Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability最新文献_第2页

A quantitative methodology for justification of platform edge protection systems on passenger rail networks 客运铁路网站台边缘保护系统的定量论证方法

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231221840

Jonathan F Harding, Jonathan Reed, M. Elsmore, Kimberley C. Harding, Alan R Lee, R. McDonald

{"title":"A quantitative methodology for justification of platform edge protection systems on passenger rail networks","authors":"Jonathan F Harding, Jonathan Reed, M. Elsmore, Kimberley C. Harding, Alan R Lee, R. McDonald","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231221840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231221840","url":null,"abstract":"The implementation of appropriate platform edge protection systems (PEPSs) is a vital consideration in modern rail platform design to reduce injuries caused at the platform-train interface. This work presents a commercially tried and tested methodology for assessing the practicability of implementing PEPSs based on statistical analyses in combination with an As-Low-As-Reasonably-Practicable (ALARP) assessment, to assist in the justification of asset application viability. By extrapolating fatality-weighted injury data relating to the inclusion or non-inclusion of PEPSs, a safety risk model predicts changes in injury statistics to establish a quantified safety impact. The economic cost analysis identifies the operational expenditure for PEPSs throughout their lifecycle along with the capital expenditure and any impacts on the operational railway. The outcomes from these analyses are combined to produce a ratio of safety and operational benefits to capital and operational cost which is scrutinised against a designated disproportionality factor to establish suitability for use.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":" 103","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139793057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Approximate parameter estimation and mis-specification analysis of degradation model with asymmetric random effects 具有非对称随机效应的退化模型的近似参数估计和错误规范分析

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x241227300

Shengjin Tang, Fengfei Wang, Xiaoyan Sun, Chuanqiang Yu, Xiaosheng Si

{"title":"Approximate parameter estimation and mis-specification analysis of degradation model with asymmetric random effects","authors":"Shengjin Tang, Fengfei Wang, Xiaoyan Sun, Chuanqiang Yu, Xiaosheng Si","doi":"10.1177/1748006x241227300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x241227300","url":null,"abstract":"Asymmetric distributions such as the skew-normal (SN) distribution have been used for modeling the unit-to-unit variation of the degradation rate of products, and its superiority for model fitting and lifetime estimation has been demonstrated in literature. However, there still exist two issues that need to be further studied. That is, how to simply estimate the parameters of the degradation model with asymmetric random effects and whether the asymmetry or skewness affects the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Driven by these two issues, the parameter estimation and RUL prediction of the degradation model with general random effects are first introduced and a two-step maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for parameter estimation is proposed, which could greatly simplify the parameter estimation of the degradation model with asymmetric random effects. Then, the SN distribution is used as an example to analyze the second issue regarding the effect of model mis-specification on RUL prediction based on regression models and Wiener processes with different asymmetric random effects in theory. Finally, the parameter estimation and mis-specification analysis of degradation models with other asymmetric random effects are conducted through numerical examples and two case studies. The results demonstrate that the proposed two-step MLE method is satisfactory and the effect of asymmetry on RUL prediction is negligible. Therefore, there is no need to consider the asymmetry of random effects for RUL prediction.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"35 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139864583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Approximate parameter estimation and mis-specification analysis of degradation model with asymmetric random effects 具有非对称随机效应的退化模型的近似参数估计和错误规范分析

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x241227300

Shengjin Tang, Fengfei Wang, Xiaoyan Sun, Chuanqiang Yu, Xiaosheng Si

{"title":"Approximate parameter estimation and mis-specification analysis of degradation model with asymmetric random effects","authors":"Shengjin Tang, Fengfei Wang, Xiaoyan Sun, Chuanqiang Yu, Xiaosheng Si","doi":"10.1177/1748006x241227300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x241227300","url":null,"abstract":"Asymmetric distributions such as the skew-normal (SN) distribution have been used for modeling the unit-to-unit variation of the degradation rate of products, and its superiority for model fitting and lifetime estimation has been demonstrated in literature. However, there still exist two issues that need to be further studied. That is, how to simply estimate the parameters of the degradation model with asymmetric random effects and whether the asymmetry or skewness affects the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Driven by these two issues, the parameter estimation and RUL prediction of the degradation model with general random effects are first introduced and a two-step maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for parameter estimation is proposed, which could greatly simplify the parameter estimation of the degradation model with asymmetric random effects. Then, the SN distribution is used as an example to analyze the second issue regarding the effect of model mis-specification on RUL prediction based on regression models and Wiener processes with different asymmetric random effects in theory. Finally, the parameter estimation and mis-specification analysis of degradation models with other asymmetric random effects are conducted through numerical examples and two case studies. The results demonstrate that the proposed two-step MLE method is satisfactory and the effect of asymmetry on RUL prediction is negligible. Therefore, there is no need to consider the asymmetry of random effects for RUL prediction.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"18 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139804797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unsupervised incremental transfer learning with knowledge distillation for online remaining useful life prediction of rotating machinery 利用知识提炼的无监督增量迁移学习，在线预测旋转机械的剩余使用寿命

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231223777

Yunjia Liang, Wentao Mao, Chao Wu

{"title":"Unsupervised incremental transfer learning with knowledge distillation for online remaining useful life prediction of rotating machinery","authors":"Yunjia Liang, Wentao Mao, Chao Wu","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231223777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231223777","url":null,"abstract":"Online remaining useful life (RUL) prediction has been solved by deep transfer learning, but is still with challenges as follows: (1) Incomplete and unlabeled data under actual operation; (2) Condition monitoring data is streaming with unknown distribution; and (3) The distribution of degradation data is variable. To solve them, an unsupervised incremental transfer learning approach with knowledge distillation (KD) is proposed. First, a time series recursive prediction model is built to generate pseudo labels. Second, an online KD network is constructed to realize unsupervised domain adaptation. Finally, an incremental updating mechanism is designed in the online KD network for online RUL prediction with the pseudo labels. Comparative experiments on the IEEE PHM Challenge 2012 rolling bearing dataset show that the proposed method, being computationally inexpensive, can effectively achieve dynamic prediction only with sequentially-collected data, which can provide an effective RUL prediction solution for rotating machinery under an open environment.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"1 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139525164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Joint optimization of maintenance and spares inventory policies for a series system with multiple voting subsystems supported by protective devices 联合优化由保护装置支持的多表决子系统串联系统的维护和备件库存政策

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231219728

Ru Ning, Xiaoyue Wang, Xian Zhao, Siqi Wang

{"title":"Joint optimization of maintenance and spares inventory policies for a series system with multiple voting subsystems supported by protective devices","authors":"Ru Ning, Xiaoyue Wang, Xian Zhao, Siqi Wang","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231219728","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231219728","url":null,"abstract":"The joint optimization of maintenance and spares inventory policies is a momentous topic in engineering domain due to its benefit for improving the system reliability. Equipping systems with protective devices is another effective way to enhance system reliability which has aroused the research interest of scholars in recent years. However, the joint optimization problem of maintenance and spare parts inventory for systems with protective devices has not been attached importance. Therefore, this paper develops a joint optimization model of maintenance and spares inventory strategies for a series system with multiple voting subsystems supported by protective devices. Internal degradation and external shocks are taken into consideration simultaneously to cause the deterioration of the system and devices. A limited number of repairmen is considered, and ( s, S) inventory policy is adopted for protective devices as well as each type of units. By applying the Markov process imbedding approach, system steady probability and relevant reliability probability indices including system availability, spares availability, and repairmen availability are obtained. The objective of developed joint optimization model is to derive the optimal repairmen allocation and spares inventory policies such that the system availability can be maximized while meeting the cost requirement. Finally, numerical examples based on the automobile engine system with cooling systems are presented to validate the superiority of the proposed joint policy of maintenance and spares inventory.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"4 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139524772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bearing remaining useful life prediction with an improved CNN-LSTM network using an artificial gorilla troop optimization algorithm 使用人工猩猩部队优化算法的改进型 CNN-LSTM 网络预测轴承剩余使用寿命

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231222397

Yonghua Li, Zhe Chen, Chaoqun Hu, Xing Zhao

{"title":"Bearing remaining useful life prediction with an improved CNN-LSTM network using an artificial gorilla troop optimization algorithm","authors":"Yonghua Li, Zhe Chen, Chaoqun Hu, Xing Zhao","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231222397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231222397","url":null,"abstract":"To address the problem of reliance on a priori knowledge and difficult hyperparameter selection in feature fusion. The effect of different convolutional kernel sizes and filters on feature fusion is investigated firstly, based on which an artificial Gorilla Troops Optimizer (GTO) enhanced Convolutional Long-Short Term Memory Neural Network (CNN-LSTM) method for bearing lifetime prediction is suggested. The GTO algorithm was used to optimize hyperparameters such as the convolutional kernel size of CNN-LSTM, filters and pooling layer size, batch size, number of hidden layer neurons, and rate of learning with the goal of minimizing the mean squared error of the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. From the optimized CNN-LSTM network analyze the monitored performance degradation data, construct health indicators (HI) reflecting bearing degradation, and build the remaining bearing life prediction model. Typical life cycle data has been used for the validation of the proposed method. The results indicate that the health indicators have better trending and robustness, and leading to smaller errors in life prediction outcomes.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":" 910","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139617673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bi-objective flexible job shop scheduling on machines considering condition-based maintenance activities 考虑基于状态的维护活动的机床双目标灵活作业车间调度

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231205185

Liwei Li, Lei Deng, Baoping Tang, Fuqi Wang

引用次数: 0

Optimization of a preventive maintenance strategy for a product with limited repair times 为维修时间有限的产品优化预防性维护战略

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231218496

Yangli Yu, Chi Zhang

{"title":"Optimization of a preventive maintenance strategy for a product with limited repair times","authors":"Yangli Yu, Chi Zhang","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231218496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231218496","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a base warranty and replacement warranty strategy for repairable products. It should be emphasized that the product failure rate is low in the early stage of the base warranty. Therefore, in order to reduce the manufacturer’s maintenance cost, the manufacturer does not carry out preventive maintenance in the early stage of the base warranty, and carries out regular preventive maintenance in the later stage of the base warranty. At the same time, if the number of product failures in the base warranty exceeds the specified limit, the manufacturer must replace products for customers free of charge according to the warranty contract. After the product is replaced, if the number of product failures does not exceed the limit, the manufacturer will continue to provide customers with the remaining base warranty period of the original product, and the warranty period will continue to be extended for a period of time. By minimizing the expected cost rate, it is shown that the optimal maintenance policy for warranty products is unique. Finally, we give a numerical example and study the effects of periodic preventive maintenance and other relevant parameters on the optimal solution.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"21 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139531890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the effectiveness of standards application to threshold setting in vibration condition monitoring in industrial machinery 论工业机械振动状态监测中阈值设定标准应用的有效性

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231218363

Cristiana Delprete, Chiara Gastaldi

{"title":"On the effectiveness of standards application to threshold setting in vibration condition monitoring in industrial machinery","authors":"Cristiana Delprete, Chiara Gastaldi","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231218363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231218363","url":null,"abstract":"One of the goals of Industry 4.0 is to minimize unplanned maintenance emergencies and to leverage the efficiency of condition-based, just-in-time labor and repairs. Achieving the benefits of predictive maintenance via an Industry 4.0-style plant requires not only a data capture ecosystem, but also reference values to inform the monitoring system. Effectively estimating the values of monitoring thresholds is not an easy task, especially in those cases where the manufacturer does not provide data, or the machine is not new but the monitoring system has just been installed, therefore a measurement history is not yet available. The purpose of the present work is assess, through the analysis of two separate test cases, whether the monitoring thresholds suggested by different internationally recognized standards may serve as effective starting values in a vibration-based condition monitoring system. While general agreement on the order of magnitude of the thresholds is present in all cases, the differences between the standards allow for conclusions to be drawn on the most convenient format and processing technique to handle the data and to assess the most/least conservative standards. This paper constitutes, to the authors knowledge, the only systematic study in which the recommendations of all available international standards for vibration monitoring of non-rotating parts are applied to the same test cases and compared.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"53 32","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139532831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal termination strategies considering phase redundancy 考虑相位冗余的最佳终止策略

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1177/1748006x231222655

Jie Li, Rubing Bai, Shaoqian Jia, Haibo Zhao

{"title":"Optimal termination strategies considering phase redundancy","authors":"Jie Li, Rubing Bai, Shaoqian Jia, Haibo Zhao","doi":"10.1177/1748006x231222655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x231222655","url":null,"abstract":"Ensuring the survival of safety-critical systems, such as airplanes and submarines, is of utmost importance, even if it means incomplete task completion. System failures during task execution can have catastrophic consequences. Therefore, prioritizing system survival and temporarily suspending tasks are necessary measures to mitigate the risk of failure. Phase redundancy is a widely employed strategy to enhance the reliability of tasks. By incorporating task redundancy, it becomes possible to successfully accomplish the task even in the event of individual task failures. This study presents a novel condition-based task termination approach that leverages phase redundancy to strike a balance between task success and system survival. Specifically, the proposed approach dynamically terminates tasks based on specific condition information and task progress during each phase. To determine optimal termination thresholds, the study conducts iterative evaluations of task reliability and system survivability. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in enhancing the probability of system survival by maximizing overall success while prioritizing system safety through active consideration of the system condition and task progress when terminating tasks.","PeriodicalId":515204,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability","volume":"39 38","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139442573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0