also benefit the charging (or parking) operator. Overall, this study enhances the understanding in relation to parking and charging operators’ reactions to emerging V2G-based parking and charging services, and provides insights regarding how the V2G service should be planned and optimized.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54418,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part B-Methodological","volume":"191 ","pages":"Article 103133"},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142723122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}