Statistika Ukrayini最新文献

{"title":"Estimation the Labor Force Replacement Demand in Ukraine, Caused by Its Outflow Due to the Age and Labor Migration","authors":"V. Sarioglo, М. Y. Ogay","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.04","url":null,"abstract":"The article describes an effective approach to the anticipation of the labor force demand caused by the need to it replace (the replacement demand). The emphasis is made on estimation the outflow of workforce due to the retirement and labor migration.  \u0000The importance of medium-term forecasting (for 10 years) of the labor force demand, caused by the need to replace the workers flowing out of the labor market as a whole and separate occupational or qualification groups in particular is justified in the Ukraine’s context. The data sources and methodological approaches to the anticipation of the replacement demand are highlighted. It is shown that the main source of data for the labor force replacement demand anticipation in Ukraine, like in many other countries, is the state labor force the sample survey. A serious problem for Ukraine is accounting of labor migration effects for the replacement demand, which is assessed by conducting ad hoc surveys. The main methods used in anticipation of the replacement demand are method of trend extrapolation, methods of pseudo-cohorts, and stock-flow modeling. These methods enable for assessing and accounting of not only the processes of outflow of the labor force due to the age, but also transitory processes reflected, inter alia, in changes of qualifications and/or professions by young people at the beginning of their carrier. \u0000A medium-term anticipation of the labor force demand in Ukraine, caused by outflow of the labor force due to the age and labor migration, is performed. It is shown that the replacement demand caused by outflow of the workers due to the age, accounts for a most significant part of the overall demand for workforce, making up in medium-term perspective nearly 13% of the total employment in 2017. The level of the demand has strong variations across occupational and qualification groups: in the occupational group “the simplest occupations”, the average annual demand caused by the outflow due to the age will be nearly 3.4% of the total employment. \u0000It is shown that the replacement demand in Ukraine by occupational group may substantially increase due to labor migration. Thus, the high replacement demand for workers in the simplest occupations is enhanced by the external labor migration of such workers, which share is nearly 42% of the total labor migrants. ","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48225253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Satellite Account of Expenditures on Environmental Protection: Methodological Aspects of Its Introduction in Ukraine","authors":"Т. Kobylynska, L. Momotiuk, О. М. Motuzka","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.01","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to methodological aspects addressed in building up the framework for the satellite account of the expenditure on environmental protection in Ukraine. It is argued that any study of the environment need computations and analyses of quantitative indicators based on the statistics data. Problems of statistical accounting are, therefore, the central ones in investigating the expenditure on environmental protection. One of the most urgent tasks is to ensure comparability of data, to enable comparisons of data at all the levels in order to find output key tendencies and patterns in the expenditure on environmental protection, comparisons of figures relating to environmental protection and macroeconomic situation.  \u0000The article contains an analysis of the phases of creating the European standard of the system for environmental-economic accounting on the whole and the environmental protection expenditures account in particular. The sources of data for creating the satellite account for the expenditure on environmental protection in Ukraine, and the indicators included in the EU questionnaire designed to collect data on national expenditures on environmental protection are highlighted. \u0000It is demonstrated that data from many sources are used to build the satellite account for the expenditure on environmental protection. It is mentioned that by now Ukraine has not introduced ad hoc surveys of households on the expenditures on environmental protection. \u0000Results of the study show that the main sources of data for computations of the expenditures on environmental protection in Ukraine can be the official statistical observation by type of expenditure, collected by form 1 – environmental expenditure (annual) “Expenditures on environmental protection and environmental payments”, where the expenditure are recorded according to the Classification of Environmental Protection Activities. \u0000The sources of secondary information, i. e. the data from regular official statistical observations and administrative data that are collected with other purposes and reflect selected aspects of expenditure on EP, are recommended for use when developing the methodology. ","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48762524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Grounding of New National Priorities for the Land Using in the Agrarian Sector","authors":"M. Shchuryk, І. V. Hudzyk","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.06","url":null,"abstract":"Land resources of the agrarian sector are the most important сomponent of the national wealth of Ukraine. However, the efficiency of their use does not meet the present-day requirements, as it is aimed at the permanent increase in the gross output of agricultural products without taking into account the need for improvement and protection of soils, observing the ontology laws and ecology preservation. Land and agrarian reforms implemented through sharing and privatization of land plots have caused the formation of two largest groups of users and owners of agricultural lands: agroholdings and households. However, small and medium agrarian entities have not been properly developed, as it is done in many EU countries. \u0000The transformation of land relations in the domestic agrarian sector was directed to searching an honest landlord which had to be households. However, as follows from the study, true owners of land plots could not be found, as the reforms were implemented with significant violations and abuses. As a result, in many cases owners of land plots became individuals who were not directly related to agricultural lands. Unclaimed land shares and increased numbers of plots left by small owners indicate the failure of the land reform.  \u0000The owners of agroholdings exploiting their lands to obtain extra profits failed to use the leased lands in an efficient manner, mainly because the profitability of land was achieved without taking into account the need for preserving the soils fertility; the need to respect the laws of ecology and optology preservation is also ignored. \u0000The article substantiates the need of introducing new national priorities for the use of agricultural lands, where the formation of small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises should become the key measures. The need for inventory of land plots of the agroindustrial complex by land plot, land owner and land user is demonstrated, which will serve as a roadmap for developing the program of land use in the context of globalization and integration processes.  Efficiency enhancement of the existing agrarian entities and creating new ones by analogy with the EU countries should become a new priority of the land use policy. \u0000The authors propose to engage the capacities of domestic R&D to setting the priorities of land use in the newly created united territorial communities.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47393441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of Index Models in Assessing the Foreign Economic Activity of Ukraine","authors":"H. Holubova","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.03","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of statistical assessment of foreign economic activities in Ukraine, considering the structure and geographical re-orientation of the Ukrainian foreign trade and new challenges of the globalized and highly competitive market of goods and services, gives rise to the modeling of patterns underlying future tendencies in the development of the Ukrainian foreign trade. The article contains a description of approaches to the analysis of foreign economic activities in Ukraine by use of index models. Several index models are constructed and used for assessing the debt burden of Ukraine, the impact of selected sub-factors on it are determined, and the dynamics of the export quota in 2016–2017 are highlighted \u0000By use of the chain substitutions method it is found that the debt burden of Ukraine decreased in 2017, compared to 2016, by 21.0% due to the reduced import dependence of Ukraine, by 12.0% due to the partial debt burden, but increased by 4.1% due to the export losses. The results show that the strongest impact on the dynamics of debt burden of Ukraine came from the import dependence (56.6%), which means that the strict import quota remains the main factor of the increasing foreign debt of Ukraine, which caused 5.9% loss of export earnings in 2016, and 2.3% in 2017. \u0000The analysis of the export quota dynamics based on the index model showed that the impact of the international intraspecific specialization of the country on it was 43.2%, and the impact of the exports’ share in the foreign trade balance made 44.7%. That is, the main factors of change are the commodity and geographical specialization of Ukraine, as well as the imbalance in the foreign trade. \u0000Results of the analysis of the indices of averages show that due to the growth in export quotas of products of vegetable origin, fats and oils by 12.7%, and under the influence of the commodity structure of exports (–8.4%), the export quota increased by 3.2% in 2017 compared to 2012. The import quota of goods decreased by 17%, including by 7.6% due to the reduced import dependence of the country, and by 10.1% due to the changed structure of imports. \u0000Results of the analysis indicate significant change in the trend of export and import quotas of Ukraine on account of geographical reorientation: due to changes in the geographical structure of exports and imports of Ukraine, the export and import quotas decreased by 41.5%, and 32.2%, respectively. \u0000The analysis of the commodity structure of the Ukrainian foreign trade in 2012–2017 shows that the largest export positions were non-precious metals (ferrous metals and products made thereof), grain crops, fats and oils, electric machinery; in the exports of services, the largest share was accounted for by transport services, telecommunication services, computer and information services, processing of material resources, and business services. In the commodity structure of imports, mineral products had the largest share, which, however, decreas","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47025905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Estimation of the Awareness of the Working Age Population about Harmful Consumption of Alcohol as a Risk Factor of Cardiovascular Diseases","authors":"N. Ryngach","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.08","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the analysis of awareness of the working age population about alcohol abuse as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases according to the results of a sociological study. \u0000The goal is to identify and characterize the awareness of residents of the Dnipropetrovsk region about the harmful alcohol consumption, personal attitudes and practices of drinking, the possibility of minimizing its harmful effects for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, as well as the activity to correct this risk factor. \u0000The method of personalized formal interviews is used. The survey of a representative sample of the population of working age (N2000) was carried out according to a specially developed methodology of qualitative and quantitative research stages and data collection tools. The study was conducted in 2017 on request of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration with the financial support of the World Bank. \u0000The gap between the almost complete awareness of the respondents (95.1%) and the harmful effects of alcohol abuse on existing cardiovascular disease or its possible future occurrence and actual practice of use was revealed. The majority of respondents reported that they drank alcohol (57.6%) now or had consumed it before (15%). \u0000It was shown that men prevailed in the group of those who consumed alcohol almost daily or several times a week (33.3% of those who consumed alcohol, versus 9.5% among women). The most common portion of alcohol among respondents (51.1%), consumed in one take, did not exceed three standard drinks.  The main reasons that prompted alcohol consumption were unwillingness to “fall out” from the team (more than 75% of respondents); national traditions (40%); way to relieve stress (25%). \u0000The expediency of studying changes in the situation regarding the prevalence of harmful use of alcohol, habitual practices of its use, activity to minimize harmful effects from the review of prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases in particular and adherence to a healthy lifestyle as a whole, after a certain time interval according to a similar methodology has been proved. The results of the survey can be used to assess the effectiveness of measures to improve the health literacy of the population, increase the motivation to change behavior in favor of health, building composite indicators.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47200681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Information Support of Knowledge Management in Ukraine","authors":"O. Oliinyk","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.07","url":null,"abstract":"The article defines the place and components of IT solutions in the knowledge management system. The author substantiates that the use of modern IT solutions in the knowledge management system is an essential component of creation, search, transfer, exchange, development and effective use of knowledge. A large number of different technologies are used to integrate into a single complex of knowledge management system, including traditional automation systems and information retrieval systems, e-mail, corporate networks and Internet services, databases and data warehouses, electronic document management systems, specialized data processing programs, expert systems and databases knowledge In this case, a computer remains as a main tool of information management knowledge management in Ukraine. The scholar analysed the dynamics of the major indicators of computer devices’ use of by enterprises. The paper determined that not all enterprises in Ukraine use computers in their business activities. The proportion of enterprises, which used computers in 2017, amounted for 95.4%, which is by 0.2% more in comparison with 2015. The best situation in this aspect is in such types of economic activities as professional, scientific and technical activities; information and telecommunications; water supply; sewage, waste management. However, on average only every third employee in Ukraine used a computer to perform his/her professional duties. The author examined the main Internet-based jobs, where traditional activities are the most popular ones, namely: sending or receiving various e-mails, receiving information about goods and services. At the same time, videoconferencing is less popular, which is a negative factor in creating effective communication in the transmission, dissemination and exchange of knowledge. The paper explored the degree of using the possibilities of a corporate website for personnel training. The author determined that only every tenth enterprise in Ukraine uses its own website for the professional development of the employees. The scholar substantiated the features of social media, which promote the efficiency of their use as a tool for knowledge management. Exchanging views, opinions or knowledge within the enterprise and engaging customers in the development or innovation of goods and services remain the least popular objectives of social media work.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48391058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Core Trends in the Development of the Industrial Sector in the Ukrainian Regions","authors":"S. Ishchuk","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.09","url":null,"abstract":"The deepening of the processes of European integration updated the need for Ukraine to increase the competitiveness of products of domestic producers to the level of the EU member states. The solution to this problem is impossible without structural modernization of Ukrainian industry. In its turn, the choice of directions and mechanisms for the practical implementation of the new state industrial policy in Ukraine (in particular, at the regional level) should be based on the results of relevant analytical assessments. \u0000The purpose of the article is to determine the key trends in the development of industry in Ukraine based on the evaluation of the dynamics of the values of indicators that systematically characterize the level of functioning of the industrial sector of the national economy in a regional context. \u0000The results of the analysis revealed that industry remains the leading type of economic activity in Ukraine with a share of 34.1% in the volume of sales of products (goods and services) in 2017. That year the industrial sector of the national economy significantly increased production, export and investment activity, and also reached a higher level of efficiency, in particular, resource (return on assets and labor productivity) and economic (operating profitability, profitability and return on assets). At the same time, there was a further decrease in the level of capital and innovation activity of the industry. To a certain extent, this is due to a slowdown in the dynamics of investment processes – the growth rate of capital investment in industry decreased by 18.4 pp. \u0000In order to counteract the established negative trends in industrial development (first of all, deterioration of the structure of assets and decrease of innovation activity, in particular, reduction of the share of innovative products in the total volume of industrial products sold, etc.), as well as for the further growth of profitability of the subjects of industrial activity and increase of the share of industry in commodity exports, the implementation of a complex of organizational and economic and financial mechanisms in the following areas: stimulating the level of innovation activity; activation of attraction of direct foreign investments; increasing export potential.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46060078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Benchmarking as a Tool for Providing Analytical Support to Mortgage Lending Operations of a Bank","authors":"O. Hamkalo, K. Demkiv","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.10","url":null,"abstract":"The essence of benchmarking is investigated and questions of its organization in the course of mortgage lending operations in the bank are considered as one of the most effective modern tools for improvement of work and achievement of competitive advantages in the field of mortgage lending. \u0000Taking into account the specifics of banking operations in the banking sector, benchmarking can be considered as a process for comparing the Bank’s services and business processes with the products of services and business processes of leading banks, best lenders, partners in order to borrow better practices in mortgage operations and their adaptation for obtaining competitive advantages in the market of mortgage banking services. \u0000The classification signs of benchmarking of mortgage lending are singled out and systematized, which will enable the management of banks to purposefully apply the methodology of studying and introducing the positive experience of competitors, partners and other organizations, as well as promoting the innovative development of credit organizations, and in the future, specialized mortgage banks in Ukraine. \u0000It is determined that the choice of the type of benchmarking depends on: the goals, goals and objectives set by the banks; ability to obtain the information and analysis necessary for comparison; the necessary financial, human resources, information, technological and other resources, as well as the experience of the workers and the time required for its implementation. \u0000In order to improve the process of mortgage lending, the Bank proposes the following procedure for the introduction of a benchmarking procedure: the identification of areas to be improved, that is, objects of benchmarking, based on the results of the analysis of the state of mortgage lending in a bank; definition of the basic criteria of comparative analysis; search for benchmarking benchmarks; collection and processing of information; development of recommendations and their introduction into the policy of mortgage lending in the bank; monitoring and control over the implementation of decisions on problem solving. This creates the preconditions for using the positive experience of leading banks in the field of mortgage lending and forms the appropriate principles for developing a strategy for further development of the bank. \u0000It is substantiated that the use of benchmarking in the activities of banks in relation to mortgage lending is a powerful tool in the context of global competition, and its implementation in the organization of economic analysis of mortgage lending operations of banks will allow for a higher level of application of mortgage opportunities.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48763920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Nonparametric and Parametric Criteria for Statistical Hypotheses Testing. Chapter II. Agreement Criteria of Romanovsky, Student and Fisher","authors":"F. Motsnyi","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.02","url":null,"abstract":"Any assumptions or waiting for that or another distribution of random values are statistical hypotheses. The objective knowledge about hypotheses can obtain always using the spatial statistical tests that are named agreement criteria. It’s known about 100 different agreement criteria. \u0000Nonparametric tests don’t include in calculations the parameters of the probability distribution and operates with frequency only. They don’t assume that the experimental data have a specific distribution. Nonparametric criteria are widely used in analysis of the empirical data, in the checking of the hope models, the simple and complex statistical hypotheses and take a prominent place in science and practice. \u0000Parametric tests contain the distribution parameters. They are used for the samples with the normal distribution. Parametric tests permit: 1) to check the statistical hypotheses about the normal distribution characteristics of the population obtained on the base of sample processing; 2) to except the gross errors; 3) to evaluate the difference of the mathematical average values ; 4) and to distinguish the dispersions. That is why these tests are very extensively used in mathematical statistics too. \u0000The paper continues ideas of the author’s works [1; 2] devoted to advanced based tools of the mathematical statistics. The aim of the work is to generalize the well known theoretical and experimental results about the statistical tests of the hypotheses testing. Parametric criteria (Romanovsky, Student, Fisher) are discussed carefully from the uniform point of view. The peculiarities of its using for statistical hypothesis testing are highlighted. The typical tasks are suggested and solved. All this takes an opportunity to cover the main point (essence) of the problem as a whole and evaluate its actuality directly.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47202238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Foundation of Historical Facts","authors":"S. Gerasymenko, V. Gerasymenko","doi":"10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.1(84)2019.01.05","url":null,"abstract":"In the article the reasonability of using statistics in modeling and prognostication of historical events is substantiated. The usage of statistics in investigation of history is caused by the fact that the development of the sociality is determined by the interaction of different historical events, each of them – from one side – is connected with definite events which took place in the past, and from the other side – forms the events of the future. Thus, history as the object of investigation is the whole set of interconnected elements – events, the behaviour of which can be described with the help of appropriate statistical models. \u0000In particular, the behaviour of people is determined – first of all – by the biological factors among which the need for food is on the first place. Hypothesis, that the shortage of food is the motive power of historical events, was checked according to the information about the range of events which took place in Ukraine in XVI – XVII centuries. Recurrent 600-year fluctuation of solar activity caused the global negative changes of the climate in Europe and in Ukraine in 1550 – 1650. As a result – regular crop failure and famine, the influence of which for 26,5% of the territory of modern Ukraine (which at that time belonged to Rzecz Pospolita), was increased by the regular forays of Turks and Crimean Tatars. \u0000The tendency correlation coefficient of 10 main historical events of those times with the “starvation years”, the origin of which was caused by two mentioned above factors, exceeded 85%, and it is quite enough level for not to decline the hypothesis about the interconnection which is being investigated, taking into account the particularities of information which was used. \u0000The stated supposition and the received results allow to make the conclusions that there were and there always are the objective factors, which cause the historical events, the level of which can be determined and to measure the extent of their influence on the historical events.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44315731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}