Global Health Research and Policy最新文献

{"title":"Strengthening access to cancer medicines for children in East Africa: policy options to enhance medicine procurement, forecasting, and regulations.","authors":"Kadia Petricca, Laura Carson, Joyce Kambugu, Avram Denburg","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00365-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00365-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Gaps in access to quality essential medicines remain a major impediment to the effective care of children with cancer in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). The World Health Organization reports that less than 30% of LMICs have consistent availability of childhood cancer medicines, compared to over 95% in high-income countries. Information provided within this policy brief is drawn from a review of the literature and a mixed-methods study published in the Lancet Oncology that analyzed determinants of cancer medicine access for children in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda. Three key policy options are presented to guide strategic policy direction and critical health system planning for strengthening access to cancer medicines for children: pooled procurement, evidence-based forecasting, and regional harmonization of regulatory processes. Enhancing regional pooled procurement to address fragmented markets and improve medicine supply, investing in health information systems for improved forecasting and planning of childhood cancer medicine needs, and promoting regulatory harmonization to streamline medicine approval and quality assurance across East Africa are recommended. This policy brief is intended for policymakers, clinicians, and health-system planners involved in the procurement, supply chain management, policy and financing of childhood cancer medicines.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"24"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11218261/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141477951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Burden and trends of infectious disease mortality attributed to air pollution, unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene, and non-optimal temperature globally and in different socio-demographic index regions.","authors":"Qiao Liu, Jie Deng, Wenxin Yan, Chenyuan Qin, Min Du, Yaping Wang, Shimo Zhang, Min Liu, Jue Liu","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00366-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00366-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Environmental factors greatly impact infectious disease-related mortality, yet there's a lack of comprehensive global studies on the contemporary burden and trends. This study aims to evaluate the global burden and trends of infectious disease mortality caused by air pollution, unsafe water, poor sanitation, and non-optimal temperature across Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions from 1990 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This observational study utilized data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study to examine mortality rates from infectious diseases attributed to environmental risk factors between 1990 and 2019, including air pollution, unsafe water, sanitation, handwashing facilities (UWSH), and non-optimal temperatures. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were utilized to present infectious disease mortality, and its trajectory influenced by environmental risk factors over the years. Nonlinear regression was conducted to explore the association between the SDI and ASMRs across regions from 1990 to 2019.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2019, global infectious disease deaths linked to air pollution, UWSH, and non-optimal temperature reached a startling 2,556,992. Disease mortality varied widely across SDI regions, with the highest number of deaths due to air pollution and UWSH in Low SDI regions, and deaths from non-optimal temperature primarily in High SDI regions. Age disparities emerged, with children under five and the elderly most affected. However, an increasing mortality trend was observed among seniors (65-69, 75-79, and over 80) in High SDI regions due to enteric infections linked to UWSH. Globally, a consistent decrease in ASMR was seen from 1990 to 2019 for all diseases connected to these factors, except for respiratory infections linked to non-optimal temperature.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our study underscores the significant impact of air pollution, UWSH, and non-optimal temperatures on global infectious disease mortality, particularly among vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly. It's important to tackle these challenges with targeted interventions aiming to enhance environmental quality, improve water and sanitation systems, and control extreme temperatures. In addition, international cooperation is essential for bridging regional disparities and driving global public health initiatives forward, thereby helping achieve Sustainable Development Goals more effectively.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"23"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11212388/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141472532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social deprivation and spatial clustering of childhood asthma in Australia.","authors":"Jahidur Rahman Khan, Raghu Lingam, Louisa Owens, Katherine Chen, Shivanthan Shanthikumar, Steve Oo, Andre Schultz, John Widger, K Shuvo Bakar, Adam Jaffe, Nusrat Homaira","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00361-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00361-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Asthma is the most common chronic respiratory illness among children in Australia. While childhood asthma prevalence varies by region, little is known about variations at the small geographic area level. Identifying small geographic area variations in asthma is critical for highlighting hotspots for targeted interventions. This study aimed to investigate small area-level variation, spatial clustering, and sociodemographic risk factors associated with childhood asthma prevalence in Australia.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on self-reported (by parent/carer) asthma prevalence in children aged 0-14 years at statistical area level 2 (SA2, small geographic area) and selected sociodemographic features were extracted from the national Australian Household and Population Census 2021. A spatial cluster analysis was used to detect hotspots (i.e., areas and their neighbours with higher asthma prevalence than the entire study area average) of asthma prevalence. We also used a spatial Bayesian Poisson model to examine the relationship between sociodemographic features and asthma prevalence. All analyses were performed at the SA2 level.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Data were analysed from 4,621,716 children aged 0-14 years from 2,321 SA2s across the whole country. Overall, children's asthma prevalence was 6.27%, ranging from 0 to 16.5%, with significant hotspots of asthma prevalence in areas of greater socioeconomic disadvantage. Socioeconomically disadvantaged areas had significantly higher asthma prevalence than advantaged areas (prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.10, 95% credible interval [CrI] 1.06-1.14). Higher asthma prevalence was observed in areas with a higher proportion of Indigenous individuals (PR = 1.13, 95% CrI 1.10-1.17).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We identified significant geographic variation in asthma prevalence and sociodemographic predictors associated with the variation, which may help in designing targeted asthma management strategies and considerations for service enhancement for children in socially deprived areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"22"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11194868/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141443750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Associations between intimate partner violence and women's labor market outcomes in Nigeria.","authors":"Derek S Brown, Samantha McNelly, Melissa Meinhart, Ibrahim Sesay, Catherine Poulton, Lindsay Stark","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00362-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00362-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Little is known regarding economic impacts of intimate partner violence (IPV) in humanitarian settings, especially the labor market burden. Examining costs of IPV beyond the health burden may provide new information to help with resource allocation for addressing IPV, including within conflict zones. This paper measures the incidence and prevalence of different types of IPV, the potential relationship between IPV and labor market activity, and estimating the cost of these IPV-associated labor market differentials.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The association between labor market outcomes, IPV experience, and conflict exposure among women ages 15-49 in Nigeria were studied using the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and 2013-17 Uppsala Conflict Data Program data. Descriptive analysis was used to identify patterns of IPV and labor outcomes by region. Based on this, multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between labor market participation and lifetime IPV exposure. These models were combined with earnings data from the United Nations Human Development Report 2021/2022 and a top-down costing approach to quantify the impacts in terms of lost productivity to the Nigerian economy.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Substantial differences in IPV exposure and labor market outcomes were found between conflict and non-conflict-affected areas. Women with past year or lifetime exposure to physical, emotional, or \"any\" IPV were more likely to withdraw from the labor market in the past year, although no differences were found for sexual IPV or conflict-affected regions. We estimate an average reduction of 4.14% in the likelihood of working, resulting in nearly $3.0 billion USD of lost productivity, about 1% of Nigeria's total economic output.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Increased odds of labor market withdraw were associated with several measures of IPV. Withdrawal from the formal labor market sector has a substantial associated economic cost for all of Nigerian society. If stronger prevention measures reduce the incidence of IPV against women in Nigeria, a substantial portion of lost economic costs likely could be reclaimed. These costs underscore the economic case, alongside the moral imperative, for stronger protections against IPV for girls and women in Nigeria.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"21"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11188153/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141428288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"One Health Risk and Disease (OHRAD): a tool to prioritise the risks for epidemic-prone diseases from One Health perspective.","authors":"Sandul Yasobant, Priya Bhavsar, K Shruti Lekha, Shailee Patil, Timo Falkenberg, Walter Bruchhausen, Deepak Saxena","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00359-w","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00359-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The rise in epidemic-prone diseases daily poses a serious concern globally. Evidence suggests that many of these diseases are of animal origin and contribute to economic loss. Considering the limited time and other resources available for the animal and human health sectors, selecting the most urgent and significant risk factors and diseases is vital, even though all epidemic-prone diseases and associated risk factors should be addressed. The main aim of developing this tool is to provide a readily accessible instrument for prioritising risk factors and diseases that could lead to disease emergence, outbreak or epidemic.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This tool uses a quantitative and semi-quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method that involves five steps: Identifying risk factors and diseases, Weighting the criteria, Risk and disease scoring, Calculating risk impact and disease burden score, and Ranking risks and diseases. It is intended to be implemented through a co-creation workshop and involves individual and group activities. The last two steps are automated in the MS Excel score sheet.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This One Health Risk and Disease (OHRAD) prioritisation tool starts with an individual activity of identifying the risks and diseases from the more extensive list. This, then, leads to a group activity of weighing the criteria and providing scores for each risk and disease. Finally, the individual risk and disease scores with the rankings are generated in this tool.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The outcome of this OHRAD prioritisation tool is that the top risks and diseases are prioritised for the particular context from One Health perspective. This prioritised list will help experts and officials decide which epidemic-prone diseases to focus on and for which to develop and design prevention and control measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"20"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11165885/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141307392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transforming adolescent menstrual health through policy: the role of value added tax exemptions in improving access to sanitary products","authors":"Deborah Oluwaseun Shomuyiwa, Goodness Ogeyi Odey, Antor Odu Ndep, Olabode Ekerin, Josephine Ndapewoshali Amesho, Esperance Luvindao, Emery Manirambona, Don Eliseo Lucero-Prisno III","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00358-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-024-00358-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In Namibia, the Value Added Tax (VAT) Amendment Act 2022, which reclassified the supply of sanitary pads as zero-rated, has significant implications for adolescent girls’ menstrual health and education. The policy change responds to the need to address period poverty by making essential menstrual products more accessible and affordable. Menstruation is a normal biological process, and access to sanitary products is a human right. Taxing menstrual products reinforces gender inequalities and raises concerns about the basic rights and dignity of women and girls. The VAT-free policy creates a system to reduce the financial burden on girls and women, making it easier for them to manage their periods safely and with dignity. It has the potential to reduce absenteeism from school, ultimately improving educational outcomes for adolescent girls. However, VAT exemptions alone are insufficient to address the broader accessibility issues that impact menstrual hygiene. Evidence-based policies that focus on the availability and affordability of a full range of sanitary products, in conjunction with regulatory mechanisms for price and quality control, are necessary to ensure that menstrual products are safe, affordable, and accessible for all.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141257783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Informing evidence-based policy during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period: learning from a national evidence centre.","authors":"Alison Cooper, Ruth Lewis, Micaela Gal, Natalie Joseph-Williams, Jane Greenwell, Angela Watkins, Alexandra Strong, Denitza Williams, Elizabeth Doe, Rebecca-Jane Law, Adrian Edwards","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00354-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00354-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the vital need for research to inform policy decision-making and save lives. The Wales COVID-19 Evidence Centre (WCEC) was established in March 2021 and funded for two years, to make evidence about the impact of the pandemic and ongoing research priorities for Wales available and actionable to policy decision-makers, service leads and the public.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>We describe the approaches we developed and our experiences, challenges and future vision.</p><p><strong>Program implementation: </strong>The centre operated with a core team, including a public partnership group, and six experienced research groups as collaborating partners. Our rapid evidence delivery process had five stages: 1. Stakeholder engagement (continued throughout all stages); 2. Research question prioritisation; 3. Bespoke rapid evidence review methodology in a phased approach; 4. Rapid primary research; and 5. Knowledge Mobilisation to ensure the evidence was available for decision-makers.</p><p><strong>Main achievements: </strong>Between March 2021-23 we engaged with 44 stakeholder groups, completed 35 Rapid Evidence Reviews, six Rapid Evidence Maps and 10 Rapid Evidence Summaries. We completed four primary research studies, with three published in peer reviewed journals, and seven ongoing. Our evidence informed policy decision-making and was cited in 19 Welsh Government papers. These included pandemic infection control measures, the Action Plan to tackle gender inequalities, and Education Renew and Reform policy. We conducted 24 Welsh Government evidence briefings and three public facing symposia.</p><p><strong>Policy implications: </strong>Strong engagement with stakeholder groups, a phased rapid evidence review approach, and primary research to address key gaps in current knowledge enabled high-quality efficient, evidence outputs to be delivered to help inform Welsh policy decision-making during the pandemic. We learn from these processes to continue to deliver evidence from March 2023 as the Health and Care Research Wales Evidence Centre, with a broader remit of health and social care, to help inform policy and practice decisions during the recovery phase and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"18"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11140997/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141186974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leaving no one behind in armed conflict-affected settings of Africa: is universal health coverage a possibility or mirage?","authors":"Olushayo Oluseun Olu, Amos Petu, Abdulmumini Usman","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00360-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00360-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The world is off track six years to the 2030 deadline for attaining the sustainable development goals and universal health coverage. This is particularly evident in Africa's armed conflict-affected and humanitarian settings, where pervasively weak health systems, extreme poverty and inequitable access to the social dimensions and other determinants of health continue to pose significant challenges to universal health coverage. In this article, we review the key issues and main barriers to universal health coverage in such settings. While our review shows that the current health service delivery and financing models in Africa's armed conflict-affected settings provide some opportunities to leapfrog progress, others are threats which could hinder the attainment of universal health coverage. We propose four key approaches focused on addressing the barriers to the three pillars of universal health coverage, strengthening public disaster risk management, bridging the humanitarian-development divide, and using health as an enabler of peace and sustainable development as panacea to addressing the universal health coverage challenge in these settings. The principles of health system strengthening, primary health care, equity, the right to health, and gender mainstreaming should underscore the implementation of these approaches. Moving forward, we call for more advocacy, dialogue, and research to better define and adapt these approaches into a realistic package of interventions for attaining universal health coverage in Africa's armed conflict-affected settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"17"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11134641/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141162888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy perception, job satisfaction and intentions to remain in rural area: evidence from the National Compulsory Service Programme in China.","authors":"Yanrong He, Peicheng Wang, Yanrong Du, Hange Li, Yanhua Chen, Jiming Zhu","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00348-z","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00348-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Exploring factors that may influence general practitioners (GPs)' intentions to remain in rural area is necessary to inform the training and placement of future medical workforce in rural area. However, little is known about how GPs' perception towards the National Compulsory Service Programme (NCSP) and job satisfaction impact their turnover intention. This paper explores GPs' intentions to remain in rural China and how their policy perception and job satisfaction predict the intentions.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a cross-sectional, online survey from December 2021 to February 2022 to investigate GPs' perception towards NCSP, job satisfaction, and intentions to remain in rural area. Eligible participants were GPs who were required to provide health services as part of NCSP at township health centres of 9 provinces which could represent all NCSP GPs in China. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the associations between policy perceptions, job satisfaction, and intentions to remain.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of 3615 GPs included in the analysis, 442 (12.2%) would like to remain in rural area and 1266 (35.0%) were unsure. Results of the multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that compared with GPs who would leave, GPs with higher perception scores for the restriction on taking postgraduate exam (RRR: 1.93, 95% CI 1.72, 2.16) and the commitment to work for six years (RRR: 1.53, 95% CI 1.31, 1.78) were more likely to remain. In contrast, GPs who had higher perception scores for completing standardised residency training (RRR: 0.75, 95% CI 0.64, 0.88) and passing National Medical Licensing Examinations (RRR: 0.74, 95% CI 0.62, 0.87) were more likely to leave. GPs who were satisfied with the freedom of choosing work methods (RRR: 1.52, 95% CI 1.25, 1.84) and chances of promotion (RRR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.32, 1.94) were more likely to remain.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study highlights the significance of policy perception and job satisfaction on GPs' intentions to remain in rural area. Factors such as career advancement and the empowerment of GPs to build on and use their skills and abilities should be taken into account when designing rural placement programmes.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"16"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11059768/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140874107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projections of functional dependence among the late middle-aged and older population from 2018-2048 in China: a dynamic microsimulation.","authors":"Yawen Jiang, Limin Li","doi":"10.1186/s41256-024-00357-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s41256-024-00357-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The population of China is aging rapidly. However, the long-term trajectories of functionally dependent late middle-aged and older Chinese people are currently absent. The present study aimed to estimate the population size and proportion of late middle-aged and older adults with difficulties and dependence on activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) in China from 2018 to 2048.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We constructed a dynamic microsimulation model to project the population size and proportions of late middle-aged and older Chinese people who have difficulty and dependence in ADL and IADL from 2018-2048. The model was populated with a representative sample of the target population and allowed individual-level interaction between risk factors, diseases, and health outcomes. Analyses by socioeconomic subgroups were also conducted.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Almost 25% and 38% of late middle-aged and older people in China will become ADL- and IADL-dependent by 2048, respectively. Also, 17% of the target population will be severely ADL-disabled by 2048. The inequity in functional status across subgroups by sex, educational level, and urban/rural residency will become substantial.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The numbers and percentages of China's functionally difficult and dependent late middle-aged and older population will increase by magnitudes as of the mid-21st century, the pressure of which is compounded by its disproportionate distribution across subgroups. To alleviate the overwhelming challenge, efforts to improve the functional status of the underserved subpopulation should also be iterated.</p>","PeriodicalId":52405,"journal":{"name":"Global Health Research and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"15"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11057077/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140858986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}